2013 Recap from NFLPickles - Short Story, Great Finish

What a great way to end the year! That puts me at 5-1 in Super Bowl Picks but a lowsy 3-6 in Conference Championship for the last 4 years. Terrible, so the 57% is driven mostly by Wildcard and Divisional games.

Except for this year! The 3-0 finish puts on at total season percentage of 55%, boy it could've ended ugly but it didn't. What's impressive and more important are the yearly totals, think long term, "it's sports investing" I tell my wife. 6 seasons, 1 went under 42%, 1 broke even 52%, and 4 went positive: 55%, 56% (2008), 60% last year, and 62% (2009).

Some claim I should have more this year and some say I should have less.  I hear the points from both sides. These have inspired my next year's resolutions:

Next year:
 - I have to be more aware of injuries, I could've saved 2 to 3 games. It's the low hanging fruit. 
 - I will go to Vegas for an NFL weekend, late in the season (when my record is much better)
 - Provide a comprehensive report to all my premium members: "Trends Against the Spread(ATS)"
 - Regular season picks will remain free.
 - I will give Twitter and Facebook ads a run for its money.

Thank you all for your great support,

Jaime

Super Bowl Pick Against the Spread

Super Bowl Pick: Seattle +2.5 correct NFL point spread pick

I'm still excited about last week's outcome. Watching Seattle get that interception at the end of the game was nerve wrecking. Watching Payton dominate the Patriots was exciting. Now, it's definitely hard to make a choice.

As many of you know, the point spread for this year's Super Bowl opened at 0 and quickly moved to 2.5 for Denver (you may find it at 2 in some places today). Regardless, today is at 2.5 and it is what we are using. I'm on a win big or go home mindset, which makes me happy to see that the confidence for the Super Bowl is high enough to make a pick this year (unlike last year). But I'll remember that the bankroll separated for the Big Game was already under the percentage of the Championship game, that is 25% for 3 games (championship and super bowl) or $600 in our example.

Two great teams that do not surprise anyone where they are. They both deserve to be there, now the question is who will close the deal.

It is worth noting that Seattle had the best defense in terms of points allowed (14.4 vs 24.9) but Denver had by far the best offense getting 37.9ppg vs 26.1. So the question for you is, are you betting for offense or defense? For me I just run my numbers and provide the results. It'll be one of the best Super Bowls ever. Good luck to everyone!


GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
DENVER - SEATTLE 2.5 -1 -3.5 58.1%


How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.

NFL Point Spread Picks - Conference Playoffs

Pick 1: Seattle -3.5 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Denver -4.5 correct NFL point spread pick

UPDATE: Perfect picks for Conference Champioship. Super Bowl pick for members coming tomorrow.

Last week was my worst playoff week in 6 years. It was rough and unexpected. One spread moved in our favor but at the end some touchdowns that shouldn't have been scored were and some that should have been scored were punted away. Needless to say that we still have three games to go. Our exclusive members will get winning picks for the coming 3 games or their money back (too late to get the last 3 remaining picks). Keep calm Jaime, this was stressful. The worst we can do now is double down thinking we can recover faster from last week's loss. Will continue 25% of bankroll for the last 3 games (that's around $600 per game in our tracking) including the super bowl. These will be the last picks of the year so for those that supported me this year I thank you and regardless of the final outcome, I will continue my search for ineffeciencies in the NFL point spread market.


GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
SAN FRANCISCO @ SEATTLE -3.5 -8.6 -5.1 59.3%
NEW ENGLAND @ DENVER -4.5 -10.3 -5.8 57.8%


How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.

NFL Point Spread Picks - Divisional Playoffs 2013

Pick 1: Denver -8 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: New Orleans +8.5 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: Indianapolis -7.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 4: Carolina +2 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Playoff picks are only available to exclusive members. If you're an exclusive member and have yet to receive the picks, please contact me.


GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
SAN DIEGO @ DENVER -9.5 -11.5 -2 64.9%
NEW ORLEANS @ SEATTLE -8.5 -4.9 3.6 59.9%
INDIANAPOLIS @ NEW ENGLAND -7 -3.9 3.1 58.4%
SAN FRANCISCO @ CAROLINA 2 -1.4 -3.4 56.3%


How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.

