2010 NFL Point Spread Picks Week 12

Pick 1: New England -7 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Seattle +1 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: Philadelphia -3 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 4: New Orleans -3.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick

Yey finally a winning week last week. Now lets start a streak. Two "NEW" picks for this Thursday that will make you enjoy your turkey even more. Model is finding big wins from big teams against the lesser. New Orleans routs Dallas and New England devours Detroit. Homedog Seattle defends its turf against KC, personally my toughest one to go with. Finally, Philly wins big in Soldier Field getting Cutler to pass 4 INT.

What do you think of buying half points? Maybe a good idea with two games currently at 3.5? At 20% bankroll gives us approximately $85 per game. Lets bring this home

Happy Thanksgiving! Here are the NFLpickles free point spread estimates for Week 12 of 2010.

UPDATE: I found the Eagles/Bears game at -3.
































































































































GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
NEW ENGLAND @ DETROIT711.54.562.2%
KANSAS CITY @ SEATTLE1-7.0-8.061.4%
PHILADELPHIA @ CHICAGO36360.1%
NEW ORLEANS @ DALLAS3.513.710.258.0%
MINNESOTA @ WASHINGTON-2.57.09.556.4%
PITTSBURGH @ BUFFALO6.59.42.952.6%
MIAMI @ OAKLAND-314.217.251.6%
SAN DIEGO @ INDIANAPOLIS-3-0.62.451.6%
ST LOUIS @ DENVER-4-5.5-1.551.4%
TENNESSEE @ HOUSTON-5.5-23.551.3%
CAROLINA @ CLEVELAND-11-15.9-4.950.9%
TAMPA BAY @ BALTIMORE-7.5-11.6-4.150.0%
JACKSONVILLE @ NY GIANTS-7.5-9.5-2.549.9%
GREEN BAY @ ATLANTA-2.55.37.848.7%
CINCINNATI @ NY JETS-9-13-448.2%
SAN FRANCISCO @ ARIZONA13.32.347.3%


How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.

3 comments:

Probable said...

4 picks so far: Jets -8.5, Eagles -3, Packers +2, Jaguars +7.5

So we agree on the Eagles. Interestingly, the Lions +7 just barely missed my confidence threshold, so I'm interested to see how that one plays out.

dtBy said...

Last week was a tough week for me, but a good week for NFL Pickles.. so it's bittersweet.

104 Pats/Lions OVER 50.5
225 Bucs +9
223 Panthers +10

This is the last week where I feel comfortable with making actionable picks.. so here's hoping!

Alex Jenny said...

http://www.the3-4.com/2010/11/nfl-predictions-against-spread-week-12.html
3-0 thus far this week, 20-9-1 the last two weeks against the spread