Super Bowl Pick

Pick: Indianapolis -4.5 -$180

How sad it is that the season has come to an end, so fast. I should really take up sports investing in some other sport in order to be into it throughout the year. Unfortunately, "real work" and kids will not allow me to do this (unless...).

Talking about work. My co-workers and I are doing this NFL picks (straight-up) throughout the NFL playoffs. So far, of course, I'm ahead even though they have the advantage of looking at my picks before they make theirs. It has come down to only two (me and Dave). The only way Dave can win is if we pick opposites and he's right. For a second, I thought of posting my pick after the coming Friday so he can't see my pick, but I'm so confident against the spread (yet even more straight up) that I will reveal it early for you, Dave.

Peyton Manning is a proven champion and I would never bet against one. Who would ever best against Michael Jordan? Although these two athletes are incomparable, they are both champions and when given their moment, they will triumph. Forget Dwight Freeney and all other small details. This is about Drew vs Peyton, I chose Peyton.

New Orleans deserves to win. The city and the fans need this ring, but NO not at homw is a no-no. Remember the 3-point victory against STL, NO should have crushed St. Louis! And the list goes on about the Saints when their visiting. In the Super Bowl, their playing at a neutral field, but I think its all about being at home or not. And when they're not at home they, s$%@. Even with a spread of 5.5 as of today, my pick is Peyton to win at least by 7. In fact, I will predict the final score to be: 35-27. Betting only 10% of bankroll in order to enjoy the success of the season regardless of the outcome.

Enjoy the off-season everyone, and if you know someone or someone that knows someone that needs statistical analysis in the sports area, send'em my way. Great season everyone and thank you for all your encouragement, feedback, and contribution.

Sincerely,

Jaime
admin(at)nflpickles.com


Here are the NFLpickles free point spread predictions for SUPER BOWL 44!

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
SUPER BOWL: NEW ORLEANS - INDIANAPOLIS	-5.5	-8	-2.5	56%

How to read the table:

• Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
• Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
• Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
• Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.
  

No Conference Picks, NFL Pickles on Vacation

I am currently on an enchanted island in the Caribbean. The statistical software that runs the computer based NFL picks and game simulations was left in Chicago. Sorry for the inconvenience. I'll be back to put up THE super bowl pick with score predictions.

2009 Divisional Point Spread Picks

Pick 1: New Orleans -7 + $127.27
Pick 2: New York +7 + $127.27
Pick 3: Dallas +2.5 -$140
Pick 4: Indianapolis -6.5 + $127.27


If anything has taught us about last week's games is that anything can happen. Throw away your biases, ignore consensus picks, look at the numbers, and make solid picks. You do not have to agree with me, and if you don't, tell me why. Our goal is to come out profitable every playoff week and finish above 100% ROI. Risking 30% of bankroll this week equals $140 per game.

Here are the NFLpickles free point spread predictions for the Divisional Playoff games 2009.

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
ARIZONA @ NEW ORLEANS	-7	-9.3	-2.3	59%
NY JETS @ SAN DIEGO	-7	-2.2	4.8	58%
DALLAS @ MINNESOTA	-2.5	1.5	1.0	57%
BALTIMORE @ INDIANAPOLIS	-6.5	-10.0	-3.5	56%

How to read the table:

• Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
• Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
• Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
• Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.
  

2009 Wild Card Playoffs

Pick 1: Packers -$175
Pick 2: Cowbows + $159.09
Pick 3: Jets + $159.09

Most of you will probably disagree with the Cowboys and Jets pick right? According to Covers, 60% of players pick New England against the spread, 62% Green Bay, 60% Cincinnati, and 58% Philadelphia. Not to fear though, when confidence is high, NFL Pickles has proven to be much more successful than the wisdom of the crowds. At Project Point Spread for example, last time I checked, the fan base was 111-107, 53% ATS. True, they are picking all games, and for that, it is actually pretty good. ThePredictionTracker has only 10 computer based NFL football predictions models above 53%.

