2016 NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 14

Pick 1: Carolina -1
Pick 2: Indianapolis -6
Pick 3: New York Jets +2.5
Pick 4*: Denver -1

Waiting on Sieman's status for Denver's pick, will update later this week. Thank you all for those who keep encouraging me. My patience and trust is at rock bottom.

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
SAN DIEGO @ CAROLINA -1 -6.5 -5.5 65.0%
HOUSTON @ INDIANAPOLIS -6 -9.9 -3.9 57.9%
NY JETS @ SAN FRANCISCO -2.5 5.1 7.6 56.4%
DENVER* @ TENNESSEE 1 7.9 6.9 57.1%
CHICAGO @ DETROIT -9 -3.9 5.1 55.5%
OAKLAND @ KANSAS CITY -3 -8.3 -5.3 54.5%
PITTSBURGH @ BUFFALO 2.5 -1.9 -4.4 54.0%
SEATTLE @ GREEN BAY 3 6.1 3.1 53.1%
DALLAS @ NY GIANTS 3.5 3.2 -0.3 52.0%
ARIZONA @ MIAMI -1.5 -0.8 0.7 51.6%
BALTIMORE @ NEW ENGLAND -7 -12.9 -5.9 50.0%
MINNESOTA @ JACKSONVILLE 3.5 1.5 2.0 50.0%
ATLANTA @ LOS ANGELES 6 11.3 5.3 50.0%
CINCINNATI @ CLEVELAND 6 5 1.0 49.0%
NEW ORLEANS @ TAMPA BAY -2.5 -7 -4.5 48.5%
WASHINGTON @ PHILADELPHIA 1 -3.0 -4.0 46.4%

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

2016 NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 13

Pick 1: Washington +2.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: New Orleans -5.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: Miami +3.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 4: Denver -4 correct NFL point spread pick

Another tough week last week. At this point, I've given up on a good record for the regular season but really hoping to turn it around and have a great ending like last year. If you recall, last year the turnaround happened in week 15 to then go 8-2 during the playoffs. Anyways, this week we're going with 3 road teams and a home favorite.

Staying at 18% of bankroll, each game gets a $350 bet. Lets turn this around now.

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
WASHINGTON @ ARIZONA -2.5 0.6 3.1 60.4%
DETROIT @ NEW ORLEANS -5.5 -10.8 -5.3 59.8%
MIAMI @ BALTIMORE -3.5 -0.4 3.1 58.1%
DENVER @ JACKSONVILLE 4 7.9 3.9 58.1%
CAROLINA @ SEATTLE -6.5 -12.2 -5.7 55.0%
NY GIANTS @ PITTSBURGH -6 -3.0 3.0 54.8%
DALLAS @ MINNESOTA 3.5 4.8 1.3 53.1%
TAMPA BAY @ SAN DIEGO -3.5 -5.5 -2.0 51.4%
HOUSTON @ GREEN BAY -6.5 -12.1 -5.6 51.0%
BUFFALO @ OAKLAND -3 -5.2 -2.2 50.0%
SAN FRANCISCO @ CHICAGO -1.5 1.9 3.4 50.0%
KANSAS CITY @ ATLANTA -3.5 -10.3 -9.8 49.5%
INDIANAPOLIS @ NY JETS 1 -1.8 -2.8 49.4%
LOS ANGELES @ NEW ENGLAND -13.5 -12.7 0.8 48.3%
PHILADELPHIA @ CINCINNATI 1 -4.4 -5.4 NA

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

2016 NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 12

Pick 1: Cleveland +7 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Atlanta -4.5 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: Minnesota +2.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 4: Los Angeles +7 incorrect NFL point spread pick

That's right, Cleveland even with Josh McCown. I would usually stay away from a bet when a key player is out but I do think this benefits Cleveland. There's a pretty high probability that they break their winless record this week so at least here we're hoping they win or lose by less than 7. The others are solid picks except for Los Angeles which I'm not super excited to bet against New Orleans at home.

Staying at 18% of bankroll, each game gets a $400 bet. Get some wins!

