2010 NFL Point Spread Picks Week 16

Pick 1: NY Giants +3
Pick 2: Indianapolis -3

Two games this week were teams have something to play for, the playoffs. Well, maybe Oakland although not mathematically out of it, slight chance of making it. Better for the Colts who need a must win to clinch or be in a better position in their division. The Packers-Giants game is huge for the Giants. Here again, the Packers are in a similar position as the Raiders, not completely out but pretty much. I expect the Giants to come out furious after last week's devastating loss.

Bring it it down a bit to save for the playoffs, using 20% of bankroll we designate approximately $200 to each game.

Next week there will be no picks.

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
NY GIANTS @ GREEN BAY	-3	3.9	6.9	64.5%
INDIANAPOLIS @ OAKLAND	3	17.6	14.6	60.5%
NY JETS @ CHICAGO	-1	-2.6	-1.6	58.0%
DETROIT @ MIAMI	-3.5	-1.3	2.2	56.6%
HOUSTON @ DENVER	3	6.9	3.9	55.8%
BALTIMORE @ CLEVELAND	3	10.5	7.5	55.6%
CAROLINA @ PITTSBURGH	-14.5	-16.9	-2.4	52.4%
MINNESOTA @ PHILADELPHIA	-14	-9.0	5.0	52.2%
NEW ORLEANS @ ATLANTA	-2.5	-0.7	1.8	51.6%
NEW ENGLAND @ BUFFALO	8	3.5	4.5	51.5%
SEATTLE @ TAMPA BAY	-6	-14.2	-8.2	50.0%
WASHINGTON @ JACKSONVILLE	-7	2.2	9.2	50.0%
SAN DIEGO @ CINCINNATI	7.5	23.9	16.4	49.1%
DALLAS @ ARIZONA	6.5	3.5	-3	48.1%
SAN FRANCISCO @ ST LOUIS	-2	6.2	8.2	48.0%
TENNESSEE @ KANSAS CITY	-5	-8.0	-3.0	47.5%

How to read the table:

• Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
• Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
• Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
• Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.

2010 NFL Point Spread Picks Week 15

Pick 1: Houston +1.5
Pick 2: Kansas City +1.5
Pick 3: Detroit +6
Pick 4: Washington +6

4 visiting underdogs this week. Again, the model is favoring visiting teams and coincidentally this week they are all underdogs. We got Houston, who in my opinion shouldn't even be underdogs against Tennessee. Did you see that comeback yesterday? Next we have KC. The Rams disappointed me last week. This is an important game for both teams, but KC is the stronger team. Detroit, now at the top of the ATS standings should give Tampa a scare. Lots of scoring will favor the Lions in this one. Finally, we have the Redskins. I don't like the Redskins and it seems that Dallas is playing relatively well since firing their head coach. But we have to stick to what we got, hopefully they keep it close as they did last week with Tampa.

Other notable picks include: Bears and Browns.

Again, using 25% of bankroll we designate approximately $115 to each game.

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
HOUSTON @ TENNESSEE	-1.5	4.8	6.3	65.4%
KANSAS CITY @ ST LOUIS	-1.5	2.3	3.8	63.7%
DETROIT @ TAMPA BAY	-6	1	7	62.8%
WASHINGTON @ DALLAS	-6	-1	5	60.8%
CLEVELAND @ CINCINNATI	-1.5	0.9	2.4	57.1%
CHICAGO @ MINNESOTA	-1.5	6.3	7.8	57.0%
DENVER @ OAKLAND	-6.5	-9.5	-3	54.8%
PHILADELPHIA @ NY GIANTS	-3	3	6	54.7%
JACKSONVILLE @ INDIANAPOLIS	-5	-7	-2	53.3%
ATLANTA @ SEATTLE	6	22.6	16.6	52.8%
ARIZONA @ CAROLINA	-2.5	1.1	3.6	52.1%
BUFFALO @ MIAMI	-5.5	-7	-1.5	52.0%
NY JETS @ PITTSBURGH	-6	-2.6	3.4	50.0%
NEW ORLEANS @ BALTIMORE	-1.5	-2.1	-0.6	50.0%
SAN FRANCISCO @ SAN DIEGO	-9	-10	-1	49.7%
GREEN BAY @ NEW ENGLAND	-10.5	-14	-3.5	48.7%

How to read the table:

• Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
• Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
• Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
• Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.

