2014 NFL Betting Picks - Week 16

Another miserable week for this picks as the picks went again 1-2. Should have not bet against Denver. I'm adjusting a few parameters this week based on some back testing I did over the week. Excuse me for not posting the picks before Thursday. I'm still confident the system works, so hoping that from now on and especially during the playoffs, we come out winning big to recover and finish the year in good shape.

This week we have 4 premium picks and we are keeping the bankroll at 25%. This gives us a bet of $560 per game for this week. I also like and stats back me up on KC, CHI, NE and CLE.

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
SAN DIEGO @ SAN FRANCISCO -1 Buy premium picks 66.7%
INDIANAPOLIS @ DALLAS -3 59.1%
SEATTLE @ ARIZONA 9 57.5%
DENVER @ CINCINNATI 3 57.1%
ATLANTA @ NEW ORLEANS -6.5 -9.4 -2.9 56.3%
KANSAS CITY @ PITTSBURGH -3 11.3 14.3 55.8%
BALTIMORE @ HOUSTON 6 1.9 -4.1 54.4%
MINNESOTA @ MIAMI -6.5 -6.7 -0.2 50.0%
DETROIT @ CHICAGO 9.5 5.6 -3.9 50.0%
CLEVELAND @ CAROLINA -4 0.4 4.4 50.0%
PHILADELPHIA @ WASHINGTON 8 8.2 0.2 50.0%
NY GIANTS @ ST LOUIS -6.5 -4.8 1.7 49.2%
NEW ENGLAND @ NY JETS 10.5 25.3 14.8 48.2%
GREEN BAY @ TAMPA BAY 12 10.0 -2.0 47.5%
BUFFALO @ OAKLAND 6.5 6.9 0.4 47.0%

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

2014 NFL Betting Picks - Week 15

Pick 1: Washington +7 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: San Diego +4.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: New England -7.5 correct NFL point spread pick

Last week our picks went 1-2. Got lucky that Minnesota scored a touchdown in overtime and pushed. Chicago was a bad bet, especially now that Marshall is out. Seattle was a good bet and Cincinnati bombed.

This week we have 3 premium picks and we are going to up the bankroll to 25%. Being at pretty much break-even level and the season approaching its end, I want to end with a bang (or a boom). This gives us a bet of $815 per game for this week. Honorable mentions that the computer-based picked were Dallas although I've already made that mistake during Thanksgiving so it sounds like a good one to shy away. Carolina and Cincinnati but both game have new QBs. Detroit looks tempting as well. That's it for now. Thank you everyone for all the constructive comments, I've been learning a lot from you guys. Thanks and good luck to everyone.

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GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
WASHINGTON @ NY GIANTS -7 -1.5 5.5 62.3%
DENVER @ SAN DIEGO 4.5 -1.0 -5.5 59.5%
MIAMI @ NEW ENGLAND -7.5 -15.1 -7.6 59.5%
MINNESOTA @ DETROIT -8 -8.6 -0.6 56.3%
NEW ORLEANS @ CHICAGO 3 0.8 -2.2 54.5%
PITTSBURGH @ ATLANTA 2.5 -1.8 -4.3 54.4%
OAKLAND @ KANSAS CITY -10 -15.9 -5.9 54.1%
HOUSTON @ INDIANAPOLIS -7 -9.8 -2.8 54.1%
TAMPA BAY @ CAROLINA -3.5 -5.5 -2.0 52.0%
SAN FRANCISCO @ SEATTLE -10 -10.5 0.5 50.0%
CINCINNATI @ CLEVELAND -1 6.0 7.0 50.0%
JACKSONVILLE @ BALTIMORE -14 -19.0 -5.0 49.7%
GREEN BAY @ BUFFALO 6 -3.7 -9.7 48.5%
ARIZONA @ ST LOUIS -4.5 4.5 9.0 48.2%
NY JETS @ TENNESSEE 2 1.6 -0.4 47.5%

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

2014 NFL Betting Picks - Week 14

Pick 1: Cincinnati -3.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Seattle +1 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: Chicago +3.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 4: Minnesota -6 PUSH

Last week our picks went 3-2. The San Diego pick and win was a classic Vegas moment. Down by 9 and everything went perfectly for them to get the win. On the other hand, New England's missed field goal was also classic but didn't go in our favor. I wasn't even sure they would go for the field goal, they did and saw the opportunity, but then the miss changed everything. Dallas was a bad pick in retrospect, but Denver was almost an obvious pick. Now that the RB can pick up when Payton doesn't deliver gives me more confidence in the Broncos. I need the models to better predict the blowouts. This week was the Rams beating the Raiders by 52 points and the Colts cruising at home against the Redskins.

