2014 NFL Betting Picks - Week 9

Two losing weeks in a row starts to get me a bit nervous. Regardless of the long-term strategy, we need to pick up the pace this week with 4 solid picks. I felt that all three picks last week were the right ones given the circumstances and the data. This week I'm also feeling comfortable with the games that were selected by the probability of covering the spread as well as the final pick. Below you will find the free nfl point spread picks for the non-premium picks and members should be receiving the premium picks shortly.

This week we again use 18% of bankroll split evenly across our 4 premium games giving us a bet of about $420 per game. Below are the computer-based NFL point spread predictions for week 9 of the NFL:

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
SAN DIEGO @ MIAMI -1.5 Buy premium picks 61.0%
INDIANAPOLIS @ NY GIANTS 3 60.8%
PHILADELPHIA @ HOUSTON 2 58.5%
NY JETS @ KANSAS CITY -9.5 57.5%
ST LOUIS @ SAN FRANCISCO -10 -13.6 -3.6 54.3%
OAKLAND @ SEATTLE -15 -20.0 -5.0 54.3%
DENVER @ NEW ENGLAND 3 6.3 3.3 54.1%
WASHINGTON @ MINNESOTA 0 2.9 2.9 50.0%
TAMPA BAY @ CLEVELAND -6.5 -5.8 0.7 50.0%
BALTIMORE @ PITTSBURGH 0 2.3 2.3 50.0%
ARIZONA @ DALLAS -3.5 0.1 3.6 49.7%
NEW ORLEANS @ CAROLINA 3 -5.0 -8.0 49.1%
JACKSONVILLE @ CINCINNATI -11 -18.5 -7.5 48.4%

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

2014 NFL Betting Picks - Week 8

Pick 1: Cincinnati -1 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Indianapolis -3.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: Green Bay +1 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Everybody calm down. That's what my friend reminded me to do after Sunday night. I was extremely disappointed with last week's results, as you probably were. The important thing to remember is that this is a long term strategy and the goal is to win money in the long run (end of the year). Although at this point we're back were we started, there is still a lot of football to be played and good money to potentially win. I've been here before and have bounced back. This week I removed the night games from being premium to provide the maximum number of free NFL point spread picks .

This week we use 18% of bankroll again split evenly across our 3 premium games giving us a bet of about $600 per game. Below are the computer-based NFL point spread predictions for week 8:

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
BALTIMORE @ CINCINNATI -1 -6.0 -5.0 65.7%
INDIANAPOLIS @ PITTSBURGH 3.5 9.5 6.0 62.7%
GREEN BAY @ NEW ORLEANS -1 3.0 4.0 59.6%
SEATTLE @ CAROLINA 5 2.6 -2.4 55.3%
CHICAGO @ NEW ENGLAND -6.5 -8.0 -1.5 54.3%
DETROIT - ATLANTA 4 5.5 1.5 53.4%
BUFFALO @ NY JETS -3 -0.5 2.5 52.3%
ST LOUIS @ KANSAS CITY -7 -12.7 -5.7 51.4%
MIAMI @ JACKSONVILLE 5.5 5.9 0.4 50.0%
SAN DIEGO @ DENVER -8 -7.7 0.3 50.0%
WASHINGTON @ DALLAS -10 -10.4 -0.4 50.0%
OAKLAND @ CLEVELAND -7 -4.5 2.5 50.0%
PHILADELPHIA @ ARIZONA -2.5 -1.3 1.2 49.3%
MINNESOTA @ TAMPA BAY -3 -7.4 -4.4 48.6%
HOUSTON @ TENNESSEE 1.5 -0.6 -2.1 48.5%

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

2014 NFL Betting Picks - Week 7

Pick 1: Seattle -7 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: San Francisco +6.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: Miami +4 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 4: Buffalo -5.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick

After spending plenty of time doing research and enjoying the games (did you witness the Denver Vegas moment?!), my wife asked that I sell the picks. She understands the value that a VP in Analytics can provide to sports investors so she's encouraging me to do so (or else). I have posted 5 Reasons Why You Want to Buy NFLpickles' Picks on the subscription page. They include my 100% guarantee, my record, experience, transparency, focus on NFL point spreads and affordable prices.

