NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 15

Pick 1: Denver -3
Pick 2: Arizona +9
Pick 3: Seattle -4

1) Cleveland's rushing D is horrible. Lindsay and the Broncos bounce back with a great win at home.
2) Atlanta a 9 point favorite? A great confidence spot for a road team. Arizona is horrible but has covered in almost half of the games this year.
3) SF's stock is high after that huge upset last week. Seattle's D is one of the best in the league and their offense will show up this week.

Honorable mentions: Da Bears, Minnesota @ home, New Orleans but can they win outside on grass?

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
CLEVELAND @ DENVER -3.0 -10.50 -7.50 61.80
ARIZONA @ ATLANTA -9.0 -4.20 4.83 59.78
SEATTLE @ SAN FRANCISCO 4.0 13.70 9.73 58.82
MIAMI @ MINNESOTA -7.0 -10.30 -3.31 55.37
DETROIT @ BUFFALO -2.5 4.80 7.31 54.92
NEW ORLEANS @ CAROLINA 6.5 14.70 8.23 54.72
TENNESSEE @ NY GIANTS -2.5 -1.50 0.97 54.52
GREEN BAY @ CHICAGO -6.0 -8.60 -2.56 50.00
OAKLAND @ CINCINNATI -3.0 -3.80 -0.83 50.10
LA CHARGERS @ KANSAS CITY -3.5 -1.80 1.68 50.00
DALLAS @ INDIANAPOLIS -2.5 0.40 2.88 50.00
TAMPA BAY @ BALTIMORE -8.0 -7.70 -0.30 49.13
NEW ENGLAND @ PITTSBURGH 1.5 7.20 5.69 47.33
HOUSTON @ NY JETS 6.5 4.50 -2.00 47.00
WASHINGTON @ JACKSONVILLE -7.0 -2.50 4.50 NA
PHILADELPHIA @ LA RAMS -11.0 -13.30 -2.31 NA

NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 14

Pick 1: Seattle -3 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: New Orleans -8 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: Denver -6 incorrect NFL point spread pick

Another devastating week! With all the injuries in place, it was hard picking games where the data was reliable. After doing a deep dive on the machine learning models predicting the spread that was recently re-written, I found a bug that was affecting this year but not the last. Mainly I was using data in the model from early last year that I didn't intend to. Although this mistake of mine has cost me money and reputation, I'm glad I found it now and be ready for the coming weeks and the playoffs.

In retrospect, Seattle, Denver, Patriots, and Arizona should've been easy picks. 14 points for Green Bay seemed like way too much even for the models. The other 3 picks follow the trend of good teams against really bad ones. This week we have the following trends happening:

1) Seattle is on fire and will continue to be dangerous at home. The seem to be eyeing the playoffs very closely. The Vikings are on the verge of collapse. Exploit!
2) New Orleans coming off a loss against a good defense to face one of the worst defenses in the league. Should be high scoring and one-stop/turnover will help NO win by 2 TDs.
3) Denver's D will not allow points to the 49ers. They win by a TD or more...

I know they are all favorites, but that's the way it came out. I also liked the Rams but bc Chicago was without Trubisky the last two games, the data might not be completely reliable there. Should be a good game and this way I get to cheer for my Bears. Dallas was also a close play this week, should be a good bet if you decide on it.

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
MINNESOTA @ SEATTLE -3 -7.30 -4.29 62.00
NEW ORLEANS @ TAMPA BAY 8.0 13.50 5.50 58.00
DENVER @ SAN FRANCISCO 6.0 7.80 1.79 57.18
LA RAMS @ CHICAGO 3.0 4.30 1.29 56.14
PHILADELPHIA @ DALLAS -4.0 -6.50 -2.50 55.17
DETROIT @ ARIZONA 2.5 -3.50 -6.00 54.84
CAROLINA @ CLEVELAND 1.5 3.50 2.01 53.33
INDIANAPOLIS @ HOUSTON -4.5 -12.00 -7.50 52.17
NEW ENGLAND @ MIAMI 8.0 14.90 6.93 51.72
BALTIMORE @ KANSAS CITY -7.0 -9.60 -2.58 50.00
JACKSONVILLE @ TENNESSEE -4.5 -3.40 1.11 50.00
NY JETS @ BUFFALO -3.5 -1.30 2.18 48.29
ATLANTA @ GREEN BAY -6.0 -6.70 -0.71 46.00
PITTSBURGH @ OAKLAND 10.5 11.60 1.08 45.00
CINCINNATI @ LA CHARGERS -14.0 -13.50 0.55 NA
NY GIANTS @ WASHINGTON 4.0 NA -6.50 NA

NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 13

Pick 1: New Orleans -7 incorrect NFL point spread pick

Ugh, what an ugly and sloppy week. I saw Adam's Smith video injury like 12 times and I still bet on Washington? C'mon man! Cincinnati wasn't as good as the stats showed and now without Dalton, they're going to be NA for the rest of the season. Still, the Broncos defense is shifting the models their way. The Patriots were the only to cover and barely got caught with a trash TD. All road teams this week, home field advantage overestimated in the following 3 games:

1) New Orleans is the team with the best ATS and they are dominating. This should continue in Dallas. Get it at 7 if you can!
2) Update: Trubisky isn't playing. The Bears defense performance is a reminder of the Urlacher days. They cover easily against a weak Eli Manning.
3) Convinced to stay away, but earlier I said: Denver better than Cincinnati especially if Dalton and AJ Green aren't playing. Strong D bet.

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
NEW ORLEANS @ DALLAS 7.0 13.90 6.90 61.29
CHICAGO @ NY GIANTS 4.5 9.60 5.08 NA
ARIZONA @ GREEN BAY -14.5 -6.50 8.00 56.14
NY JETS @ TENNESSEE -9.0 -12.90 -3.90 55.56
KANSAS CITY @ OAKLAND 15.0 6.40 -8.60 55.00
CLEVELAND @ HOUSTON -6.0 -4.10 1.89 53.15
SAN FRANCISCO @ SEATTLE -10.0 -4.20 5.79 52.70
MINNESOTA @ NEW ENGLAND -6.0 -3.10 2.89 52.17
LA RAMS @ DETROIT 10.0 9.60 -0.43 50.00
INDIANAPOLIS @ JACKSONVILLE 4.0 7.40 3.43 48.15
BALTIMORE @ ATLANTA 1.0 1.80 0.78 NA
WASHINGTON @ PHILADELPHIA -6.5 -2.30 4.21 NA
CAROLINA @ TAMPA BAY 3.5 5.50 2.03 NA
BUFFALO @ MIAMI -5.0 -1.20 3.80 NA
LA CHARGERS @ PITTSBURGH -3.5 13.90 17.38 NA Gordon
DENVER @ CINCINNATI 4.5 6.50 2.00 NA

NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 12

Pick 1: New England -9.5 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Pittsburgh -3 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: Cincinnati -3 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 4: Washington +7.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick

We got lucky last week. Two bad picks and two that cleared by half a point. Looking back, fading Oakland against a weak team wasn't a good idea and also stay away from Barkley and the Giants. This week the algorithm picked strong teams but shied away from 13 pt favorite New Orleans.

1) If Flacco plays, fade Oakland once again.
2) Patriots with a struggling NY Jets. They will eat them alive. A big offense against a weak D.
3) Pittsburgh on a roll.
4) Cinci with AJ Green can score big and Cleveland won't be able to keep up.
5) High confidence situation betting the dog of a 7.5 point favorite on prime time. McCoy our hometown fav, go Horns!

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
NEW ENGLAND @ NY JETS 9.5 16.00 6.50 61.72
PITTSBURGH @ DENVER 3.0 6.30 3.27 58.82
CLEVELAND @ CINCINNATI -3.0 -9.00 -6.00 58.54
WASHINGTON @ DALLAS -7.5 -2.00 5.50 NA
GREEN BAY @ MINNESOTA -3.5 -8.80 -5.25 56.37
SAN FRANCISCO @ TAMPA BAY -3.5 3.00 6.50 55.56
ATLANTA @ NEW ORLEANS -13.0 -10.00 3.00 53.15
MIAMI @ INDIANAPOLIS -9.5 -11.30 -1.82 52.97
CHICAGO @ DETROIT 4.5 1.00 -3.51 52.82
ARIZONA @ LA CHARGERS -12.0 -5.00 7.00 52.00
SEATTLE @ CAROLINA -3.5 -2.00 1.50 50.29
TENNESSEE @ HOUSTON -6.5 -10.20 -3.70 49.79
NY GIANTS @ PHILADELPHIA -6.0 -13.00 -7.00 42.37
JACKSONVILLE @ BUFFALO 3.00 6.00 3.00 NA
OAKLAND @ BALTIMORE -10.50 -20.00 -9.50 NA

NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 11

Pick 1: Arizona -4 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Kansas City +3.5 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: Tampa Bay +1 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 4: Seattle -2.5 correct NFL point spread pick

Last week we almost swept, so close! I'm not going to complain about a 3-1 week, but do hope for a sweep soon since I almost tasted it. I'm even more confident of the models and the process this year. Here's what we got going for NFL spread picks this week:

1) Fade Oakland once again.

