NFL Picks - Week 10

Last week was quite successful, with our picks hitting a solid 60% mark, going 3-2 ATS. Despite a near win with Houston, I'm confident in our methodology and models. We focused on teams with superior DVOA, a stronger passing offense compared to the defense they were up against, and the ability to defend against the run, preventing the opposing team from controlling the clock. Baltimore, the Colts, and Cleveland all met these criteria last week and came through. While KC performed admirably for us in Germany, the Patriots' victory over the Commanders was a surprise upset.

This week, we've identified four teams that fit this winning characteristic:


Here are the compelling reasons why the Colts are poised to cover the spread against the New England Patriots:

  • Indianapolis is favored by a narrow 1.5-point margin, indicating confidence in their performance.

  • The Colts have consistently demonstrated their offensive prowess by scoring a minimum of 20 points in every game, showcasing their ability to put points on the board.

  • Jonathan Taylor, a key playmaker for the Colts, is poised for a standout performance. The Packers' weaker passing defense could create ample opportunities for Taylor to shine.

  • Statistically, the Colts hold a significant 15% advantage in DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average), highlighting their superior overall performance.

  • With an above-average run defense, the Colts possess the capability to limit the Patriots' ground game and control the tempo of the match.

  • In terms of passing offense, the Colts have the upper hand over the Patriots, whose aerial attack is notably less potent and lacks the same level of firepower.

This combination of offensive consistency, favorable matchups, and statistical advantages positions the Colts as a strong contender to not only cover the spread but potentially secure a decisive victory against the New England Patriots. Go Colts!

For the 3 other picks, go to