For the playoffs, we are increasing risk a bit since there is only a few games left in the season. Also, we have a better idea of the accuracy against the spread, which lifts percent of payroll to use in a given week. 3 games at $175 each uses 30% of bankroll for the week. Here is why I like this week's picks:

Packers @ Arizona $175 - Green Bay finished the regular season with the best record against the spread. Packers went for it in the last week, Arizona slacked off. I like Rodgers' attitude. Boldin is questionable for the Cardinals, but also is Charles Woodson for GB. Green Bay's defensive strategy is simple: double team Fitzgerald at all times and you will get the same result that happened in SF in Week 14 Monday Night.

Philadelphia @ Dallas $175 - 1) The Eagles scored zero points last week in Dallas. 2) They're playing in Dallas. 3) The computer based model says so.

NY Jets @ Cincinnati $175 - Defense wins games, and the Jets have a huge defensive advantage by allowing 4 points and 50 yards less per game than Cinci.

Here are the NFLpickles free point spread predictions for Wild Card Playoffs 2009.

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
GREEN BAY @ ARIZONA	-1	5.0	6.0	57%
PHILADELPHIA @ DALLAS	-4	-7.0	-3.0	56%
NY JETS @ CINCINNATI	-2.5	6.0	8.5	56%
BALTIMORE @ NEW ENGLAND	-3	-4.0	-1.0	51%

How to read the table:

• Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
• Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
• Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
• Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.
  

2009 NFL Spread Picks Week 17

No Picks this week. There are too many variables to account for with many teams having nothing to play for. Baltimore, Chicago, and Philadelphia were tempting picks. We'll save our energy and money for the playoffs. Below is the table with point spread predictions.

Here are the NFLpickles free point spread predictions for Week 17 of 2009.

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
PHILADELPHIA @ DALLAS	-3	0.5	3.5	65%
BALTIMORE @ OAKLAND	10.5	12.0	1.5	61%
INDIANAPOLIS @ BUFFALO	-7.5	1.5	9.0	57%
NEW ORLEANS @ CAROLINA	-7	-9.0	-2.0	57%
NEW ENGLAND @ HOUSTON	-8	-5.5	2.5	57%
CHICAGO @ DETROIT	3	8.9	5.9	56%
NY GIANTS @ MINNESOTA	-9	-7.7	1.3	55%
WASHINGTON @ SAN DIEGO	-4	-7.2	-3.2	54%
GREEN BAY @ ARIZONA	-3.5	3.6	7.1	53%
TENNESSEE @ SEATTLE	4.5	11.9	7.4	51%
ATLANTA @ TAMPA BAY	2.5	9.1	6.6	50%
SAN FRANCISCO @ ST LOUIS	7	14.2	7.2	49%
PITTSBURGH @ MIAMI	3	7.1	4.1	47%
CINCINNATI @ NY JETS	-10	-12.2	-2.2	45%
KANSAS CITY @ DENVER	-13	-9.1	3.9	45%
JACKSONVILLE @ CLEVELAND	-1	-3.4	-2.4	42%

How to read the table:

• Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
• Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
• Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
• Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.
  

2009 NFL Point Spread Picks Week 16

Pick 1: Denver +7 + $113.64
Pick 2: New England -7.5 + $113.64
Pick 3: Oakland +3.5 -$125

I'll spare you this week of made up match-up descriptions, my gift to you these holidays :)

Your bankroll is your greatest asset, preserve it. But as the end of the season approaches and the return is up at 62%, we'll upgrade the bankroll for the coming weeks and the playoffs. This week, 22%. Three games = $125/gm. I'm on vacation (but still had some time to continue providing you with computer based NFL picks). Enjoy your holidays and Merry Christmas.

Here are the NFLpickles free point spread estimates for Week 16 of 2009.

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
DENVER @ PHILADELPHIA	-7	-3.5	3.5	69%
JACKSONVILLE @ NEW ENGLAND	-7.5	-9.1	-1.6	59%
OAKLAND @ CLEVELAND	-3.5	1.8	5.3	59%
KANSAS CITY @ CINCINNATI	-14	-15.5	-1.5	55%
NY JETS @ INDIANAPOLIS	-5.5	-8.0	-2.5	54%
SAN DIEGO @ TENNESSEE	-3	5	8.0	53%
DALLAS @ WASHINGTON	7	3.5	-3.5	53%
ST LOUIS @ ARIZONA	-14	-17.7	-3.7	53%
BALTIMORE @ PITTSBURGH	-2.5	5.8	8.3	52%
CAROLINA @ NY GIANTS	-7	-6.7	0.3	50%
HOUSTON @ MIAMI	-3	-4.0	-1.0	49%
SEATTLE @ GREEN BAY	-14	-12.9	1.1	48%
TAMPA BAY @ NEW ORLEANS	-14	-17.0	-3.0	48%
MINNESOTA @ CHICAGO	7	11.0	4.0	46%
BUFFALO @ ATLANTA	-9	-5.0	4.0	46%
DETROIT @ SAN FRANCISCO	-12	-10.2	1.8	45%

