NFL Machine Learning Picks - Week 14

Admittedly, it was a disappointing week last week. The "locks" didn't perform as well, yet all other picks (honorable mentions and others) did perform. The Rams (free pick of the week) was an easy pick and so money. But what was I thinking to bet against Russel Wilson during primetime? He's the captain of the Captain's class, can't do that. As much as I enjoy betting the Patriots, they are on timeout until I see that offense do something. We did have BUF, CIN, and SF (risky) clear the ATS and Atlanta as bad as they looked didn't cover by a point.

As for this week, I'm excited about the picks the models arrived at. Although my models use offensive and defensive stats, it's educational to look at the difference DVOA metrics for each game. That's why now in every analysis, you will see me make a case or double down on say a weak rushing D against a strong rushing offense.  

As it's been throughout the season, my full results and analysis are available on the NFL Pickles Rokfin channel. I gave you the Rams last week, here's this week's pick and it's TNF. If you make money off it, come support me at Rokfin, it's only $9.99 and you can cancel at any time. This week we go 3-0. Let's goooooo!

Free pick of the week!

Dallas -3
For the first time this year, the Bears are homedogs. Part of that it's probably because they are dead last in the ATS Standings sitting at 3-9 ATS (2-4 at home). This Chicago defense is ranked 11th because it hasn't been consistent. It's overrated by the public. Now it's facing one of the toughest offenses in the NFL (Dallas #2 offense in DVOA). The Cowboys just had a tough loss (as predicted here) against Buffalo which signals recency bias. Before that, they only scored 9 points against the Patriots. They have scored lots more against good defenses like the Eagles and the Vikings. Their defense isn't that good, but their weakness is mostly against the pass. That means the Bears will depend heavily on Trubisky. Do I need to say more? I love the Bears, they're my team, but Trubisky isn't the guy and just like Cutler, they will stick to their horrible decision for years to come. My models have the Cowboys winning by a TD and covering the spread with 60% confidence.

Unlock access to winning week 14 NFL picks based off our machine learning point spread situational models and 12 years experience. Let's make money together...

NFL Machine Learning Picks - Week 13

Another winning week! This is my best year so far and as you know my specialty is the playoffs and the Super Bowl. Let's keep it rolling! I'm confident on these 4 winning NFL spread picks for week 13. All stars align. The machine learning models, the QB, strength of schedule, ATS trends. We go through it all.

For 12 years, I've shared NFL picks with you in a very transparent way. It's hard work and if you subscribe to Rokfin you get all NFL picks selected for the week. Stick to the plan and let's make some money. Also make sure you follow my Twitter account where I post updates on the picks depending on game time decisions. 

Free pick of the week!

Rams -3 correct NFL point spread pick
Glad that data science can't get biased by one miserable game. The Rams coming off a humiliating loss against imo the best team in the NFL right now. With all their wide receivers back in the lineup, this offense should look much better than last game.
 - Arizona's D is ranked #30 in DVOA.
 - Huge recency bias here
 - Rams D at #8 but has performed as top 5 in many games

 - 41% of the tickets but 59% of the money on Rams. That crosses the 50% mark.

New England -3  (SNF) 
Although New England's offense looks horrible, they find a way to win (and cover). Glad we stayed away last week, when in the last second a field goal would've covered. This Houston team doesn't have many weapons so I expect Belichick and their D to neutralize the Watson Hopkins combo.
 - 62% of the money. Sharps betting Houston but not enough to cross the 60% line.
 - Patriots are 62% ATS on SNF since 2009. Why over think it?
 - Houston's run offense ranked #14 is not ranked high enough to take this D. 

Minnesota +3 (MNF) 
Again, all machine learning models have the Vikings winning this game. Everyone is talking about Russel Wilson for MVP, but there's been plenty of times where he's missed big opportunities. 

