Pick 2: San Francisco -3
Pick 3: New York Giants +3
Last week over time games killed me. Although one ended up in a push, Green Bay couldn't hold on. Our homedog proved to be successful. Unfortunately, this week there are only two home dogs: Carolina and Miami one of which I'm picking the visiting team. Two other visiting teams include this week's NFL point spread. We need to get the ball rolling here, pronto. As in last week, we'll put $121 per game.
These three picks I have found so far are not crowd pleasers. On some places, the spread has shifted in the other direction and in others they're offering even or 105. We really need a winning week and bounce back to green. Good luck everyone!
Other noticeable picks are: Philadelphia and New England. Once again, here are the NFLpickles free point spread estimates for Week 7 of 2010.
| Game | Vegas Line | Estimate | Prediction-Vegas | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PITTSBURGH @ MIAMI | 3 | 16.4 | 13.4 | 59.9% |
| SAN FRANCISCO @ CAROLINA | 3 | 7.3 | 4.3 | 58.5% |
| NY GIANTS @ DALLAS | -3 | 12.9 | 15.9 | 57.3% |
| PHILADELPHIA @ TENNESSEE | -3 | 0.8 | 3.2 | 55.8% |
| NEW ENGLAND @ SAN DIEGO | -3 | 1.7 | 4.7 | 55.1% |
| CLEVELAND @ NEW ORLEANS | -13 | -8.0 | 5.0 | 54.0% |
| MINNESOTA @ GREEN BAY | -2.5 | -4.8 | -2.3 | 52.9% |
| WASHINGTON @ CHICAGO | -3 | -1.7 | 1.3 | 50.8% |
| ARIZONA @ SEATTLE | -5.5 | -16.6 | -11.1 | 50.4% |
| JACKSONVILLE @ KANSAS CITY | -4.5 | -3 | 1 | 50.2% |
| OAKLAND @ DENVER | -7 | 3.3 | 10.3 | 50.1% |
| ST LOUIS @ TAMPA BAY | -3 | 6.9 | 9.9 | 48.0% |
| BUFFALO @ BALTIMORE | -13 | -15.4 | -2.4 | 47.0% |
| CINCINNATI @ ATLANTA | -3.5 | -5.2 | -1.7 | 46.8% |
How to read the table:
- Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
- Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
- Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
- Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.
11 comments:
Hey, look! Some overlap this week! I've got the other side of the 49ers/Panthers... and I got a better price on the Giants. My lines are from about 15 hours ago.
406 Falcons -3.5
429 Giants +3.5 [Mon]
418 Panthers +3
418 49ers/Panthers UNDER 35
423 Pats +3
2-2-0 last week (which, if anybody is counting, puts me at 12-10-1 on the season) managing to both live and die by the hook in the same week.
Good luck this week and beyond!
Jaime,
Your numbers point to Dallas being favored by 12.9 Is this an error on your transfer of numbers or did you pick New York by mistake?
I had some beginner's luck last week with my 3-0-1 start.
This week my model is picking:
Bengals +3.5
Broncos -8
I may have another pick, but I'm waiting on an injury report to clear up.
My spreadsheet results are showing more green than red as of last week. Although my picks were
2-2 the overall results are looking up 8-4-2 ATS. Jaime this week my sheet completely agrees with PIT, NYG but my play is on CAR. Nice work Probable. My selections this week, nearly the same as dtBy , hum…….I wonder if…….?
CAR +2
NE +3
NYG +3
SEA –5.5
It's ok, George! I didn't steal your spreadsheet. My model is all perl/R/duct tape.
Hey Jaime,
Looks like it might be another messed up week in the NFL this week. My picks vs yours are:
PIT -3
SF -3
NYG +3
Good luck.
Hey, just found your site online... looks like some good work here...
Question: Why do you subtract the vegas line from the prediction instead of averaging them? For example, suppose both vegas and your prediction are 3 points, confirming one another. The average is 3, but if you subtract them you get 0....
Thanks! -Jamie
Nice 4-1 week dtBy and an even better one for George. I need to dig deep next week and come out of this slump. If not I am really going to get in trouble, with my wife.
Risky, what would the average of my prediction and Vegas spread tell me? The difference would show how apart they are which is what I am trying to demonstrate.
I would take the UNDER on the total again in a do-over situation!
I'm sure you'll put together a nice mid-season run here in the next few weeks. It's still early and results are still crazy!
Jaime, hang in there. This has been a most unpredictable season so far. Your methods have already been proven in my eyes.
DtBy, I know your half a day ahead but let me post my plays first this week. Two weeks ago I had two of your three sides, and three of four last week. Duct tape, a fundamental part of any system. Arrgh! and perl those must be Johnny Depp movie reference’s.
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