2014 NFL Betting Picks - Week 3

Pick 1: San Diego +2.5
Pick 2: Carolina -3.5
Pick 3: Philadelphia -6.5
Pick 4: Indianapolis -6.5

Not a bad start! Had I played with emotions rather than data, I would have picked my Bears and gone 4-0. Ahh, in hindsight everything seems so easy. This week we have another set of exciting data-driven NFL point spread predictions. I'm liking how the models continue to hate on Jacksonville and give them no chance even at home. Carolina is playing great D and with Newton back I'm surprised they are seen almost as even against Pittsburgh. Philadelphia started slow on MNF but their offense is showing that many players can pick up the team when needed, it was Sproles' turn yesterday. San Diego had a huge upset last week and I see them giving the Bills a hard time going to 3-0.

We continue this week with 12% of bankroll split evenly across games giving us a bet of $315 per game. Here is the full list of NFL betting spread predictions:

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
SAN DIEGO @ BUFFALO -2.5 4.3 6.8 62.9%
PITTSBURGH @ CAROLINA -3.5 -14.3 -10.8 60.7%
WASHINGTON @ PHILADELPHIA -6.5 -13.1 -6.6 59.1%
INDIANAPOLIS @ JACKSONVILLE 6.5 9.6 3.1 57.0%
DALLAS @ ST LOUIS 2.5 -2.2 -4.7 56.6%
TAMPA BAY @ ATLANTA -6.5 -5.2 1.3 55.8%
BALTIMORE @ CLEVELAND 2 3.1 1.1 55.1%
DENVER @ SEATTLE -4.5 -2.8 1.7 55.6%
GREEN BAY @ DETROIT -1 0.4 1.4 52.9%
KANSAS CITY @ MIAMI -5 3.8 8.8 50.0%
OAKLAND @ NEW ENGLAND -14.5 -15.0 -0.5 50.0%
SAN FRANCISCO @ ARIZONA 3 4.2 1.2 50.0%
TENNESSEE @ CINCINNATI -7 -8.2 -1.2 49.9%
CHICAGO @ NY JETS -2.5 -6.1 -3.6 49.7%
MINNESOTA @ NEW ORLEANS -9.5 -12.5 -3.0 48.9%
HOUSTON @ NY GIANTS 2.5 -3.0 -5.5 48.3%

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

NFL Betting Picks - Week 2

Pick 1: Washington -5.5 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Arizona -2.5 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: Kansas City +13 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 4: San Francisco -7 incorrect NFL point spread pick

My wife was listening to NFL Radio on SiriusXM on her commute to work. As a psychiatrist, she started analyzing every caller and convinced me that my picks should be very relevant from the beginning of the season. Her argument is that people are very emotional at the beginning of the season because they have high hopes for their teams given the clean slate. She argues that could be a big reason why the first week picks were successful.

My response to that is that given I only analyze team level data, my models have a big assumption(that I have to continuously check and hope you help): team composition/competitiveness is nearly constant in recent games. That means that if for example St Louis has a new QB and not enough data has been gathered with Shaun Hill, then the Rams' computer spread forecasts should be avoided because their skill level is not the same as previous recent games.

We will start tabulating results this week. All are official picks from now on. To be more conservative, we'll start with a smaller bankroll percentage in the first few weeks 12% until week 5 where will step up to 15% and go up to possibly 25% towards the end of the season depending on success rates. Here are week 2 NFL point spread predictions:

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
JACKSONVILLE @ WASHINGTON -5.5 -9.3 -3.8 63.0%
ARIZONA @ NY GIANTS 2.5 5.6 3.1 59.8%
KANSAS CITY @ DENVER -13 -9.1 3.9 57.1%
CHICAGO @ SAN FRANCISCO -7 -19.0 -12.0 57.0%
PHILADELPHIA @ INDIANAPOLIS -3 -4.5 -1.5 51.4%
NEW ENGLAND @ MINNESOTA 3.5 8.7 5.2 51.1%
DETROIT @ CAROLINA -2.5 -5.2 -2.7 50.0%
ST LOUIS @ TAMPA BAY -6 -5.0 1.0 50.0%
PITTSBURGH @ BALTIMORE -2.5 -0.6 1.9 50.0%
DALLAS @ TENNESSEE -3.5 -2.3 1.2 50.0%
ATLANTA @ CINCINNATI -5 -10.5 -5.5 49.9%
SEATTLE @ SAN DIEGO 6 5.3 -0.7 49.0%
HOUSTON @ OAKLAND 3 -5.4 -8.4 49.0%
NEW ORLEANS @ CLEVELAND 6.5 13.5 7.0 48.3%
MIAMI @ BUFFALO 1 -0.2 -1.2 48.3%
NY JETS @ GREEN BAY -8.5 -3.8 4.7 47.4%