2010 NFL Point Spread Picks Week 14

Pick 1: Philadelphia -3 PUSH
Pick 2: Baltimore -3
Pick 3: St. Louis +9.5

Finally a good week! and much needed. This week again the model is favoring visiting teams. Last week we had Atlanta barely covering and the Rams covering on the road. (plus NE's @home embarrassment to the Jets, covered by way more than 3). This week, I have two strong teams on the road playing non-playoff contenders. Philadelphia goes to Dallas and takes care of business. Baltimore's defense gets two TDs and blows past 5-7 Houston. Finally, the Rams are underdogs by 9.5 in New Orleans. This team is at the top of the ATS Standings and I'm not sure why they are not been given a bit more credit. The Rams lose the game, but keep it close.

Other notable picks include: Giants, Bills.

Again, using 25% of bankroll we designate approximately 150 to each game.

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
PHILADELPHIA @ DALLAS	3	6.6	3.3	62.9%
BALTIMORE @ HOUSTON	3	6.7	3.7	60.5%
ST LOUIS @ NEW ORLEANS	-9.5	-5.4	4	60.1%
NY GIANTS @ MINNESOTA	1.5	3	1.5	59.2%
CLEVELAND @ BUFFALO	-1	-3.3	-2.3	58.0%
KANSAS CITY @ SAN DIEGO	-7	-5.0	2.0	56.1%
DENVER @ ARIZONA	4	-4	-8	53.4%
ATLANTA @ CAROLINA	7.5	14.6	7.1	52.4%
CINCINNATI @ PITTSBURGH	-9	-6.4	2.6	52.0%
INDIANAPOLIS @ TENNESSEE	3	8.6	5.6	51.1%
NEW ENGLAND @ CHICAGO	3	-3.2	-6.2	50.0%
MIAMI @ NY JETS	-6.5	-6	0.5	50.0%
TAMPA BAY @ WASHINGTON	2.5	-2.2	-4.7	49.6%
OAKLAND @ JACKSONVILLE	-4.5	-6	-1.5	49.1%
GREEN BAY @ DETROIT	7	5.4	-1.6	49.0%
SEATTLE @ SAN FRANCISCO	-4.5	-11.6	-7.1	47.5%

How to read the table:

• Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
• Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
• Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
• Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.

2010 NFL Point Spread Picks Week 13

Pick 1: New England -3
Pick 2: St. Louis -3
Pick 3: Atlanta -3

What the hell is going on? This weekend I spent hours trying to see if I was doing a mistake reading in the data, in the analysis, and basically in every line of code, nothing. The model simply has sucked this year. As you can tell, I'm very frustrated and disappointed, but I'm keeping my cool.

This week I like the experienced Patriots over the Jets, is it Monday yet? Atlanta and Roddy White scoring touchdowns on Tampa Bay's strong D. Finally, at the top of the ATS Standings, the Rams beating down on a smiling Derek Anderson.

The last few weeks (except for the last which we usually don't bet) and the playoffs are historically my best weeks. Assuming this, then my probability of winning is higher. Therefore, according to the formula, the weekly risk increases a bit more. Now taking it at 25% giving each game this week a wager of $120. Good luck, it wouldn't hurt.

Other notable picks include: Chicago, Oakland, and Houston.

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
NY JETS @ NEW ENGLAND	-3	-10.0	-6.5	64.3%
ST LOUIS @ ARIZONA	3	6.3	3.8	61.7%
ATLANTA @ TAMPA BAY	3	12.1	9.1	61.5%
CHICAGO @ DETROIT	3.5	13.4	9.9	58.5%
OAKLAND @ SAN DIEGO	-13	-10	3	58.3%
HOUSTON @ PHILADEPHIA	-9	-3	6	55.4%
WASHINGTON @ NY GIANTS	-7	-2	5	54.8%
CLEVELAND @ MIAMI	-4.5	-5.5	1.0	52.6%
JACKSONVILLE @ TENNESSEE	-3	-6.1	-3.1	52.1%
PITTSBURGH @ BALTIMORE	-3	1	4	50.7%
BUFFALO @ MINNESOTA	-6.5	1.1	7.6	50.0%
DALLAS @ INDIANAPOLIS	-5.5	-3	-2.5	50.0%
DENVER @ KANSAS CITY	-9	-10	-1	49.7%
SAN FRANCISCO @ GREEN BAY	-10	-16	-6	49.2%
NEW ORLEANS @ CINCINNATI	7	5.4	1.6	48.0%
CAROLINA @ SEATTLE	-6	-5	1	48.0%

How to read the table:

• Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
• Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
• Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
• Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.