 - These offenses have similar rankings but there is a big advantage for the Vikings D.
 - Sharps on Vikings with 33% tickets and 62% of the money.
 - Keeping an eye on Thielen. Kirk Cousins says he's playing, but we'll wait and see.
 - The Vikings off a bye week.

Honorable mentions:

Buffalo +7 (Thanksgiving) correct NFL point spread pick
Both teams have faired pretty well against the spread (7-3-1 and 7-4 for Buffalo and Dallas respectively). 60% of the tickets and 71% of the money on Buffalo, a good sign that the sharps see this as a closer game and a potential win for the Bills. Machine learning models all pointing at Buffalo. The only big issue with this game and a good reason why I'll probably stay away is that Buffalo has had the easiest schedule of all the teams in the NFL. 

Atlanta +7 
Man I don't know if the models are weighting their last game more heavily or what, but besides my models and their confidence, everything else pushes me away from betting this game. The DVOA rankings in both defense and offense aren't even close. Maybe a contrarian angle? 80% of the tickets and money on the Saints. This is recipe for danger.

Cincinnati +3.5 correct NFL point spread pick
Not sure if to bet for or against the fact that Sam Darnold got wasted after last week's win. Models like Cincinnati but another change in QB would violate my rule to be in this game. It's probably the one game Cinci will win all season and Dalton isn't that bad so they cover. But I also don't want any part of this game.

San Francisco +6 correct NFL point spread pick
I can see why my models like the 49ers. Yes, the Ravens are red hot and they look unstoppable. But with the 49ers offense now being healthy, it's a tricky thing. I don't want to bet against Lamar Jackson, but this could be their let down spot. 

GameVegas LineEstimateDiffConfidence
LA RAMS @ ARIZONA3.06.63.660.0
NEW ORLEANS @ ATLANTA7.01.2-5.856.6
NY JETS @ CINCINNATI*3.5-9.4-12.955.4
GREEN BAY @ NY GIANTS6.52.5-4.053.0
WASHINGTON @ CAROLINA-10.0-5.44.652.6
OAKLAND @ KANSAS CITY-10.0-12.7-2.750.2
PHILADELPHIA @ MIAMI9.07.5-1.550.0
LA CHARGERS @ DENVER1.05.94.940.0

NFL Machine Learning Picks - Week 12

Another good week last week going 3-2 ATS. This week we have 5 great picks to diversify our portfolio. Tracking injuries and when the models are a viable resource has been a challenge, but with your help and our researchers we've done a good job at staying away from these games.

Indianapolis +3.5 (TNF) correct NFL point spread pick
All models pointing towards the Colts. The most confident of them at 61% but averaging 55%. TY Hilton as of this writing is questionable and Marlon Mack is out. Depending on TY Hilton's status, this would turn from a sprinkle of entertainment bet to an official pick. Check out this trend, Home Favorites after losing by more than 20 points are 44% ATS in 68 games. Fade the Texans, get some money.

Denver +4  
Again, all models pointing at a Broncos win by 3. There's 60% of the tickets going to the Bills but only 40% of the money. When this crosses the 50% mark, I really like going with the sharps. Although the biggest situational confidence is at 56% which is usually a no bet for me, the sharps angle took me over. Other angles: 
 - Fade Josh Allen after a great week against the Dolphins
 - Von Miller and the gang will apply heavy pressure on Allen
 - Buffalo ranks on the bottom 5 in DVOA against the run which is great for Lindsay

Atlanta -4  
What's going on in Atlanta? The streak continues this week as no one will be able to defend Julio Jones. Models pretty strong at 58% confidence and all estimating the final score to finish by a TD. Interception machine Winston will continue to slide and give this Falcons a chance to actually take the division (they're 2-0 so far). 

