Monday Night Football Pick Week 9

My carelessness was the reason for this week's unsuccessful picks. The Bears made the push which is part of the reason I'm adding a Monday Night Football pick this Sunday. But also, because after I heard that Hasselbeck wasn't playing, I didn't retire my pick. First, I should have stayed away from a game where the QB had a concussion, I always do. I also guess I need a better injury report. Any suggestions? The other reason for this pick is the difference in the estimate and the spread. The point spread is currently at 5.5 and the model is predicting at 21 for PIT. Although the confidence is below threshold at 53.5%, I'm going for it on 4th down.

Pick 3: PIT -5.5 correct NFL point spread pick +$125 (approx 8% of bankroll)

9 comments:

George said...

Wow Jaime

This surprises me. I followed you since week nine last year, and read every single word you have posted on this site. Some pages multiple times. It sure sounds like your chasing after a lost cause. I say retract this play, saddle-up and get’m next week. My sheet has PITT as a 4.21 advantage. Enough to be on radar but not enough make it a play.

And I’m quoting here……..
“Developing a strategy, testing it, sticking with your proved system regardless of the present consequences is smart gambling or like I like to call it investing.”

Jaime said...

You are right George, this behavior is very unlike me. But my strategy has been to bet +57% games and I broke that this week too. I won't retract this play, I'll take the hit if need be. But this craziness wont happen again.

Bet only games with 57% plus confidence where any of the key players are not injured or out of the game.

dtBy said...

I'm late to the game here, but I was also shocked that you added a Monday Night chaser. I trust you're actually doing this within the bounds of your system as you explain, though.

If I had to pick this game, I'd go with the Steelers, myself but I have the game pegged at 5.82... which, while an admittedly unlikely exact outcome, is way too close to 5.5 for me to really like either side.

Good luck, as always.

dtBy said...

Good sweat; good win.

Jaime said...

I was hoping for a blowout. This one just didn't feel right.

Mike d. said...

As for injury reports, I usually just go to NFL.com, listen to a couple ESPN podcasts on Friday, and also follow Adam Schefter on Twitter, because he sends out updates on key injuries all the time.

Nick said...

How would you do if you took all of your picks, regardless of confidence?

How do you justify increasing average risk per game as the bankroll declines? Is there a "Kelly formula" to determine the appropriate number of games to play?

Jaime said...

Nick,

1- Not too good.
2- We started the season in week 5 and then we were doing below Kelly's formula estimate. At week 7, we leveled. I have a simplified way to Kelly's formula. For now, it should be constant and as bankroll decreases the total used decreases, but not the percentage.
3- Good question. Not that I know of. I've been approached and told that parlay in the long run would pay off better. Haven't looked into it. What do you think?

Nick said...

I think 2 and 3 team parlays can add value since these are your most confident games and the house edge isn't prohibitive. At 4 teams and above, you are playing less confident games, and the house edge is prohibitive.