How to read the table:

• Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
• Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
• Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
• Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.
  

2009 NFL Point Spread Picks Week 15

Pick 1: New England -7 PUSH
Pick 2: New Orleans -7 -$100
Pick 3: Indianapolis -3 + $83.33
Pick 4: Pittsburgh -1 PUSH

As the playoffs approach, point spread estimates and picks should be considered very carefully. Teams with secured spots sit their main players and others do not play as hard as they usually do. Usually, week 17 is a no-bet, unless one finds opportunities in games where both teams are fighting for either a playoff spot or home field advantage. I expect the Saints and Colts to continue to play hard and cover the spread this week in order to try to finish with a perfect season.

With a little over 20% of the bankroll, we'll continue our disciplined betting system and strive for more growth as the season ends. With four picks, this equals ~ $100/game. This computer based system has proven to be very successful in the playoffs so we should be decreasing bets in week 16 and 17 and increase for the playoffs.

New England @ Buffalo $100 - The Patriots have done terribly on the road (1-5), but the Bills are not doing that well either at home. Bills have lost to the Patriots in their last 12 games! 12 is a small number I know, but it is reassuring to know. New England needs this game a lot more than the Bills. New England rocks the Bills.

Dallas @ New Orleans $100 - The Saints at home, do I need to say more?

Indianapolis @ Jacksonville $100 (120) - Everyone is all over this spread, which gives me less confident than more. All starters are expected to play on Thursday for the Colts. Will the 22-game winning streak be stopped by the Jaguars? I don't think so. The estimate and the spread are very different, a not so common situation when there are no key players sitting out.

Green Bay @ Pittsburgh $100 - What, the Steelers are going to win this game? This is a classical game of buy low/sell high. The Steelers' 5-game losing streak has this spread beaten down. Also, look at Green Bay's wins: Chicago (2), St. Louis, Detroit (2), Cleveland, Dallas, SF, Baltimore. It's time they face a "tough" team.

Without further ado, here are the NFLpickles free point spread estimates for Week 15 of 2009.

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
NEW ENGLAND @ BUFFALO	7	9.7	2.7	67%
DALLAS @ NEW ORLEANS	-7	-10.7	-3.7	62%
INDIANAPOLIS @ JACKSONVILLE	3.0	14.3	11.3	57%
GREEN BAY @ PITTSBURGH	-1	-6.0	-5.0	57%
TAMPA BAY @ SEATTLE	-7	-11.4	-4.4	53%
SAN FRANCISCO @ PHILADELPHIA	-9	3.3	12.3	50%
NY GIANTS @ WASHINGTON	3	-1.9	-4.9	50%
ATLANTA @ NY JETS	-6	-7.1	-1.1	49%
OAKLAND @ DENVER	-14	-19.0	-5.0	48%
HOUSTON @ ST LOUIS	10.5	19.2	8.7	48%
MINNESOTA @ CAROLINA	9	17.2	8.2	48%
ARIZONA @ DETROIT	12	8.0	-4.0	47%
CLEVELAND @ KANSAS CITY	-2	-4.2	-2.2	47%
CHICAGO @ BALTIMORE	-10.5	-13.0	-2.5	46%
CINCINNATI @ SAN DIEGO	-6.5	-7.5	-1.0	45%
MIAMI @ TENNESSEE	-3	-10.3	-7.3	45%

How to read the table:

• Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
• Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
• Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
• Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.
  

