2014 Betting Picks - Super Bowl XLIX

Pick 1: New England -1 correct NFL point spread pick

I hope people cleaned up (and made up losses) last week. I personally had a close to do or die parlay that paid big time. The Super Bowl pick is not an easy one given I personally and the predictive model are not picking the defending champs. There are a few things that worry me: Seattle's passing defense, being there last year, the inflated ball scandal, Pats losing last two Super Bowl appearances, Lynch. But there are others that I like: Brady, Belichick, 3-time champs, offense, Seattle defensive injuries. Regardless, I go with the numbers and they're pointing at NE. Shop around, you might save a point and get them at pick'em.

Since my models have home field advantage as a variable, I ran it twice as if the game was in NE or SEA. Regardless, the results were preferring New England. The confidence number was hard to calculate. It was above 58% when assuming NE at home but close to 54 if away. So basically what you see below is the average. As you see, normally in the regular season, this would be a no bet. But c'mon, this is the Super Bow. So this is how we're finishing the season.

Going with 20% of bankroll which makes a $1500 point spread bet for the Super Bowl game Feb 1st in Arizona.

Finally, I want to thank everyone for the positive and constructive comments. I will continue to learn, improve and enjoy doing this for next year. Until then..Go Patriots!

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
NEW ENGLAND - SEATTLE 1 8.4 7.4 56.3%

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

2014 Betting Picks - Conference Playoffs

Pick 1: New England -7 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Green Bay +7.5 correct NFL point spread pick

I won't say much. Well maybe that if I had put age in my model maybe it would've told me that Payton Manning should retire. Good bet on Seattle which needed that defensive touchdown I was hoping for all night. Two good games next week. I'll send you my picks early so you can see where the line is moving so you can make your bet when best. Going with 30% of bankroll which makes a $1100 bet for each of the conference championship game.

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
INDIANAPOLIS @ NEW ENGLAND -7 -9.9 -2.9 58.7%
GREEN BAY @ SEATTLE -7.5 -4.1 3.4 58.1%

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

2014 Betting Picks - Divisional Playoffs

Pick 1: Seattle -1 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Denver -7 incorrect NFL point spread pick

The best analysis I've read about the divisional playoff that will leave you dazed and confused is this one. This analysis suggests you should bet all the underdogs. Some of the games have contradicting stats though. The Cowboys are 7-1 ATS but the Packers are 22-8. Peyton Manning is 10-10 in his last playoff games while the Colts are 1-4-1 in their last 6 games. Carolina has scored one TD in the last 28 drives against Seattle but double digit favorites in playoffs have 4 of the last 6. Finally, I couldn't find any contradicting stats he mentioned on the Ravens/Patriots game. That's Matt's analysis not mine. I have two picks and based on the results I might add Dallas. Going to 30% of bankroll again. That makes a $1200 a game for this week. Good luck!

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
CAROLINA @ SEATTLE -11 -16.3 -5.3 59.4%
INDIANAPOLIS @ DENVER -7 -10.0 -3.0 58.7%
DALLAS @ GREEN BAY -6 -3.8 2.2 54.0%
BALTIMORE @ NEW ENGLAND -7 -9.5 -2.5 52.5%

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

2014 NFL Betting Picks - Wildcard Playoffs

Pick 1: Baltimore +3.5 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Indianapolis -4 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: Arizona +6.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick

Down to 50% now after 4 losing weeks in a row. This is my worst streak in 7 years. What the hell, there is still time to make up and come out on top. The playoffs are here! In the four wildcard games, three of them have high confidence probability of betting. I'm personally not confident with any of them given the record of the last five weeks, but at the same time have to trust the system that has worked well in the past 7 years. Personally don't like Arizona given the change in QBs but they could still lose but at less the 6.5 points. The Steelers are hot but I like Baltimore winning in the playoffs. Finally, Indi has a lot to prove and hopefully comes out on top. The spread in the Dallas game seems right on target and it's a no bet. Going to 30% of bankroll for the rest of the playoffs. That makes a $700 a game for this week. Good luck!

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
BALTIMORE @ PITTSBURGH -3.5 2.2 5.7 58.9%
CINCINNATI @ INDIANAPOLIS -4 -7.1 -3.1 58.1%
ARIZONA @ CAROLINA -6.5 2.9 9.4 57.0%
DETROIT @ DALLAS -7 -5.2 1.8 50.4%

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

2014 NFL Betting Picks - Week 17

Pick 1: Detroit +7.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: San Diego -1 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: Carolina +3 correct NFL point spread pick
I'm not sure how I'm still above 50%. It's been 3 losing weeks in a row and 4 of the last 5. It wasn't until week 10 perfect picks that I haven't seen profits. The disappointment is unbearing. Need to snap this streak big time.

