2016 NFL Super Bowl Spread Pick

Pick 1: Patriots -3 correct NFL point spread pick

If there is one impeccable record during our 8 years doing this is the Super Bowl ATS where against the spread we've gone 6-1. This year should be no different.

To get reassurance, I used my employers technology to validate or disprove what our models were saying. We looked at online conversations around this year’s playoff games. For each game we analyzed all the tweets in the week leading up to the game. The winner of the game was simply predicted by taking the team who the majority of people expressed was going to win. What we found was that, surprisingly, women were far more accurate in their predictions. For example, during the 2016 playoffs, the only two games where the majority of the women were wrong were the Oakland-Houston and Green Bay-Dallas game.

As for the models it was clear that the Patriots are predicted to cover the spread. Plus it's Brady-Belichick killer combination. That's all I got for this year. It's been disastrous and some heavy thinking will need to happen during the off season in order to get back on track. Good luck on the Super Bowl and see you all in Vegas.

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
ATLANTA - NEW ENGLAND -3 -10.2 -7.2 60.0%

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

2016 NFL Point Spread Picks - Conference Playoffs

Pick 1: Patriots -6 correct NFL point spread pick

Betting Patriots all in. Should bet Falcons, but I cannot see myself betting against Rodgers right now.

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
PITTSBURGH @ NEW ENGLAND -6 -11.7 -5.7 61.0%
GREEN BAY @ ATLANTA -4 -6.6 -2.6 53.4%

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

2016 NFL Point Spread Picks - Divisional Playoffs

Pick 1: Atlanta -5 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Kansas City -1.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: Dallas -4 incorrect NFL point spread pick

This week has been the worst most saddest weeks of my life. Mom please send me some luck from heaven, if you can't that's all right, I've hit bottom anyways here at NFLpickles. Bet all home teams this week. Good luck.

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
SEATTLE @ ATLANTA -5 -12.4 -7.4 60.1%
PITTSBURGH @ KANSAS CITY -1.5 -10.5 -9.0 58.0%
GREEN BAY @ DALLAS -4 -12.0 -8.0 55.0%
HOUSTON @ NEW ENGLAND -16 -14.7 1.3 49.3%

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

2016 NFL Point Spread Picks - Wildcard Playoffs

Pick 1: Detroit +8 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Green Bay -4.5 correct NFL point spread pick

Historically we've done well in the playoffs and specifically the wild card round. Given this year's troublesome record, I'm definitely not as confident as I have been in the past. It doesn't help either that two starting QBs (Oakland and Miami) aren't playing this weekend. The models point to Green Bay, Detroit and Houston (but staying away from this game). We are betting big on Detroit and Green Bay but staying away from the Steelers' massacre of the Dolphins and Houston's bigger upset.

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
DETROIT @ SEATTLE -8 -5.3 2.7 59.8%
NY GIANTS @ GREEN BAY -4.5 -9.5 -5.0 59.0%
OAKLAND @ HOUSTON -3 -6.0 -3.0 NA
MIAMI @ PITTSBURGH -10 -3.0 7.0 NA

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

2016 NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 17

Pick 1: Miami +9.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Indianapolis -4.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick

We continue to either win big or go home by continuing the 30% of bankroll. This puts us at $1200 a game for the 2 games (plus a a big parlay) we have going on this week. Good luck to all of us including the chicken making picks on Twitter, hilarious.

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
NEW ENGLAND @ MIAMI 9.5 7.0 -2.5 63.6%
JACKSONVILLE @ INDIANAPOLIS -4.5 -5.2 -0.7 60.0%
CAROLINA @ TAMPA BAY -5.5 -9.3 -3.8 56.1%
KANSAS CITY @ SAN DIEGO 6 16.1 10.1 55.5%
CLEVELAND @ PITTSBURGH -6 -3.0 3.0 54.8%
SEATTLE @ SAN FRANCISCO 9.5 3.6 -5.9 53.7%
HOUSTON @ TENNESSEE -3 0.5 3.5 50.4%
BALTIMORE @ CINCINNATI -2 4.2 6.2 51.1%
CHICAGO @ MINNESOTA -5 -3 2 50.0%
ARIZONA @ LOS ANGELES 6 0.1 -5.9 50.0%
OAKLAND@ DENVER -2 -3.5 -1.5 49.4%
GREEN BAY @ DETROIT 3.5 6.5 3.0 49.0%
BUFFALO @ NY JETS 3.5 -7.2 -10.7 48.0%
DALLAS @ PHILADELPHIA -3.5 1.8 5.3 NA
NY GIANTS @ WASHINGTON -7.5 -3.0 4.5 NA
NEW ORLEANS @ ATLANTA -6.5 -16.8 -10.3 NA

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

2016 NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 16

Pick 1: Seattle -8 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Atlanta -2.5 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: Dallas -7 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 4: San Diego -6.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 5: Kansas City -4 correct NFL point spread pick

We continue to either win big or go home by continuing the 30% of bankroll. This puts us at $400 a game for the 5 games we have going on this week.

