NFL Machine Learning Picks - Week 11

Huuuge week last week. Official picks covered 66% plus TNF, SNF, and MNF all covered as discussed in the podcast. The models are getting some juicy data and winning is now more dependent on keeping track of injuries and ensuring we're not going with a back up QB or a depleted offense or defense.

I do the research so you don't have to. I give my model results, their confidence, ATS trends and analysis of selected games so you can win money and understand the science behind it. For 12 years, I've shared NFL picks with you in a very transparent way. It's hard work and if you subscribe to Rokfin you get all NFL picks and help support the technological advances I want to create for you. Cool thing about Rokfin is that the value of the whole network is shared with the creators themselves. If other handicappers join, it'd give them: 1) higher lifetime value per subscriber and 2) a better handicapping product since users would get access to ALL for one low monthly price of $9.99. Help the cause, I'd appreciate it. 

Free pick of the week!

Pittsburgh +3
Lock this up. We've gone 7-1 ATS this season on Thursday Night Football. James Conner practiced full on Tuesday which would be a huge plus. The Steelers defense is #4 in DVOA and well balanced in pass (4) and rush (11). Mayfield is in a close second place to the most INT. Mike Tomlin likes primetime and they are 6-2 ATS in last 8 games and one of those losses was against the Patriots. Not enough points against this hyped up Browns team who just came off a win. 

Unlock access to winning week 11 NFL picks based off our machine learning point spread situational models and 12 years experience. Let's make money together...

NFL Machine Learning Picks - Week 10

Not a great week last week, the black cat Monday night saved us from total disaster. As the season continues more relevant data is fed and the accuracy increases. This week should be good based on what we've learned from last week. A couple of quick learnings:

1. Need to adjust the weight on strength of schedule. New England lost because they hadn't seen an offense like that in any of the previous games

2. No more Mexico or London game bets, period. 

This week we have some obvious picks and others that are a game time decision depending on injury reports. 

You can access ALL my picks exclusively on Rokfin. For a super low $9.99/mo subscription, you also get a lot of other cool combat sports a content. 

Free pick of the week!

Cincinnati +10 
A rookie QB getting his shot at becoming a starting QB for the NFL! You understand my models aren't great when there is a key player missing, but in this case we can assume this is an upgrade from Dalton who has thrown more interceptions than everyone but Mayfield. Also, home dogs by more than 7 coming off a bye are 69% (24 games) against the spread. Baltimore's offense was pretty impressive last game, but that also makes me think there's a recency bias. A divisional game like this should be closer, give me the home dog!

Arizona +4.5 correct NFL point spread pick
A Kyler Murray is looking better every week. All my models are pointing at an upset here with good confidence of 59% in this situation. Tampa has been on the road for the last 5 games which could have depleted them. 

Minnesota +3 correct NFL point spread pick
Dallas on short rest after an ugly win. The Giants were in that game the whole time until the black cat showed up. Dallas has one of the weakest strength of schedules and their defense isn't great agains the run. Dalvin Cook to do some damage here. All the Vikings need to do is bring a black cat.

Honorable mentions:

Oakland - models are mixed. Since 2000, homedogs by less than 3 in a divisional game are 59% ATS (55 games). Oakland has also one of the top 3 toughest schedules so far and their offense is 5 in DVOA! Can you believe that?

Here are the week 10 point spread machine learning predictions and their respective confidence on all NFL games this week. 

Game Vegas Line Estimate Diff Confidence
BALTIMORE @ CINCINNATI 10.0 8.9 -1.1 59.7
ARIZONA @ TAMPA BAY -4.5 1.0 5.5 59.4
MINNESOTA @ DALLAS -3.0 2.0 5.0 57.6
LA CHARGERS @ OAKLAND 1.0 -2.0 -3.0 55.6
SEATTLE @ SAN FRANCISCO -6.0 2.0 8.0 55.1
BUFFALO @ CLEVELAND -3.0 2.0 5.0 53.6
DETROIT @ CHICAGO -3.0 2.0 5.0 53.6
ATLANTA @ NEW ORLEANS -13.0 -8.0 5.0 50.3
CAROLINA @ GREEN BAY -5.0 1.0 6.0 47.4
LA RAMS @ PITTSBURGH 3.5 0.9 -2.6 39.7
NY GIANTS @ NY JETS 2.0 -3.0 -5.0 45.5
MIAMI @ INDIANAPOLIS -10.5 -13.6 -3.1 NA