NFL Point Spread Picks - Playoffs

Pick 1: San Francisco -3 PUSH
Pick 2: San Diego +7 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: Philadelphia -2.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 4: Kansas City +2.5 correct NFL point spread pick
We've had a good run this year. 54% for the year and 57% the last 8 weeks. For the past 6 years I've been giving you every week free picks generated by an algorithm I created while studying a Ph.D. in Mathematics. I've since improved the formula much with the knowledge attained through the years. I've been studying NFL point spreads for the past 7 years and posting my picks here for the past 5 years, at no cost. Last year I decided to generate a bit of money to pay for the minor expenses in time and resources that this takes.

Get ALL 2013 NFL playoff picks for $79
100% Guarantee - If all playoff picks go under 50% ATS, I'll give you your money back


Why am I charging for picks now?
For a few reasons, here they are in no specific order:
  • I like pressure. If I don't perform (under 50% ATS), I lose you don't. 
  • They are worth every penny, especially the playoff picks.
  • Every year my wife tells me to.
What do you get?
For $50 you will receive all the weekly picks throughout the playoffs. It's not $79 a week, it's $79 for all Wildcard, Divisional, Conference, and Super Bowl games.

Who am I?
Jaime Brugueras, Ph.D. in Statistics from the University of Illinois. I'm the Analytics head at a fast growing marketing analytics company. I've been posting my picks since 2006, putting myself out there like no other NFL handicapper. Now after a 54% 2012 season you've witnessed, 56% through 5 years, and a 62% ATS record during the playoffs, I feel confident that this will generate profits for people who seriously bet on NFL games.

What are you waiting for? Get your picks
You have nothing to lose. If you don't win, neither do I.


GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
SAN FRANCISCO @ GREEN BAY 3 7.3 4.3 63.0%
SAN DIEGO @ CINCINNATI -7 -4.9 2.1 59.0%
NEW ORLEANS @ PHILADELPHIA -2.5 -5.1 -2.6 58.4%
KANSAS CITY @ INDIANAPOLIS -2.5 3.5 6.0 56.3%


How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.

Unofficial Spread Picks for Week 17

I have never placed bets on the last week of the season. Similar to the off season, there are teams that have already qualified and might sit their QBs or teams that are so at the bottom that it might even be beneficial for them to stay there. Since I believe some players and coaches might not be giving their 100% effort, I've always stayed away from this week. When I started this blog, I wouldn't even run the numbers but I quickly learned that some of you still like to see them. So here are the automated point spread picks from NFLpickles:

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
CLEVELAND @ PITTSBURGH -7 -6.1 0.9 63.0%
NY JETS @ MIAMI -7 -6.5 0.5 63.0%
BALTIMORE @ CINCINNATI -6.5 -7.2 -0.7 60.0%
SAN FRANCISCO @ ARIZONA 3 6.3 3.3 55.1%
JACKSONVILLE @ INDIANAPOLIS -11 -15.8 -4.8 54.8%
BUFFALO @ NEW ENGLAND -9.5 -10.9 -1.4 53.1%
ST LOUIS @ SEATTLE -10 -12.0 -2.0 53.1%
HOUSTON @ TENNESSEE -6.5 -9.4 -2.9 51.0%
WASHINGTON @ NY GIANTS -4 -1.9 2.1 50.0%
DETROIT @ MINNESOTA -3.5 -2.2 1.3 50.0%
TAMPA BAY @ NEW ORLEANS -13 -13.3 -0.3 50.0%
CAROLINA @ ATLANTA 7 8.6 1.6 50.0%
KANSAS CITY @ SAN DIEGO -9.5 -0.3 9.2 49.8%
DENVER @ OAKLAND 13 13.3 0.3 48.4%
PHILADELPHIA @ DALLAS 7.5 -6.0 -13.5 NA

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

NFL Point Spread Picks Week 16 - 2013

Pick 1: St Louis -5 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Indianapolis +7 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: New England +2.5 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 4: San Francisco -13 incorrect NFL point spread pick