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
NY GIANTS @ CLEVELAND 7 -2.0 -9.0 61.7%
ARIZONA @ ATLANTA -4.5 -8.3 -3.8 59.1%
MINNESOTA @ DETROIT -2.5 2.8 5.3 58.4%
LOS ANGELES @ NEW ORLEANS -7 -4.0 3.0 57.8%
SAN FRANCISCO @ MIAMI -7.5 -6.1 1.4 54.8%
JACKSONVILLE @ BUFFALO -7 -5.0 2.0 54.8%
CINCINNATI @ BALTIMORE -4.5 0.1 4.6 53.8%
KANSAS CITY @ DENVER -3.5 -5.8 -2.3 52.4%
NEW ENGLAND @ NY JETS 8 10 2.0 51.1%
GREEN BAY @ PHILADELPHIA -3.5 -4.3 -0.8 50.7%
WASHINGTON @ DALLAS -7 -8.1 -1.1 50.0%
SEATTLE @ TAMPA BAY 5.5 4.6 -0.9 50.0%
CAROLINA @ OAKLAND -4 -5.7 -1.7 50.0%
SAN DIEGO @ HOUSTON -1 2.8 3.8 48.5%
PITTSBURGH @ INDIANAPOLIS 6 -1.6 -7.6 NA
TENNESSEE @ CHICAGO 3.5 -1.3 -4.8 NA

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

2016 NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 11

Pick 1: KC -7 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Dallas -7 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: New Orleans +3.5 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 4: Los Angeles +2.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick

At the top of the list we got two home favorites by 7. Expecting blowouts on both games and will get both games at -7. The NO/CAR is going to be close and NO has a good chance of stealing it from them even though Carolina's D is better than it was when they previously played. Finally the last one is being played in Mexico and so Los Angeles has a much bigger home advantage...lol. Just going with the numbers and avoiding emotions.

Staying at 18% of bankroll, each game gets a $400 bet. Get some wins!

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
TAMPA BAY @ KANSAS CITY -7 -10.3 -3.3 61.9%
BALTIMORE @ DALLAS -7 -11.4 -4.4 60.7%
NEW ORLEANS @ CAROLINA -3.5 0.4 3.9 58.4%
MIAMI @ LOS ANGELES 2.5 -2.3 -4.2 58.0%
ARIZONA @ MINNESOTA 1 -4.2 -5.2 54.3%
PITTSBURGH @ CLEVELAND 9 5.0 -4.0 53.7%
CHICAGO @ NY GIANTS -7.5 -4.8 2.7 50.8%
JACKSONVILLE @ DETROIT -6.5 -4.1 2.4 50.8%
PHILADELPHIA @ SEATTLE -6.5 -8.0 -1.5 50.0%
TENNESSEE @ INDIANAPOLIS -3 -2.9 0.1 50.0%
GREEN BAY @ WASHINGTON -2.5 -3.0 -0.5 50.0%
OAKLAND - HOUSTON 6 3 -3.0 49.1%
NEW ENGLAND @ SAN FRANCISCO 13 14.5 1.5 47.4%
BUFFALO @ CINCINNATI -3 -3.5 -0.5 46.5%

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

2016 NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 10

Pick 1: San Diego -4 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Denver +2.5 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: Philadelphia +1
Pick 4: Cincinnati +2.5 correct NFL point spread pick

I can't really talk. Still shocked about last week, what a week! Cubs win the World Series, Trump wins the White House and we go 0-4. Something's cursed! That sucked and it exposed my biggest fear, if the model really needs more weeks of data and only starts working later in the season. Idk, so we'll continue monitoring.

Staying at 18% of bankroll, each game gets a $400 bet. Happy gambling!

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
MIAMI @ SAN DIEGO -4 -8.8 -4.8 61.4%
DENVER @ NEW ORLEANS -2.5 -0.5 2.0 60.1%
ATLANTA @ PHILADELPHIA 1 -2.8 -3.8 59.4%
CINCINNATI @ NY GIANTS -2.5 -0.3 2.2 58.1%
KANSAS CITY @ CAROLINA -3 3.4 6.4 55.1%
CLEVELAND @ BALTIMORE -10 -7 3 54.7%
SAN FRANCISCO @ ARIZONA -13.5 -8.6 4.9 52.6%
CHICAGO @ TAMPA BAY 1 -0.5 1.5 50.0%
SEATTLE @ NEW ENGLAND -7.5 -7.7 -0.2 50.0%
GREEN BAY @ TENNESSEE 2.5 -2.1 -4.6 50.0%
HOUSTON @ JACKSONVILLE 1.5 1.4 -0.1 50.0%
MINNESOTA @ WASHINGTON -3 -3.1 -0.1 50.0%
DALLAS @ PITTSBURGH -2.5 -3.0 -0.5 49.7%
LOS ANGELES @ NY JETS -2 -3.8 -1.8 48.4%

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

2016 NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 9

Pick 1: KC -7 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Pittsburgh -2 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: NY Jets +3.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 4: Denver +1 incorrect NFL point spread pick

My computer finally broke. 8 years of crunching NFL data and two businesses later, my computer has passed away. Took me a while to get up to speed, still working on a few kinks, but at least I was able to transfer all data and models into another computer. Below are week 9 picks.