For only $199 you get all the picks until the end of the season + playoffs. These type of picks go for about $500 in other places. These places try to sell you picks in every sport you can imagine by sports fanatics and not experienced data scientists.

Get ALL 2014 NFLpickles' Point Spread Picks
100% Guarantee - If all picks go under 50% ATS, I'll give you your money back

Many of you have followed me since I started in 2007 and know my record: 4 winning seasons in the past 6 years, and one break even. All my stats by year are on the side bar and you can access every pick I've made since 2007, that's transparency. Do notice that I've kept the majority of the picks free, but premium picks are only provided to members.

We raise the bankroll this week to use 18% of bankroll split evenly across 4 games giving us a bet of $490 per game. Here is the full list of NFL betting spread predictions for week 7:

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
SEATTLE @ ST LOUIS 7 11.1 4.1 61.5%
SAN FRANCISCO @ DENVER -6.5 -2.7 3.8 58.2%
MIAMI @ CHICAGO -4 -1.5 2.5 58.1%
MINNESOTA @ BUFFALO -5.5 -9.8 -4.3 58.0%
ARIZONA @ OAKLAND 4 8.8 4.8 56.7%
KANSAS CITY @ SAN DIEGO -4 -3.0 1.0 55.5%
CLEVELAND @ JACKSONVILLE 6 8 2/0 55.3%
NY JETS @ NEW ENGLAND * -10 -14.3 -4.3 54.3%
TENNESSEE @ WASHINGTON -6 -7.2 -1.2 53.3%
HOUSTON @ PITTSBURGH * -3.5 -3.7 -0.2 50.0%
NEW ORLEANS @ DETROIT -3 -3.3 -0.3 50.0%
CAROLINA @ GREEN BAY -7 -5.0 2.0 50.0%
CINCINNATI @ INDIANAPOLIS -3.5 -1.5 2.0 48.3%
NY GIANTS @ DALLAS -6.5 -10.2 -3.7 47.8%
ATLANTA @ BALTIMORE -7 -11.0 -4.0 47.8%

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

2014 NFL Betting Picks - Week 6

Pick 1: Indianapolis -3 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Pittsburgh +2.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: San Diego -7 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 4: Denver -9 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 5: Philadelphia -2.5 correct NFL point spread pick

Great week last week, although not perfect. Everyone tuned in to #MNF? Classic Vegas finish; I was surprised it had to go to that and Seattle didn't blow out that game earlier. San Diego shutting out the Jets is the kind of prediction that I want my models to capture. Predicting blow outs should in theory be easier. Outliers, injuries, among other factors make this a statistical hard problem.

This week we try to predict two blowouts, San Diego again and Denver (Jets weakness again). Interestingly, we also have 4 visiting teams vs only one home team. Thursday and Sunday night should be fun. Good luck everyone!

We continue using 15% of bankroll split evenly across games giving us a bet of $320 per game. Here is the full list of NFL betting spread predictions for week 6:

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
INDIANAPOLIS @ HOUSTON 3 8.7 5.7 59.7%
PITTSBURGH @ CLEVELAND -2.5 3.1 5.6 59.0%
SAN DIEGO @ OAKLAND 7 18.9 11.9 58.4%
DENVER @ NY JETS 9 19.2 10.2 57.1%
NY GIANTS @ PHILADELPHIA -2.5 -10.2 -7.7 57.1%
NEW ENGLAND @ BUFFALO 3 -0.4 -3.4 55.8%
BALTIMORE @ TAMPA BAY 3.5 1.9 -1.6 55.3%
SAN FRANCISCO @ ST LOUIS 3.5 6.0 2.5 52.6%
WASHINGTON @ ARIZONA -3 -5.6 -2.6 52.1%
CAROLINA @ CINCINNATI -7 -6.8 0.2 50.0%
CHICAGO @ ATLANTA -3 0.6 3.6 50.0%
JACKSONVILLE @ TENNESSEE -6 -10.0 -4.0 50.0%
GREEN BAY @ MIAMI 3.5 -4.1 -7.6 49.6%
DALLAS @ SEATTLE -8 -11.7 -3.7 49.5%
DETROIT @ MINNESOTA 2 4.1 2.1 48.3%

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

2014 NFL Betting Picks - Week 5

Pick 1: Seattle -7 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Cincinnati -1.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: San Diego -7 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 4: Tennessee +1.5 correct NFL point spread pick

What the hell is wrong with Carolina? One of the best defenses of the league last year. The team has definitely changed from last year so after two weeks in a row of losing that bet, I'll keep away from them until more data is in. Buffalo was close and don't think I should have changed that bet. I should have evaluated the Dallas #MNF and Indianapolis confidence percentage. Like my friend told me during a kids birthday parties as I checked results over my phone, it's about the long run. My response is that I get that, but it's much better to say how many winning seasons one gets.