This week we have 4 premium picks starting with the Thursday night game at Soldier Field and the rest. Honorary mentions for picks that didn't make the premium cut were the two big underdogs. Atlanta's playing the red hot Packers at Lambeau on Monday night. That's a hard pick to make. Carolina is one of the worst teams in my opinion and I've lost enough bets on them this year so I'm out of that one too. This week we keep the bankroll to use 20% split evenly across the 4 NFL games, giving us a bet of about $520 per game. Below are the computer-based NFL point spread predictions.

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
PITTSBURGH @ CINCINNATI -3.5 -10.1 -6.6 61.0%
SEATTLE @ PHILADEPHIA -1 7.5 8.5 60.1%
DALLAS @ CHICAGO 3.5 0.1 -3.4 58.6%
NY JETS @ MINNESOTA -6 -7 -1 58.3%
ATLANTA @ GREEN BAY -12.5 -8.8 3.7 56.3%
CAROLINA @ NEW ORLEANS -10 -6.8 3.2 55.3%
BUFFALO @ DENVER -10 -15.4 -5.4 54.1%
TAMPA BAY @ DETROIT -10 -11.1 -1.1 54.0%
INDIANAPOLIS @ CLEVELAND 4.5 12.2 7.7 53.9%
NEW ENGLAND @ SAN DIEGO 4 6.5 2.5 52.5%
BALTIMORE @ MIAMI -3 -4.3 -1.3 50.0%
KANSAS CITY @ ARIZONA -1.5 -0.3 1.2 50.0%
ST LOUIS @ WASHINGTON 3 -2.9 -5.9 49.9%
NY GIANTS @ TENNESSEE 1.5 -0.1 -1.6 49.5%
SAN FRANCISCO @ OAKLAND 9 6.9 -2.1 48.5%
HOUSTON @ JACKSONVILLE 5.5 5.9 0.4 48.2%

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

2014 NFL Betting Picks - Week 13

Pick 1: Denver -2 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Seattle +1 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: San Diego -4.5 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 4: Dallas -3 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 5: New England +3 incorrect NFL point spread pick

I have no regrets regarding the picks last week. They were solid picks, no emotions, pure data and the right ones given the situation. New England of course was the right pick and also a blowout. Denver should have pull that one off and so should KC. I still think weather wasn't the tipping big factor. Like some of the comments in the post last week, I can't expect to win every week although it would be nice. Models can't and won't account for everything, but one tries to determine the key variables that do drive the predictions and in the long run it should work and pay off. We're now going to week 13 which means that there are still 4 weeks in the regular season and then the playoffs. Plenty of time to come out with huge gains!

This week we have 5 premium picks. I have to get them out on Monday as I will be traveling without my data-crunching computer. Usually too many picks for my taste but it is what it is. I have lost betting Denver the last two weeks and KC is a homedog. SF at home by 1. The SD/BAL makes me a little nervous given that I don't know where the line is, but if I can't remove it. Finally, NE is going to Lambeau. There is one free computer-based predictions that doesn't look too bad and that's Carolina. We have two Thanksgiving night game and two day games on Sunday. Some notable mentions in the free picks include Arizona and Cleveland. This week we raise the bankroll to use 20% split evenly across the 5 NFL games, giving us a bet of about $400 per game. Below is our table with free NFL point spread predictions.

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
DENVER @ KANSAS CITY 2 5.2 3.2 62.5%
SEATTLE @ SAN FRANCISCO -1 1.7 2.7 61.0%
SAN DIEGO @ BALTIMORE -4.5 0.9 5.4 59.3%
PHILADEPHIA @ DALLAS -3 -7.0 -4.0 58.3%
NEW ENGLAND @ GREEN BAY -3 4.7 7.7 58.1%
CAROLINA @ MINNESOTA -2.5 2.1 4.4 56.5%
NY GIANTS @ JACKSONVILLE 3 0.4 -2.6 55.8%
OAKLAND @ ST LOUIS -7 -7.7 -0.7 54.8%
NEW ORLEANS @ PITTSBURGH -3 -4.8 -1.8 52.1%
CLEVELAND @ BUFFALO -1.5 -7.0 -5.5 50.0%
ARIZONA @ ATLANTA 2.5 12.3 9.8 50.0%
CINCINNATI @ TAMPA BAY 4 12.6 8.6 49.9%
WASHINGTON @ INDIANAPOLIS -10 -10.1 -0.1 48.4%
CHICAGO @ DETROIT -7 -4.1 2.9 48.2%
TENNESSEE @ HOUSTON -6 -9.9 -3.9 47.0%

