NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 12

Pick 1: Buffalo +10
Pick 2: Jacksonville -5
Pick 3: Philadelphia -13.5
Pick 4: Indianapolis +3.5

Another great week last week going 3-1 ATS. The one loss could've been avoided by staying off that game due to the injuries at Seattle. Anyways, this Thanksgiving week we'll continue to roll with a big dog in Buffalo, heavy favorites Jaguars and Eagles, and taking a home dog in the Colts.

Keeping the bankroll at a healthy 22%. With four solid NFL picks this week we get about $725 per game (based on our current bankroll). Hope you are thankful to all the great things you have in life including these great picks coming out of my machine this year.

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
BUFFALO @ KANSAS CITY -10.0 -5.20 4.78 70.37
JACKSONVILLE @ ARIZONA 5.0 8.20 3.18 60.87
CHICAGO @ PHILADELPHIA -13.5 -16.20 -2.75 58.56
TENNESSEE @ INDIANAPOLIS 3.5 -3.70 -7.17 58.52
MIAMI @ NEW ENGLAND -16.5 -25.70 -9.21 55.83
HOUSTON @ BALTIMORE -7.0 -14.50 -7.46 54.62
TAMPA BAY @ ATLANTA -10.0 -13.40 -3.43 53.00
CAROLINA @ NY JETS 4.5 9.70 5.19 52.56
DENVER @ OAKLAND -5.0 -3.50 1.46 52.56
NEW ORLEANS @ LA RAMS -2.5 -11.20 -8.68 51.85
CLEVELAND @ CINCINNATI -9.0 -7.00 2.00 51.57
NY GIANTS @ WASHINGTON -7.5 -2.90 4.61 51.22
LA CHARGERS @ DALLAS -1.0 4.20 5.21 50.00
MINNESOTA @ DETROIT 3.0 3.10 0.10 49.41
SEATTLE @ SAN FRANCISCO 7.0 13.50 6.48 48.00
GREEN BAY @ PITTSBURGH -14.0 -9.30 4.67 NA

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

NFL Spread Picks - Week 11, 2017

Pick 1: New England -7 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Seattle -3 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: Pittsburgh -7 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 4: Jacksonville -7.5 correct NFL point spread pick

What a f* great week! Wow, it's been a crazy ride this year and now that we continue to bet the increasing bankroll is when we'll start seeing huge growth. Half a point a way from a perfect 5-0, but I'll take 4-1 ATS in the NFL any day. I've been doing NFL spread picks for about 10 years now and I've never been this excited. I think there are two things contributing to the success so far: 1) there aren't many middle ground teams; they are really good and horrible and we've been banking on those heavy favorites and 2) after transferring my machine learning NFL spread picks to Python and adding a few new methodologies, I have a wider array of model choices to compare and weigh each one depending on their historical success.

This NFL week 11 we will continue to bank on heavy favorites. New England in Mexico City, yeah elevation is not going to benefit Oakland. I like the Seattle pick at home and although no Sherman there's no Devante either so I like this matchup. Pittsburgh is also a heavy favorite and although they didn't play great last week, it's good to see the spread a bit less than last week so I'll think they'll bounce back to dominate. Continue fading the Browns and go on Jacksonville to sweep them off. Two other picks that caught my eye although they didn't make my confidence threshold are LA Rams and Philadelphia (especially with Ezequiel out). Good luck everyone.

It is time to bump up the percent of bankroll to 22%. This means that this week we will bet about $525 per game (based on our current bankroll). It's going to be very exciting to see where we end this week and as always, post a comment about your picks so we can discuss.