Staying at 18% of bankroll, each game gets a $460 bet. Go Cubs Go!...I wish you all successful sports investing this week!

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
JACKSONVILLE @ KANSAS CITY -7 -10.2 -3.2 62.7%
PITTSBURGH @ BALTIMORE 2 5.5 3.5 59.0%
NY JETS @ MIAMI -3.5 1.5 5.0 58.4%
DENVER @ OAKLAND -1 3.1 4.1 58.0%
DALLAS @ CLEVELAND 7.5 0.4 -7.1 55.6%
CAROLINA @ LOS ANGELES 3 4.9 1.9 54.3%
INDIANAPOLIS @ GREEN BAY -7.5 -13.8 -6.3 53.0%
BUFFALO @ SEATTLE -7 -7.6 -0.6 50.0%
NEW ORLEANS @ SAN FRANCISCO 4.5 4 -0.5 50.0%
PHILADELPHIA @ NY GIANTS -2.5 -4.1 -1.6 50.0%
TENNESSEE @ SAN DIEGO -5 -3.8 1.2 49.3%
DETROIT @ MINNESOTA -6 -8.8 -2.8 48.0%
ATLANTA @ TAMPA BAY 5 6.3 1.3 NA

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

2016 NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 8

Pick 1: Buffalo +6.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Detroit +2.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: Denver -4.5 correct NFL point spread pick

Another great week under our belts gets me pumped up for this week. I dislike betting against the top team according to ATS, but I also enjoy betting a homedog. Detroit should run and pass all over weakened Houston. Finally, Denver at home!

Increasing a bit more to 18% of bankroll, each game gets a $620 bet. Safe gambling!

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
NEW ENGLAND @ BUFFALO 6.5 4.7 -1.8 63.6%
DETROIT @ HOUSTON -2.5 2.5 5.0 59.7%
SAN DIEGO @ DENVER -4.5 -11.1 -6.6 58.8%
ARIZONA @ CAROLINA -2.5 -1.2 1.3 56.2%
GREEN BAY @ ATLANTA -3 2.2 5.2 56.0%
KANSAS CITY @ INDIANAPOLIS 3 5.8 2.8 55.3%
NY JETS @ CLEVELAND 3 7.8 4.8 53.1%
PHILADELPHIA @ DALLAS -4.5 4.1 8.6 51.6%
SEATTLE @ NEW ORLEANS 3 5 1.5 50.0%
OAKLAND @ TAMPA BAY 1 0.0 -1.0 50.0%
MINNESOTA @ CHICAGO 5.5 10.8 5.3 49.5%
JACKSONVILLE @ TENNESSEE -3 -3.5 -0.5 NA
CINCINNATI - WASHINGTON 3 -0.6 -3.6 NA

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

2016 NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 7

Pick 1: Cincinnati -9.5 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Oakland +1 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: Kansas City -6.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 4: Indianapolis +3 correct NFL point spread pick

Ok that was a better 2nd week of betting and we did get a bit lucky on the Rams pick. This week AJ Green will get 3 TDs and help my first pick (and fantasy football team). The Raiders bring back Murray and the Jaguars' streak will end with a team that finally wants to win. The Chiefs defense will come out and quiet Brees and win by more than a touchdown. Finally, Luck and Hilton are starting to sync and should score more against Tennessee.

Increasing a bit to 17% of bankroll, each game gets a $435 bet. Enjoy your bets!

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
CLEVELAND @ CINCINNATI -9.5 -15.8 -6.3 66.3%
OAKLAND @ JACKSONVILLE -1 1.6 2.6 65.7%
NEW ORLEANS @ KANSAS CITY -6.5 -10.6 -4.1 58.5%
INDIANAPOLIS @ TENNESSEE -3 1.5 4.5 58.1%
CHICAGO @ GREEN BAY -8 -12.6 -4.6 56.5%
HOUSTON @ DENVER -7.5 -6.4 1.1 54.8%
MINNESOTA @ PHILADELPHIA 2.5 4.5 2.0 53.2%
SAN DIEGO @ ATLANTA -6.5 -5.9 0.6 50.0%
TAMPA BAY @ SAN FRANCISCO 2 2.1 0.1 50.0%
NEW ENGLAND @ PITTSBURGH 7 6.1 -0.9 50.0%
BUFFALO @ MIAMI 3 9.3 6.3 49.7%
WASHINGTON @ DETROIT -1 -0.7 0.3 47.3%
SEATTLE @ ARIZONA -1.5 -9.9 -8.4 46.6%
BALTIMORE @ NY JETS -1 -7.6 -6.6 45.0%
NY GIANTS - LA RAMS 3 -5.6 -8.6 NA