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

2014 NFL Betting Picks - Week 1

Pick 1: Cincinnati +1.5 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: New Orleans -3 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: Philadelphia -10 correct NFL point spread pick

Is everyone excited to kick off a new season? I'm extremely excited to continue providing transparent free data-driven NFL point spread picks. The format for this year will be the same as last year. Green picks have expected probability of covering the spread higher than 60 and yellow's threshold is 57.

These are unofficial NFL picks! Just like in my previous years, the picks from week 1 to week 5 are purely informational. My predictive models need at least 4 to 5 weeks of data from this year in order to be reliable. In total, my picks do much better by the end of the season and during the playoffs. I know it's hard to see these picks and not be tempted to use them, but stick with me and we'll get you a large positive ROI. That's the goal!

This year I made a few tweaks to the blog so that's it's easier for you to see historical information. If you scroll down and look on the right hand side, find the LABEL section. Now we can click on any week or year and see my picks for all the years in a given week. For example, how have week 1 picks historically done? You can simply click on Week 1 to see.

I didn't have time to finish a trend report I'm working on. Trying to add a bit more meat to what's already available out there. Honestly, it is very hard to find any "trend" when simply looking at homedogs, team, or any high level stats with a big enough sample. I'm also trying to go back in time for the NFL picks and get a better sense when the NFL picks perform better. Stay tuned.

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
CINCINNATI @ BALTIMORE -1.5 3.2 4.7 61.4%
NEW ORLEANS @ ATLANTA 3 7.4 4.4 57.8%
JACKSONVILLE @ PHILADELPHIA -10 -15.4 -5.4 57.3%
CAROLINA @ TAMPA BAY -1 9.5 10.5 56.1%
BUFFALO @ CHICAGO -6.5 -4.5 2.0 55.8%
NEW ENGLAND @ MIAMI 4.5 3.2 -1.3 54.1%
OAKLAND @ NY JETS -5 -8.7 -3.7 53.8%
SAN DIEGO @ ARIZONA -3 -2.3 0.7 53.8%
NY GIANTS @ DETROIT -5 -4.0 1.0 51.5%
CLEVELAND @ PITTSBURGH -6.5 -6.1 0.4 51.5%
GREEN BAY @ SEATTLE -6 -13.8 -7.8 51.4%
INDIANAPOLIS @ DENVER -7.5 -14.3 -6.8 51.1%
WASHINGTON @ HOUSTON -2.5 -0.9 1.6 50.0%
SAN FRANCISCO @ DALLAS 5 8.0 3.0 50.0%
MINNESOTA @ ST LOUIS -4 -8.3 -4.3 49.7%
TENNESSEE @ KANSAS CITY -4 -12.0 -8.0 48.2%

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

2013 Recap from NFLPickles - Short Story, Great Finish

What a great way to end the year! That puts me at 5-1 in Super Bowl Picks but a lowsy 3-6 in Conference Championship for the last 4 years. Terrible, so the 57% is driven mostly by Wildcard and Divisional games.

Except for this year! The 3-0 finish puts on at total season percentage of 55%, boy it could've ended ugly but it didn't. What's impressive and more important are the yearly totals, think long term, "it's sports investing" I tell my wife. 6 seasons, 1 went under 42%, 1 broke even 52%, and 4 went positive: 55%, 56% (2008), 60% last year, and 62% (2009).

Some claim I should have more this year and some say I should have less.  I hear the points from both sides. These have inspired my next year's resolutions:

Next year:
 - I have to be more aware of injuries, I could've saved 2 to 3 games. It's the low hanging fruit. 
 - I will go to Vegas for an NFL weekend, late in the season (when my record is much better)
 - Provide a comprehensive report to all my premium members: "Trends Against the Spread(ATS)"
 - Regular season picks will remain free.
 - I will give Twitter and Facebook ads a run for its money.

Thank you all for your great support,

Jaime

Super Bowl Pick Against the Spread

Super Bowl Pick: Seattle +2.5 correct NFL point spread pick

I'm still excited about last week's outcome. Watching Seattle get that interception at the end of the game was nerve wrecking. Watching Payton dominate the Patriots was exciting. Now, it's definitely hard to make a choice.