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
NEW ENGLAND - OAKLAND (Mexico City) 7.0 15.20 8.20 61.00
ATLANTA @ SEATTLE -3.0 -6.00 -3.00 60.28
TENNESSEE @ PITTSBURGH -7.0 -12.30 -5.31 59.67
JACKSONVILLE @ CLEVELAND 7.5 19.80 12.29 58.43
LA RAMS @ MINNESOTA -2.0 12.80 14.79 56.26
PHILADELPHIA @ DALLAS 3.5 5.50 2.00 55.41
BUFFALO @ LA CHARGERS -4.0 -1.10 2.90 54.56
TAMPA BAY @ MIAMI -2.5 -5.00 -2.50 51.67
CINCINNATI @ DENVER -2.5 5.10 7.63 51.28
ARIZONA @ HOUSTON 1.5 -1.30 -2.79 50.0
DETROIT @ CHICAGO 3.0 -3.20 -6.17 50.00
WASHINGTON @ NEW ORLEANS -9.0 -5.70 3.30 50.00
KANSAS CITY @ NY GIANTS 10.5 13.80 3.32 49.86
BALTIMORE @ GREEN BAY 2.0 -3.00 -5.02 NA

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

NFL Spread Picks - Week 10, 2017

Pick 1: Arizona +6.5 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Jacksonville -3.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: Detroit -11.5 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 4: Cincinnati +4.5 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 5: LA Rams -12 correct NFL point spread pick

The trash TD and 2-point conversion by overpaid Jay Cutler continued our winning streak. I wish I had waited longer for this and gotten the extra half point and it would've been a win vs a push. This week we have a some big favorites, a home dog and an easy money win from Jacksonville. Although I don't like super heavy favorites, I also like betting against really crappy teams hence bet against Cleveland and Houston.

This NFL week 10 we continue with 18% of bankroll which gives us roughly a $400 bet per game. Let us know what your picks are and if you agree/disagree with these picks.

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
SEATTLE @ ARIZONA 6.5 3.00 -3.50 60.9
LA CHARGERS @ JACKSONVILLE -3.5 -16.50 -13.00 60.6
CLEVELAND @ DETROIT -11.5 -16.50 -5.00 59.0
CINCINNATI @ TENNESSEE -4.5 -1.90 2.56 58.6
HOUSTON @ LA RAMS -12.0 -22.50 -10.50 57.3
NY JETS @ TAMPA BAY 2.5 -1.00 -3.50 56.4
NEW ORLEANS @ BUFFALO 2.5 3.90 1.43 54.5
MINNESOTA @ WASHINGTON 1.5 -1.80 -3.33 53.3
PITTSBURGH @ INDIANAPOLIS 10.0 20.00 10.00 53.4
NEW ENGLAND @ DENVER 7.5 7.80 0.30 50.3
DALLAS @ ATLANTA -3.0 -2.50 0.50 50.3
MIAMI @ CAROLINA -9.0 -16.20 -7.22 49.8
NY GIANTS @ SAN FRANCISCO 1.0 3.20 2.17 48.0
GREEN BAY @ CHICAGO -5.0 -6.40 -1.35 NA

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

2017 NFL Week 9 Point Spread Picks

Pick 1: New Orleans -7 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Miami +3 PUSH
Pick 3: Kansas City PK incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 4: Indianapolis +13 correct NFL point spread pick

Coming out of a great week last week, I believe we have some great picks this week. Tampa Bay is terrible and the Saints should roll past them by a lot. Not so sure about Atlanta (*update: changed a few parameters, re-ran and now it's not a pick), but hopefully some of last year's glory comes out in this game against a struggling Panthers team. I hate betting for Cutler, but this is a nice fade against a bad Oakland team and always like getting a homedog in there. I like KC winning this game and with Ezequiel out it's almost a sure bet. Too many points in the Indi/Houston game.

This NFL week 9 we will start to put the foot on the pedal and increase to 18% of bankroll. Since we have 4 NFL football games preferred by machine learning each game will get a $440 bet.