Seattle -1.5 correct NFL point spread pick
The spread opened at 3 and it has been bet down to 1.5 and at 1 in some places. So bet it quick!This team was able to score points against the 2nd best defense in the league and Tyler Locket will suit up for this one. Philly's offense isn't great. Couple of other key trends:
 - Seattle coming off a bye with Wilson is 5-2 ATS
 - Seattle is #4 on offense (stronger passing game) while Philly's defense is good but struggles a bit more against the pass.
 - Jordan Howard and Nelson Agholor are likely out. 
- Captain Class argument: Russel Wilson has played in 123 consecutive games with a winning record in all his 8 seasons. Carson Wentz isn't horrible at 16TD/4 INT but no match for Wilson's 23 TD and 2 INT. Let's go!

Baltimore -3.5 correct NFL point spread pick
Scott and I talked about this game on our podcast. I also tweeted the reasons why take Baltimore on this game. Now we know that was easy money.

Game Vegas Line Estimate Diff Confidence
INDIANAPOLIS @ HOUSTON -3.5 4.5 8.0 61.9
SEATTLE @ PHILADELPHIA -1.5 4.4 5.9 58.2
TAMPA BAY @ ATLANTA -4.5 -7.7 -3.2 58.1
DENVER @ BUFFALO -4.0 1.6 5.6 55.6
OAKLAND @ NY JETS 3.0 -1.3 -4.3 55.1
BALTIMORE @ LA RAMS 3.5 3.9 0.4 54.8
DALLAS @ NEW ENGLAND -6.5 -8.4 1.9 52.7
CAROLINA @ NEW ORLEANS -9.5 -0.9 8.6 51.7
JACKSONVILLE @ TENNESSEE -3.0 1.9 4.9 50.0
MIAMI @ CLEVELAND -10.5 -12.7 -2.2 46.9
NY GIANTS @ CHICAGO -6.0 -8.8 -2.8 NA
GREEN BAY @ SAN FRANCISCO -3.0 -3.1 -0.1 NA/td>

NFL Machine Learning Picks - Week 11

Huuuge week last week. Official picks covered 66% plus TNF, SNF, and MNF all covered as discussed in the podcast. The models are getting some juicy data and winning is now more dependent on keeping track of injuries and ensuring we're not going with a back up QB or a depleted offense or defense.

Carolina -5.5 
McCaffrey is a beast! Although the Atlanta defense is somewhat decent against the run (but 30 DVOA against the pass) it will be no match for McCaffrey. Recency bias towards Atlanta coming off that win against the Saints is in play here. Devonta Freeman and Austin Hooper are out for the Falcons. Carolina 5-2 ATS in last 7 games and all models pointing at the same direction with over 60% confidence. Lock it up.

Pittsburgh +3 
Why are the Steelers the underdogs in this game? The #4 defense according to DVOA against the QB with the second to most interceptions. Mike Tomlin performs well on primetime to keep his job. The Steelers are 6-2 ATS in primetime since 2016. 

New England -3.5 correct NFL point spread pick
The Patriots coming off a bye are 14-5 with Belichick. New England is still the #1 defense even after their last game against the Ravens. Philadelphia can beat bad teams: Redskins, Bills, Jets but lose against good teams: Vikings and Cowboys. Brady with rest can't look worse than he has. Don't bet against them. 

Arizona +11.5 correct NFL point spread pick
This will be a game time decision based on George Kittle's status. The 49ers are banged up and coming off short rest after a looong game. Kyler Murray will run like or better than Russell Wilson did to win the game. Can't have so many points with Garappolo and a horrible kicker. Arizona to stay at the top of the ATS Standings.

Detroit -7 correct NFL point spread pick
Fade the backup QBs. The Cowboys offense is hot, the models are pointing at a 7 point spread and that's with Stafford. Let's roll.

Here are the week 11 point spread machine learning predictions and their respective confidence on all NFL games this week. 