As many of you know, the point spread for this year's Super Bowl opened at 0 and quickly moved to 2.5 for Denver (you may find it at 2 in some places today). Regardless, today is at 2.5 and it is what we are using. I'm on a win big or go home mindset, which makes me happy to see that the confidence for the Super Bowl is high enough to make a pick this year (unlike last year). But I'll remember that the bankroll separated for the Big Game was already under the percentage of the Championship game, that is 25% for 3 games (championship and super bowl) or $600 in our example.

Two great teams that do not surprise anyone where they are. They both deserve to be there, now the question is who will close the deal.

It is worth noting that Seattle had the best defense in terms of points allowed (14.4 vs 24.9) but Denver had by far the best offense getting 37.9ppg vs 26.1. So the question for you is, are you betting for offense or defense? For me I just run my numbers and provide the results. It'll be one of the best Super Bowls ever. Good luck to everyone!


GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
DENVER - SEATTLE 2.5 -1 -3.5 58.1%


How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.

NFL Point Spread Picks - Conference Playoffs

Pick 1: Seattle -3.5 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Denver -4.5 correct NFL point spread pick

UPDATE: Perfect picks for Conference Champioship. Super Bowl pick for members coming tomorrow.

Last week was my worst playoff week in 6 years. It was rough and unexpected. One spread moved in our favor but at the end some touchdowns that shouldn't have been scored were and some that should have been scored were punted away. Needless to say that we still have three games to go. Our exclusive members will get winning picks for the coming 3 games or their money back (too late to get the last 3 remaining picks). Keep calm Jaime, this was stressful. The worst we can do now is double down thinking we can recover faster from last week's loss. Will continue 25% of bankroll for the last 3 games (that's around $600 per game in our tracking) including the super bowl. These will be the last picks of the year so for those that supported me this year I thank you and regardless of the final outcome, I will continue my search for ineffeciencies in the NFL point spread market.


GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
SAN FRANCISCO @ SEATTLE -3.5 -8.6 -5.1 59.3%
NEW ENGLAND @ DENVER -4.5 -10.3 -5.8 57.8%


How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.

NFL Point Spread Picks - Divisional Playoffs 2013

Pick 1: Denver -8 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: New Orleans +8.5 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: Indianapolis -7.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 4: Carolina +2 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Playoff picks are only available to exclusive members. If you're an exclusive member and have yet to receive the picks, please contact me.


GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
SAN DIEGO @ DENVER -9.5 -11.5 -2 64.9%
NEW ORLEANS @ SEATTLE -8.5 -4.9 3.6 59.9%
INDIANAPOLIS @ NEW ENGLAND -7 -3.9 3.1 58.4%
SAN FRANCISCO @ CAROLINA 2 -1.4 -3.4 56.3%


How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.

NFL Point Spread Picks - Playoffs

Pick 1: San Francisco -3 PUSH
Pick 2: San Diego +7 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: Philadelphia -2.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 4: Kansas City +2.5 correct NFL point spread pick
We've had a good run this year. 54% for the year and 57% the last 8 weeks. For the past 6 years I've been giving you every week free picks generated by an algorithm I created while studying a Ph.D. in Mathematics. I've since improved the formula much with the knowledge attained through the years. I've been studying NFL point spreads for the past 7 years and posting my picks here for the past 5 years, at no cost. Last year I decided to generate a bit of money to pay for the minor expenses in time and resources that this takes.

Get ALL 2013 NFL playoff picks for $79
100% Guarantee - If all playoff picks go under 50% ATS, I'll give you your money back


Why am I charging for picks now?
For a few reasons, here they are in no specific order:
  • I like pressure. If I don't perform (under 50% ATS), I lose you don't. 
  • They are worth every penny, especially the playoff picks.
  • Every year my wife tells me to.
What do you get?
For $50 you will receive all the weekly picks throughout the playoffs. It's not $79 a week, it's $79 for all Wildcard, Divisional, Conference, and Super Bowl games.

Who am I?
Jaime Brugueras, Ph.D. in Statistics from the University of Illinois. I'm the Analytics head at a fast growing marketing analytics company. I've been posting my picks since 2006, putting myself out there like no other NFL handicapper. Now after a 54% 2012 season you've witnessed, 56% through 5 years, and a 62% ATS record during the playoffs, I feel confident that this will generate profits for people who seriously bet on NFL games.