2010 NFL Point Spread Picks Week 12

Pick 1: New England -7
Pick 2: Seattle +1
Pick 3: Philadelphia -3
Pick 4: New Orleans -3.5

Yey finally a winning week last week. Now lets start a streak. Two "NEW" picks for this Thursday that will make you enjoy your turkey even more. Model is finding big wins from big teams against the lesser. New Orleans routs Dallas and New England devours Detroit. Homedog Seattle defends its turf against KC, personally my toughest one to go with. Finally, Philly wins big in Soldier Field getting Cutler to pass 4 INT.

What do you think of buying half points? Maybe a good idea with two games currently at 3.5? At 20% bankroll gives us approximately $85 per game. Lets bring this home

Happy Thanksgiving! Here are the NFLpickles free point spread estimates for Week 12 of 2010.

UPDATE: I found the Eagles/Bears game at -3.

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
NEW ENGLAND @ DETROIT	7	11.5	4.5	62.2%
KANSAS CITY @ SEATTLE	1	-7.0	-8.0	61.4%
PHILADELPHIA @ CHICAGO	3	6	3	60.1%
NEW ORLEANS @ DALLAS	3.5	13.7	10.2	58.0%
MINNESOTA @ WASHINGTON	-2.5	7.0	9.5	56.4%
PITTSBURGH @ BUFFALO	6.5	9.4	2.9	52.6%
MIAMI @ OAKLAND	-3	14.2	17.2	51.6%
SAN DIEGO @ INDIANAPOLIS	-3	-0.6	2.4	51.6%
ST LOUIS @ DENVER	-4	-5.5	-1.5	51.4%
TENNESSEE @ HOUSTON	-5.5	-2	3.5	51.3%
CAROLINA @ CLEVELAND	-11	-15.9	-4.9	50.9%
TAMPA BAY @ BALTIMORE	-7.5	-11.6	-4.1	50.0%
JACKSONVILLE @ NY GIANTS	-7.5	-9.5	-2.5	49.9%
GREEN BAY @ ATLANTA	-2.5	5.3	7.8	48.7%
CINCINNATI @ NY JETS	-9	-13	-4	48.2%
SAN FRANCISCO @ ARIZONA	1	3.3	2.3	47.3%

How to read the table:

• Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
• Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
• Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
• Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.

2010 NFL Point Spread Picks Week 11

Pick 1: Green Bay -3
Pick 2: Buffalo +5.5
Pick 3: Denver +10

I like Green Bay beating down the broken Vikings, Buffalo putting a decent offensive show, and Denver keeping the game close at San Diego. Keeping the 20% bankroll use, gives us a bet of $105 per game. As always, interested in your plays.

Once again, here are the NFLpickles free point spread estimates for Week 11 of 2010.

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
GREEN BAY @ MINNESOTA	3	7.6	3.6	60.1%
BUFFALO @ CINCINNATI	-5.5	-3	2.5	57.0%
DENVER @ SAN DIEGO	-10	-6.4	3.6	57.1%
TAMPA BAY @ SAN FRANCISCO	-3	2.2	5.2	56.9%
BALTIMORE @ CAROLINA	10	14.5	4.5	54.5%
ATLANTA @ ST LOUIS	3	6.0	3.0	54.1%
ARIZONA @ KANSAS CITY	-8	-13.0	-5	53.8%
HOUSTON @ NY JETS	-7	-7.1	-0.1	53.8%
OAKLAND @ PITTSBURGH	-7	-7.3	-0.3	53.8%
WASHINGTON @ TENNESSEE	-7	-8.3	-1.3	51.1%
INDIANAPOLIS @ NEW ENGLAND	-3.5	-1.5	2.0	50.8%
CHICAGO @ MIAMI	-1	-3.9	-2.9	50.8%
DETROIT @ DALLAS	-6.5	-1.2	5.3	50.0%
SEATTLE @ NEW ORLEANS	-12	-7.2	4.8	48.0%
CLEVELAND @ JACKSONVILLE	-1.5	4,3	5.8	47.5%
NY GIANTS @ PHILADELPHIA	-3	-7.6	-4.6	47.4%

How to read the table:

• Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
• Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
• Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
• Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.

