2017 NFL Super Bowl Point Spread Pick

Super Bowl Pick: Philadelphia +5 correct NFL point spread pick

It's sad, depressing and disappointing that last week's game didn't go our way. I was feeling so confident up til now that I almost bet the farm on those games.  Sticking to the system (percent of bankroll) "paid off".

I really wanted to back the Patriots and fade Foles. Last year, the Patriots helped my wife and I win a free vacation (to Vegas) after that huge comeback to cover -3. So I ran the machine learning models and all were pointing at the Eagles. Ran the models with only Nick Foles games and without, but all situations point at Eagles +5. Historically, this blog has done very well in the Super Bowl going at 9-1. You can see all my Super Bowl picks.

Then I looked Super Bowl point spreads historically. In the last 20 years (only 20 games, small sample I know), the underdog has covered 13 times. Of the 7 Super Bowl games the Brady Patriots have been, they have covered 3 times. The last 2 which were miraculous last minute wins and the first one in which they were 12 point underdogs. I'm not a big fan of trends, but it seems like every trend that I look for points at the Eagles.

For the last week, we'll go 25% which mainly means we're betting here to go break even or make some decent money. At +60% ATS for the year this doesn't seem right. It might make sense to re-evaluate for next year how to better assign bankroll to each game throughout the season. Have a great Super Bowl!

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
PHILADELPHIA - NEW ENGLAND -5 -2.80 2.25 59.56

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

NFL Point Spread Picks - Conference Playoffs

Pick 1: Minnesota -3 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: New England -9 incorrect NFL point spread pick

Coming off a perfect week! New England was a good wise pick that was secure early on (except they didn't score first) and covered 13.5 with a dominating 35-14 win. Minnesota should have cleared that game easier than with a last second TD win and cover 3.5. They are a gooood team and that defense is legit (unlike Jacksonville's). Philly's defense is also legit, but their offense bleeds bad QB blood. "Homedog" sometimes is attractive, but not when your captain is Nick Foles. Yes, he had 1 game with 4 TD but the other 5 or 6 were pretty terrible. I ran the numbers as usual and from week 14 onwards (only Foles), Vikings is the bet here as they cover on both situations with good confidence. Keenum is 3rd in DBOA, holds the record for most NCAA yards (love that) and is pumped after that game winning TD!

As for the second game, JAC @ NE home favorite by 9 we are basically placing the same bet. There is a huge difference in QB talent between the two teams. This position is extremely important and cannot have such gaps I'm sorry it's over. The numbers are close but so they were for Tennessee. Close but slightly for the home team when the home team is favorite performs well with my algorithm. Go Patriots, do it again!

These are the two top teams in ATS Standings this season. Minnesota went 11-4-1 and Patriots 11-5-0. You'd think that Vegas would have caught on but not yet.

With a current backroll of about $17.7K, we keep the betting pool at 30%. That means that we'll bet $2,650 for each game this week. Lets win!

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
MINNESOTA @ PHILADELPHIA 3.0 9.60 6.69 60.56
JACKSONVILLE @ NEW ENGLAND -9.0 -10.00 -1.00 55.56

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

NFL Point Spread Picks - Divisional

Pick 1: Minnesota -3.5 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: New England -13.5 correct NFL point spread pick

Bad week last week. Bailed out at the last minute on the Jacksonville game since McCoy was ready to play yet the line didn't go down to an acceptable level of 7. The real disappointment for me was New Orleans not covering, I feel like they should've but their running game wasn't there.

This week we got some great games coming. We're focusing on two games and going for a perfect record to make up and surpass last week's loss. Although last week all road teams covered, this week we reverse the trend and expect a few key home teams to show up. Unfortunately, with Nick Foles our models won't be able to accurately predict this game. When I did analyze that game for the few only games with Nick Foles, then Atlanta would cover but I'm staying out of this one. First of, the Vikings solid defense will watch tape and stop the Saints running game again. The question becomes, can Drew Brees have another game like he had? Well maybe but the edge is on the Vikings and I would wait because this might go to 3 points (or buy the half point). Next, can you really bet against the Patriots vs a team that shouldn't even be in the playoffs? I'm glad the numbers are also there to back this bet. Finally, I'm not backing Bortles again. The confidence isn't there (visiting team with a slight edge on a 7+ spread) to bet on this game anyways

With a current backroll of about $13.5K, we keep the betting pool at 30%. That means that we'll bet $2,100 for each game this week. Lets go!