This week we have 3 premium picks and we are keeping the bankroll at 25%. This gives us a bet of $650 per game for this week.

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
DETROIT @ GREEN BAY -7.5 -1.2 6.3 61.7%
SAN DIEGO @ KANSAS CITY 1 4.5 3.5 59.6%
CAROLINA @ ATLANTA -3 7.3 10.3 58.9%
CINCINNATI @ PITTSBURGH -3.5 6.7 10.2 55.2%
INDIANAPOLIS @ TENNESSEE 7 19.1 12.1 54.5%
NEW ORLEANS @ TAMPA BAY 4 7.2 3.2 53.8%
PHILADELPHIA @ NY GIANTS -2.5 6.0 8.5 52.9%
DALLAS @ WASHINGTON 4 2.9 -1.1 52.1%
OAKLAND @ DENVER -14 -18.6 -4.6 51.8%
ST LOUIS @ SEATTLE -12 -15.5 -3.5 50.8%
ARIZONA @ SAN FRANCISCO -6.5 -3.5 3.0 50.0%
CHICAGO @ MINNESOTA -6 -6.2 -0.2 50.0%
BUFFALO @ NEW ENGLAND -5 -11.7 -6.7 50.0%
CLEVELAND @ BALTIMORE -13.5 -13.0 0.5 49.7%
NY JETS @ MIAMI -6 -9.9 -3.9 49.0%
JACKSONVILLE @ HOUSTON -9.5 -16.8 -7.3 46.1%

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

2014 NFL Betting Picks - Week 16

Pick 1: San Diego +1 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Indianapolis +3 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: Arizona +9 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 4: Denver -3 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Another miserable week for this picks as the picks went again 1-2. Should have not bet against Denver. I'm adjusting a few parameters this week based on some back testing I did over the week. Excuse me for not posting the picks before Thursday. I'm still confident the system works, so hoping that from now on and especially during the playoffs, we come out winning big to recover and finish the year in good shape.

This week we have 4 premium picks and we are keeping the bankroll at 25%. This gives us a bet of $560 per game for this week. I also like and stats back me up on KC, CHI, NE and CLE.

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
SAN DIEGO @ SAN FRANCISCO -1 3.9 4.9 66.7%
INDIANAPOLIS @ DALLAS -3 3.7 6.7 59.1%
SEATTLE @ ARIZONA 9 3.1 -5.9 57.5%
DENVER @ CINCINNATI 3 6.4 3.4 57.1%
ATLANTA @ NEW ORLEANS -6.5 -9.4 -2.9 56.3%
KANSAS CITY @ PITTSBURGH -3 11.3 14.3 55.8%
BALTIMORE @ HOUSTON 6 1.9 -4.1 54.4%
MINNESOTA @ MIAMI -6.5 -6.7 -0.2 50.0%
DETROIT @ CHICAGO 9.5 5.6 -3.9 50.0%
CLEVELAND @ CAROLINA -4 0.4 4.4 50.0%
PHILADELPHIA @ WASHINGTON 8 8.2 0.2 50.0%
NY GIANTS @ ST LOUIS -6.5 -4.8 1.7 49.2%
NEW ENGLAND @ NY JETS 10.5 25.3 14.8 48.2%
GREEN BAY @ TAMPA BAY 12 10.0 -2.0 47.5%
BUFFALO @ OAKLAND 6.5 6.9 0.4 47.0%

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

2014 NFL Betting Picks - Week 15

Pick 1: Washington +7 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: San Diego +4.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: New England -7.5 correct NFL point spread pick

Last week our picks went 1-2. Got lucky that Minnesota scored a touchdown in overtime and pushed. Chicago was a bad bet, especially now that Marshall is out. Seattle was a good bet and Cincinnati bombed.

This week we have 3 premium picks and we are going to up the bankroll to 25%. Being at pretty much break-even level and the season approaching its end, I want to end with a bang (or a boom). This gives us a bet of $815 per game for this week. Honorable mentions that the computer-based picked were Dallas although I've already made that mistake during Thanksgiving so it sounds like a good one to shy away. Carolina and Cincinnati but both game have new QBs. Detroit looks tempting as well. That's it for now. Thank you everyone for all the constructive comments, I've been learning a lot from you guys. Thanks and good luck to everyone.