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
ARIZONA @ SEATTLE -8 -15.6 -7.6 72.4%
ATLANTA @ CAROLINA 2.5 13.9 11.4 62.5%
DETROIT @ DALLAS -7 -9.1 -2.1 58.7%
SAN DIEGO @ CLEVELAND 6.5 11.6 5.1 57.3%
DENVER @ KANSAS CITY -4 -10.8 -6.8 57.0%
CINCINNATI @ HOUSTON -2 -8.3 -6.3 55.1%
INDIANAPOLIS @ OAKLAND -4 -10.1 -6.1 53.5%
NY JETS @ NEW ENGLAND -16.5 -12.9 3.6 52.6%
NY GIANTS @ PHILADELPHIA 2.5 1.5 -1.0 52.0%
MIAMI @ BUFFALO -3.5 -7.6 -4.1 51.4%
SAN FRANCISCO @ LOS ANGELES -3.5 -3.0 0.5 50.4%
WASHINGTON @ CHICAGO 3 -3.0 -6.0 50.0%
TENNESSEE @ JACKSONVILLE 5 11.0 6.0 50.0%
TAMPA BAY @ NEW ORLEANS -3 -17.3 -14.3 50.0%
MINNESOTA @ GREEN BAY -7 -15.9 -8.9 49.4%
BALTIMORE @ PITTSBURGH -4.5 -3.0 1.5 48.3%

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

2016 NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 15

Pick 1: Kansas City -6
Pick 2: Los Angeles +16
Pick 3: Oakland -3

It's time to win big or go home. Last year we went 3-0 on picks for week 15, and this year things can't get any worse (but like a colleague of mine said, when your losing what do you have to lose?). So we are cranking up the bet to 30% of bankroll. If Julio Jones makes it back that will be $750 per game, if not, it's $1,100 per game. Good luck to all of us. Update: removed Atlanta but added Oakland.

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
TENNESSEE @ KANSAS CITY -6 -16.1 -10.1 62.0%
LOS ANGELES @ SEATTLE -16 -13.9 2.1 58.8%
SAN FRANCISCO @ ATLANTA -13.5 -17.5 -4.0 58.4%
PHILADELPHIA @ BALTIMORE -6 -2.0 4.0 56.7%
OAKLAND @ SAN DIEGO 3 12.8 9.8 55.2%
PITTSBURGH @ CINCINNATI 3.5 2.0 -1.5 54.0%
NEW ENGLAND @ DENVER 3 6.9 3.9 53.1%
NEW ORLEANS @ ARIZONA -2.5 -5.7 -3.2 51.4%
INDIANAPOLIS @ MINNESOTA -4 1.1 5.1 51.1%
GREEN BAY @ CHICAGO 7 5 -2.0 51.1%
CLEVELAND @ BUFFALO -10 -7.3 2.7 50.8%
JACKSONVILLE @ HOUSTON -6 -8.5 -2.5 50.7%
MIAMI @ NY JETS 2.5 1.4 -1.1 50.5%
TAMPA BAY @ DALLAS -7 -8.0 -1.0 50.0%
DETROIT @ NY GIANTS -4 -5.5 -1.5 49.0%
CAROLINA @ WASHINGTON -5 -3.0 2.0 48.3%

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

2016 NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 14

Pick 1: Carolina -1 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Indianapolis -6 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: New York Jets +2.5 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 4*: Denver -1 incorrect NFL point spread pick

Waiting on Sieman's status for Denver's pick, will update later this week. Thank you all for those who keep encouraging me. My patience and trust is at rock bottom.