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

2014 NFL Betting Picks - Week 12

Pick 1: Denver -7.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Kansas City -7 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: New England -7 correct NFL point spread pick

Every week is a learning experience. In retrospect, the New Orleans pick was a bad one given that the difference between prediction and vegas was small and when tinkering with the weights a bit, it would provide much different results. This means that the model was relying to heavily on recent success for the Saints. The Denver pick I think was the right one given the circumstance. I was a bit shocked with not the cover but the straight up win. I smelled blood in the Sunday night and Monday night game and again looking back I should have notified you through Twitter to go at if you had the chance. It wouldn't have changed the results here, but meant to tell you that I felt more comfortable with those picks than the confidence explained. Anyways, after this week we are at 56.8% ATS for the season and 8.1% ROI.

This week we have 3 solid premium picks. There are some free computer-based predictions that don't look too bad either. We have the Thurday night game and two day games on Sunday. Some notable mentions in the free picks include Arizona and Cleveland. This week we again use 18% of bankroll split evenly across our 3 premium games giving us a bet of about $650 per game. Below is our table with free NFL point spread predictions.

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
MIAMI @ DENVER -7.5 -14.7 -7.2 62.9%
KANSAS CITY @ OAKLAND 7 -15.6 -8.6 58.6%
DETROIT @ NEW ENGLAND -7 -12.3 -5.3 58.0%
ARIZONA @ SEATTLE -6 -2.2 3.8 57.4%
CLEVELAND @ ATLANTA -3.5 -1.4 2.1 55.6%
CINCINNATI @ HOUSTON -1.5 2.4 3.9 55.3%
JACKSONVILLE @ INDIANAPOLIS -14 -18.6 -4.6 54.3%
BALTIMORE @ NEW ORLEANS -3 1.7 4.7 53.8%
TAMPA BAY @ CHICAGO -6 -7.4 -1.4 52.5%
GREEN BAY @ MINNESOTA 10 8.3 -1.7 50.0%
WASHINGTON @ SAN FRANCISCO -9 -7.3 1.7 50.0%
ST LOUIS @ SAN DIEGO -5 -6.6 -1.6 50.0%
DALLAS @ NY GIANTS 3.5 4.5 1.0 49.2%
NY JETS @ BUFFALO -4.5 -5.1 -0.6 48.7%
TENNESSEE @ PHILADELPHIA -11 -15.9 -4.9 47.3%

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

2014 NFL Betting Picks - Week 11

Pick 1: New Orleans -7 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Denver -10 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: San Francisco -4.5 correct NFL point spread pick

Perfect week last week! The picks couldn't have gone any better. We finished 3-0 ATS with two of the picks being huge blowouts. This puts us at 58% ATS for the season and 16% ROI. As happy as I was for the perfect picks, I was disappointed with my Bears and their humiliating loss against the Packers. I will continue to work hard for you and provide more great weeks like this one.

This week we have again 3 picks over the 58% confidence threshold. These three picks are only available to premium members. All other computer-based NFL picks are free to everyone. Some noteables mention in the free picks include Arizona and Minnesota. But although the models are pointing their way, Calvin Johnson and Adrian Peterson are not well accounted for in these games (so probably just better to stick with the premium picks). This week we again use 18% of bankroll split evenly across our 3 premium games giving us a bet of about $675 per game. Below is our table with free NFL point spread predictions.

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
CINCINNATI @ NEW ORLEANS -7 -9.4 -2.4 61.2%
DENVER @ ST LOUIS 10 15.5 5.5 59.3%
SAN FRANCISCO @ NY GIANTS 4.5 7.8 3.3 58.0%
DETROIT @ ARIZONA -1.5 -7.5 -6.0 56.3%
MINNESOTA @ CHICAGO -3.5 -2.4 1.1 54.7%
NEW ENGLAND @ INDIANAPOLIS -2.5 -0.9 1.6 53.6%
PITTSBURGH @ TENNESSEE 6 0.7 -5.3 52.9%
SEATTLE @ KANSAS CITY -1 -4.7 -3.7 52.3%
ATLANTA @ CAROLINA -2 -6.0 -4.0 50.6%
BUFFALO @ MIAMI -5.5 -3.9 1.6 50.0%
PHILADELPHIA @ GREEN BAY -6 9.5 15.5 50.0%
TAMPA BAY @ WASHINGTON -7 -11.5 -4.5 50.0%
HOUSTON @ CLEVELAND -3.5 0.2 3.7 49.7%
OAKLAND @ SAN DIEGO -10 -12.4 -2.4 48.2%