2) Why isn't KC a pick? Wrong home field advantage. Now in LA, still ok.

3) I know it lost, but we gotta keep fading the Giants. Tampa can score more than SF.

4) Seattle is under-rated again. Their D will keep them and win this game.


GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
OAKLAND @ ARIZONA -4.0 -15.00 -11.00 61.89
KANSAS CITY @ LA RAMS -3.5 3.70 7.17 59.64
TAMPA BAY @ NY GIANTS -1.0 3.20 4.20 58.60
GREEN BAY @ SEATTLE -2.5 -10.00 -7.50 58.54
MINNESOTA @ CHICAGO -3.0 4.00 7.00 55.92
TENNESSEE @ INDIANAPOLIS -2.5 4.00 6.50 55.56
DENVER @ LA CHARGERS -7.0 -11.30 -4.33 54.90
HOUSTON @ WASHINGTON 3.0 -2.70 -5.67 54.84
PHILADELPHIA @ NEW ORLEANS -9.0 -6.10 2.85 52.81
DALLAS @ ATLANTA -3.5 -4.00 -0.50 50.00
PITTSBURGH @ JACKSONVILLE 5.5 6.00 5.10 50.00
CAROLINA @ DETROIT 4.0 0.70 -3.33 50.82
CINCINNATI @ BALTIMORE -4.00 -10.70 -6.67 NA

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 10

Pick 1: San Francisco -3 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Seattle +10 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: New Orleans -5.5 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 4: LA Chargers -10 correct NFL point spread pick

Another 50% week thanks to the top two picks. I'm tempted this week to put a parlay on SF and Seattle! We need to start banking here and hopefully this week we will. Here's the deal:

1) We probably should keep fading Oakland, but the model didn't find it highly secure to bet against a 10 point home dog. Instead the other team I love fading, the NY Giants, are only a 3 point dog on the road so I'm glad that's the first pick.
2) Seattle isn't that bad unless there's an injury I'm missing. LA Rams as good as they are have been 4-4 ATS. Should be a closer game according to the models.
3) Update: sorry, I can't bet Cleveland. I love Baker Mayfield as a 5 point home dog against a weak defense. Sure Atlanta will score a lot of points, but so will Cleveland. The Browns are also 5-4 ATS which makes me more comfortable making this bet.
4) I'm not betting against the Saints again like we did last week. That was dumb. At less than a TD, I'm taking this NFL champion to the bank.
5) Keep fading Oakland.

Here is the rest of the machine learning NFL spread picks for week 10, 2018:

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
NY GIANTS @ SAN FRANCISCO -3.0 -7.00 -4.03 63.41
SEATTLE @ LA RAMS -10.00 -3.50 6.50 60.14
NEW ORLEANS @ CINCINNATI 5.50 -2.50 -7.99 58.38
LA CHARGERS @ OAKLAND 10.0 13.20 3.20 54.67
ATLANTA @ CLEVELAND 5.00 -2.40 -7.40 59.62
CAROLINA @ PITTSBURGH -4.00 -2.00 1.99 53.33
NEW ENGLAND @ TENNESSEE 6.5 3.50 2.50 52.62
DALLAS @ PHILADELPHIA -7.00 -3.00 3.99 52.62
ARIZONA @ KANSAS CITY -16.50 -12.50 3.96 52.62
DETROIT @ CHICAGO -6.50 -5.10 1.37 50.17
WASHINGTON @ TAMPA BAY -3.00 -5.90 -2.86 49.67
JACKSONVILLE @ INDIANAPOLIS -3.00 3.60 6.60 48.10
BUFFALO @ NY JETS -6.50 -8.30 -1.84 NA
MIAMI @ GREEN BAY -9.50 -8.90 0.62 NA

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 9

Pick 1: San Francisco -2.5 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: New England -5.5 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: LA Rams +1.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 4: Tampa Bay +7 incorrect NFL point spread pick

Although officially it was a 50% ATS, it was a good week. Cinci should've covered that game, unfortunately, it didn't fall our way this time. The Bears and New Orleans were solid bets. Baltimore was bad but luckily when I went to bet, it had climbed to 2.5 so I forgot to bet it later to see if it had come back down. Anyways, there's a good indication here that the models are getting better.