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

2016 NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 6

Pick 1: Los Angeles +3.5 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Houston -3 PUSH
Pick 3: Denver -3.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 4: Buffalo -7 correct NFL point spread pick

Tough first pick given the Rams are last in offense and with lots of injuries on the defensive end. Given the spread is now over 3, this might be ok. The Colts beat the Bears last week, big deal. Houston defense will show up and tear them apart. When the Denver offense shows up (& w Trevor they might), there's no stopping them. The Chargers are making huge mistakes and the Broncos should take advantage and blowout this game. Finally, if Buffalo feeds McCoy and open the lanes for him they'll run all over the 49ers. Oh and is Kapernick starting for SF? If so then even better. Wait for 7 in case the spread creeps up or buy the half point if you can't get it at 7.

Again going with 15% of bankroll, each game gets a $375 bet. Happy gambling!

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
LOS ANGELES @ DETROIT -3.5 -0.9 2.6 61.1%
INDIANAPOLIS @ HOUSTON -3 -7.8 -4.8 60.6%
DENVER @ SAN DIEGO 3.5 6.1 2.6 58.2%
SAN FRANCISCO @ BUFFALO -7 -14.2 -7.2 57.0%
KANSAS CITY @ OAKLAND -1 5.0 6.0 55.9%
JACKSONVILLE @ CHICAGO -2.5 -5.9 -3.4 52.6%
CINCINNATI @ NEW ENGLAND -9.5 -8.1 1.4 50.0%
ATLANTA @ SEATTLE -6.5 -5.5 1.0 50.0%
NY JETS @ ARIZONA -8 -7.9 0.1 50.0%
CLEVELAND @ TENNESSEE -7 -6.7 0.3 50.0%
PHILADELPHIA @ WASHINGTON 3 -0.8 -3.8 49.7%
DALLAS @ GREEN BAY -4 -12.1 -8.1 48.0%
BALTIMORE @ NY GIANTS -3 -5.4 -2.4 39.6%
PITTSBURGH @ MIAMI 8 10.4 2.4 39.1%
CAROLINA @ NEW ORLEANS 3 6.0 3.0

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

2016 NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 5

Pick 1: New England -10.5 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Philadelphia -3.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: Minnesota -7 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 4: Denver -5 incorrect NFL point spread pick

NFL Pickles is back (one night late) and so is Tom Brady. We are starting by betting on the dynamic duo. If this team can blow out Houston without these two imagine what they will do to the Browns. Detroit has no passing game and their running game is struggling. Philadelphio is inspired by its rookie QB and will roll past the Lions. The Vikings defense is ranked second and it's going against a mediocre offense. The undefeated Vikings are still underrated and should cover the spread here. We're watching the MNF game spread shortly and will update if favorable.

Starting with 15% of bankroll, we're betting $375 on each game. Good luck!

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
NEW ENGLAND @ CLEVELAND 10.5 14.5 4.0 61.3%
PHILADELPHIA @ DETROIT 3.5 6.3 2.8 59.5%
HOUSTON @ MINNESOTA -7 -10.0 -3.0 58.7%
ATLANTA @ DENVER -5 -9.5 -4.5 57.0%
TENNESSEE @ MIAMI -3.5 2.1 5.6 56.0%
ARIZONA @ SAN FRANCISCO 3.5 7.0 2.5 55.7%
SAN DIEGO @ OAKLAND -3.5 -7.2 -3.7 55.1%
BUFFALO @ LOS ANGELES -2.5 -5.5 -3.0 55.1%
NY GIANTS @ GREEN BAY -7.5 -10.5 -3.0 54.5%
CHICAGO @ INDIANAPOLIS -4.5 -1.9 2.6 51.9%
NY JETS @ PITTSBURGH -7 2.1 9.1 51.6%
CINCINNATI @ DALLAS 1 12.8 11.8 50.0%
WASHINGTON @ BALTIMORE -4 0.4 4.4 48.7%
TAMPA BAY @ CAROLINA -12.6

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.