P
GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
WASHINGTON @ NY GIANTS -7 -1.5 5.5 62.3%
DENVER @ SAN DIEGO 4.5 -1.0 -5.5 59.5%
MIAMI @ NEW ENGLAND -7.5 -15.1 -7.6 59.5%
MINNESOTA @ DETROIT -8 -8.6 -0.6 56.3%
NEW ORLEANS @ CHICAGO 3 0.8 -2.2 54.5%
PITTSBURGH @ ATLANTA 2.5 -1.8 -4.3 54.4%
OAKLAND @ KANSAS CITY -10 -15.9 -5.9 54.1%
HOUSTON @ INDIANAPOLIS -7 -9.8 -2.8 54.1%
TAMPA BAY @ CAROLINA -3.5 -5.5 -2.0 52.0%
SAN FRANCISCO @ SEATTLE -10 -10.5 0.5 50.0%
CINCINNATI @ CLEVELAND -1 6.0 7.0 50.0%
JACKSONVILLE @ BALTIMORE -14 -19.0 -5.0 49.7%
GREEN BAY @ BUFFALO 6 -3.7 -9.7 48.5%
ARIZONA @ ST LOUIS -4.5 4.5 9.0 48.2%
NY JETS @ TENNESSEE 2 1.6 -0.4 47.5%

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

2014 NFL Betting Picks - Week 14

Pick 1: Cincinnati -3.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Seattle +1 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: Chicago +3.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 4: Minnesota -6 PUSH

Last week our picks went 3-2. The San Diego pick and win was a classic Vegas moment. Down by 9 and everything went perfectly for them to get the win. On the other hand, New England's missed field goal was also classic but didn't go in our favor. I wasn't even sure they would go for the field goal, they did and saw the opportunity, but then the miss changed everything. Dallas was a bad pick in retrospect, but Denver was almost an obvious pick. Now that the RB can pick up when Payton doesn't deliver gives me more confidence in the Broncos. I need the models to better predict the blowouts. This week was the Rams beating the Raiders by 52 points and the Colts cruising at home against the Redskins.

This week we have 4 premium picks starting with the Thursday night game at Soldier Field and the rest. Honorary mentions for picks that didn't make the premium cut were the two big underdogs. Atlanta's playing the red hot Packers at Lambeau on Monday night. That's a hard pick to make. Carolina is one of the worst teams in my opinion and I've lost enough bets on them this year so I'm out of that one too. This week we keep the bankroll to use 20% split evenly across the 4 NFL games, giving us a bet of about $520 per game. Below are the computer-based NFL point spread predictions.

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
PITTSBURGH @ CINCINNATI -3.5 -10.1 -6.6 61.0%
SEATTLE @ PHILADEPHIA -1 7.5 8.5 60.1%
DALLAS @ CHICAGO 3.5 0.1 -3.4 58.6%
NY JETS @ MINNESOTA -6 -7 -1 58.3%
ATLANTA @ GREEN BAY -12.5 -8.8 3.7 56.3%
CAROLINA @ NEW ORLEANS -10 -6.8 3.2 55.3%
BUFFALO @ DENVER -10 -15.4 -5.4 54.1%
TAMPA BAY @ DETROIT -10 -11.1 -1.1 54.0%
INDIANAPOLIS @ CLEVELAND 4.5 12.2 7.7 53.9%
NEW ENGLAND @ SAN DIEGO 4 6.5 2.5 52.5%
BALTIMORE @ MIAMI -3 -4.3 -1.3 50.0%
KANSAS CITY @ ARIZONA -1.5 -0.3 1.2 50.0%
ST LOUIS @ WASHINGTON 3 -2.9 -5.9 49.9%
NY GIANTS @ TENNESSEE 1.5 -0.1 -1.6 49.5%
SAN FRANCISCO @ OAKLAND 9 6.9 -2.1 48.5%
HOUSTON @ JACKSONVILLE 5.5 5.9 0.4 48.2%

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

2014 NFL Betting Picks - Week 13

Pick 1: Denver -2 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Seattle +1 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: San Diego -4.5 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 4: Dallas -3 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 5: New England +3 incorrect NFL point spread pick

I have no regrets regarding the picks last week. They were solid picks, no emotions, pure data and the right ones given the situation. New England of course was the right pick and also a blowout. Denver should have pull that one off and so should KC. I still think weather wasn't the tipping big factor. Like some of the comments in the post last week, I can't expect to win every week although it would be nice. Models can't and won't account for everything, but one tries to determine the key variables that do drive the predictions and in the long run it should work and pay off. We're now going to week 13 which means that there are still 4 weeks in the regular season and then the playoffs. Plenty of time to come out with huge gains!

