2011 Super Bowl Pick

Super Bowl Pick: New England -3

Thank you for the encouragement, persistence, and belief. This is the beauty of the internet. If I was alone at home doing this, I probably would've stopped but your motivation keeps me going. Ok I promised I wouldn't cry.

Seriously, I know I've had my ups and downs but the last two years have been a downer, especially this one. I sure hope it is like you say, just part of the whole process and not a trend. It reminds me a bit about the global warming debate.

In 2007, the Giants were underdogs by 11.5. In this post, we picked the Giants and of course were correct. This year is a bit different. The Patriots don't have a perfect record and the spread is only 3. Without looking at the spread, I thought that I didn't think Tom Brady was going to let this one escape again. There isn't pressure to be perfect, but revenge. I think the Patriots want it more. I'm glad the predictions favor this feeling too, but barely. Patriots by 7.

Oh and if you are playing Super Bowl squares in draft mode, check this post. It's a bit old, but I don't think the probabilities have changed much.

If you haven't seen it, here is the preview commercial for Volkswagen, funniest video I've seen in a while.

This week we'll play 15% or $250 for the super bowl.

Here are the NFLpickles free point spread picks for the Super Bowl of the 2011 NFL season.

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
NEW YORK - NEW ENGLAND	-3	-9.6	-6.6	62.4%

How to read the table:

• Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
• Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
• Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
• Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.
  

2011 Conference Playoffs Spread Picks

Pick 1: New England -7
Pick 2: San Francisco -2.5

Is anyone still paying attention to this? I sure now have lost all hope on the current model. For a second I thought that at least in the playoffs it was continuing to perform well, until last week.

For this year's conference playoff picks, the home teams prevail. I personally without using this would think that the Giants and Patriots would win and cover. Given their experience in these situations, I believe Flacco will choke and Manning will take over. But I have to stick with what the model says and believe a new team and QB will come out of the NFL to go to the Super Bowl.

This week we'll play 25% of whatever is left of the bankroll. Giving us $260 per game for a total of $520.

Here are the NFLpickles free point spread picks for the Conference playoffs of the 2011 NFL season.

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
BALTIMORE @ NEW ENGLAND	-7	-10	-3	65.6%
NY GIANTS @ SAN FRANCISCO	-2.5	-7.4	-4.9	59.9%

How to read the table:

• Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
• Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
• Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
• Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.
  

2011 Divisional Playoff Picks

Pick 1: Green Bay -8.5
Pick 2: New Orleans -3.5
Pick 3: New England -13.5
Pick 4: Baltimore -7.5

I had to wait until the playoffs to get my first winning week. Sure feels good and boy did I miss them. It even feels better that it is during the playoffs. The first week was full of excitement and am looking forward to the divisional playoffs next Saturday.

For this year's divisional playoffs nfl point spread picks, I'm surprised all four games came out significant. We're betting all favorite teams to beat the spread. Again this week, home teams are the majority with the exception of the Saints (who by the way had the best ATS record during the regular season). I wanted to stay away from the Giants/Packers game because the Giants are playing really well, but it is hard to bet against Rodgers and the gang. I like the New Orleans pick and New England (Tebow, you had a good run, it's time). The Baltimore/Houston game is going to be all defense and I'm uncertain if they can clear 7.5 points but we'll see.

This week again we'll play 25% of bankroll. Giving us $155 per game for a total of $620 (that's $110 more than last week).

Here are the NFLpickles free point spread picks for the Divisional playoffs of the 2011 NFL season.

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
NY GIANTS @ GREEN BAY	-8.5	-13.7	-5.2	65.1%
NEW ORLEANS @ SAN FRANCISCO	3.5	7	3.5	64.5%
DENVER @ NEW ENGLAND	-13.5	-17	-3.5	63.0%
HOUSTON @ BALTIMORE	-7.5	-10	-2.5	59.3%

How to read the table:

• Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
• Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
• Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
• Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.
  

2011 Wildcard Playoffs Picks

Pick 1: Denver +8.5
Pick 2: Houston -3
Pick 3: Giants -3

It's the playoffs! We've had the worst regular season in my 4 years of doing this live. Playoffs usually are good for us so I'm hoping this year won't be different.