2010 NFL Point Spread Picks Week 10

Pick 1: Chicago +1
Pick 2: Philadelphia -3
Pick 3: Pittsburgh -4.5
Pick 4: Tennessee -1
Pick 5: Baltimore +1

This week we have 5 picks above the 57% threshold. For the first time, last week I made the exception to choose above 60 and lost two opportunities: TB and OAK. Never again. This week I personally don't like PIT or Baltimore and probably like Chicago 'cause I like the Bears. But this is what the model spita out, and believe it or not, I'm still confident we will come out winning this season.

Using 20% of bankroll for these week's picks, gives us $66/game. St. Louis came out strong underdog pick against SF, but given that both starting QBs are out, I will stay away from this game. Anything other significant injuries I may have missed?

Can you believe that Detroit is 8-1 and St. Louis is 6-2 ATS? Talking about picking a pony. To see current point spread standings click here.

Once again, here are the NFLpickles free point spread estimates for Week 10 of 2010.

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
MINNESOTA @ CHICAGO	1	-6.5	-7.5	63.4%
PHILADELPHIA @ WASHINGTON	3	6.7	4.7	60.3%
NEW ENGLAND @ PITTSBURGH	-4.5	-7	-2.5	58.0%
TENNESSEE @ MIAMI	1	2.3	1.3	57.1%
BALTIMORE @ ATLANTA	-1	1.3	2.3	57.1%
ST LOUIS @ SAN FRANCISCO	-6	4.5	10.5	NA
CINCINNATI @ INDIANAPOLIS	-7	-12.4	-5.4	52.2%
DETROIT @ BUFFALO	-3	-4.5	-1.5	52.2%
SEATTLE @ ARIZONA	-3	7.1	10.1	51.1%
KANSAS CITY @ DENVER	1	9.9	8.9	50.0%
CAROLINA @ TAMPA BAY	-6.5	-14.4	-7.9	50.0%
DALLAS @ NY GIANTS	-14	-15.1	-1,1	49.1%
NY JETS @ CLEVELAND	3	3.9	0.9	48.7%
HOUSTON @ JACKSONVILLE	-1.5	-3	-1.5	48.6%

How to read the table:

• Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
• Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
• Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
• Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.

Monday Night Football Pick Week 9

My carelessness was the reason for this week's unsuccessful picks. The Bears made the push which is part of the reason I'm adding a Monday Night Football pick this Sunday. But also, because after I heard that Hasselbeck wasn't playing, I didn't retire my pick. First, I should have stayed away from a game where the QB had a concussion, I always do. I also guess I need a better injury report. Any suggestions? The other reason for this pick is the difference in the estimate and the spread. The point spread is currently at 5.5 and the model is predicting at 21 for PIT. Although the confidence is below threshold at 53.5%, I'm going for it on 4th down.

Pick 3: PIT -5.5 +$125 (approx 8% of bankroll)

2010 NFL Point Spread Picks Week 9

Pick 1: Chicago -3 PUSH
Pick 2: Seattle +7

This week only two picks stood out to my struggling statistical models. Chicago is playing an 0-7 team on the road. Chicago's D is third in the league and given their expertise at taking the ball away, they could easily blowout this game without the help of its struggling offense (should they go for Moss? can they?). Seattle has a weak passing D, which could hurt. They're playing home and supposedly its one of the loudest places to play. One or two picks and they could keep this game close, and maybe take the win and keep their first place spot. Did anyone say homedog?

Again this week, we will use 20% of the bankroll for a total usage of $342.5. This places $171/game which we'll round to $175 per game. Lets take this money home this week, we need to get out of the red and jump back into green.

Other possibly good spread picks this week are Oakland and Tampa Bay. Once again, here are the NFLpickles free point spread estimates for Week 9 of 2010.

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
CHICAGO @ BUFFALO	3	7	4	66.4%
NY GIANTS @ SEATTLE	7	-11.0	-18	61.5%
TAMPA BAY @ ATLANTA	-8.5	-2.1	6.4	57.8%
KANSAS CITY @ OAKLAND	-2.5	-5.0	-2.5	57.0%
PITTSBURGH @ CINCINNATI	5	21.4	16.4	53.5%
DALLAS @ GREEN BAY	-8	-9.5	-1.5	51.1%
INDIANAPOLIS @ PHILADELPHIA	-3	8.0	11.0	50.5%
NEW ENGLAND @ CLEVELAND	4.5	4.9	0.4	50.0%
NEW ORLEANS @ CAROLINA	6.5	0.5	-6.0	50.0%
NY JETS @ DETROIT	4	3.0	-1.0	46.7%
MIAMI @ BALTIMORE	-5.5	3.2	8.7	49.2%
ARIZONA @ MINNESOTA	-9	-3.2	5.8	48.8%
SAN DIEGO @ HOUSTON	3	6	3	47.9%

How to read the table:

• Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
• Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
• Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
• Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.