We continue our struggles this year with last week going again 1-2 (by merely one point away from going 2-1). Many of you have asked me to do a broader study on trends regarding homedogs, division and other things that we should probably at least be aware of. I promise I will do so at least in the off-season if not before. Now that I've just started my vacation, I might grab a night to query my 15 year database and see what comes out. I can't promise anything soon as I'm expecting a new member of the family some time soon and don't know how all that will pan out. This will be the last week of regular season picks and then we'll go strong on the playoffs and will hopefully continue my average of 55% during playoffs.
For the second week in a row, we use 20% of bankroll for the 4 picks above. That's $455 per pick. See table below for automated predictions of NFL games week 16 against the spread.

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
TAMPA BAY @ ST LOUIS -5 -7.4 -2.4 62.0%
INDIANAPOLIS @ KANSAS CITY -7 -4.8 2.2 61.5%
NEW ENGLAND @ BALTIMORE -2.5 1.1 3.6 58.1%
ATLANTA @ SAN FRANCISCO -13 -18.2 -5.2 57.5%
NY GIANTS @ DETROIT -9 -7.8 1.2 54.8%
DALLAS @ WASHINGTON 3 1.9 -1.1 53.7%
ARIZONA @ SEATTLE -10.5 -12.9 -2.4 53.1%
NEW ORLEANS @ CAROLINA -3.5 -6.4 -2.9 51.9%
DENVER @ HOUSTON 10.5 14.8 4.3 51.9%
MINNESOTA @ CINCINNATI -7.5 -9.0 -1.5 51.0%
CHICAGO @ PHILADELPHIA -3 -0.6 2.4 50.3%
TENNESSEE @ JACKSONVILLE 5.5 6.7 1.2 50.0%
MIAMI @ BUFFALO 3 2.8 -0.2 49.9%
CLEVELAND @ NY JETS -2 -6.5 -4.5 49.3%
OAKLAND @ SAN DIEGO -10 -9.4 0.6 48.1%
PITTSBURGH @ GREEN BAY 0 -6.4 -6.4 NA

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

NFL Point Spread Picks Week 15 - 2013

Pick 1: Baltimore +6 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Denver -10.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: Carolina -11 incorrect NFL point spread pick

And back to negative ROI... For this week, NFL predictions below, hoping that Cutler doesn't play for the Bears, if he does this pick might be removed (UPDATE: Bears pick has been removed). Two more weeks of regular season and then we start the playoffs. We're upping our bankroll for the reason of the season to 20% per week. For week 15 of the NFL, we have a total of 3 predictions for a total of $640 per game. Here are the NFL picks against the spread for week 15 of 2013.

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
BALTIMORE @ DETROIT -6 -0.9 5.1 61.9%
SAN DIEGO @ DENVER -10.5 -13.9 -3.4 58.5%
NY JETS @ CAROLINA -11 -18.5 -7.5 58.5%
CINCINNATI @ PITTSBURGH 3 6.8 3.8 55.1%
SAN FRANCISCO @ TAMPA BAY 6 10.5 4.5 55.1%
ARIZONA @ TENNESSEE 3 0.0 -3.0 53.7%
NEW ENGLAND @ MIAMI 3 1.4 -1.6 53.7%
BUFFALO @ JACKSONVILLE 1.5 3.3 1.8 53.3%
HOUSTON @ INDIANAPOLIS -6.5 -8.7 -2.2 51.0%
WASHINGTON @ ATLANTA -6.5 -7.2 -0.7 50.0%
SEATTLE @ NY GIANTS 7 11.8 4.8 50.0%
KANSAS CITY @ OAKLAND 5 5.2 0.2 49.3%
NEW ORLEANS @ ST LOUIS 6 8.3 2.3 49.0%
PHILADELPHIA @ MINNESOTA 6 -1.1 -7.1 48.1%
CHICAGO @ CLEVELAND -1.5 1.9 3.4 NA
GREEN BAY @ DALLAS NA -1.8 NA

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

NFL Point Spread Picks Week 14 - 2013

Pick 1: Carolina +4 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Oakland +2.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: Kansas City -3 correct NFL point spread pick

A great rebound last week to put us finally on positive ROI! First week this year without a pick with over 60% confidence. In other words, all picks are highlighted in yellow. Also this week has all picks for road teams. We're going with the 3 picks listed above without much other further analysis. I did check injury reports, but sometimes they are not updated on Tuesday nights. So please let me know if you see something regarding injuries that you think I should be aware.