Game Vegas Line Estimate Diff Confidence
ATLANTA @ CAROLINA -5.5 -9.5 -4.0 71.0
PITTSBURGH @ CLEVELAND -3.0 6.0 9.0 67.9
ARIZONA @ SAN FRANCISCO -11.5 -1.9 9.6 59.7
NEW ENGLAND @ PHILLY 3.5 7.7 4.2 58.0
NEW ORLEANS @ TAMPA BAY 6.0 8.3 2.3 56.1
DALLAS @ DETROIT 5.5 7.4 1.9 55.0
DENVER @ MINNESOTA -10.5 -6.9 3.6 54.5
NY JETS @ WASHINGTON -1.0 -11.5 -10.5 54.2
LA CHARGERS - KANSAS CITY -4.0 -6.5 -2.5 51.2
CHICAGO @ LA RAMS -6.5 -3.6 2.9 51.0
HOUSTON @ BALTIMORE -4.0 3.3 7.3 50.4
BUFFALO @ MIAMI 6.0 4.5 -1.5 49.7
CINCINNATI @ OAKLAND -10.0 4.5 14.5 NA

NFL Machine Learning Picks - Week 10

Not a great week last week, the black cat Monday night saved us from total disaster. As the season continues more relevant data is fed and the accuracy increases. This week should be good based on what we've learned from last week. A couple of quick learnings:

1. Need to adjust the weight on strength of schedule. New England lost because they hadn't seen an offense like that in any of the previous games

2. No more Mexico or London game bets, period. 

This week we have some obvious picks and others that are a game time decision depending on injury reports. 

You can access ALL my picks exclusively on Rokfin. For a super low $9.99/mo subscription, you also get a lot of other cool combat sports a content. 

Free pick of the week!

Cincinnati +10 
A rookie QB getting his shot at becoming a starting QB for the NFL! You understand my models aren't great when there is a key player missing, but in this case we can assume this is an upgrade from Dalton who has thrown more interceptions than everyone but Mayfield. Also, home dogs by more than 7 coming off a bye are 69% (24 games) against the spread. Baltimore's offense was pretty impressive last game, but that also makes me think there's a recency bias. A divisional game like this should be closer, give me the home dog!

Arizona +4.5 correct NFL point spread pick
A Kyler Murray is looking better every week. All my models are pointing at an upset here with good confidence of 59% in this situation. Tampa has been on the road for the last 5 games which could have depleted them. 

Minnesota +3 correct NFL point spread pick
Dallas on short rest after an ugly win. The Giants were in that game the whole time until the black cat showed up. Dallas has one of the weakest strength of schedules and their defense isn't great agains the run. Dalvin Cook to do some damage here. All the Vikings need to do is bring a black cat.

Honorable mentions:

Oakland - models are mixed. Since 2000, homedogs by less than 3 in a divisional game are 59% ATS (55 games). Oakland has also one of the top 3 toughest schedules so far and their offense is 5 in DVOA! Can you believe that?

Here are the week 10 point spread machine learning predictions and their respective confidence on all NFL games this week. 

Game Vegas Line Estimate Diff Confidence
BALTIMORE @ CINCINNATI 10.0 8.9 -1.1 59.7
ARIZONA @ TAMPA BAY -4.5 1.0 5.5 59.4
MINNESOTA @ DALLAS -3.0 2.0 5.0 57.6
LA CHARGERS @ OAKLAND 1.0 -2.0 -3.0 55.6
SEATTLE @ SAN FRANCISCO -6.0 2.0 8.0 55.1
BUFFALO @ CLEVELAND -3.0 2.0 5.0 53.6
DETROIT @ CHICAGO -3.0 2.0 5.0 53.6
ATLANTA @ NEW ORLEANS -13.0 -8.0 5.0 50.3
CAROLINA @ GREEN BAY -5.0 1.0 6.0 47.4
LA RAMS @ PITTSBURGH 3.5 0.9 -2.6 39.7
NY GIANTS @ NY JETS 2.0 -3.0 -5.0 45.5
MIAMI @ INDIANAPOLIS -10.5 -13.6 -3.1 NA

NFL Machine Learning Picks - Week 9

What another great week! We hit 2 of 3 picks again for our 3rd straight winning week. The free pick last week, New England, covered nicely for everyone. We were also on the right side of all 3 night games (TNF, SNF, and MNF). This is incredible. The models have never performed this well this early and I have no indication that they're not going to continue to outperform the spread. 