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
TAMPA BAY @ NEW ORLEANS -7.0 -15.10 -8.10 60.6
OAKLAND @ MIAMI 3.0 -2.7 -5.7 58.4
KANSAS CITY @ DALLAS 1.00 7.60 6.60 58.3
INDIANAPOLIS @ HOUSTON -13.0 -10.50 2.50 58.0
LA RAMS @ NY GIANTS 3.5 -11.00 -14.50 57.1
ARIZONA @ SAN FRANCISCO 2.0 3.60 1.6 54.3
ATLANTA @ CAROLINA -1.0 1.50 2.47 54.0
CINCINNATI @ JACKSONVILLE -4.5 3.70 8.17 53.7
BUFFALO @ NY JETS 3.0 5.70 2.67 53.4
WASHINGTON @ SEATTLE -7.5 -2.70 4.83 51.2
DENVER @ PHILADELPHIA -8.0 -9.70 -1.70 50.0
BALTIMORE @ TENNESSEE -4.5 -1.70 2.83 NA
DETROIT @ GREEN BAY 2.5 -9.70 -12.17 NA

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

2017 Week 8 NFL Point Spread Picks

Pick 1: New England -7.5 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Washington +2.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: Buffalo -2.5 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 4: Carolina +2 correct NFL point spread pick

We are going with 3 home spread picks this week, which makes me wonder if the models are a bit biased towards home teams...investigating. Anyways, I'm liking the Patriots crushing the Chargers and Washington as a home dog. Oakland surprised me last week against KC, I really thought we had that game. Unfortunately, any time a team has a chance to finish the game they play conservatively, run the ball 3 times and punt rather than putting the other team out of their misery. I'm not so fond of Carolina but Tampa Bay is potentially the worst team on the league. Other picks I liked were Seattle against a Houston defense without JJ Watt, fading the Steelers and taking Detroit as a home dog on SNF (I might take this depending on the results of the day games).

This NFL week 8 we stay at 15% of bankroll split into 4 games gives us a bet of $400 per NFL football game (ok that's a bit more than 15% bc I rounded). Watch for that 5th pick on Sunday Night Football if the picks go 2-2 or worse. As always, let us know in the comments questions your lock of the week. This week our lock is the Patriots at home, without buying the half point.

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
LA CHARGERS @ NEW ENGLAND -7.5 -20.4 -12.89 61.1
DALLAS @ WASHINGTON 2.5 -3.3 -5.83 60.5
OAKLAND @ BUFFALO -3.0 -12.7 -9.67 58.0
CAROLINA @ TAMPA BAY -2.5 -1.0 1.50 57.6
PITTSBURGH @ DETROIT 3.0 9.3 6.33 56.0
HOUSTON @ SEATTLE -5.5 -8.0 -3.50 55.9
INDIANAPOLIS @ CINCINNATI -10.0 -8.0 2.00 54.4
ATLANTA @ NY JETS 4.5 8.6 4.15 52.2
MIAMI @ BALTIMORE -3.5 -6.7 -3.19 50.0
SAN FRANCISCO @ PHILADELPHIA -13.0 -13.6 -0.60 50.0
DENVER @ KANSAS CITY -7.5 -8.0 -1.50 50.0
CHICAGO @ NEW ORLEANS -9.0 -10.0 -1.00 50.0
MINNESOTA @ CLEVELAND 9.5 12.0 2.50 48.4

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

2017 Week 7 NFL Point Spread Picks

Pick 1: Kansas City -3 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: NY Giants +5.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: Pittsburgh -5 correct NFL point spread pick

Finally got my machine learning NFL spread models to work on Python and export the info into HTML! Exciting for a geek like me. Still working on a few formating details (like the number of decimals) but wanted to get it out there so you can see the results from all the games. Of course, I do recommend on betting the top games based on my percent confidence in the model calculation. Some of my models have been improved to take advantage of the tools now available that weren't there before. This gives me optimism to finish this season way high.

The 2017 ATS Standings are now posted and available from the top navigation bar of the page.

Ok so this week we again stay at 15% of bankroll split into 3 games gives us a bet of $520 per NFL football game. Remember that historically my models have performed much better by the end of the season and especially the playoffs which is why some years we finish below 50% throughout the year but positive on bankroll. Good luck! and yes, stay away from the Packers game...and please share your thoughts on which is your sure pick of the week, mine is KC (5-0 ATS this year, killing it!).