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

2014 NFL Betting Picks - Week 10

Pick 1: Denver -12 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Philadelphia -6 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: Arizona -7 correct NFL point spread pick

That was a great bounce back with a 3-1 ATS. The one loss was way off with Miami destroying the sinking Chargers, but at least in only counts as one loss. Indianapolis also bounced back with strength as they dominated the Giants on the road. Staying on course with the data and not being influenced by emotions and recent games is important to any bettor. This week we also have 3 solid NFL picks. The models are unanimously picking these teams and picks. As always, below is the list of free NFL point spread picks for the non-premium picks and members should be receiving the premium picks shortly.

This week we again use 18% of bankroll split evenly across our 3 premium games giving us a bet of about $600 per game. You can see that so far we've had better success in the front half of the season where bankroll was around 12%-15% and now it's been consistently at 18%. This explains why we have hardly any ROI but the ATS is at 54.8%. See below for a list for free NFL point spread predictions. The 4 premium picks have already been sent to all premium members.

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
DENVER @ OAKLAND 12 20.2 8.2 60.6%
CAROLINA @ PHILADELPHIA -6 -11.8 -5.8 58.4%
ST LOUIS @ ARIZONA -7 -12.5 -5.5 58.4%
SAN FRANCISCO @ NEW ORLEANS -5 1.2 6.2 55.5%
PITTSBURGH @ NY JETS 6 3.7 -2.3 55.3%
CHICAGO @ GREEN BAY -7.5 -2.3 5.2 55.0%
TENNESSEE @ BALTIMORE -10 -13.0 -3.0 53.8%
KANSAS CITY @ BUFFALO 2.5 9.9 7.4 52.8%
NY GIANTS @ SEATTLE -9.5 -15.9 -6.4 50.0%
MIAMI @ DETROIT -3 1.5 4.5 50.0%
DALLAS - JACKSONVILLE 6.5 4.8 -1.7 49.7%
CLEVELAND @ CINCINNATI -6.5 -10.9 -4.4 49.5%
ATLANTA @ TAMPA BAY 1.5 -6.5 -8.0 48.3%

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

2014 NFL Betting Picks - Week 9

Pick 1: San Diego +1.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Indianapolis -3 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: Philadelphia -2 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 4: Kansas City -9.5 correct NFL point spread pick
Two losing weeks in a row starts to get me a bit nervous. Regardless of the long-term strategy, we need to pick up the pace this week with 4 solid picks. I felt that all three picks last week were the right ones given the circumstances and the data. This week I'm also feeling comfortable with the games that were selected by the probability of covering the spread as well as the final pick. Below you will find the free nfl point spread picks for the non-premium picks and members should be receiving the premium picks shortly.

This week we again use 18% of bankroll split evenly across our 4 premium games giving us a bet of about $420 per game. Below are the computer-based NFL point spread predictions for week 9 of the NFL:

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
SAN DIEGO @ MIAMI -1 3.9 4.9 61.0%
INDIANAPOLIS @ NY GIANTS 3 8.4 5.4 60.8%
PHILADELPHIA @ HOUSTON 2.5 5.5 3.0 58.5%
NY JETS @ KANSAS CITY -10 -23.6 -13.6 57.5%
OAKLAND @ SEATTLE -15 -20.0 -5.0 54.3%
DENVER @ NEW ENGLAND 3 6.3 3.3 54.1%
WASHINGTON @ MINNESOTA 0 2.9 2.9 50.0%
TAMPA BAY @ CLEVELAND -6.5 -5.8 0.7 50.0%
BALTIMORE @ PITTSBURGH 0 2.3 2.3 50.0%
ARIZONA @ DALLAS -3.5 0.1 3.6 49.7%
NEW ORLEANS @ CAROLINA 3 -5.0 -8.0 49.1%
JACKSONVILLE @ CINCINNATI -11 -18.5 -7.5 48.4%

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

2014 NFL Betting Picks - Week 8

Pick 1: Cincinnati -1 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Indianapolis -3.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: Green Bay +1 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Everybody calm down. That's what my friend reminded me to do after Sunday night. I was extremely disappointed with last week's results, as you probably were. The important thing to remember is that this is a long term strategy and the goal is to win money in the long run (end of the year). Although at this point we're back were we started, there is still a lot of football to be played and good money to potentially win. I've been here before and have bounced back. This week I removed the night games from being premium to provide the maximum number of free NFL point spread picks .