NFL Machine Learning Picks - Week 9

What another great week! We hit 2 of 3 picks again for our 3rd straight winning week. The free pick last week, New England, covered nicely for everyone. We were also on the right side of all 3 night games (TNF, SNF, and MNF). This is incredible. The models have never performed this well this early and I have no indication that they're not going to continue to outperform the spread. 

New England -3.5 
Again? Yes! The Patriots are one of four teams at the top of the standings with 6-2 ATS this year. The spread can't catch up to this defense. It's an anomaly, a black swan therefore an opportunity. After covering 13 and 16.5 now they are only 3 point favorites against an offense that hasn't seen a good defense yet. Why? bc Baltimore can run the ball or bc they're coming off a bye? idc. The Patriots are 61% ATS on SNF since 2005 while Baltimore is 42%. 3.5 is a trap that my models don't fall into. 65% accurate when my models are slightly more for the visiting team at 3.5. Patriots win by a TD #PatriotsNation

Jacksonville +2 
Houston is banged up after rough win against the Raiders (who are still horrible imo). JJ Watt is out, team captain. Huge loss for the Texans. This means that Minshew with this 13TD and 2 INT could have another great game. Heavy money came in after this spread opened at 3. It's still going down so catch at before it's a pick.

Dallas -7 correct NFL point spread pick
You know I love betting the favorites (when they're not as heavy yet dominate). That's what this Dallas offense is and after a bye I expect nothing else. The Giants will get crushed, it's our Eagles / Bills game of last week. Models are estimating the Cowboys to win by 2 TD and in these situations it is accurate close to 59%. The Cowboys are 5-0 ATS against the Giants in the last 5 games. Catch this at -7 seems also that it could only go above 7.

Here are the week 9 point spread machine learning predictions and their respective confidence on all NFL games this week. 

Game Vegas Line Estimate Diff Confidence
NEW ENGLAND @ BALTIMORE 3.5 15.0 11.5 65.0
JACKSONVILLE - HOUSTON -1.5 6.8 8.3 62.5
DALLAS @ NY GIANTS 7.0 13.8 6.8 58.7
NY JETS @ MIAMI 3.0 -11.3 -14.3 55.6
TAMPA BAY @ SEATTLE -6.5 -3.4 3.1 55.1
TENNESSEE @ CAROLINA -3.5 -4.2 -0.7 54.2
MINNESOTA @ KANSAS CITY -2.0 -2.9 -0.9 54.2
DETROIT @ OAKLAND -2.0 11.4 13.4 47.1
SAN FRANCISCO @ ARIZONA 9.5 17.4 7.9 42.3
WASHINGTON @ BUFFALO -10.0 -9.1 0.9 42.3
CHICAGO @ PHILADELPHIA -5.0 -1.5 3.5 41.9
CLEVELAND @ DENVER 2.0 -2.1 -4.1 38.5
GREEN BAY @ LA CHARGERS 3.5 4.2 0.7 36.0

NFL Machine Learning Picks - Week 8

Another HUUUGE week last week. Nailed 3 of 4 locks ATS on week 7! Love getting the blowouts right. Going to our 3rd winning week in a row here are my winning picks of the week.   

You can access ALL my picks exclusively on Rokfin. For a super low $9.99/mo subscription, you also get a lot of other cool sports content. 

Gotta be really careful this week, lots of injuries. My data is junk for at least 3 games I'm staying away from (KC, NO, and ATL), a wild guess if the QBs are playing and how their teams will fare with or without them.

There are 3 solid opportunities that I'd like you to put some dough on this week. Diversify your portfolio and money manage it via Kelly's criterion, duh. Lets be smart here and get positive ROI big. One pick is free and the other two by subscribing to my channel on Rokfin.