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
KANSAS CITY @ OAKLAND 3.00 16.50 13.50 63.2
SEATTLE @ NY GIANTS 5.50 4.37 -1.13 59.1
CINCINNATI @ PITTSBURGH -5.00 -6.17 -1.17 58.9
TAMPA BAY @ BUFFALO -3.00 -4.56 -1.56 56.9
ARIZONA @ LA RAMS(LONDON) -3.50 -9.44 -5.94 54.9
DALLAS @ SAN FRANCISCO 6.00 9.30 3.30 54.3
BALTIMORE @ MINNESOTA -5.50 -9.04 -3.54 54.2
TENNESSEE @ CLEVELAND 5.50 7.26 1.76 53.7
CAROLINA @ CHICAGO 3.50 5.00 1.50 53.7
NY JETS @ MIAMI -3.00 -5.85 -2.85 53.5
ATLANTA @ NEW ENGLAND -3.50 3.50 7.00 50.9
WASHINGTON @ PHILADELPHIA -5.00 -1.56 3.44 49.0
JACKSONVILLE @ INDIANAPOLIS 3.00 12.99 9.99 47.1
DENVER @ LA CHARGERS -1.50 -0.11 1.39 42.7
NEW ORLEANS @ GREEN BAY 5.50 11.85 6.35 NA

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

2017 Week 6 NFL Point Spread Picks

Pick 1: Houston -7.5 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Baltimore -6.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: Jacksonville -1 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 4: San Francisco +11 correct NFL point spread pick

Not a bad start! Hope the streak continues this week. Lots of good stuff happening in the back end of NFL pickles machine learning picks. Unfortunately, the front end is still in the works.

We continue soft betting only 15% of the bank. This week we bet 4 games and distribute $400 per game. Lets continue the NFL season strong and let me know what picks you have, which ones you agree with and which ones you strongly disagree. Also, if there is another NFL game that you're confident in, please post it on the comment section.

2017 Week 5 NFL Spread Picks

Pick 1: Indianapolis -1.5 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Oakland -2.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: Green Bay +2.5 correct NFL point spread pick

The computerized machine learning picks are running wild! While I continue to work on the important transition that will set us up for the next 10 years (using open source tools and better analytical algorithms) I can only put the top picks since I don't have the HTML output yet. I'm really hoping next week if I put the hours at night that I need to. Regardless, I'm excited to start the official picks this week with 3 picks I feel good about as you can see above. The other pick I didn't put is the Bears with their #2 pick on the draft starting Monday Night. Depending how things go during the week, I might add it.

As we have done in the past, we will start with a hypothetical $10,000 in the bank. We start the season soft betting only 15% of the bank and as the season progresses we increase up to 30%. This week we bet $1500 total distributed $500 per game. Lets start the season strong and let me know what picks you have, which ones you agree with and which ones you strongly disagree. Also, if there is another NFL game that you're confident in, please post it on the comment section.

2017 Week 4 Point Spread Picks

Pick 1: Baltimore +3 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Green Bay -7 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: Atlanta -8.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 4: Philadelphia +1 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 5: Indianapolis +13 incorrect NFL point spread pick

Hi there NFL Point Spread Stats geeks. I have the machine learning models running on Python with the latest data! That's the good news. The bad news is that I haven't finished the HTML outputs I used to do to display all the stats in the section below. So this week, you will get the results of my stat models with the top 5 picks (above) and hopefully by next week I will have the table outputs that we are all used to. Looking forward to a winning NFL spread picks season. Let the games begin!

Under Construction Until Week 5 (or before)

Fans, sorry for this, lots things going on. The delay is me changing all the statistical coding into a new language (Python). Should take 2 or 3 weeks at the most. Picks are pretty crappy in the first few weeks anyways, so I'm doing you a favor. Best of luck!