This week we use 18% of bankroll again split evenly across our 3 premium games giving us a bet of about $600 per game. Below are the computer-based NFL point spread predictions for week 8:

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
BALTIMORE @ CINCINNATI -1 -6.0 -5.0 65.7%
INDIANAPOLIS @ PITTSBURGH 3.5 9.5 6.0 62.7%
GREEN BAY @ NEW ORLEANS -1 3.0 4.0 59.6%
SEATTLE @ CAROLINA 5 2.6 -2.4 55.3%
CHICAGO @ NEW ENGLAND -6.5 -8.0 -1.5 54.3%
DETROIT - ATLANTA 4 5.5 1.5 53.4%
BUFFALO @ NY JETS -3 -0.5 2.5 52.3%
ST LOUIS @ KANSAS CITY -7 -12.7 -5.7 51.4%
MIAMI @ JACKSONVILLE 5.5 5.9 0.4 50.0%
SAN DIEGO @ DENVER -8 -7.7 0.3 50.0%
WASHINGTON @ DALLAS -10 -10.4 -0.4 50.0%
OAKLAND @ CLEVELAND -7 -4.5 2.5 50.0%
PHILADELPHIA @ ARIZONA -2.5 -1.3 1.2 49.3%
MINNESOTA @ TAMPA BAY -3 -7.4 -4.4 48.6%
HOUSTON @ TENNESSEE 1.5 -0.6 -2.1 48.5%

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

2014 NFL Betting Picks - Week 7

Pick 1: Seattle -7 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: San Francisco +6.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: Miami +4 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 4: Buffalo -5.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick

After spending plenty of time doing research and enjoying the games (did you witness the Denver Vegas moment?!), my wife asked that I sell the picks. She understands the value that a VP in Analytics can provide to sports investors so she's encouraging me to do so (or else). I have posted 5 Reasons Why You Want to Buy NFLpickles' Picks on the subscription page. They include my 100% guarantee, my record, experience, transparency, focus on NFL point spreads and affordable prices.

For only $199 you get all the picks until the end of the season + playoffs. These type of picks go for about $500 in other places. These places try to sell you picks in every sport you can imagine by sports fanatics and not experienced data scientists.

Get ALL 2014 NFLpickles' Point Spread Picks
100% Guarantee - If all picks go under 50% ATS, I'll give you your money back

Many of you have followed me since I started in 2007 and know my record: 4 winning seasons in the past 6 years, and one break even. All my stats by year are on the side bar and you can access every pick I've made since 2007, that's transparency. Do notice that I've kept the majority of the picks free, but premium picks are only provided to members.

We raise the bankroll this week to use 18% of bankroll split evenly across 4 games giving us a bet of $490 per game. Here is the full list of NFL betting spread predictions for week 7:

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
SEATTLE @ ST LOUIS 7 11.1 4.1 61.5%
SAN FRANCISCO @ DENVER -6.5 -2.7 3.8 58.2%
MIAMI @ CHICAGO -4 -1.5 2.5 58.1%
MINNESOTA @ BUFFALO -5.5 -9.8 -4.3 58.0%
ARIZONA @ OAKLAND 4 8.8 4.8 56.7%
KANSAS CITY @ SAN DIEGO -4 -3.0 1.0 55.5%
CLEVELAND @ JACKSONVILLE 6 8 2/0 55.3%
NY JETS @ NEW ENGLAND * -10 -14.3 -4.3 54.3%
TENNESSEE @ WASHINGTON -6 -7.2 -1.2 53.3%
HOUSTON @ PITTSBURGH * -3.5 -3.7 -0.2 50.0%
NEW ORLEANS @ DETROIT -3 -3.3 -0.3 50.0%
CAROLINA @ GREEN BAY -7 -5.0 2.0 50.0%
CINCINNATI @ INDIANAPOLIS -3.5 -1.5 2.0 48.3%
NY GIANTS @ DALLAS -6.5 -10.2 -3.7 47.8%
ATLANTA @ BALTIMORE -7 -11.0 -4.0 47.8%

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.