2009 NFL Point Spread Picks Week 14

Pick 1: Denver +7 -$100
Pick 2: Green Bay -3 + $90.91
Pick 3: Arizona -3 -$100
Pick 4: Miami +3 + $90.91

Statistics, NFL, Mineful, and golf, all my favorite things to do, seem so unimportant compared to one's child. This week I experienced a perfect birth and it put everything into perspective. After my precious daughter was born this Monday, I realized that everything I do, including this blog, is for my children's health, education, and better life.

This blog is not only about making picks, but about sports investing discipline. We've gone up and down, but thanks this year's new money management strategy, today we are above 65% ROI. If we maintain moderation in our investment, we'll stay strong until the end of the year and years to come. If not, you may end up being the man who drowned crossing a stream with an average depth of six inches. - W.I.E. Gates

The short short version of each game.
DEN @ IND $100 - Both teams are 8-4 ATS. Indi is playing for their perfect season and Denver for the playoffs, which one is more important?
GB @ CHI $100 - Chicago just plain sucks. Green Bay is hungry for the wild card. The Packers destroy the Bears.
ARI @ SF $100 - Arizona is back to its Super Bowl shape but the spread has yet to notice. Although SF is #1 ATS in the league, this may be the over-correction week.
MIA @ JAC $100 - Miami has faced a much tougher schedule and hence its lower standing. Many formulas out there are based on W-L record, not mine.

Without further ado, here are the NFLpickles free point spread estimates for Week 14 of 2009.

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
DENVER @ INDIANAPOLIS	-7	0.7	7.7	60%
GREEN BAY @ CHICAGO	3	8.5	5.5	59%
ARIZONA @ SAN FRANCISCO	3	7.0	4.0	59%
MIAMI @ JACKSONVILLE	-3	5.7	8.7	58%
SEATTLE @ HOUSTON	-6	-9.8	-3.8	56%
CINCINNATI @ MINNESOTA	-6.5	-11.0	-4.5	53%
DETROIT @ BALTIMORE	-13.5	-16.0	-2.5	53%
CAROLINA @ NEW ENGLAND	-13.5	-15.6	-2.1	53%
BUFFALO @ KANSAS CITY	0	3.5	3.5	53%
PHILADELPHIA @ NY GIANTS	-1	1.0	2.0	51%
SAN DIEGO @ DALLAS	-3	1.0	4.0	50%
NEW ORLEANS @ ATLANTA	9.5	11.5	2.0	50%
NY JETS @ TAMPA BAY	3.5	11.2	7.7	50%
PITTSBURGH @ CLEVELAND	10	9.1	-0.9	49%
ST LOUIS @ TENNESSEE	-13	-16.7	-3.7	48%
WASHINGTON @ OAKLAND	1	6.3	-2.4	47%

How to read the table:

• Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
• Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
• Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
• Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.
  

2009 NFL Point Spread Picks Week 13

Pick 1: New Orleans -9.5 -$120
Pick 2: Indianapolis -7 + $109.09
Pick 3: Denver -5 + $109.09

Slowly getting out of the pickle with NFLpickles. 7-1 the last two weeks and I'm as confident as always in these week's picks. New Orleans has not demonstrated convincing wins on the road against weak teams (hence the underestimation of this 11-0 team), but after last week's performance how could one ignore this pick? I love betting with Indi. This team never gives up; positive attitudes, hard work, and discipline are components of an 11-0 team that I like to see. 7 points at home? I'm all over this. Finally, Denver is being underrated by much in this game. Orton and the gang are coming back to the shape they were in the early weeks, and a beaten down KC will lose by much more than 5 points.

As for bankroll, we'll continue our conservative 22% approach and distribute them equally to each pick. That is, each pick will receive $120. Sorry for the brief report this week, my wife is starting to have contractions and I may be a father once again soon. Good luck!

Without further ado, here are the NFLpickles free point spread estimates for Week 13 of 2009.