NEW ENGLAND -13 correct NFL point spread pick
Since 2015, the Patriots are 13-3 ATS at home with a spread bigger than 10. Since 2000, the Patriots are 60% ATS across all games. Why would anyone one fade them if they keep covering? My model has them winning by 17 with enough confidence to make it a play. Cleveland's defense is on the bottom 3rd which is just enough for me to think that the unpredictable Patriots offense should have a good game. Combine that with the best defense in the league (is it the best ever? who's the captain?) and we got another cover. I think two TDs is a good cover here. Let's go! #PatriotsNation

PHILADELPHIA +2 correct NFL point spread pick
The models are capturing here a smaller difference in defense/offensive stats than what this spread warrants. Also, the strength of schedule is helping the Eagles cause. Take away the Patriots (the Bills only loss) and the Bills have played pretty much the worst teams in the league. Coming off a nasty loss, Philadephia could be showing recency bias. Big difference between percent of bets and money where PHI is getting 68% of the money but only 32% of the bets. Seems like the sharps know something as well. All signs points to #EaglesFly #dog

Carolina is on a tear. Is the spread not catching up or thinking they will regress to the mean? The line move half a point but the majority of the money is also on the Panthers. Models confident at 59% and all pointing in the same direction. Both teams are 4-2 ATS this year but Carolina's two losses were at home and with Cam Newton. The Panthers keep rolling probably but at least keep it close. Take the dog here (but with spread, I never win moneyline). 

Here are week 8 picks based off our machine learning point spread situational models and 12 years experience. Let's make money together...

Game Vegas Line Estimate Diff Confidence
PHILADELPHIA @ BUFFALO -1.5 -2.0 -0.5 62.5
CAROLINA @ SAN FRANCISCO -5.5 -4.5 1.0 59.1
CLEVELAND @ NEW ENGLAND -13.0 -17.5 -4.5 58.5
MIAMI @ PITTSBURGH -14.5 -13.0 1.5 55.8
WASHINGTON @ MINNESOTA -16.0 -2.0 14.0 54.5
NY JETS @ JACKSONVILLE -6.0 -11.4 -5.4 54.4
OAKLAND @ HOUSTON -6.5 -5.0 1.5 51.0
DENVER @ INDIANAPOLIS -6.0 -4.1 1.9 51.0
TAMPA BAY @ TENNESSEE -2.5 -5.9 -3.4 50.0
NY GIANTS @ DETROIT -7.0 -12.7 -5.7 42.4
CINCINNATI @ LA RAMS -12.5 -11.6 0.9 42.3
LA CHARGERS @ CHICAGO -4.0 -0.9 3.1 41.9
SEATTLE @ ATLANTA 7.0 -0.0 -7.0 NA
GREEN BAY @ KANSAS CITY 4.5 -6.0 -10.5 NA
ARIZONA @ NEW ORLEANS -9.5 -5.0 4.5 NA

NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 7

What a great week last week! We hit 2 of 3 picks plus #MNF Detroit +3.5 and Jets +8. We plan to go bigger this week with research and results. 

You can access ALL my picks exclusively on Rokfin. For a super low $9.99/mo subscription, you also get a lot of other cool sports content. Make sure to hit ENDORSE on channel though :)

KANSAS CITY -3 correct NFL point spread pick 
KC by 3 against Denver? Tyreek Hill is in and all their offensive weapons. We've been 3-0 this year on TNF. There's a bias that TNF should be a close game, not this one.

Gotta love that half a point in there! You'd might be thinking that Jacksonville is great and Minshew is doing a great job. They are in a way but did you know they have the same ATS record (3-3) this year? AJ Green and Dennard could be back this week. My models are picking up something off here. 90% of the money is going to Jacksonville, looks like a good contrarian play to me. Homedogs are barking, roof roof!

INDIANAPOLIS -1 correct NFL point spread pick
Both teams beat KC so what else should we look at? Houston has been able to score more points but struggled against Jacksonville and Carolina. They're coming off pretty banged up from the KC game. Home favorites in Division this year are 6-12 ATS so is that enough of a trend? No. I'd bet on the reverse because previous years aggregated that's like 52% ATS. Not a trend I'd bet but the regression to the mean is due. Models heavy here on the home team. 