This week we try to capitalize on the Redskins QB weakness, ride on New England's issues, keep betting our favorite pony and best ATS record Chargers, and two bad teams guessing the home team is slightly better. Cool thing is that we have SNF and MNF games.

Since we are now in week 5, we up to 15% of bankroll split evenly across games giving us a bet of $360 per game. Here is the full list of NFL betting spread predictions:

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
SEATTLE @ WASHINGTON 7 13.0 6 61.5%
CINCINNATI @ NEW ENGLAND 1.5 4.2 2.7 60.0%
NY JETS @ SAN DIEGO -7 -19.1 -12.1 59.0%
CLEVELAND @ TENNESSEE 1.5 -4.2 -6.7 58.6%
ATLANTA @ NY GIANTS -4 -4.9 -0.9 56.3%
ST LOUIS @ PHILADELPHIA -7 -8.0 -1.0 54.6%
BALTIMORE @ INDIANAPOLIS -3.5 -5.2 -1.7 54.4%
TAMPA BAY @ NEW ORLEANS -10 -7.0 3.0 52.7%
HOUSTON @ DALLAS -6 -12.1 -6.1 51.4%
CHICAGO @ CAROLINA -2.5 -4.9 -2.4 50.0%
BUFFALO @ DETROIT -7 -6.5 0.5 50.0%
ARIZONA @ DENVER -7.5 -7.3 0.2 50.0%
MINNESOTA @ GREEN BAY -9 -7.4 1.6 50.0%
PITTSBURGH @ JACKSONVILLE 7 4.4 -2.6 49.7%
KANSAS CITY @ SAN FRANCISCO -6.5 -2.2 4.3 48.4%

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

2014 NFL Betting Picks - Week 4

Pick 1: Buffalo +3 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Carolina +3.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: San Diego -13.5 correct NFL point spread pick

We were close of pulling a 3-1 but the Eagles cost us great at the end. Carolina was dissapointing, but since this blog is based on data-driven or some call it computerized picks, they are showing again this week and I'm sticking by them. Sorry for the late post, I had a little trouble updating the data yesterday. Some of you have caught on, but to know what's going on with picks you can check out my Twitter account.

This will be the last week with 12% of bankroll split evenly across games giving us a bet of $415 per game. Here is the full list of NFL betting spread predictions:

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
BUFFALO @ HOUSTON -3 0.9 3.9 62.1%
CAROLINA @ BALTIMORE -3.5 5.1 8.6 58.3%
JACKSONVILLE @ SAN DIEGO -13.5 -21.8 -8.3 57.0%
TENNESSEE @ INDIANAPOLIS -7.5 -9.8 -2.3 56.4%
PHILADELPHIA @ SAN FRANCISCO -5 -11.1 -6.1 56.0%
NY GIANTS @ WASHINGTON -3.5 -1.7 1.8 53.6%
ATLANTA @ MINNESOTA 3 -0.1 -3.1 52.7%
TAMPA BAY @ PITTSBURGH -7.5 -2.5 5.0 50.0%
NEW ORLEANS @ DALLAS 3 0.4 -2.6 50.0%
MIAMI @ OAKLAND 4 1.2 -2.8 50.0%
OAKLAND @ MIAMI -4 -7.5 -3.5 50.0%
DETROIT @ NY JETS 2 -0.6 -2.6 49.5%
GREEN BAY @ CHICAGO 1.5 -2.2 -3.7 49.5%
NEW ENGLAND @ KANSAS CITY 3.5 -6.7 -10.2 48.3%

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

2014 NFL Betting Picks - Week 3

Pick 1: San Diego +2.5 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Carolina -3.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: Philadelphia -6.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 4: Indianapolis -6.5 correct NFL point spread pick

Not a bad start! Had I played with emotions rather than data, I would have picked my Bears and gone 4-0. Ahh, in hindsight everything seems so easy. This week we have another set of exciting data-driven NFL point spread predictions. I'm liking how the models continue to hate on Jacksonville and give them no chance even at home. Carolina is playing great D and with Newton back I'm surprised they are seen almost as even against Pittsburgh. Philadelphia started slow on MNF but their offense is showing that many players can pick up the team when needed, it was Sproles' turn yesterday. San Diego had a huge upset last week and I see them giving the Bills a hard time going to 3-0.