2010 NFL Point Spread Picks Week 8

Pick 1: Miami 0
Pick 2: St Louis -3
Pick 3: KC -7.5
Pick 4: Tennessee +3.5
Pick 5: Pittsburgh 0

As we continue our slump this year, I keep reminding myself that this is a long-term strategy and not a get rich quick scheme. Yes, last year was nice because we started something like 9-2, but we fell. This year, the hopes are now that the great weeks are about to come.

This week, all home teams are favorites or its a straight pick (i.e. spread is zero). So, no home underdogs picks. I do like what I see in this week's picks. One thing that stood out to me was that the KC, TEN, and PIT games, the predicted spread is off by more than 10 points than the Vegas spread. Why do you think this is? Is NO overrated? KC being 5-1 ATS, are they still underrated against a weak Buffalo team? Detroit is favorite this week! I wonder when was the last time that happened. Being 5-1 ATS helps. Couple of games I would stay away is Dallas and Minnesota.

I continue my best effort to provide the best NFL spread picks data can answer and an optimal betting strategy to go along with it. Unfortunately, our bankroll has decreased 11% since we started so bumping the week's bankroll use to 20% leave us with approximately $360 for the week, $72 a game.

Once again, here are the NFLpickles free point spread estimates for Week 8 of 2010.

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
MIAMI @ CINCINNATI	0	6.1	6.1	61.4%
CAROLINA @ ST LOUIS	-3	-18.9	-15.9	59.0%
BUFFALO @ KANSAS CITY	-7.5	-21.4	-13.9	58.3%
TENNESSEE @ SAN DIEGO	-3.5	11.2	14.7	57.0%
PITTSBURGH @ NEW ORLEANS	0	15.7	15.7	56.9%
HOUSTON @ INDIANAPOLIS	-5.5	-3.4	2.1	55.6%
MINNESOTA @ NEW ENGLAND	-6	-5.3	0.7	55.0%
JACKSONVILLE @ DALLAS	-6.5	-11.7	-5.2	53.3%
TAMPA BAY @ ARIZONA	-3	-5.5	-2.5	52.9%
GREEN BAY @ NY JETS	-6	-8.2	-2.2	50.1%
SEATTLE @ OAKLAND	-2.5	-3.8	-1.3	45.0%
WASHINGTON @ DETROIT	-2.5	-3.5	-1	45.0%
SAN FRANCISCO - DENVER	0	-10.4	-10.4	off-London

How to read the table:

• Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
• Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
• Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
• Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.

2010 NFL Point Spread Picks Week 7

Pick 1: Pittsburgh -3
Pick 2: San Francisco -3
Pick 3: New York Giants +3

Last week over time games killed me. Although one ended up in a push, Green Bay couldn't hold on. Our homedog proved to be successful. Unfortunately, this week there are only two home dogs: Carolina and Miami one of which I'm picking the visiting team. Two other visiting teams include this week's NFL point spread. We need to get the ball rolling here, pronto. As in last week, we'll put $121 per game.

These three picks I have found so far are not crowd pleasers. On some places, the spread has shifted in the other direction and in others they're offering even or 105. We really need a winning week and bounce back to green. Good luck everyone!

Other noticeable picks are: Philadelphia and New England. Once again, here are the NFLpickles free point spread estimates for Week 7 of 2010.

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
PITTSBURGH @ MIAMI	3	16.4	13.4	59.9%
SAN FRANCISCO @ CAROLINA	3	7.3	4.3	58.5%
NY GIANTS @ DALLAS	-3	12.9	15.9	57.3%
PHILADELPHIA @ TENNESSEE	-3	0.8	3.2	55.8%
NEW ENGLAND @ SAN DIEGO	-3	1.7	4.7	55.1%
CLEVELAND @ NEW ORLEANS	-13	-8.0	5.0	54.0%
MINNESOTA @ GREEN BAY	-2.5	-4.8	-2.3	52.9%
WASHINGTON @ CHICAGO	-3	-1.7	1.3	50.8%
ARIZONA @ SEATTLE	-5.5	-16.6	-11.1	50.4%
JACKSONVILLE @ KANSAS CITY	-4.5	-3	1	50.2%
OAKLAND @ DENVER	-7	3.3	10.3	50.1%
ST LOUIS @ TAMPA BAY	-3	6.9	9.9	48.0%
BUFFALO @ BALTIMORE	-13	-15.4	-2.4	47.0%
CINCINNATI @ ATLANTA	-3.5	-5.2	-1.7	46.8%

How to read the table:

• Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
• Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
• Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
• Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.