LA RAMS -3 correct NFL point spread pick
Visiting team who is slightly favorite, my model can detect those opportunities like a radar can pick up on an propeller plane. Atlanta is junk. They have allowed over 20 points in every game and are 1-4 ATS. Rams are finding their strengths, Gurley being out might be a good thing. Seems like a good spot for them to get a win after two close tough losses.

Here were week 7 picks based off our machine learning point spread situational models and 12 years experience. Let's make money together...

Game Vegas Line Estimate Diff Confidence
KANSAS CITY @ DENVER 3.5 7 3.5 61.7
JACKSONVILLE @ CINCINNATI 3.5 -12.9 -16.4 60.6
HOUSTON @ INDIANAPOLIS -1.0 -8.4 -7.4 58.3
LA RAMS @ ATLANTA 3.0 10.2 7.2 58.1
NEW ENGLAND @ NY JETS 10.0 7.6 -2.4 55.3
MINNESOTA @ DETROIT 1.0 -4.0 -5.0 53.8
SAN FRANCISCO @ WASHINGTON 10.0 -2.6 -12.6 52.7
LA CHARGERS @ TENNESSEE -2.0 -2.5 0.5 51.6
MIAMI @ BUFFALO -16.5 -11.2 5.3 50.3
ARIZONA @ NY GIANTS -3.0 0.7 3.7 50.1
BALTIMORE @ SEATTLE -3.5 8.0 11.5 47.1
OAKLAND @ GREEN BAY -6.0 -11.2 -5.2 46.4
PHILADELPHIA @ DALLAS -3.0 10.5 13.5 47.1
NEW ORLEANS @ CHICAGO -3.5 -6.1 -2.6 NA

NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 6

We're going to go 3-0 this week! You can access all my picks and short podcast exclusively on Rokfin. You can access them there plus you get a bunch of other awesome sports content (e.g. MMA prediction picks) with one $9.99/mo subscription. Make sure to endorse my channel though :)

SEATTLE -1.5 correct NFL point spread pick

Models are picking up on the Cleveland hype. I hear a lot they got talent, but with 4 TD and 9 INT, it doesn't look like Baker is forming into a great NFL QB. Russel Wilson on the other hand, is a Super Bowl winner. Cleveland coming off short rest and Seattle from TNF makes it even sweeter. Need one good trend? How about this one: Seattle when visiting as favorite is 62% in last 15 games. Give me the much better team and coach.

NEW ENGLAND -16.5 correct NFL point spread pick

UGH, 16 and a half points. But hey these big spreads have been covered 4 of 5 times this year. Also, on Thursdays the favorites by more than 10 cover the spread 80% of the time in the last 20 games! The Giants without Barkley or Gallman bringing a 3rd string RB will probably have to depend on Daniel Jones who's got 4TD on 3 INT and tanking. Give me the dominant team, money!


Why isn't this 7 or even 10? Seems like an over-reaction to Mahomes ankle, last week loss to the Colts and last week's Houston w53 point win against the Falcon. Lots of inefficiencies put together. Tyreek Hill might be back. At home, these Chiefs bounce back for a must win. Money!

Here are the outputs of the NFL almost patent pending machine learning situational analytics and confidence percentages for week 6.

Game Vegas Line Estimate Diff Confidence
SEATTLE @ CLEVELAND 1.5 9.4 7.9 63.6
NY GIANTS @ NEW ENGLAND -16.5 -24.3 -8.1 59.3
HOUSTON @ KANSAS CITY -4.5 -17.2 -12.7 58.8
DALLAS @ NY JETS 8.5 -0.2 -8.7 56.6
WASHINGTON @ MIAMI 3.5 -6.9 -10.4 55.6
SAN FRANCISCO @ LA RAMS -3.5 6.3 9.8 54.9
TAMPA BAY @ CAROLINA -2.0 -4.4 -2.3 52.5
CINCINNATI @ BALTIMORE -11.5 -5.2 6.3 51.3
NEW ORLEANS @ JACKSONVILLE -1.0 3.8 4.8 50.3
PHILADELPHIA @ MINNESOTA -3.0 10.5 13.4 49.1
TENNESSEE @ DENVER -2.5 9.6 12.1 49.1
ATLANTA @ ARIZONA 2.5 2.3 -0.25 48.8
DETROIT @ GREEN BAY -4.5 8.1 12.6 44.4

NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 5

All official 2019 picks are going up exclusively on my Rokfin channel. This is to support what I do just as you'd support your favorite friend doing you a favor. In this case give you winning picks based on data science. It's time to crank it up and make some money!