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
NEW ORLEANS @ MINNESOTA -3.0 -6.50 -3.00 61.90
TENNESSEE @ NEW ENGLAND -13.5 -17.00 -2.5 59.64
JACKSONVILLE @ PITTSBURGH -7.5 -3.90 3.56 51.22
ATLANTA @ PHILADELPHIA 3.0 -3.00 -6.00 NA

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

NFL Point Spread Picks - Divisional

Four great divisional games ahead of us this week. We lock down two of them for picks this week for our premium members. The trends are there, the numbers are there, we are feeling confident about these two picks, so confident that a parlay might be at play. Let it ride!

NFL Point Spread Picks - Wildcard Playoffs

Pick 1: New Orleans -7 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Tennessee +9 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: LA Rams -6.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick

The year of the favorite continues. We only have one underdog pick. These are too many points for KC to cover on a playoff game. I hate backing Tennesse and Mariotta who's got more INT than TD, but that's what the numbers are saying. Jacksonville has definitely disappointed recently and Bortles is looking like Bortles again, but the point of stats is to look at the whole picture and that's telling us they have an awesome defense. McCoy potentially bring out is something I would also like but he's a game time decision so when it's confirmed that he will play, we'll place the bet there and the spread should go down to 7 or so. The Rams will run all over the weak Atlanta defense. Finally, the team I feel is going to the Super Bowl gets the numbers. The Saints triple offensive threat is real and the terrible Carolina offense will not be able to keep up.

With a current backroll of about $15K, we increase betting pool to 30% throughout the playoffs. That means that we'll bet $1,150 for each game this week. Keep the wins coming!

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
CAROLINA @ NEW ORLEANS -7.0 -9.00 -2.03 60.24
BUFFALO @ JACKSONVILLE -9.0 -16.00 -7.00 59.85
TENNESSEE @ KANSAS CITY -9.0 3.50 6.48 57.45
ATLANTA @ LA RAMS -6.5 -10.00 -3.50 56.22

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

NFL Quant Point Spread Picks

This year have witnessed a 64% ATS along with a betting strategy that gave you 52% ROI. We're not finished yet, now comes the time where these machine learning models perform best. Historically NFLpickles has performed 67% ATS during the playoffs and 9-1 for the Super Bowl. Any other site says they have been winning all year every year, but we know that's not true. You have seen my picks posted here for free throughout the season and for the last 10 years. Here's 3 reasons you shouldn't hesitate to pitch in $99 bucks for winning quantitative picks.

  1. We will win: A record 64% ATS and 52% ROI this year. 
  2. Limited Time: Once playoffs start, the selling stops...
  3. Science: Can you bet big without statistical expertise?

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NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 17

No official picks this week. It's terribly hard to predict with teams not having much to play for. Still, I wanted to give you what the models spit out.

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
CAROLINA @ ATLANTA -4.0 2.30 5.69 62.41
JACKSONVILLE @ TENNESSEE -3.5 3.10 6.62 59.08
CINCINNATI @ BALTIMORE -9.5 -20.20 -10.68 58.89
KANSAS CITY @ DENVER -3.5 4.40 7.86 58.90
NY JETS @ NEW ENGLAND -15.5 -16.90 -1.42 57.44
NEW ORLEANS @ TAMPA BAY 7.0 11.50 4.50 57.10
WASHINGTON @ NY GIANTS 3.0 -4.90 -7.87 52.25
ARIZONA @ SEATTLE -9.0 -7.90 1.08 51.06
OAKLAND @ LA CHARGERS -8.0 -17.30 -9.35 51.00
GREEN BAY @ DETROIT -6.5 -3.30 3.18 50.86
BUFFALO @ MIAMI 2.5 2.70 0.25 50.08
CHICAGO @ MINNESOTA -12.0 -12.60 -0.61 50.00
HOUSTON @ INDIANAPOLIS -4.0 -4.90 -0.88 50.00
CLEVELAND @ PITTSBURGH -11.0 -14.70 -3.68 NA
DALLAS @ PHILADELPHIA 3.0 -19.60 -22.64 NA
SAN FRANCISCO @ LA RAMS 4.0 -16.50 -20.50 NA

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

NFL Playoff Picks

What a fun ride it's been this year! You have witnessed a 64% ATS along with a betting strategy that gave you 52% ROI. We're not finished yet, now comes the time where these machine learning models perform best. Historically NFLpickles has performed 67% ATS during the playoffs and 9-1 for the Super Bowl. Any other site says they have been winning all year every year, but we know that's not true. You have seen my picks posted here for free throughout the season and for the last 10 years. Unfortunately, my wife and 4 kids have suffered enough from all the work I've put this year. Help me help you. Here's 5 reasons you shouldn't hesitate to pitch in $99 bucks for winning quantitative picks.

  1. We will win: A record 64% ATS and 52% ROI this year. 
  2. Transparency: My winning picks have been posted here all year.  
  3. Experience: 10 years and counting...
  4. Science: Can you bet big without your quant guy?
  5. Limited Time: Once playoffs start, the selling stops...

