NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 7

Pick 1: Atlanta -6
Pick 2: Buffalo +7.5
Pick 3: Kansas City -5.5
Pick 4: Arizona +2 incorrect NFL point spread pick

Great week last week. Put me in check with my betting rules and emotions after being overly excited about the initial 3-0. TNF was an easy win with Philadelphia and then up 2 more games after the 12pm CST games, the next two games bombed and finished 3-2 for the week. The model did well at finding visiting teams that were undervalued (e.g. Philadelphia), but when the spread is more than a TD we should be more careful.

This week we have 3 home teams and one visiting, including one homedog. KC on SNF to continue it's ATS winning streak to 7 this week (see ATS Standings), Arizona homedog on TNF will be a crazy one and win outright. Atlanta's offense and ability to score is undervalued and the spread against a Giants team that is horrible should be at least 7.  Finally, we double dip on Buffalo against a bad team for which they aren't that different. Here is the rest of the machine learning NFL spread npicks for week 7, 2018:

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
NY GIANTS @ ATLANTA -6.0 -13.90 -7.94 63.13
BUFFALO @ INDIANAPOLIS -7.5 -3.00 4.50 60.55
CINCINNATI @ KANSAS CITY -6.0 -7.20 -1.18 59.10
DENVER @ ARIZONA 2.5 -7.50 -9.50 58.56
TENNESSEE @ LA CHARGERS -6.5 -3 3.51 56.79
CAROLINA @ PHILADELPHIA -4.5 -3.40 1.11 55.00
HOUSTON @ JACKSONVILLE -5.0 -6.00 -1.00 52.10
CLEVELAND @ TAMPA BAY -3.0 -1.70 2.71 50.54
LA RAMS @ SAN FRANCISCO 9.5 11.50 2.00 50.00
NEW ORLEANS @ BALTIMORE -2.0 0.40 2.38 49.29
DALLAS @ WASHINGTON -2.0 -3.90 -1.91 49.29
NEW ENGLAND @ CHICAGO 3.5 0.60 -2.88 48.66
MINNESOTA @ NY JETS 3.0 7.30 4.30 44.82
DETROIT @ MIAMI 1.0 6.20 5.15 NA

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 6

Pick 1: NY Jets -2.5 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Philadelphia -2 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: Buffalo +9.5 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 4: Jacksonville -3 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 5: LA Rams -7 incorrect NFL point spread pick

Not a great start going 1-2 on the picks last week. Lots of home teams won last week, which made me think twice about this week's picks. 3 bets are going after a better visiting team underrated because they are visiting and when you're so much better home field advantage lessens. Only one bet for the visiting team is for the underdog, Buffalo. This bet worries me and I thought of pulling it but I couldn't come up with a reasonable reason besides 'hunch'. Finally, Jets at home catching 2.5 against a struggling Colts team, I'm in. Here are all the spread predictions for week 5 NFL games:

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
INDIANAPOLIS @ NY JETS -2.5 -1.00 1.54 62.11
PHILADELPHIA @ NY GIANTS 2.0 10.8 8.81 59.06
BUFFALO @ HOUSTON -9.5 0.40 9.88 58.34
JACKSONVILLE @ DALLAS 3.0 6.20 3.16 58.12
LA RAMS @ DENVER 7.0 16.0 8.97 56.50
SEATTLE @ OAKLAND 2.5 7.20 4.72 55.10
TAMPA BAY @ ATLANTA -3.0 -6.90 -3.93 54.55
KANSAS CITY @ NEW ENGLAND -3.5 -7.00 -2.50 52.50
ARIZONA @ MINNESOTA -10.5 -11.00 -0.5 50.72
BALTIMORE @ TENNESSEE 3.0 10.60 7.61 50.06
SAN FRANCISCO @ GREEN BAY -9.5 5.90 15.44 50.14
PITTSBURGH @ CINCINNATI -2.5 -3.90 -1.37 50.03
LA CHARGERS @ CLEVELAND 1.5 3.00 1.50 49.8
CAROLINA @ WASHINGTON -1.0 -3.50 -2.50 49.8
CHICAGO @ MIAMI 3.5 5.10 1.59 47.5

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

2018 NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 5

Pick 1: LA Chargers -5.5 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Baltimore -3 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: Jacksonville +3 incorrect NFL point spread pick

I'm back baby and with a vengeance. Spent some time during the summer going through the machine learning models and making a few tweaks here and there. Didn't change that much since last year was a great year after a big overhaul that included transferring all the code to Python. I am going to make a few changes to how we bet. The main change is that we're not varying the percent of bankroll throughout the year, we're going 22% all year every week. A couple of betting rules to follow (more of a personal note):
  • Only bet the games selected on this blog
  • If a week doesn't go well, don't double down on SNF or MNF
  • Stay the course, 22% every week
  • Check injury reports every week
We're starting with a fake balance of 10K for tracking ROI purposes which means this week we split 2200 in 3 for each game. Here are week 5 machine learning powered NFL picks against the spread:

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
OAKLAND @ LA CHARGERS -5.50 -16.20 -10.75 61.9
BALTIMORE @ CLEVELAND 3.00 8.90 5.90 59.4
JACKSONVILLE @ KANSAS CITY -3.00 4.80 7.75 58.9
ARIZONA @ SAN FRANCISCO -4.50 -8.50 -4.00 57.0
DENVER @ NY JETS -1.00 -5.50 -4.50 54.5
MIAMI @ CINCINNATI -6.50 -18.10 -11.65 52.9
WASHINGTON @ NEW ORLEANS -6.50 -2.70 3.75 51.0
GREEN BAY @ DETROIT 1.00 -5.20 -6.25 50.8
ATLANTA @ PITTSBURGH -3.00 1.10 4.10 50.5
MINNESOTA @ PHILADELPHIA -3.00 1.00 4.00 50.5
DALLAS @ HOUSTON -3.00 0.50 3.51 50.0
TENNESSEE @ BUFFALO 3.50 8.90 5.40 49.3
NY GIANTS @ CAROLINA -7.00 -15.70 -8.75 48.1
INDIANAPOLIS @ NEW ENGLAND -10.00 -16.10 -6.10 45.2
LA RAMS @ SEATTLE 7.00 8.00 1.00 45.0

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

2018 NFL Point Spread Picks

Hello my dear fans,

What a wild ride last year was! NFLpickles had a great regular season posting a solid 62% ATS. I had some solid picks during the post-season including our 7th year in a row predicting correctly the Super Bowl against the spread. This year I'm focusing less on improving the algorithm because as you remember we did an overhaul last year that included moving all the code from SAS to Python. The focus will be on a better/winning betting strategy. I'm not sure what the answer is yet but will review the data and lay it out. It could be that we distribute pool evenly across weeks (regular and playoffs), or starting with higher constant % of the bank. I'm not sure yet, but once I finish the analysis I'll be sure to post it and follow it. If you have any solid scientific ideas, let me know.

This year, I will start publishing NFL machine learning spread picks in week 5. Usually, I post "unofficial picks" the first 4 weeks to give time for the data to sink in and then start, but that will just entice me to invest on games that I shouldn't be betting on in the first place. As always, picks will be free during the regular season and if I deliver above 55% then the playoff picks will be (like last year) available only to premium subscribers.

Ok, that's all for now and I'll see you in week 5.

2017 NFL Super Bowl Point Spread Pick

Super Bowl Pick: Philadelphia +5 correct NFL point spread pick

It's sad, depressing and disappointing that last week's game didn't go our way. I was feeling so confident up til now that I almost bet the farm on those games.  Sticking to the system (percent of bankroll) "paid off".

I really wanted to back the Patriots and fade Foles. Last year, the Patriots helped my wife and I win a free vacation (to Vegas) after that huge comeback to cover -3. So I ran the machine learning models and all were pointing at the Eagles. Ran the models with only Nick Foles games and without, but all situations point at Eagles +5. Historically, this blog has done very well in the Super Bowl going at 9-1. You can see all my Super Bowl picks.

Then I looked Super Bowl point spreads historically. In the last 20 years (only 20 games, small sample I know), the underdog has covered 13 times. Of the 7 Super Bowl games the Brady Patriots have been, they have covered 3 times. The last 2 which were miraculous last minute wins and the first one in which they were 12 point underdogs. I'm not a big fan of trends, but it seems like every trend that I look for points at the Eagles.

For the last week, we'll go 25% which mainly means we're betting here to go break even or make some decent money. At +60% ATS for the year this doesn't seem right. It might make sense to re-evaluate for next year how to better assign bankroll to each game throughout the season. Have a great Super Bowl!

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
PHILADELPHIA - NEW ENGLAND -5 -2.80 2.25 59.56

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

NFL Point Spread Picks - Conference Playoffs

Pick 1: Minnesota -3 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: New England -9 incorrect NFL point spread pick

Coming off a perfect week! New England was a good wise pick that was secure early on (except they didn't score first) and covered 13.5 with a dominating 35-14 win. Minnesota should have cleared that game easier than with a last second TD win and cover 3.5. They are a gooood team and that defense is legit (unlike Jacksonville's). Philly's defense is also legit, but their offense bleeds bad QB blood. "Homedog" sometimes is attractive, but not when your captain is Nick Foles. Yes, he had 1 game with 4 TD but the other 5 or 6 were pretty terrible. I ran the numbers as usual and from week 14 onwards (only Foles), Vikings is the bet here as they cover on both situations with good confidence. Keenum is 3rd in DBOA, holds the record for most NCAA yards (love that) and is pumped after that game winning TD!