What are you waiting for? Get your picks
You have nothing to lose. If you don't win, neither do I.


GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
SAN FRANCISCO @ GREEN BAY 3 7.3 4.3 63.0%
SAN DIEGO @ CINCINNATI -7 -4.9 2.1 59.0%
NEW ORLEANS @ PHILADELPHIA -2.5 -5.1 -2.6 58.4%
KANSAS CITY @ INDIANAPOLIS -2.5 3.5 6.0 56.3%


How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.

Unofficial Spread Picks for Week 17

I have never placed bets on the last week of the season. Similar to the off season, there are teams that have already qualified and might sit their QBs or teams that are so at the bottom that it might even be beneficial for them to stay there. Since I believe some players and coaches might not be giving their 100% effort, I've always stayed away from this week. When I started this blog, I wouldn't even run the numbers but I quickly learned that some of you still like to see them. So here are the automated point spread picks from NFLpickles:

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
CLEVELAND @ PITTSBURGH -7 -6.1 0.9 63.0%
NY JETS @ MIAMI -7 -6.5 0.5 63.0%
BALTIMORE @ CINCINNATI -6.5 -7.2 -0.7 60.0%
SAN FRANCISCO @ ARIZONA 3 6.3 3.3 55.1%
JACKSONVILLE @ INDIANAPOLIS -11 -15.8 -4.8 54.8%
BUFFALO @ NEW ENGLAND -9.5 -10.9 -1.4 53.1%
ST LOUIS @ SEATTLE -10 -12.0 -2.0 53.1%
HOUSTON @ TENNESSEE -6.5 -9.4 -2.9 51.0%
WASHINGTON @ NY GIANTS -4 -1.9 2.1 50.0%
DETROIT @ MINNESOTA -3.5 -2.2 1.3 50.0%
TAMPA BAY @ NEW ORLEANS -13 -13.3 -0.3 50.0%
CAROLINA @ ATLANTA 7 8.6 1.6 50.0%
KANSAS CITY @ SAN DIEGO -9.5 -0.3 9.2 49.8%
DENVER @ OAKLAND 13 13.3 0.3 48.4%
PHILADELPHIA @ DALLAS 7.5 -6.0 -13.5 NA

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

NFL Point Spread Picks Week 16 - 2013

Pick 1: St Louis -5 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Indianapolis +7 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: New England +2.5 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 4: San Francisco -13 incorrect NFL point spread pick

We continue our struggles this year with last week going again 1-2 (by merely one point away from going 2-1). Many of you have asked me to do a broader study on trends regarding homedogs, division and other things that we should probably at least be aware of. I promise I will do so at least in the off-season if not before. Now that I've just started my vacation, I might grab a night to query my 15 year database and see what comes out. I can't promise anything soon as I'm expecting a new member of the family some time soon and don't know how all that will pan out. This will be the last week of regular season picks and then we'll go strong on the playoffs and will hopefully continue my average of 55% during playoffs.
For the second week in a row, we use 20% of bankroll for the 4 picks above. That's $455 per pick. See table below for automated predictions of NFL games week 16 against the spread.

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
TAMPA BAY @ ST LOUIS -5 -7.4 -2.4 62.0%
INDIANAPOLIS @ KANSAS CITY -7 -4.8 2.2 61.5%
NEW ENGLAND @ BALTIMORE -2.5 1.1 3.6 58.1%
ATLANTA @ SAN FRANCISCO -13 -18.2 -5.2 57.5%
NY GIANTS @ DETROIT -9 -7.8 1.2 54.8%
DALLAS @ WASHINGTON 3 1.9 -1.1 53.7%
ARIZONA @ SEATTLE -10.5 -12.9 -2.4 53.1%
NEW ORLEANS @ CAROLINA -3.5 -6.4 -2.9 51.9%
DENVER @ HOUSTON 10.5 14.8 4.3 51.9%
MINNESOTA @ CINCINNATI -7.5 -9.0 -1.5 51.0%
CHICAGO @ PHILADELPHIA -3 -0.6 2.4 50.3%
TENNESSEE @ JACKSONVILLE 5.5 6.7 1.2 50.0%
MIAMI @ BUFFALO 3 2.8 -0.2 49.9%
CLEVELAND @ NY JETS -2 -6.5 -4.5 49.3%
OAKLAND @ SAN DIEGO -10 -9.4 0.6 48.1%
PITTSBURGH @ GREEN BAY 0 -6.4 -6.4 NA

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.