New England -3.5 
Again? Yes! The Patriots are one of four teams at the top of the standings with 6-2 ATS this year. The spread can't catch up to this defense. It's an anomaly, a black swan therefore an opportunity. After covering 13 and 16.5 now they are only 3 point favorites against an offense that hasn't seen a good defense yet. Why? bc Baltimore can run the ball or bc they're coming off a bye? idc. The Patriots are 61% ATS on SNF since 2005 while Baltimore is 42%. 3.5 is a trap that my models don't fall into. 65% accurate when my models are slightly more for the visiting team at 3.5. Patriots win by a TD #PatriotsNation

Jacksonville +2 
Houston is banged up after rough win against the Raiders (who are still horrible imo). JJ Watt is out, team captain. Huge loss for the Texans. This means that Minshew with this 13TD and 2 INT could have another great game. Heavy money came in after this spread opened at 3. It's still going down so catch at before it's a pick.

Dallas -7 correct NFL point spread pick
You know I love betting the favorites (when they're not as heavy yet dominate). That's what this Dallas offense is and after a bye I expect nothing else. The Giants will get crushed, it's our Eagles / Bills game of last week. Models are estimating the Cowboys to win by 2 TD and in these situations it is accurate close to 59%. The Cowboys are 5-0 ATS against the Giants in the last 5 games. Catch this at -7 seems also that it could only go above 7.

Here are the week 9 point spread machine learning predictions and their respective confidence on all NFL games this week. 

Game Vegas Line Estimate Diff Confidence
NEW ENGLAND @ BALTIMORE 3.5 15.0 11.5 65.0
JACKSONVILLE - HOUSTON -1.5 6.8 8.3 62.5
DALLAS @ NY GIANTS 7.0 13.8 6.8 58.7
NY JETS @ MIAMI 3.0 -11.3 -14.3 55.6
TAMPA BAY @ SEATTLE -6.5 -3.4 3.1 55.1
TENNESSEE @ CAROLINA -3.5 -4.2 -0.7 54.2
MINNESOTA @ KANSAS CITY -2.0 -2.9 -0.9 54.2
DETROIT @ OAKLAND -2.0 11.4 13.4 47.1
SAN FRANCISCO @ ARIZONA 9.5 17.4 7.9 42.3
WASHINGTON @ BUFFALO -10.0 -9.1 0.9 42.3
CHICAGO @ PHILADELPHIA -5.0 -1.5 3.5 41.9
CLEVELAND @ DENVER 2.0 -2.1 -4.1 38.5
GREEN BAY @ LA CHARGERS 3.5 4.2 0.7 36.0

NFL Machine Learning Picks - Week 8

Another HUUUGE week last week. Nailed 3 of 4 locks ATS on week 7! Love getting the blowouts right. Going to our 3rd winning week in a row here are my winning picks of the week.   

You can access ALL my picks exclusively on Rokfin. For a super low $9.99/mo subscription, you also get a lot of other cool sports content. 

Gotta be really careful this week, lots of injuries. My data is junk for at least 3 games I'm staying away from (KC, NO, and ATL), a wild guess if the QBs are playing and how their teams will fare with or without them.

There are 3 solid opportunities that I'd like you to put some dough on this week. Diversify your portfolio and money manage it via Kelly's criterion, duh. Lets be smart here and get positive ROI big. One pick is free and the other two by subscribing to my channel on Rokfin.