For this year's wildcard playoffs nfl point spread picks, we have 3 home teams. First, Denver. I never bought into the Tebow fanfare when they won 5 in a row. Pittsburgh is very dangerous in the playoffs, but I think they'll give Steelers a run for their money. Houston's defense should be able to win this game comfortably. Finally, another experienced playoff team and Eli Manning will take care of the Falcons.

This week and for the rest of the playoffs, we'll play 25% of bankroll. Giving us $170 per game for a total of $510.

Here are the NFLpickles free point spread picks for the Wildcard playoffs of the 2011 NFL season.

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
PITTSBURGH @ DENVER	8.5	-2.0	-10.5	60.0%
CINCINNATI @ HOUSTON	-3	-4.9	-1.9	58.3%
ATLANTA @ NY GIANTS	-3	-5	-2	57.4%
DETROIT @ NEW ORLEANS	-10.5	-9.8	0.7	50.6%

How to read the table:

• Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
• Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
• Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
• Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.
  

2011 NFL Point Spread Picks Week 17

No Picks this Week

Picks and bets are never donefor week 17. It's always a crazy week. As much as I would like to try to make up for lost ground, I'll keep my composure and save the energy for the playoffs. Still, my computer NFL spread picks I always post and are listed below. Happy new year every one!

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
WASHINGTON @ PHILADELPHIA	-8.5	-2.4	6.1	66.7%
CHICAGO @ MINNESOTA	-1.5	3.2	4.7	63.3%
DALLAS @ NY GIANTS	-3	1.5	4.5	58.5%
SEATTLE @ ARIZONA	-3	0.9	3.9	58.5%
BUFFALO @ NEW ENGLAND	-10	-7.5	2.5	54.4%
TAMPA BAY @ ATLANTA	-11	-14	-3	53.3%
SAN DIEGO @ OAKLAND	-3	3	6	52.9%
SAN FRANCISCO @ ST LOUIS	10.5	18.5	8.0	52.0%
KANSAS CITY @ DENVER	-3	-4.9	-1.9	51.3%
CAROLINA @ NEW ORLEANS	-7.5	-14.1	-6.6	51.1%
NY JETS @ MIAMI	-3	-5	-2	50.4%
DETROIT @ GREEN BAY	3	-10.1	-13.1	50.4%
INDIANAPOLIS @ JACKSONVILLE	-3.5	-3	.5	50.4%
BALTIMORE @ CINCINNATI	2	-1	0.8	50.3%
TENNESSEE @ HOUSTON	2	7	5	50.1%
PITTSBURGH @ CLEVELAND	7	10	-3.0	50.0%

How to read the table:

• Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
• Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
• Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
• Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.
  

2011 NFL Point Spread Picks Week 16

Pick 1: Jets -3
Pick 2: 49ers -2 PUSH
Pick 3: Bengals -4.5

For the last week of the season, we post our picks. We then come back for the playoffs. Ideally, we have a good week this week to come to the playoffs with a sniff of hope.

This week we'll stay at 20% of bankroll. Giving us $115 per game for a total of $345.

Here are the NFLpickles free point spread picks for Week 16 of the 2011 NFL season.

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
NY GIANTS @ NY JETS	-3	-9.5	-6.5	72.5%
SAN FRANCISCO @ SEATTLE	2	4.5	2.5	65.3%
ARIZONA @ CINCINNATI	-4.5	-7	-3.5	64.3%
MINNESOTA @ WASHINGTON	-6	-7.6	-1.6	58.0%
DENVER @ BUFFALO	3	0.5	-2.5	54.5%
HOUSTON @ INDIANAPOLIS	6	14.5	8.5	52.9%
MIAMI @ NEW ENGLAND	-10	-15.6	-5.6	52.9%
JACKSONVILLE @ TENNESSEE	-8	-9.5	-1.5	52.0%
ST LOUIS @ PITTSBURGH	-13	-15.2	-2.2	51.9%
OAKLAND @ KANSAS CITY	-1.5	3.3	4.8	51.3%
CHICAGO @ GREEN BAY	-12	-11.3	0.7	50.6%
CLEVELAND @ BALTIMORE	-14	-14.6	-0.6	50.4%
SAN DIEGO @ DETROIT	-2.5	-3.1	-0.6	49.9%
PHILADELPHIA @ DALLAS	-3	-7.0	-4.0	49.0%
TAMPA BAY @ CAROLINA	-7	-10	-3	48.3%

How to read the table:

• Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
• Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
• Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
• Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.
  