2010 NFL Point Spread Picks Week 6

Pick 1: St. Louis +8.5
Pick 2: Green Bay -3.5
Pick 3: Baltimore +3 PUSH

NFL Week 5 Point Spread Review
High scoring games and a slew of yardage ended up in many surprising upsets. New Orleans a 7 point favorite got beat in Arizona. Other two heavy underdogs Oakland and Tennessee came up with big wins. The Giants were the underdog team who won by the biggest differential. Unbelievably so, the Lions put up their best offensive performances in years and brought down the Rams (a pick this week).

My picks went 2-3 for a 4% loss on investment. The good news is that all picks together went 64%, so we are definitely still in the game. We just need to jump right back this week with huge wins. Setting this week's bankroll budget at 19%, for the 3 games ahead of us, we'll invest 1915*.19/3 = $121 per game.

NFL Week 6 Point Spread Predictions
Home underdogs are everyone's favorites, especially when the margin is high. I'm not a believer in generalizing a betting strategy simply like that, but this week I like St.Louis jumping back from their loss and maybe coming up with a victory. Green Bay can score some points at home and if its defense holds (hopefully Clay Mathews plays), they can keep Miami near its season average of 16pts/game. Baltimore is a difficult pick since New England is scoring TDs like crazy. But I have to stick with my guns and forget about what I think is right.

Other noticeable picks are: Detroit, Tennessee, and Cleveland. Once again, here are the NFLpickles free point spread estimates for Week 6 of 2010.

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
SAN DIEGO @ ST LOUIS	8.5	-5.2	-13.7	61.5%
MIAMI @ GREEN BAY	-3.5	-10.3	-6.8	59.5%
BALTIMORE @ NEW ENGLAND	-3	2.9	5.9	58.9%
CLEVELAND @ PITTSBURGH	-13.5	-8.9	4.6	56.0%
DETROIT @ NY GIANTS	-10	-6.4	3.6	55.0%
TENNESSEE @ JACKSONVILLE	3	9.8	6.8	53.5%
DALLAS @ MINNESOTA	-1.5	0.6	2.1	52.1%
NEW ORLEANS @ TAMPA BAY	4.5	7.5	3.0	51.9%
SEATTLE @ CHICAGO	-7	-8.8	-1.8	51.1%
INDIANAPOLIS @ WASHINGTON	3	3.1	0.1	50.0%
ATLANTA @ PHILADELPHIA	-3	3.2	6.2	50.0%
NY JETS @ DENVER	3	4.1	1.1	50.0%
KANSAS CITY @ HOUSTON	-4.5	7	11.5	49.5%
OAKLAND @ SAN FRANCISCO	-6.5	10.0	16.5	46.3%

How to read the table:

• Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
• Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
• Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
• Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.

2010 NFL Point Spread Picks Week 5

Pick 1: Houston -3 -$72
Pick 2: Jacksonville -1 +$72
Pick 3: Green Bay -2.5 -$72
Pick 4: St. Louis +3 -$72
Pick 5: Arizona +7 +$72

This week we have 5 and possibly 6 picks. This is unusual, I usually get 3 or 4 picks per week. There are two picks with high confidence and four others which have good confidence numbers so we'll take them too. Chicago is the remaining game which we'll be waiting on news about Cutler and see what the spread is like once it becomes public, so for now no bet on the Bears game.

We continue using Kelly's Formula to compute the percentage of the bankroll to use each week. The result was 20%, but to play a bit conservatively during this first week of betting, we'll bring it down to 18% of bankroll(this year NFL Pickles bankroll starts at $2,000). $360/5=$72/game.

ATS Standings have been updated. Vote for the team you think will have the best record against the spread. After your vote, you will be able to see the results.

Here are the NFLpickles free point spread picks for Week 5 of the 2010 NFL season.