For week 9 of the NFL 2018 season these are some trends we're betting:
1) Keep fading Oakland, especially on the road.
2) Keep betting Brady/Bellicheck magic. It's only going to get better when Edelman, Gronk, and Gordon all sync
3) The LA Rams on paper are better than New Orleans. Tough game to bet, but the Rams should win.
4) Too many points for Carolina when they are so inconsistent. Hoping for inconsistency and some Fitzmagic
5) Waiting to see if Josh Allen plays. If he does, 9 points for the Bears on the road is giving them way too much credit especially with Buffalo's pass D.

Here is the rest of the machine learning NFL spread picks for week 9, 2018:

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
OAKLAND @ SAN FRANCISCO -2.5 -5.60 -3.07 66.67
GREEN BAY @ NEW ENGLAND -5.5 -7.40 -1.89 60.00
LA RAMS @ NEW ORLEANS -1.5 8.10 9.60 59.00
TAMPA BAY @ CAROLINA -7.0 0.70 7.70 58.67
ATLANTA @ WASHINGTON -1.5 -2.50 -0.97 56.77
HOUSTON @ DENVER -2.5 -7.10 -4.65 54.76
KANSAS CITY @ CLEVELAND 9.0 5.30 -3.68 53.22
PITTSBURGH @ BALTIMORE -3.0 1.30 4.31 52.00
LA CHARGERS @ SEATTLE -1.5 -3.30 -1.76 50.67
DETROIT @ MINNESOTA -4.5 -7.50 -3.01 50.78
TENNESSEE @ DALLAS -6.5 3.50 9.02 NA
CHICAGO @ BUFFALO 9.5 7.80 -1.66 NA
NY JETS @ MIAMI -3.0 -9.70 -6.75 NA

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 8

Pick 1: New Orleans 0 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Chicago -7 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: Baltimore -1 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 4: Cincinnati -4 incorrect NFL point spread pick

Update: Added Cincinnati as a pick for the week based on the discrepancy between the spread and the estimate and not having a significant player injury.

Terrible ending to what could've been my happiest 50% ATS week. Eli Manning is garbage and ruining his reputation after every play. I will make that bet again any day. Still feeling strongly about dominant teams vs weak teams and how they can blow them out when the spread isn't in double digits. We saw it last week with Rams and Chiefs.

This week we have 3 great NFL spread picks; 2 visiting teams and 1 home team. New Orleans are a close 2nd IMO on the NFC and seems undervalued here against an inconsistent Vikings team. The spread opened at +2.5 and quickly moved to pick, hoping it reverses a bit to bet it. The spread for the Texans seems too high given they aren't that great, Jacksonville and Bortles are back to their 2015 season and made Houston look good. At +7.5 analytics believes Miami will cover, but given Tannehill isn't playing I downgraded this game as a no bet. Chicago, my Bears, looking ok. It's great to see a great D post-Urlacher and they did a pretty good job with the Patriots even though they allowed +40 points. At home, this playoff team will show they want a chance at the postseason and weak teams like the NYJ are not going to get on their way. Finally, Baltimore's D is good and should make Cam Newton run for its money. I'm not so sure about Flacco on the road, but the models seem to give BAL a lot more points (probably due to the difference of stats in Defense). Oakland was attractive too, but idk what they're offense is going to do without Coooper so staying away from that bet as well. Here is the rest of the machine learning NFL spread picks for week 8, 2018:

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
NEW ORLEANS @ MINNESOTA 0 8.70 8.17 68.82
NY JETS @ CHICAGO -7.0 -10.30 -3.31 59.90
BALTIMORE @ CAROLINA 1.0 11.90 10.95 58.00
TAMPA BAY @ CINCINNATI -4.0 -15.00 -10.99 NA
INDIANAPOLIS @ OAKLAND 1.5 -0.80 -2.25 57.14
GREEN BAY @ LA RAMS -9.0 -6.30 2.72 55.81
SEATTLE @ DETROIT -2.5 -6.90 -4.38 55.10
JACKSONVILLE @ PHILADELPHIA -3.0 -7.40 -4.40 55.10
DENVER @ KANSAS CITY -10.0 -11.60 -1.59 52.17
CLEVELAND @ PITTSBURGH -7.5 -8.90 -1.39 50.00
NEW ENGLAND @ BUFFALO 14.0 14.50 0.50 50.00
WASHINGTON @ NY GIANTS 1.0 -1.00 -1.98 50.00
SAN FRANCISCO @ ARIZONA -1.0 0.10 1.11 49.17
MIAMI @ HOUSTON -7.5 -2.20 5.25 NA