As for the second game, JAC @ NE home favorite by 9 we are basically placing the same bet. There is a huge difference in QB talent between the two teams. This position is extremely important and cannot have such gaps I'm sorry it's over. The numbers are close but so they were for Tennessee. Close but slightly for the home team when the home team is favorite performs well with my algorithm. Go Patriots, do it again!

These are the two top teams in ATS Standings this season. Minnesota went 11-4-1 and Patriots 11-5-0. You'd think that Vegas would have caught on but not yet.

With a current backroll of about $17.7K, we keep the betting pool at 30%. That means that we'll bet $2,650 for each game this week. Lets win!

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
MINNESOTA @ PHILADELPHIA 3.0 9.60 6.69 60.56
JACKSONVILLE @ NEW ENGLAND -9.0 -10.00 -1.00 55.56

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

NFL Point Spread Picks - Divisional

Pick 1: Minnesota -3.5 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: New England -13.5 correct NFL point spread pick

Bad week last week. Bailed out at the last minute on the Jacksonville game since McCoy was ready to play yet the line didn't go down to an acceptable level of 7. The real disappointment for me was New Orleans not covering, I feel like they should've but their running game wasn't there.

This week we got some great games coming. We're focusing on two games and going for a perfect record to make up and surpass last week's loss. Although last week all road teams covered, this week we reverse the trend and expect a few key home teams to show up. Unfortunately, with Nick Foles our models won't be able to accurately predict this game. When I did analyze that game for the few only games with Nick Foles, then Atlanta would cover but I'm staying out of this one. First of, the Vikings solid defense will watch tape and stop the Saints running game again. The question becomes, can Drew Brees have another game like he had? Well maybe but the edge is on the Vikings and I would wait because this might go to 3 points (or buy the half point). Next, can you really bet against the Patriots vs a team that shouldn't even be in the playoffs? I'm glad the numbers are also there to back this bet. Finally, I'm not backing Bortles again. The confidence isn't there (visiting team with a slight edge on a 7+ spread) to bet on this game anyways

With a current backroll of about $13.5K, we keep the betting pool at 30%. That means that we'll bet $2,100 for each game this week. Lets go!

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
NEW ORLEANS @ MINNESOTA -3.0 -6.50 -3.00 61.90
TENNESSEE @ NEW ENGLAND -13.5 -17.00 -2.5 59.64
JACKSONVILLE @ PITTSBURGH -7.5 -3.90 3.56 51.22
ATLANTA @ PHILADELPHIA 3.0 -3.00 -6.00 NA

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

NFL Point Spread Picks - Divisional

Four great divisional games ahead of us this week. We lock down two of them for picks this week for our premium members. The trends are there, the numbers are there, we are feeling confident about these two picks, so confident that a parlay might be at play. Let it ride!

NFL Point Spread Picks - Wildcard Playoffs

Pick 1: New Orleans -7 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Tennessee +9 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: LA Rams -6.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick

The year of the favorite continues. We only have one underdog pick. These are too many points for KC to cover on a playoff game. I hate backing Tennesse and Mariotta who's got more INT than TD, but that's what the numbers are saying. Jacksonville has definitely disappointed recently and Bortles is looking like Bortles again, but the point of stats is to look at the whole picture and that's telling us they have an awesome defense. McCoy potentially bring out is something I would also like but he's a game time decision so when it's confirmed that he will play, we'll place the bet there and the spread should go down to 7 or so. The Rams will run all over the weak Atlanta defense. Finally, the team I feel is going to the Super Bowl gets the numbers. The Saints triple offensive threat is real and the terrible Carolina offense will not be able to keep up.

With a current backroll of about $15K, we increase betting pool to 30% throughout the playoffs. That means that we'll bet $1,150 for each game this week. Keep the wins coming!

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
CAROLINA @ NEW ORLEANS -7.0 -9.00 -2.03 60.24
BUFFALO @ JACKSONVILLE -9.0 -16.00 -7.00 59.85
TENNESSEE @ KANSAS CITY -9.0 3.50 6.48 57.45
ATLANTA @ LA RAMS -6.5 -10.00 -3.50 56.22

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

NFL Quant Point Spread Picks

This year have witnessed a 64% ATS along with a betting strategy that gave you 52% ROI. We're not finished yet, now comes the time where these machine learning models perform best. Historically NFLpickles has performed 67% ATS during the playoffs and 9-1 for the Super Bowl. Any other site says they have been winning all year every year, but we know that's not true. You have seen my picks posted here for free throughout the season and for the last 10 years. Here's 3 reasons you shouldn't hesitate to pitch in $99 bucks for winning quantitative picks.

  1. We will win: A record 64% ATS and 52% ROI this year. 
  2. Limited Time: Once playoffs start, the selling stops...
  3. Science: Can you bet big without statistical expertise?

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