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NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 16

Pick 1: Jacksonville -4.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Chicago -6.5 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: LA Rams -6.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 4: New Orleans -5.5 correct NFL point spread pick

Bad week last week, probably some could have been avoided. This is still the year of the favorite and I should've tried to bank more on heavy favorites against crappy or teams that have given up. This week we have a bit of that by fading Cleveland and backing Jacksonville (lock of the week) and the Rams. The Saints pick is as well like the other ones pure mathematical but I've been told that my model needs to incorporate the same division factor (usually closer games).

Bankroll will continue to be at 27%. With 4 solid NFL spread picks this week we get about $1100 per game. Let's get rolling!

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
JACKSONVILLE @ SAN FRAN 4.5 9.20 4.74 64.87
CLEVELAND @ CHICAGO -6.5 -15.00 -8.53 60.86
LA RAMS @ TENNESSEE 6.5 18.30 11.83 59.63
ATLANTA @ NEW ORLEANS -5.5 -8.40 -2.87 58.00
INDIANAPOLIS @ BALTIMORE -13.5 -18.00 -4.53 59.00
LA CHARGERS @ NY JETS 7.0 5.00 -2.00 55.00
SEATTLE @ DALLAS -5.0 3.20 8.19 52.75
MIAMI @ KANSAS CITY -10.0 2.90 12.91 51.00
TAMPA BAY @ CAROLINA -9.5 -11.30 -2.83 50.00
NY GIANTS @ ARIZONA -4.0 -3.20 0.20 50.00
DETROIT @ CINCINNATI 5.0 7.60 2.56 50.00
BUFFALO @ NEW ENGLAND -12.0 -18.30 -6.31 48.83
PITTSBURGH @ HOUSTON 10.0 5.10 -4.89 47.45
DENVER @ WASHINGTON -3.5 -2.70 0.83 NA
MINNESOTA @ GREEN BAY 3.0 9.00 5.00 NA
OAKLAND @ PHILADELPHIA -9.5 -27.90 -18.41 NA

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 15

Pick 1: Minnesota -10.5 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: LA Chargers -1 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: Indianapolis +3 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 4: Arizona +4 incorrect NFL point spread pick

Pick 5: Oakland +3 PUSH

Since we started betting the season on week 5, we've had 7 winning weeks, one losing week and two push. Last week I'll admit we got lucky with two overtime TD covers. WCurrently at 67.6% ATS, we are on a roll and there shouldn't be any sign of stopping. We'll keep riding the great teams and fading the horrible ones.

This week we got the Vikings coming off a loss playing a team that seems to have given up. I like the Vikings D at home and the models are predicting a blowout. Next up the LA Chargers going strong to win the division and we'll prove their a better team. I don't really know what happened to KC, but they are terrible and aren't covering lately except last week but it was against an even worse team in the Raiders. Finally, going home dog with the Colts and mostly betting that the Broncos are going to regress to the mean and not do anything remotely close to what they did last week. I was on the fence with going with Arizona again, but I'll go with them after seeing the TNF result. That's it for this week, go get some cash with these games.

Bankroll will go to 27% and as the winnings keep coming in, the amount bet gets bigger and bigger. With these solid NFL picks again this week we get about $1500 per game. Stay thirsty my friends!

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
CINCINNATI @ MINNESOTA -10.5 -22.00 -11.50 65.83
LA CHARGERS @ KANSAS CITY 1.0 9.70 8.7 60.00
DENVER @ INDIANAPOLIS 2.5 -6.80 -9.35 58.52
ARIZONA @ WASHINGTON -4.5 -3.00 1.50 57.56
DALLAS @ OAKLAND 3.0 -1.00 -4.00 56.83
NEW ENGLAND @ PITTSBURGH 2.5 7.90 5.39 55.56
HOUSTON @ JACKSONVILLE -11.5 -16.00 -4.50 53.00
NY JETS @ NEW ORLEANS -15.5 -19.00 -3.50 53.00
LA RAMS @ SEATTLE -2.0 7.00 9.00 51.28
CHICAGO @ DETROIT -6.0 -3.00 3.00 50.14
TENNESSEE @ SAN FRANCISCO -2.0 -3.0 -1.00 50.00
MIAMI @ BUFFALO -3.0 3.00 6.00 50.00
ATLANTA @ TAMPA BAY 6.0 8.00 2.00 49.35
BALTIMORE @ CLEVELAND 7.0 12.00 5.00 48.00
GREEN BAY @ CAROLINA -3.0 -11.00 -7.96 NA
PHILADELPHIA @ NY GIANTS 8.0 28.40 20.41 NA

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.