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
NY GIANTS @ HOUSTON	-3	-13.5	-10.5	62.8%
JACKSONVILLE @ BUFFALO	1	6	5	61.1%
ST LOUIS @ DETROIT	-3	6	9	58.7%
GREEN BAY @ WASHINGTON	2.5	5	2.5	57.1%
NEW ORLEANS @ ARIZONA	7	3	-4	56%
CHICAGO @ CAROLINA	2.5	-1.9	-4.4	55.0%
MINNESOTA @ NY JETS	-4	-6.1	-2.1	53.3%
SAN DIEGO @ OAKLAND	6	3	-3	52.8%
KANSAS CITY @ INDIANAPOLIS	-8.5	-6.9	1.6	51.7%
TENNESSEE @ DALLAS	-6.5	-3.7	2.8	50.0%
TAMPA BAY @ CINCINNATI	-6.5	-3	3.5	48.3%
PHILADELPHIA @ SAN FRANCISCO	-3	2.4	5.6	47.4%
ATLANTA @ CLEVELAND	3	3.4	0.4	46.2%
DENVER @ BALTIMORE	-7	-10.3	-3.3	45.3%

How to read the table:

• Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
• Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
• Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
• Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.

Making NFL Spread Picks in 2010

For those of you who haven't followed me in the past, here is a quick overview of what happens in this NFL point spread picks blog:

• Different from other handicappers, I don't claim I can predict at 57%-58% or that last week I was 4-0 so you can pay me money. I put myself out there for you. If it works we all win, if it doesn't, I have to go back to the drawing board or throw the towel.
• My theory is that you cannot go to a casino and consistently beat the house. With the NFL spread, the "price for the game" is set by people (or a collective group of people) and the price may not be necessarily as efficient as the stock market supposedly is.
• My statistical models to predict point spreads take into account many team-level statistics. I provide you each week with the model's point spread prediction, a confidence level, picks and a betting strategy that are kept track of in the top right table of this page.
• In a few situations, we deep dive into a game and analyze their offensive and defensive momentums as well as point spread stats and trends.

Your feedback is very important to me and other readers so feel free to comment. Many thanks.
Lets win!
Jaime

NFL Point Spread Season Starts This Week

The past four weeks, I have posted my "unofficial" NFL point spread picks. I use the first 4 weeks to get data and study how changes in rosters have affected the teams. Previously, I didn't post picks until week 5, but people have asked for them so I have put them out there. My week 1-4 picks have consistently been terrible (which makes me think to do the opposite :). This year has been no different.

The first 4 weeks have given me a 5-9-1 record for a lousy 36% ATS. I hope you have followed my suggestion and not used these picks. For new readers, I expect you to be dubious of my statistical models. If so, from now on, come by every week and see our progress. Hopefully this year will be as good as the previous 3.

I'm excited to start putting money where my blog is. A little bit of luck will help too. Good luck!

2010 NFL Point Spread Picks Week 4

Last week of unofficial picks. That means, starting next week we begin our official NFL pick betting strategy. Our goal is to continue to improve last year's 93% ROI. Every week, a number of games are selected and based on the current bankroll (now at $2K), we use Kelly's formula to determine what percentage of the bankroll to use each week. That money will then be distributed evenly to each game of the week. Stick with me, don't add/substract games, use my system and together we will beat the NFL point spread.

Please help! I want to know if you can help me determine which team will have the best record against the spread at the end of the regular season. Each week, you can put your vote HERE. It only takes a second, and if together we can determine early a conclusive winner, picking that team (or set of teams) might give us another great strategy. After your vote, you will see a link to view the results overall and by week. Thanks in advance.

As for point spread picks for week four, here are these week's system results:

Unofficial Pick 1: Seattle -1
Unofficial Pick 2: Chicago +4
Unofficial Pick 3: Houston -3
Unofficial Pick 4: Cincinnati -3

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
SEATTLE @ ST LOUIS	1	4.1	3.9	60.0%
CHICAGO @ NY GIANTS	-4	7.4	11.4	58.1%
HOUSTON @ OAKLAND	3	9.9	6.9	56.0%
CINCINNATI @ CLEVELAND	3	5.3	2.3	54.7%
INDIANAPOLIS @ JACKSONVILLE	7.5	13.9	6.4	55.0%
WASHINGTON @ PHILADELPHIA	-6	-8.2	-2.2	54.8%
SAN FRANCISCO @ ATLANTA	-7	-2.6	4.4	54.0%
ARIZONA @ SAN DIEGO	-8	-5.0	3.0	51.7%
BALTIMORE @ PITTSBURGH	-1.5	-3.0	-1.5	51.4%
DENVER @ TENNESSEE	-6.5	-2.1	4.6	50.0%
DETROIT @ GREEN BAY	-14.5	-20.6	-6.1	48.6%
CAROLINA @ NEW ORLEANS	-13.5	-21.6	-8.1	47.8%
NY JETS @ BUFFALO	5.5	2.5	-3.5	47.0%
NEW ENGLAND @ MIAMI	1	3	2.0	47.0%

How to read the table:

• Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
• Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
• Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
• Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.