2011 NFL Point Spread Picks Week 15

Pick 1: Green Bay -13.5
Pick 2: Cincinnati -7 PUSH
Pick 3: Tennessee -6.5
Pick 3: Detroit -1 PUSH

This week four favorite teams on the road are picked. Sorry for the late post, almost didn't get it in. Glad I did. I'm banking this week on these strong teams beating the crap out of these home teams that have no chance to be in the playoffs.

This week we'll stay at 20% of bankroll. Giving us $100 per game for a total of $400.

Here are the NFLpickles free point spread picks for Week 15 of the 2011 NFL season.

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
GREEN BAY @ KANSAS CITY	13.5	21.0	7.5	60.4%
CINCINNATI @ ST LOUIS	7	14.4	7.4	59.5%
TENNESSEE @ INDIANAPOLIS	6.5	13.6	7.1	58.5%
DETROIT @ OAKLAND	1	7	6	58.3%
WASHINGTON @ NY GIANTS	-6.5	-4.5	2.0	55.6%
NEW ORLEANS @ MINNESOTA	7.5	11.5	4.0	52.0%
SEATTLE @ CHICAGO	-3.5	-5.1	-1.6	52.0%
NEW ENGLAND @ DENVER	7.5	4.5	-3.0	52.0%
NY JETS @ PHILADELPHIA	-3	4.4	7.4	51.3%
BALTIMORE @ SAN DIEGO	2.5	3.9	1.4	50.7%
MIAMI @ BUFFALO	-1.5	-9.6	-8.1	50.1%
CLEVELAND @ ARIZONA	-6.5	-6.0	0.5	50.1%
PITTSBURGH @ SAN FRANCISCO	-3	3	6	50%
CAROLINA @ HOUSTON	-6	-9.9	-3.9	49.5%

How to read the table:

• Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
• Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
• Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
• Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.
  

2011 NFL Point Spread Picks Week 14

Pick 1: New Orleans -3.5
Pick 2: St Louis +9.5
Pick 3: San Francisco -4
Pick 4: Houston +3

As we continue to sink this ship, I think less about these picks and whether they are good or not. The only thing I'm thinking about is what can I learn this year that I would be able to apply statistically into the algorithm.

If I think about these picks, I would probably stay away from Houston because all the injuries and St Louis because they've covered very few times this year. But most times that I say things like that the opposite happens. We'll stick with these 4 visiting teams and bet they will all win big and give us, believe it or not, our first winning week.

This week we'll up at 20% of bankroll. Giving us $100 per game for a total of $400.

Here are the NFLpickles free point spread picks for Week 14 of the 2011 NFL season.

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
NEW ORLEANS @ TENNESSEE	3.5	7	3.5	59.9%
ST LOUIS @ SEATTLE	-9.5	-8	1.5	58.5%
SAN FRANCISCO @ ARIZONA	4	7.6	3.6	58.3%
HOUSTON @ CINCINNATI	-3	2.3	5.3	58.1%
OAKLAND @ GREEN BAY	-11.5	-8.2	3.3	56.5%
MINNESOTA @ DETROIT	-10	-14	-4	54.4%
KANSAS CITY @ NY JETS	-10.5	-16	-5.5	54.4%
TAMPA BAY @ JACKSONVILLE	2.5	-3	-5.5	53.9%
PHILADELPHIA @ MIAMI	-3	-5	-2	52.8%
CHICAGO @ DENVER	-3.5	-6	-2.5	52.8%
NEW ENGLAND @ WASHINGTON	8	12.5	4.5	52.0%
INDIANAPOLIS @ BALTIMORE	-16.5	-18.7	-2.2	51.9%
BUFFALO @ SAN DIEGO	-7	0.3	7.3	51.4%
ATLANTA @ CAROLINA	3	4.9	1.9	50.0%
NY GIANTS @ DALLAS	-3.5	3	6.5	49.0%

How to read the table:

• Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
• Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
• Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
• Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.
  

