NFL Picks - Week 6 + Data-Driven Update

Greetings, NFL enthusiasts! 
You may have noticed a temporary pause in our regular machine learning picks, and I wanted to take a moment to explain why. It has become evident that relying on last year's data during the first weeks can lead us to wrong decisions. It's better to forego machine learning models altogether in the beginning weeks than to base our decisions on potentially inaccurate information. So that’s why I haven’t even posted the machine learning picks. 

We're currently hard at work refining our models, and a key focus has been on integrating the latest metrics, with a special emphasis on DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average). This metric has long been a linchpin in our decision-making process, particularly when it comes to high-stakes events like the Super Bowl. While it's not infallible, it has demonstrated its reliability in specific scenarios. 

One of the most intriguing observations we've made over the years is the pivotal role of offense. When measured against the opposing team's pass or run defense, opportunities start to surface. For example, consider San Francisco this week with a dominant offense, paired with a defense that outperforms its counterpart, and the spread is less than a touchdown. In situations like this, where the offense outshines its rival by a staggering 50%, while the defense maintains a 15% edge, the potential for a decisive victory is palpable. 

Detroit is another example. Despite boasting a 35% overall superiority, the spread stands at a mere 3 points. This discrepancy underscores the hidden potential that lies within the matchups. 

As we eagerly await updates on Kelce's injury status for the Kansas City game, it's clear that the Chiefs have the potential for a high-scoring affair, especially against a defense that trails 35% behind the average. The addition of Jacksonville into the mix introduces an exciting new dimension to our models. 

This week is definitely chalky but I do expect to find those hidden treasures in future weeks for the underdogs. 

Week 6 Picks: 
  • SF -5 
  • JAC -4 
  • DET -3 
  • KC -10.5