2010 NFL Point Spread Picks Week 3

NFL Statistics Models are liking the big spreads this week. New England looks very tempting, Minnesota not quite until we see Favre do something or have Rice back, and Baltimore not really until they can show that they can score more than 10 points.

Pittsburgh can destroy Tampa, but having Ben out is bringing this spread down. Also Tampa is 2-0 against mediocre teams. Can the defense and the running game be enough to take this pick? I wouldn't take the risk and would put my money elsewhere.

NC is a disaster right now and although Cinci is 1-1, they are playing good enough to handle a mediocre team. Houston is a close one, and I usually do not like to take risks when the prediction is so close to the spread. Do you believe in momentum? At home? I don't, but it might work. This young Houston team will show its Texas counterpart that the stars are bright in Houston.

Unofficial Pick 1: New England -14
Unofficial Pick 2: Minnesota -10.5
Unofficial Pick 3: Cincinnati -3
Unofficial Pick 4: Houston -3

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
BUFFALO @ NEW ENGLAND	-14	-15.1	-1.1	58.1%
DETROIT @ MINNESOTA	-10.5	-22.5	-12.0	57.9%
PITTSBURGH @ TAMPA BAY	2.5	10.4	7.9	57.8%
CINCINNATI @ CAROLINA	3	6	3	57.1%
DALLAS @ HOUSTON	-3	-4.4	-1.4	56.3%
OAKLAND @ ARIZONA	-4	-15.3	-11.3	55.8%
TENNESSEE @ NY GIANTS	-3	1.8	4.8	55.3%
SAN FRANCISCO @ KANSAS CITY	2.5	12.0	9.5	54.8%
ATLANTA @ NEW ORLEANS	-4	-13.4	-9.4	51.7%
SAN DIEGO @ SEATTLE	5.5	6.9	1.4	51.4%
CLEVELAND @ BALTIMORE	-10.5	-17.1	-6.6	48.6%
NY JETS @ MIAMI	-2	0.4	2.4	46.8%
INDIANAPOLIS @ DENVER	5.5	2.8	-2.7	46.1%
GREEN BAY @ CHICAGO	3	6.1	3.1	45.0%
WASHINGTON @ ST LOUIS	3.5	8.0	4.5	45.0%
PHILADELPHIA @ JACKSONVILLE	3	-3.5	-6.5	45.0%

How to read the table:

• Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
• Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
• Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
• Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.

NFL ATS Standings 2010

Final point spread standings for the regular NFL season 2010.

NFL Team standings against the point spread - 2010.
Updated: 1/3/2011

Team	W	L	T	Pct
DETROIT	12	3	1	80%
ATLANTA	11	5	0	69%
NEW ENGLAND	10	5	1	67%
TAMPA BAY	9	5	2	64%
PITTSBURGH	10	6	0	63%
ST LOUIS	10	6	0	63%
WASHINGTON	8	5	3	62%
CHICAGO	9	6	1	60%
GREEN BAY	9	7	0	56%
JACKSONVILLE	9	7	0	56%
KANSAS CITY	9	7	0	56%
NY JETS	9	7	0	56%
BALTIMORE	8	7	1	53%
INDIANAPOLIS	8	7	1	53%
MIAMI	8	8	0	50%
OAKLAND	8	8	0	50%
PHILADELPHIA	8	8	0	50%
SAN DIEGO	8	8	0	50%
TENNESSEE	8	8	0	50%
BUFFALO	7	7	2	50%
CINCINNATI	7	9	0	44%
NEW ORLEANS	7	9	0	44%
NY GIANTS	7	9	0	44%
SAN FRANCISCO	7	9	0	44%
SEATTLE	7	9	0	44%
DALLAS	6	10	0	38%
DENVER	6	10	0	38%
CLEVELAND	5	10	1	33%
HOUSTON	5	10	1	33%
ARIZONA	5	11	0	31%
MINNESOTA	5	11	0	31%
CAROLINA	4	12	0	25%