Pick 2: Buffalo +5.5
Pick 3: Denver +10
I like Green Bay beating down the broken Vikings, Buffalo putting a decent offensive show, and Denver keeping the game close at San Diego. Keeping the 20% bankroll use, gives us a bet of $105 per game. As always, interested in your plays.
Once again, here are the NFLpickles free point spread estimates for Week 11 of 2010.
| Game | Vegas Line | Estimate | Prediction-Vegas | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GREEN BAY @ MINNESOTA | 3 | 7.6 | 3.6 | 60.1% |
| BUFFALO @ CINCINNATI | -5.5 | -3 | 2.5 | 57.0% |
| DENVER @ SAN DIEGO | -10 | -6.4 | 3.6 | 57.1% |
| TAMPA BAY @ SAN FRANCISCO | -3 | 2.2 | 5.2 | 56.9% |
| BALTIMORE @ CAROLINA | 10 | 14.5 | 4.5 | 54.5% |
| ATLANTA @ ST LOUIS | 3 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 54.1% |
| ARIZONA @ KANSAS CITY | -8 | -13.0 | -5 | 53.8% |
| HOUSTON @ NY JETS | -7 | -7.1 | -0.1 | 53.8% |
| OAKLAND @ PITTSBURGH | -7 | -7.3 | -0.3 | 53.8% |
| WASHINGTON @ TENNESSEE | -7 | -8.3 | -1.3 | 51.1% |
| INDIANAPOLIS @ NEW ENGLAND | -3.5 | -1.5 | 2.0 | 50.8% |
| CHICAGO @ MIAMI | -1 | -3.9 | -2.9 | 50.8% |
| DETROIT @ DALLAS | -6.5 | -1.2 | 5.3 | 50.0% |
| SEATTLE @ NEW ORLEANS | -12 | -7.2 | 4.8 | 48.0% |
| CLEVELAND @ JACKSONVILLE | -1.5 | 4,3 | 5.8 | 47.5% |
| NY GIANTS @ PHILADELPHIA | -3 | -7.6 | -4.6 | 47.4% |
How to read the table:
- Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
- Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
- Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
- Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.
5 comments:
No overlap this week... and I'm not overly excited about any of my picks, either. For some reason, I just can't stop picking the Lions, although I wish I had gotten the +7 opener.
417 Lions +6.5
416 Titans -7
409 Raiders +7.5
Also no overlap this week: I have
Raiders +7
Lions +6
Seahawks +11.5
I also have three overs this week: Ravens Panthers over 37
Lions Cowboys over 46
Rams Falcons over 43
Also have the Jets as a straight up pick as long as the moneyline is appropriate - Not sure since the line is down due to Schaub's status.
I have lots of picks this week:
Falcons -3, Saints -11.5, Eagles -3, Raiders +7.5, Browns +1.5 and Bills +6.
So we overlap on the Bills, and I'm glad to see some others have the Raiders too.
Raiders were at +9 with the opening line and I managed to miss it. It really seems like Oakland and Seattle are under valued this week.
Raiders +7.5, Packers +3.5, Seahawks +12, Bills +5, Indy +4.
Small Road Dog Parlay with the Colts & Bills on the money line. Never know :)
Nice week probable
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