This week we have 5 premium picks. I have to get them out on Monday as I will be traveling without my data-crunching computer. Usually too many picks for my taste but it is what it is. I have lost betting Denver the last two weeks and KC is a homedog. SF at home by 1. The SD/BAL makes me a little nervous given that I don't know where the line is, but if I can't remove it. Finally, NE is going to Lambeau. There is one free computer-based predictions that doesn't look too bad and that's Carolina. We have two Thanksgiving night game and two day games on Sunday. Some notable mentions in the free picks include Arizona and Cleveland. This week we raise the bankroll to use 20% split evenly across the 5 NFL games, giving us a bet of about $400 per game. Below is our table with free NFL point spread predictions.

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
DENVER @ KANSAS CITY 2 5.2 3.2 62.5%
SEATTLE @ SAN FRANCISCO -1 1.7 2.7 61.0%
SAN DIEGO @ BALTIMORE -4.5 0.9 5.4 59.3%
PHILADEPHIA @ DALLAS -3 -7.0 -4.0 58.3%
NEW ENGLAND @ GREEN BAY -3 4.7 7.7 58.1%
CAROLINA @ MINNESOTA -2.5 2.1 4.4 56.5%
NY GIANTS @ JACKSONVILLE 3 0.4 -2.6 55.8%
OAKLAND @ ST LOUIS -7 -7.7 -0.7 54.8%
NEW ORLEANS @ PITTSBURGH -3 -4.8 -1.8 52.1%
CLEVELAND @ BUFFALO -1.5 -7.0 -5.5 50.0%
ARIZONA @ ATLANTA 2.5 12.3 9.8 50.0%
CINCINNATI @ TAMPA BAY 4 12.6 8.6 49.9%
WASHINGTON @ INDIANAPOLIS -10 -10.1 -0.1 48.4%
CHICAGO @ DETROIT -7 -4.1 2.9 48.2%
TENNESSEE @ HOUSTON -6 -9.9 -3.9 47.0%

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

2014 NFL Betting Picks - Week 12

Pick 1: Denver -7.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Kansas City -7 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: New England -7 correct NFL point spread pick

Every week is a learning experience. In retrospect, the New Orleans pick was a bad one given that the difference between prediction and vegas was small and when tinkering with the weights a bit, it would provide much different results. This means that the model was relying to heavily on recent success for the Saints. The Denver pick I think was the right one given the circumstance. I was a bit shocked with not the cover but the straight up win. I smelled blood in the Sunday night and Monday night game and again looking back I should have notified you through Twitter to go at if you had the chance. It wouldn't have changed the results here, but meant to tell you that I felt more comfortable with those picks than the confidence explained. Anyways, after this week we are at 56.8% ATS for the season and 8.1% ROI.

This week we have 3 solid premium picks. There are some free computer-based predictions that don't look too bad either. We have the Thurday night game and two day games on Sunday. Some notable mentions in the free picks include Arizona and Cleveland. This week we again use 18% of bankroll split evenly across our 3 premium games giving us a bet of about $650 per game. Below is our table with free NFL point spread predictions.

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
MIAMI @ DENVER -7.5 -14.7 -7.2 62.9%
KANSAS CITY @ OAKLAND 7 -15.6 -8.6 58.6%
DETROIT @ NEW ENGLAND -7 -12.3 -5.3 58.0%
ARIZONA @ SEATTLE -6 -2.2 3.8 57.4%
CLEVELAND @ ATLANTA -3.5 -1.4 2.1 55.6%
CINCINNATI @ HOUSTON -1.5 2.4 3.9 55.3%
JACKSONVILLE @ INDIANAPOLIS -14 -18.6 -4.6 54.3%
BALTIMORE @ NEW ORLEANS -3 1.7 4.7 53.8%
TAMPA BAY @ CHICAGO -6 -7.4 -1.4 52.5%
GREEN BAY @ MINNESOTA 10 8.3 -1.7 50.0%
WASHINGTON @ SAN FRANCISCO -9 -7.3 1.7 50.0%
ST LOUIS @ SAN DIEGO -5 -6.6 -1.6 50.0%
DALLAS @ NY GIANTS 3.5 4.5 1.0 49.2%
NY JETS @ BUFFALO -4.5 -5.1 -0.6 48.7%
TENNESSEE @ PHILADELPHIA -11 -15.9 -4.9 47.3%

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.