I was going to up the percentage to 20 this week, but given that none of the picks are over 60% I'll stick to 18 until we get to the playoffs. For week 14 of the NFL, we have a total of 3 predictions for a total of $615 per game. Here are the NFL picks against the spread for week 14 of 2013. Two weeks of picks left before the playoffs since we're on vacation that week :)

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
CAROLINA @ NEW ORLEANS -4 2.0 6.0 58.2%
OAKLAND @ NY JETS -2.5 2.1 4.6 58.2%
KANSAS CITY @ WASHINGTON 3 7.8 4.8 58.1%
CLEVELAND @ NEW ENGLAND -13 -17.7 -4.7 57.5%
DETROIT @ PHILADELPHIA -3 0.1 3.1 56.2%
HOUSTON @ JACKSONVILLE 3 8.3 5.3 52.1%
TENNESSEE @ DENVER -13 -14.1 -1.1 52.1%
NY GIANTS @ SAN DIEGO -3.5 -5.1 -1.6 51.9%
ST LOUIS @ ARIZONA -6 -3.2 2.8 51.0%
MINNESOTA @ BALTIMORE -7 -6.2 0.8 50.5%
MIAMI @ PITTSBURGH -3.5 3.3 6.8 50.2%
BUFFALO @ TAMPA BAY -3 -3.2 -0.2 49.9%
SEATTLE @ SAN FRANCISCO -2.5 -6.7 -4.2 49.0%
DALLAS @ CHICAGO 2 2.2 0.2 48.5%
INDIANAPOLIS @ CINCINNATI -6 -2.2 3.8 48.4%
ATLANTA @ GREEN BAY NA -8.6 NA NA

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

NFL Point Spread Picks - Thanksgiving Week

Pick 1: Indianapolis -4.5 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Carolina -8 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: Cincinnati +2 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 4: Arizona +3 PUSH

Surprisingly a total 5 picks this week. None of them happening on Thursday so we can all relax and enjoy the time with the family :) I'm more dissapointed in this year's results than anyone else. I still do have hope that they will somehow turn around and that we end up with a good ROI for the year.

We continue to use 18% of bankroll. For week 13 of the NFL, we have a total of 4 predictions for a total of $420 per game. Here are the NFL picks against the spread for week 13 of 2013.

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
TENNESSEE @ INDIANAPOLIS -4.5 -6.4 -1.9 62.5%
TAMPA BAY @ CAROLINA -8 -14.5 -6.5 59.2%
CINCINNATI @ SAN DIEGO -2 1.7 3.7 58.5%
ARIZONA @ PHILADELPHIA -3 2.6 5.6 58.2%
MIAMI @ NY JETS -1 2.6 3.6 53.8%
NY GIANTS @ WASHINGTON 1.5 -5.8 -7.3 54.5%
PITTSBURGH @ BALTIMORE -3 -5.9 -2.9 52.6%
ATLANTA @ BUFFALO -3.5 -1.3 2.2 50.0%
CHICAGO @ MINNESOTA -1 -0.5 0.5 50.0%
DENVER @ KANSAS CITY 5 5.1 0.1 50.0%
GREEN BAY @ DETROIT -6.5 3.8 10.3 49.3%
OAKLAND @ DALLAS -9.5 -8.5 1.0 48.1%
ST LOUIS @ SAN FRANCISCO -9 -19.3 -10.3 47.4%
NEW ENGLAND @ HOUSTON 9 7.1 -1.9 47.3%
NEW ORLEANS @ SEATTLE -6 -2.1 3.9 46.4%
JACKSONVILLE @ CLEVELAND -6.5 -11.7 -5.2 NA

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.