We continue this week with 12% of bankroll split evenly across games giving us a bet of $315 per game. Here is the full list of NFL betting spread predictions:

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
SAN DIEGO @ BUFFALO -2.5 4.3 6.8 62.9%
PITTSBURGH @ CAROLINA -3.5 -14.3 -10.8 60.7%
WASHINGTON @ PHILADELPHIA -6.5 -13.1 -6.6 59.1%
INDIANAPOLIS @ JACKSONVILLE 6.5 9.6 3.1 57.0%
DALLAS @ ST LOUIS 2.5 -2.2 -4.7 56.6%
TAMPA BAY @ ATLANTA -6.5 -5.2 1.3 55.8%
BALTIMORE @ CLEVELAND 2 3.1 1.1 55.1%
DENVER @ SEATTLE -4.5 -2.8 1.7 55.6%
GREEN BAY @ DETROIT -1 0.4 1.4 52.9%
KANSAS CITY @ MIAMI -5 3.8 8.8 50.0%
OAKLAND @ NEW ENGLAND -14.5 -15.0 -0.5 50.0%
SAN FRANCISCO @ ARIZONA 3 4.2 1.2 50.0%
TENNESSEE @ CINCINNATI -7 -8.2 -1.2 49.9%
CHICAGO @ NY JETS -2.5 -6.1 -3.6 49.7%
MINNESOTA @ NEW ORLEANS -9.5 -12.5 -3.0 48.9%
HOUSTON @ NY GIANTS 2.5 -3.0 -5.5 48.3%

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

NFL Betting Picks - Week 2

Pick 1: Washington -5.5 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Arizona -2.5 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: Kansas City +13 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 4: San Francisco -7 incorrect NFL point spread pick

My wife was listening to NFL Radio on SiriusXM on her commute to work. As a psychiatrist, she started analyzing every caller and convinced me that my picks should be very relevant from the beginning of the season. Her argument is that people are very emotional at the beginning of the season because they have high hopes for their teams given the clean slate. She argues that could be a big reason why the first week picks were successful.

My response to that is that given I only analyze team level data, my models have a big assumption(that I have to continuously check and hope you help): team composition/competitiveness is nearly constant in recent games. That means that if for example St Louis has a new QB and not enough data has been gathered with Shaun Hill, then the Rams' computer spread forecasts should be avoided because their skill level is not the same as previous recent games.

We will start tabulating results this week. All are official picks from now on. To be more conservative, we'll start with a smaller bankroll percentage in the first few weeks 12% until week 5 where will step up to 15% and go up to possibly 25% towards the end of the season depending on success rates. Here are week 2 NFL point spread predictions:

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
JACKSONVILLE @ WASHINGTON -5.5 -9.3 -3.8 63.0%
ARIZONA @ NY GIANTS 2.5 5.6 3.1 59.8%
KANSAS CITY @ DENVER -13 -9.1 3.9 57.1%
CHICAGO @ SAN FRANCISCO -7 -19.0 -12.0 57.0%
PHILADELPHIA @ INDIANAPOLIS -3 -4.5 -1.5 51.4%
NEW ENGLAND @ MINNESOTA 3.5 8.7 5.2 51.1%
DETROIT @ CAROLINA -2.5 -5.2 -2.7 50.0%
ST LOUIS @ TAMPA BAY -6 -5.0 1.0 50.0%
PITTSBURGH @ BALTIMORE -2.5 -0.6 1.9 50.0%
DALLAS @ TENNESSEE -3.5 -2.3 1.2 50.0%
ATLANTA @ CINCINNATI -5 -10.5 -5.5 49.9%
SEATTLE @ SAN DIEGO 6 5.3 -0.7 49.0%
HOUSTON @ OAKLAND 3 -5.4 -8.4 49.0%
NEW ORLEANS @ CLEVELAND 6.5 13.5 7.0 48.3%
MIAMI @ BUFFALO 1 -0.2 -1.2 48.3%
NY JETS @ GREEN BAY -8.5 -3.8 4.7 47.4%