NEW ENGLAND -13 correct NFL point spread pick
Since 2015, the Patriots are 13-3 ATS at home with a spread bigger than 10. Since 2000, the Patriots are 60% ATS across all games. Why would anyone one fade them if they keep covering? My model has them winning by 17 with enough confidence to make it a play. Cleveland's defense is on the bottom 3rd which is just enough for me to think that the unpredictable Patriots offense should have a good game. Combine that with the best defense in the league (is it the best ever? who's the captain?) and we got another cover. I think two TDs is a good cover here. Let's go! #PatriotsNation

PHILADELPHIA +2 correct NFL point spread pick
The models are capturing here a smaller difference in defense/offensive stats than what this spread warrants. Also, the strength of schedule is helping the Eagles cause. Take away the Patriots (the Bills only loss) and the Bills have played pretty much the worst teams in the league. Coming off a nasty loss, Philadephia could be showing recency bias. Big difference between percent of bets and money where PHI is getting 68% of the money but only 32% of the bets. Seems like the sharps know something as well. All signs points to #EaglesFly #dog

Carolina is on a tear. Is the spread not catching up or thinking they will regress to the mean? The line move half a point but the majority of the money is also on the Panthers. Models confident at 59% and all pointing in the same direction. Both teams are 4-2 ATS this year but Carolina's two losses were at home and with Cam Newton. The Panthers keep rolling probably but at least keep it close. Take the dog here (but with spread, I never win moneyline). 

Here are week 8 picks based off our machine learning point spread situational models and 12 years experience. Let's make money together...

Game Vegas Line Estimate Diff Confidence
PHILADELPHIA @ BUFFALO -1.5 -2.0 -0.5 62.5
CAROLINA @ SAN FRANCISCO -5.5 -4.5 1.0 59.1
CLEVELAND @ NEW ENGLAND -13.0 -17.5 -4.5 58.5
MIAMI @ PITTSBURGH -14.5 -13.0 1.5 55.8
WASHINGTON @ MINNESOTA -16.0 -2.0 14.0 54.5
NY JETS @ JACKSONVILLE -6.0 -11.4 -5.4 54.4
OAKLAND @ HOUSTON -6.5 -5.0 1.5 51.0
DENVER @ INDIANAPOLIS -6.0 -4.1 1.9 51.0
TAMPA BAY @ TENNESSEE -2.5 -5.9 -3.4 50.0
NY GIANTS @ DETROIT -7.0 -12.7 -5.7 42.4
CINCINNATI @ LA RAMS -12.5 -11.6 0.9 42.3
LA CHARGERS @ CHICAGO -4.0 -0.9 3.1 41.9
SEATTLE @ ATLANTA 7.0 -0.0 -7.0 NA
GREEN BAY @ KANSAS CITY 4.5 -6.0 -10.5 NA
ARIZONA @ NEW ORLEANS -9.5 -5.0 4.5 NA

NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 7

What a great week last week! We hit 2 of 3 picks plus #MNF Detroit +3.5 and Jets +8. We plan to go bigger this week with research and results. 

You can access ALL my picks exclusively on Rokfin. For a super low $9.99/mo subscription, you also get a lot of other cool sports content. Make sure to hit ENDORSE on channel though :)

KANSAS CITY -3 correct NFL point spread pick 
KC by 3 against Denver? Tyreek Hill is in and all their offensive weapons. We've been 3-0 this year on TNF. There's a bias that TNF should be a close game, not this one.

Gotta love that half a point in there! You'd might be thinking that Jacksonville is great and Minshew is doing a great job. They are in a way but did you know they have the same ATS record (3-3) this year? AJ Green and Dennard could be back this week. My models are picking up something off here. 90% of the money is going to Jacksonville, looks like a good contrarian play to me. Homedogs are barking, roof roof!

INDIANAPOLIS -1 correct NFL point spread pick
Both teams beat KC so what else should we look at? Houston has been able to score more points but struggled against Jacksonville and Carolina. They're coming off pretty banged up from the KC game. Home favorites in Division this year are 6-12 ATS so is that enough of a trend? No. I'd bet on the reverse because previous years aggregated that's like 52% ATS. Not a trend I'd bet but the regression to the mean is due. Models heavy here on the home team. 