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
SAN DIEGO @ CAROLINA -1 -6.5 -5.5 65.0%
HOUSTON @ INDIANAPOLIS -6 -9.9 -3.9 57.9%
NY JETS @ SAN FRANCISCO -2.5 5.1 7.6 56.4%
DENVER* @ TENNESSEE 1 7.9 6.9 57.1%
CHICAGO @ DETROIT -9 -3.9 5.1 55.5%
OAKLAND @ KANSAS CITY -3 -8.3 -5.3 54.5%
PITTSBURGH @ BUFFALO 2.5 -1.9 -4.4 54.0%
SEATTLE @ GREEN BAY 3 6.1 3.1 53.1%
DALLAS @ NY GIANTS 3.5 3.2 -0.3 52.0%
ARIZONA @ MIAMI -1.5 -0.8 0.7 51.6%
BALTIMORE @ NEW ENGLAND -7 -12.9 -5.9 50.0%
MINNESOTA @ JACKSONVILLE 3.5 1.5 2.0 50.0%
ATLANTA @ LOS ANGELES 6 11.3 5.3 50.0%
CINCINNATI @ CLEVELAND 6 5 1.0 49.0%
NEW ORLEANS @ TAMPA BAY -2.5 -7 -4.5 48.5%
WASHINGTON @ PHILADELPHIA 1 -3.0 -4.0 46.4%

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

2016 NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 13

Pick 1: Washington +2.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: New Orleans -5.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: Miami +3.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 4: Denver -4 correct NFL point spread pick

Another tough week last week. At this point, I've given up on a good record for the regular season but really hoping to turn it around and have a great ending like last year. If you recall, last year the turnaround happened in week 15 to then go 8-2 during the playoffs. Anyways, this week we're going with 3 road teams and a home favorite.

Staying at 18% of bankroll, each game gets a $350 bet. Lets turn this around now.

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
WASHINGTON @ ARIZONA -2.5 0.6 3.1 60.4%
DETROIT @ NEW ORLEANS -5.5 -10.8 -5.3 59.8%
MIAMI @ BALTIMORE -3.5 -0.4 3.1 58.1%
DENVER @ JACKSONVILLE 4 7.9 3.9 58.1%
CAROLINA @ SEATTLE -6.5 -12.2 -5.7 55.0%
NY GIANTS @ PITTSBURGH -6 -3.0 3.0 54.8%
DALLAS @ MINNESOTA 3.5 4.8 1.3 53.1%
TAMPA BAY @ SAN DIEGO -3.5 -5.5 -2.0 51.4%
HOUSTON @ GREEN BAY -6.5 -12.1 -5.6 51.0%
BUFFALO @ OAKLAND -3 -5.2 -2.2 50.0%
SAN FRANCISCO @ CHICAGO -1.5 1.9 3.4 50.0%
KANSAS CITY @ ATLANTA -3.5 -10.3 -9.8 49.5%
INDIANAPOLIS @ NY JETS 1 -1.8 -2.8 49.4%
LOS ANGELES @ NEW ENGLAND -13.5 -12.7 0.8 48.3%
PHILADELPHIA @ CINCINNATI 1 -4.4 -5.4 NA

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

2016 NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 12

Pick 1: Cleveland +7 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Atlanta -4.5 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: Minnesota +2.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 4: Los Angeles +7 incorrect NFL point spread pick

That's right, Cleveland even with Josh McCown. I would usually stay away from a bet when a key player is out but I do think this benefits Cleveland. There's a pretty high probability that they break their winless record this week so at least here we're hoping they win or lose by less than 7. The others are solid picks except for Los Angeles which I'm not super excited to bet against New Orleans at home.

Staying at 18% of bankroll, each game gets a $400 bet. Get some wins!

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
NY GIANTS @ CLEVELAND 7 -2.0 -9.0 61.7%
ARIZONA @ ATLANTA -4.5 -8.3 -3.8 59.1%
MINNESOTA @ DETROIT -2.5 2.8 5.3 58.4%
LOS ANGELES @ NEW ORLEANS -7 -4.0 3.0 57.8%
SAN FRANCISCO @ MIAMI -7.5 -6.1 1.4 54.8%
JACKSONVILLE @ BUFFALO -7 -5.0 2.0 54.8%
CINCINNATI @ BALTIMORE -4.5 0.1 4.6 53.8%
KANSAS CITY @ DENVER -3.5 -5.8 -2.3 52.4%
NEW ENGLAND @ NY JETS 8 10 2.0 51.1%
GREEN BAY @ PHILADELPHIA -3.5 -4.3 -0.8 50.7%
WASHINGTON @ DALLAS -7 -8.1 -1.1 50.0%
SEATTLE @ TAMPA BAY 5.5 4.6 -0.9 50.0%
CAROLINA @ OAKLAND -4 -5.7 -1.7 50.0%
SAN DIEGO @ HOUSTON -1 2.8 3.8 48.5%
PITTSBURGH @ INDIANAPOLIS 6 -1.6 -7.6 NA
TENNESSEE @ CHICAGO 3.5 -1.3 -4.8 NA

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.