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

2014 NFL Betting Picks - Week 1

Pick 1: Cincinnati +1.5 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: New Orleans -3 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: Philadelphia -10 correct NFL point spread pick

Is everyone excited to kick off a new season? I'm extremely excited to continue providing transparent free data-driven NFL point spread picks. The format for this year will be the same as last year. Green picks have expected probability of covering the spread higher than 60 and yellow's threshold is 57.

These are unofficial NFL picks! Just like in my previous years, the picks from week 1 to week 5 are purely informational. My predictive models need at least 4 to 5 weeks of data from this year in order to be reliable. In total, my picks do much better by the end of the season and during the playoffs. I know it's hard to see these picks and not be tempted to use them, but stick with me and we'll get you a large positive ROI. That's the goal!

This year I made a few tweaks to the blog so that's it's easier for you to see historical information. If you scroll down and look on the right hand side, find the LABEL section. Now we can click on any week or year and see my picks for all the years in a given week. For example, how have week 1 picks historically done? You can simply click on Week 1 to see.

I didn't have time to finish a trend report I'm working on. Trying to add a bit more meat to what's already available out there. Honestly, it is very hard to find any "trend" when simply looking at homedogs, team, or any high level stats with a big enough sample. I'm also trying to go back in time for the NFL picks and get a better sense when the NFL picks perform better. Stay tuned.

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
CINCINNATI @ BALTIMORE -1.5 3.2 4.7 61.4%
NEW ORLEANS @ ATLANTA 3 7.4 4.4 57.8%
JACKSONVILLE @ PHILADELPHIA -10 -15.4 -5.4 57.3%
CAROLINA @ TAMPA BAY -1 9.5 10.5 56.1%
BUFFALO @ CHICAGO -6.5 -4.5 2.0 55.8%
NEW ENGLAND @ MIAMI 4.5 3.2 -1.3 54.1%
OAKLAND @ NY JETS -5 -8.7 -3.7 53.8%
SAN DIEGO @ ARIZONA -3 -2.3 0.7 53.8%
NY GIANTS @ DETROIT -5 -4.0 1.0 51.5%
CLEVELAND @ PITTSBURGH -6.5 -6.1 0.4 51.5%
GREEN BAY @ SEATTLE -6 -13.8 -7.8 51.4%
INDIANAPOLIS @ DENVER -7.5 -14.3 -6.8 51.1%
WASHINGTON @ HOUSTON -2.5 -0.9 1.6 50.0%
SAN FRANCISCO @ DALLAS 5 8.0 3.0 50.0%
MINNESOTA @ ST LOUIS -4 -8.3 -4.3 49.7%
TENNESSEE @ KANSAS CITY -4 -12.0 -8.0 48.2%

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

2013 Recap from NFLPickles - Short Story, Great Finish

What a great way to end the year! That puts me at 5-1 in Super Bowl Picks but a lowsy 3-6 in Conference Championship for the last 4 years. Terrible, so the 57% is driven mostly by Wildcard and Divisional games.

Except for this year! The 3-0 finish puts on at total season percentage of 55%, boy it could've ended ugly but it didn't. What's impressive and more important are the yearly totals, think long term, "it's sports investing" I tell my wife. 6 seasons, 1 went under 42%, 1 broke even 52%, and 4 went positive: 55%, 56% (2008), 60% last year, and 62% (2009).

Some claim I should have more this year and some say I should have less.  I hear the points from both sides. These have inspired my next year's resolutions:

Next year:
 - I have to be more aware of injuries, I could've saved 2 to 3 games. It's the low hanging fruit. 
 - I will go to Vegas for an NFL weekend, late in the season (when my record is much better)
 - Provide a comprehensive report to all my premium members: "Trends Against the Spread(ATS)"
 - Regular season picks will remain free.
 - I will give Twitter and Facebook ads a run for its money.

Thank you all for your great support,

Jaime