LA RAMS -3 correct NFL point spread pick
Visiting team who is slightly favorite, my model can detect those opportunities like a radar can pick up on an propeller plane. Atlanta is junk. They have allowed over 20 points in every game and are 1-4 ATS. Rams are finding their strengths, Gurley being out might be a good thing. Seems like a good spot for them to get a win after two close tough losses.

Here were week 7 picks based off our machine learning point spread situational models and 12 years experience. Let's make money together...

Game Vegas Line Estimate Diff Confidence
KANSAS CITY @ DENVER 3.5 7 3.5 61.7
JACKSONVILLE @ CINCINNATI 3.5 -12.9 -16.4 60.6
HOUSTON @ INDIANAPOLIS -1.0 -8.4 -7.4 58.3
LA RAMS @ ATLANTA 3.0 10.2 7.2 58.1
NEW ENGLAND @ NY JETS 10.0 7.6 -2.4 55.3
MINNESOTA @ DETROIT 1.0 -4.0 -5.0 53.8
SAN FRANCISCO @ WASHINGTON 10.0 -2.6 -12.6 52.7
LA CHARGERS @ TENNESSEE -2.0 -2.5 0.5 51.6
MIAMI @ BUFFALO -16.5 -11.2 5.3 50.3
ARIZONA @ NY GIANTS -3.0 0.7 3.7 50.1
BALTIMORE @ SEATTLE -3.5 8.0 11.5 47.1
OAKLAND @ GREEN BAY -6.0 -11.2 -5.2 46.4
PHILADELPHIA @ DALLAS -3.0 10.5 13.5 47.1
NEW ORLEANS @ CHICAGO -3.5 -6.1 -2.6 NA

NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 6

We're going to go 3-0 this week! You can access all my picks and short podcast exclusively on Rokfin. You can access them there plus you get a bunch of other awesome sports content (e.g. MMA prediction picks) with one $9.99/mo subscription. Make sure to endorse my channel though :)

SEATTLE -1.5 correct NFL point spread pick

Models are picking up on the Cleveland hype. I hear a lot they got talent, but with 4 TD and 9 INT, it doesn't look like Baker is forming into a great NFL QB. Russel Wilson on the other hand, is a Super Bowl winner. Cleveland coming off short rest and Seattle from TNF makes it even sweeter. Need one good trend? How about this one: Seattle when visiting as favorite is 62% in last 15 games. Give me the much better team and coach.

NEW ENGLAND -16.5 correct NFL point spread pick

UGH, 16 and a half points. But hey these big spreads have been covered 4 of 5 times this year. Also, on Thursdays the favorites by more than 10 cover the spread 80% of the time in the last 20 games! The Giants without Barkley or Gallman bringing a 3rd string RB will probably have to depend on Daniel Jones who's got 4TD on 3 INT and tanking. Give me the dominant team, money!


Why isn't this 7 or even 10? Seems like an over-reaction to Mahomes ankle, last week loss to the Colts and last week's Houston w53 point win against the Falcon. Lots of inefficiencies put together. Tyreek Hill might be back. At home, these Chiefs bounce back for a must win. Money!

Here are the outputs of the NFL almost patent pending machine learning situational analytics and confidence percentages for week 6.

Game Vegas Line Estimate Diff Confidence
SEATTLE @ CLEVELAND 1.5 9.4 7.9 63.6
NY GIANTS @ NEW ENGLAND -16.5 -24.3 -8.1 59.3
HOUSTON @ KANSAS CITY -4.5 -17.2 -12.7 58.8
DALLAS @ NY JETS 8.5 -0.2 -8.7 56.6
WASHINGTON @ MIAMI 3.5 -6.9 -10.4 55.6
SAN FRANCISCO @ LA RAMS -3.5 6.3 9.8 54.9
TAMPA BAY @ CAROLINA -2.0 -4.4 -2.3 52.5
CINCINNATI @ BALTIMORE -11.5 -5.2 6.3 51.3
NEW ORLEANS @ JACKSONVILLE -1.0 3.8 4.8 50.3
PHILADELPHIA @ MINNESOTA -3.0 10.5 13.4 49.1
TENNESSEE @ DENVER -2.5 9.6 12.1 49.1
ATLANTA @ ARIZONA 2.5 2.3 -0.25 48.8
DETROIT @ GREEN BAY -4.5 8.1 12.6 44.4

NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 5

All official 2019 picks are going up exclusively on my Rokfin channel. This is to support what I do just as you'd support your favorite friend doing you a favor. In this case give you winning picks based on data science. It's time to crank it up and make some money!

Models are starting to pick up on trends happening this year. Using 20 years of situational data to understand when models best perform, NFLpickles matches these to current games to find those with highest situational probability of success.

You can access all my picks for the whole season for $9.99 a month. And you can cancel (or start) at any time. That's only a total of $50 for the 2019 NFL Season including Playoffs and Super Bowl (I'm 11-1 ATS in last 12 Super Bowls). I personally bet a whole lot more than that so verifying my picks with an experienced PhD data scientist isn't a bad idea.


With $9.99 per month you also get access not only to my picks but to other expert picks. There's also a good library of great MMA content from fighters like Ben Askren and Jordan Burroughs that you might find interesting. It's a growing network too so who knows which other sites would bundle their subscription services with this one. Go learn about the RAE token.

Here are week 5 NFLpickles machine learning situational optimization picks:

LA RAMS +1.5 
correct NFL point spread pick

Not a big fan of betting the visiting team on TNF since home team is 56% ATS when favorite. On the other hand, in divisional games visitors are 55% ATS in last 10 years (140 games) when home is favorite by less than 3. Rams lost by 15 last week and Rams not been favorite here seems like an over correction to last week. #inefficiencyFound


Is Chase Daniel that different from Trubisky? IDK, but he's never really gotten a chance to play. When he has, well he has a 70% completion rate and more touchdowns than interceptions. That's all the Bears defense needs (#1 in turnovers and allowing 11.2 points per game) to take over. Favorites are 61%ATS on neutral sites.

Check this out, when the line is equal to 6.5 for home team, they cover a whopping 64% ATS (87 games sample). Add a divisional constraint and it jumps close to 70. Melvin Gordon is back and the Chargers are going to be pumped against a very weak Denver defense.


Garnder Minshew secretly has 7 TDs to 1 INT. Check this stat out, Visitors are 58% ATS (on 132 games) when the spread is exactly 3.5. I'm not ready to bet on Kyle Allen. The Jaguars almost top 10 rushing defense should somewhat control McCaffrey, keep the game close and cover or have another upset last minute miracle.

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
LA RAMS @ SEATTLE -1.5 5.0 6.5 68.7
OAKLAND - CHICAGO -5.0 -11.1 -6.1 63.0
DENVER @ LA CHARGERS -6.5 -9.0 -2.5 59.0
JACKSONVILLE @ CAROLINA -3.5 -3.0 0.5 58.5
TAMPA BAY @ NEW ORLEANS -3.5 -9.1 -5.7 57.5
GREEN BAY @ DALLAS -3.5 -2.6 0.9 55.5
NEW ENGLAND @ WASHINGTON 15.5 -6.7 -22.2 54.6
BALTIMORE @ PITTSBURGH 3.5 5.5 2.0 54.1
CLEVELAND @ SAN FRANCISCO -3.5 -8.5 -4.9 50.0
ATLANTA @ HOUSTON -5.0 6.4 11.3 49.4
BUFFALO @ TENNESSEE -3.0 -0.9 2.1 49.2
NY JETS @ PHILADELPHIA -13.5 -13.4 0.1 48.3
MINNESOTA @ NY GIANTS 5.5 3.6 -1.9 45.6
ARIZONA @ CINCINNATI -3.5 -14.5 -10.9 NA