2010 NFL Point Spread Picks Week 16

Pick 1: NY Giants +3 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Indianapolis -3 correct NFL point spread pick

Two games this week were teams have something to play for, the playoffs. Well, maybe Oakland although not mathematically out of it, slight chance of making it. Better for the Colts who need a must win to clinch or be in a better position in their division. The Packers-Giants game is huge for the Giants. Here again, the Packers are in a similar position as the Raiders, not completely out but pretty much. I expect the Giants to come out furious after last week's devastating loss.

Bring it it down a bit to save for the playoffs, using 20% of bankroll we designate approximately $200 to each game.

Next week there will be no picks.































































































































GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
NY GIANTS @ GREEN BAY-33.96.964.5%
INDIANAPOLIS @ OAKLAND317.614.660.5%
NY JETS @ CHICAGO-1-2.6-1.658.0%
DETROIT @ MIAMI-3.5-1.32.256.6%
HOUSTON @ DENVER36.93.955.8%
BALTIMORE @ CLEVELAND310.57.555.6%
CAROLINA @ PITTSBURGH-14.5-16.9-2.452.4%
MINNESOTA @ PHILADELPHIA-14-9.05.052.2%
NEW ORLEANS @ ATLANTA-2.5-0.71.851.6%
NEW ENGLAND @ BUFFALO83.54.551.5%
SEATTLE @ TAMPA BAY-6-14.2-8.250.0%
WASHINGTON @ JACKSONVILLE-72.29.250.0%
SAN DIEGO @ CINCINNATI7.523.916.449.1%
DALLAS @ ARIZONA6.53.5-348.1%
SAN FRANCISCO @ ST LOUIS-26.28.248.0%
TENNESSEE @ KANSAS CITY-5-8.0-3.047.5%


How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.

3 comments:

Probable said...

Interesting. My model is (unofficially) pointing to Packers -3, Raiders +3, and Lions +3.5. The good news for you is that my model was wrong each time it liked either side of Oakland games this season.

Unofficial picks were 3-2 last week.

dtBy said...

Crappy 1-2 last week. Double unit play on the Vikings this week.

107 Vikings +14.5 **
122 Chiefs -5
105 Lions +3.5

Off to see if the TNF game is on here somewhere.

dtBy said...

Ok, that's pretty good for not believing in the model.