2011 NFL Point Spread Picks Week 13

Pick 1: Buffalo -1.5
Pick 2: Dallas -4.5
Pick 3: NY Jets -3

I am very disappointed with the results this year. Although a friend told me there is still a lot of football left, and he's right, by week 13 I should've seen signs of success. In other years, we were already up in the 20-30% ROI range. The model might need to be revisited in the off-season, but at this point all I can do is sit back and hope for a great success in the coming weeks. Stay tuned!

This week we'll stay at 18% of bankroll. Giving us $145 per game for a total of $435.

Here are the NFLpickles free point spread picks for Week 13 of the 2011 NFL season.

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
TENNESSEE @ BUFFALO	-1.5	-3.2	-1.7	60.0%
DALLAS @ ARIZONA	4.5	7.9	3.4	58.7%
NY JETS @ WASHINGTON	3	7.1	4.1	58.7%
PHILADELPHIA @ SEATTLE	3	0.9	-2.1	52.5%
SAN DIEGO @ JACKSONVILLE	3	1.7	-1.3	52.5%
OAKLAND @ MIAMI	-3	8.2	11.2	52.3%
CAROLINA @ TAMPA BAY	-3	-4.9	-1.9	52.0%
KANSAS CITY @ CHICAGO	-7	-9.3	-2.3	52.0%
DENVER @ MINNESOTA	-1.5	0.6	2.1	52.0%
DETROIT @ NEW ORLEANS	-9	-7.1	1.9	51.9%
CINCINNATI @ PITTSBURGH	-6.5	4.5	11.0	51.8%
GREEN BAY @ NY GIANTS	6.5	17.0	10.5	51.4%
ST LOUIS @ SAN FRANCISCO	-13	-10	3	50.5%
INDIANAPOLIS @ NEW ENGLAND	-20	-28.9	-8.9	49.5%
ATLANTA @ HOUSTON	2.5	5	2.5	49.3%
BALTIMORE @ CLEVELAND	6.5	10	3.5	47.0%

How to read the table:

• Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
• Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
• Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
• Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.
  

2011 NFL Point Spread Picks Week 12

Pick 1: Detroit +6
Pick 2: Miami +7
Pick 3: San Francisco +3
Pick 3: Atlanta -9.5

This blows. Down 20% starting the forth quarter, hail mary? Noooo, be smart. One perfect week and this can turn around in a hurry. As always, I like my picks this week so that's probably a bad thing. I'm glad pick #1 will be watched while eating Turkey. Miami is on a roll, any metrics for momentum? I feel I'm jumping the SF boat a bit too late. They are perfect against the spread (see Standings) so that would have to continue this streak, but I like that they are underdogs. Finally, the Atlanta picks is one they should cover and finish strong, MIN is the worst team in the league.

This week we'll stay at 18% of bankroll. Giving us $110 per game for a total of $440.

Here are the NFLpickles free point spread picks for Week 12 of the 2011 NFL season.

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
GREEN BAY @ DETROIT	6	2.8	-3.2	59.6%
MIAMI @ DALLAS	-7	-4	3	59.1%
SAN FRANCISCO @ BALTIMORE	-3	7.1	10.1	58.5%
MINNESOTA @ ATLANTA	-9.5	-12.6	-3.1	58.4%
NY GIANTS @ NEW ORLEANS	-7	-14.7	-7.7	52.6%
PITTSBURGH @ KANSAS CITY	10.5	6.5	-4.0	52.5%
BUFFALO @ NY JETS	-8	-6	2	51.4%
WASHINGTON @ SEATTLE	-4	-6.2	-2.2	51.4%
CLEVELAND @ CINCINNATI	-7.5	-9.8	-2.3	51.0%
HOUSTON @ JACKSONVILLE	3	8.6	5.6	50.0%
NEW ENGLAND @ PHILADELPHIA	3	10.0	7.0	50.0%
CAROLINA @ INDIANAPOLIS	3.5	9.1	5.6	50.0%
TAMPA BAY @ TENNESSEE	-3	-5	-2	49.5%
ARIZONA @ ST LOUIS	-3	-5	-2	49.0%
DENVER @ SAN DIEGO	-6.5	-2.1	4.4	48.3%
CHICAGO @ OAKLAND	-5	-4.1	0.9	NA

How to read the table:

• Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
• Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
• Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
• Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.