Models are starting to pick up on trends happening this year. Using 20 years of situational data to understand when models best perform, NFLpickles matches these to current games to find those with highest situational probability of success.

You can access all my picks for the whole season for $9.99 a month. And you can cancel (or start) at any time. That's only a total of $50 for the 2019 NFL Season including Playoffs and Super Bowl (I'm 11-1 ATS in last 12 Super Bowls). I personally bet a whole lot more than that so verifying my picks with an experienced PhD data scientist isn't a bad idea.


With $9.99 per month you also get access not only to my picks but to other expert picks. There's also a good library of great MMA content from fighters like Ben Askren and Jordan Burroughs that you might find interesting. It's a growing network too so who knows which other sites would bundle their subscription services with this one. Go learn about the RAE token.

Here are week 5 NFLpickles machine learning situational optimization picks:

LA RAMS +1.5 
correct NFL point spread pick

Not a big fan of betting the visiting team on TNF since home team is 56% ATS when favorite. On the other hand, in divisional games visitors are 55% ATS in last 10 years (140 games) when home is favorite by less than 3. Rams lost by 15 last week and Rams not been favorite here seems like an over correction to last week. #inefficiencyFound


Is Chase Daniel that different from Trubisky? IDK, but he's never really gotten a chance to play. When he has, well he has a 70% completion rate and more touchdowns than interceptions. That's all the Bears defense needs (#1 in turnovers and allowing 11.2 points per game) to take over. Favorites are 61%ATS on neutral sites.

Check this out, when the line is equal to 6.5 for home team, they cover a whopping 64% ATS (87 games sample). Add a divisional constraint and it jumps close to 70. Melvin Gordon is back and the Chargers are going to be pumped against a very weak Denver defense.


Garnder Minshew secretly has 7 TDs to 1 INT. Check this stat out, Visitors are 58% ATS (on 132 games) when the spread is exactly 3.5. I'm not ready to bet on Kyle Allen. The Jaguars almost top 10 rushing defense should somewhat control McCaffrey, keep the game close and cover or have another upset last minute miracle.

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
LA RAMS @ SEATTLE -1.5 5.0 6.5 68.7
OAKLAND - CHICAGO -5.0 -11.1 -6.1 63.0
DENVER @ LA CHARGERS -6.5 -9.0 -2.5 59.0
JACKSONVILLE @ CAROLINA -3.5 -3.0 0.5 58.5
TAMPA BAY @ NEW ORLEANS -3.5 -9.1 -5.7 57.5
GREEN BAY @ DALLAS -3.5 -2.6 0.9 55.5
NEW ENGLAND @ WASHINGTON 15.5 -6.7 -22.2 54.6
BALTIMORE @ PITTSBURGH 3.5 5.5 2.0 54.1
CLEVELAND @ SAN FRANCISCO -3.5 -8.5 -4.9 50.0
ATLANTA @ HOUSTON -5.0 6.4 11.3 49.4
BUFFALO @ TENNESSEE -3.0 -0.9 2.1 49.2
NY JETS @ PHILADELPHIA -13.5 -13.4 0.1 48.3
MINNESOTA @ NY GIANTS 5.5 3.6 -1.9 45.6
ARIZONA @ CINCINNATI -3.5 -14.5 -10.9 NA

NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 4

The first 3 weeks have been as expected, close to breaking even. Although I'll admit to unsafely betting some of these games, I recommend my readers to stay away at least from using these picks. The reason being mostly that my models look at team level data, so on new seasons or when a key player is out (e.g. Big Ben, Brees, Newton, etc.), then the analytics are more about understanding how many points is that key player worth. That's one I haven't done, but it'd be interesting to see. Regardless, it's alway fun to look at the results and put some thoughts behind it.