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 7

Pick 1: Atlanta -6 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Buffalo +7.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: Kansas City -5.5 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 4: Arizona +2 incorrect NFL point spread pick

Great week last week. Put me in check with my betting rules and emotions after being overly excited about the initial 3-0. TNF was an easy win with Philadelphia and then up 2 more games after the 12pm CST games, the next two games bombed and finished 3-2 for the week. The model did well at finding visiting teams that were undervalued (e.g. Philadelphia), but when the spread is more than a TD we should be more careful.

This week we have 3 home teams and one visiting, including one homedog. KC on SNF to continue it's ATS winning streak to 7 this week (see ATS Standings), Arizona homedog on TNF will be a crazy one and win outright. Atlanta's offense and ability to score is undervalued and the spread against a Giants team that is horrible should be at least 7.  Finally, we double dip on Buffalo against a bad team for which they aren't that different. Here is the rest of the machine learning NFL spread npicks for week 7, 2018:

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
NY GIANTS @ ATLANTA -6.0 -13.90 -7.94 63.13
BUFFALO @ INDIANAPOLIS -7.5 -3.00 4.50 60.55
CINCINNATI @ KANSAS CITY -6.0 -7.20 -1.18 59.10
DENVER @ ARIZONA 2.5 -7.50 -9.50 58.56
TENNESSEE @ LA CHARGERS -6.5 -3 3.51 56.79
CAROLINA @ PHILADELPHIA -4.5 -3.40 1.11 55.00
HOUSTON @ JACKSONVILLE -5.0 -6.00 -1.00 52.10
CLEVELAND @ TAMPA BAY -3.0 -1.70 2.71 50.54
LA RAMS @ SAN FRANCISCO 9.5 11.50 2.00 50.00
NEW ORLEANS @ BALTIMORE -2.0 0.40 2.38 49.29
DALLAS @ WASHINGTON -2.0 -3.90 -1.91 49.29
NEW ENGLAND @ CHICAGO 3.5 0.60 -2.88 48.66
MINNESOTA @ NY JETS 3.0 7.30 4.30 44.82
DETROIT @ MIAMI 1.0 6.20 5.15 NA

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 6

Pick 1: NY Jets -2.5 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Philadelphia -2 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: Buffalo +9.5 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 4: Jacksonville -3 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 5: LA Rams -7 incorrect NFL point spread pick

Not a great start going 1-2 on the picks last week. Lots of home teams won last week, which made me think twice about this week's picks. 3 bets are going after a better visiting team underrated because they are visiting and when you're so much better home field advantage lessens. Only one bet for the visiting team is for the underdog, Buffalo. This bet worries me and I thought of pulling it but I couldn't come up with a reasonable reason besides 'hunch'. Finally, Jets at home catching 2.5 against a struggling Colts team, I'm in. Here are all the spread predictions for week 5 NFL games:

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
INDIANAPOLIS @ NY JETS -2.5 -1.00 1.54 62.11
PHILADELPHIA @ NY GIANTS 2.0 10.8 8.81 59.06
BUFFALO @ HOUSTON -9.5 0.40 9.88 58.34
JACKSONVILLE @ DALLAS 3.0 6.20 3.16 58.12
LA RAMS @ DENVER 7.0 16.0 8.97 56.50
SEATTLE @ OAKLAND 2.5 7.20 4.72 55.10
TAMPA BAY @ ATLANTA -3.0 -6.90 -3.93 54.55
KANSAS CITY @ NEW ENGLAND -3.5 -7.00 -2.50 52.50
ARIZONA @ MINNESOTA -10.5 -11.00 -0.5 50.72
BALTIMORE @ TENNESSEE 3.0 10.60 7.61 50.06
SAN FRANCISCO @ GREEN BAY -9.5 5.90 15.44 50.14
PITTSBURGH @ CINCINNATI -2.5 -3.90 -1.37 50.03
LA CHARGERS @ CLEVELAND 1.5 3.00 1.50 49.8
CAROLINA @ WASHINGTON -1.0 -3.50 -2.50 49.8
CHICAGO @ MIAMI 3.5 5.10 1.59 47.5

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.