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
NEW ORLEANS @ WASHINGTON	9.5	11.5	2.0	63%
TENNESSEE @ INDIANAPOLIS	-7	-15.4	-8.4	60%
DENVER @ KANSAS CITY	5	16.7	11.7	57%
ST LOUIS @ CHICAGO	-9	-7.3	1.7	55%
OAKLAND @ PITTSBURGH	-14	-4.8	9.2	53%
DETROIT @ CINCINNATI	-13	-15.4	-2.4	53%
MINNESOTA @ ARIZONA	4	2.2	-1.8	52%
NY JETS @ BUFFALO	3	7.3	4.3	52%
SAN DIEGO @ CLEVELAND	13	11.5	-1.5	50%
NEW ENGLAND @ MIAMI	5.5	10.8	5.3	50%
TAMPA BAY @ CAROLINA	-6.5	-5.7	0.8	49%
PHILADELPHIA @ ATLANTA	5.5	0.9	-4.6	48%
DALLAS @ NY GIANTS	2.5	4.3	1.8	48%
BALTIMORE @ GREEN BAY	-3	-4.1	-1.1	46%
HOUSTON @ JACKSONVILLE	0	10.8	10.8	45%
SAN FRANCISCO @ SEATTLE	0	5.0	5.0	44%

How to read the table:

• Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
• Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
• Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
• Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.
  

2009 NFL Point Spread Picks Week 12

Pick 1: Indianapolis -3.5 + $114.29
Pick 2: Minnesota -10.5 + $66.67
Pick 3: San Francisco -3 + $109.09

Happy Thanksgiving week to everyone! For those of you worried that you might have one eye on the turkey and the other on the Packers or Cowboys game, worry no more. Those games are not included in this week's picks; although the Cowboys will crush the Raiders at home, the Packers will breeze through Detroit, and Denver beats the Giants.

This week I have 3 NFL locks of the week, yeah right. Have you heard people say that? Who can believe them? In any case, lets deep dive into the 3 NFL spread picks of the week:

IND @ HOU $120 (105) - A 10-0 team playing a 5-5 and the spread is 3, how come? Indi on average scores 4 more points and allows 5 less points than Houston. Indi is 5-0 ATS on the road in the last 5 games, tells me nothing though, but interesting. Consensus favors Indi heavily, which actually worries me. Indi beat Houston by 3 at home in week 9 and since then has won two games by less than 2 points each. This I like, low confidence that they can build a marginal lead.

CHI @ MIN $120 - Chicago is a disaster, but there are still hopes (at least here in Chicago) that they can turn around this team this year, not a chance. The Vikings are very impressive; scoring 10 points more and allowing 3 points less than the Bears. Until the Bears fix their offensive line, rushing game, coaching strategies, wide receivers, and overall confidence, I will confidently go with my model's prediction and bet against my beloved Bears.

JAC @ SF $80 - San Francisco has the best record against the spread so far this year, according to my ATS Standings. Jacksonville has had 3 straight wins (KC, NYJ, BUF). They run and pass the ball with more yardage than the 49ers. QB Mike Smith increased his rating last week with a good second half against the Packers. Least confident of the 3 games, lower wager.


Without further ado, here are the NFLpickles free point spread estimates for Week 12 of 2009.

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
INDIANAPOLIS @ HOUSTON	3	5.0	2.0	63%
CHICAGO @ MINNESOTA	-10.5	-13.5	-3.0	58%
JACKSONVILLE @ SAN FRANCISCO	-3	-8.6	-5.6	57%
OAKLAND @ DALLAS	-13.5	-15.1	3.4	56%
KANSAS CITY @ SAN DIEGO	-13.5	-10.1	3.4	53%
PITTSBURGH @ BALTIMORE	-2.5	-5.8	-3.3	53%
WASHINGTON @ PHILADELPHIA	-9	-11.0	-2.0	53%
CLEVELAND @ CINCINNATI	-14	-17.9	-3.9	52%
TAMPA BAY @ ATLANTA	-12	-16.4	-4.4	52%
CAROLINA @ NY JETS	-3	-3.2	-0.2	50%
ARIZONA @ TENNESSEE	-1	0.6	1.6	50%
NY GIANTS @ DENVER	6.5	-5.1	-11.6	50%
MIAMI @ BUFFALO	3	4.0	1.0	50%
GREEN BAY @ DETROIT	10	18.8	8.8	48%
NEW ENGLAND @ NEW ORLEANS	-3	-2.0	1.0	47%
SEATTLE @ ST LOUIS	3	1.5	-1.5	42%

How to read the table:

• Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
• Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
• Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
• Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.