Indianapolis -7
Indi beat Tennesse by 2 and Atlanta by 3 and now they're at home. You know I love some strong vs, weak that's undervalued.

Patriots -7.5
More of strong vs. weak. Patriots are 59% ATS since 2000 (100+ games) against teams in their division. 3-0 Buffalo over valued against the best Defense? Wait what? The Patriots have Tom Brady and the best defense? Get the f&*$ out of here, all in.

Jaguars +3
Denver sucks and their defense is especially horrible. I'm not betting Joe Flacco will throw a Hail Mary.

Giants -3
I was going to remove this game bc of Eli. But after seeing Washington on MNF, I wanted to fade them again especially on short rest. Is Daniel Jones for real? idk but he's getting the hype. Let's go!

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
OAKLAND @ INDIANAPOLIS -6.5 -10.6 -4.06 61.90
NEW ENGLAND @ BUFFALO 7.5 9.0 1.51 60.00
JACKSONVILLE @ DENVER -3.0 1.3 4.34 58.57
WASHINGTON @ NY GIANTS -3.0 -9.8 -6.78 58.25
TENNESSEE @ ATLANTA -4.0 -3.6 0.38 58.09
CINCINNATI @ PITTSBURGH -3.5 -6.0 -2.48 52.54
TAMPA BAY @ LA RAMS -9.0 -13.0 -4.00 52.50
KANSAS CITY @ DETROIT 6.5 -1.20 -7.75 52.50
LA CHARGERS @ MIAMI 15.0 10.4 -4.62 51.42
SEATTLE @ ARIZONA 5.0 1.2 -3.83 50.82
MINNESOTA @ CHICAGO -2.0 1.5 3.54 50.00
PHILADELPHIA @ GREEN BAY -4.0 5.6 9.58 46.15
CLEVELAND @ BALTIMORE -6.5 -5.9 0.64 45.91
CAROLINA @ HOUSTON -4.0 4.2 8.17 NA
DALLAS @ NEW ORLEANS 2.5 -4.9 -7.44 NA

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 3

Great week last week overall! As I said in my previous post, the next few picks will be available here but from week 5 forward they're going to Rokfin. Here's the podcast between me and high stakes poker player Mr. Augustine.

There are 4 games this week with backup QBs. There is not one analysis I can do to figure it out. So I'm going to give you the qualitative view for a few of these games in case you want to sprinkle them (bad idea!).

- The Chargers D will get to DeShaun Watson many times.
- Carolina bounces back with a win over Arizona. Sharps agree not the public.
- Keep fading the Bears, especially if Trubisky is road favorite
- The Rams are the better team and 3 points relies too much on Cleveland hype.
- The backup QB for PIT Mason Rudolph grinds according to ESPN. He'll figure out a way to win.
- Mariotta as a road favorite on TNF vs Mineshew who isn't that bad. Play contrarian go with JAC.

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
HOUSTON @ LA CHARGERS -3 -13.2 -10.20 62.18
CAROLINA @ ARIZONA -1.5 1.0 2.46 61.00
CHICAGO @ WASHINGTON 4 -7.2 -11.24 59.36
LA RAMS @ CLEVELAND 3 7.5 4.55 58.15
BALTIMORE @ KANSAS CITY -6.5 3.0 9.48 54.67
OAKLAND @ MINNESOTA -8.5 -10.0 -1.46 54.90
ATLANTA @ INDIANAPOLIS -1.5 3.2 4.74 53.85
DENVER @ GREEN BAY -7.5 -3.8 3.73 53.62
DETROIT @ PHILADELPHIA -6.5 -2.5 3.97 53.62
NY JETS @ NEW ENGLAND -23 -9.9 13.14 53.14
MIAMI @ DALLAS -21.5 -9.3 12.16 53.14
CINCINNATI @ BUFFALO -6 -3.1 2.88 50.65
NY GIANTS @ TAMPA BAY -6.5 -10.5 -3.99 49.15
TENNESSEE @ JACKSONVILLE 1.5 -3.9 -5.40 48.67
NEW ORLEANS @ SEATTLE -4 -4.1 -0.09 NA

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

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