2010 NFL Point Spread Picks Week 5

Pick 1: Houston -3 -$72 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Jacksonville -1 +$72 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: Green Bay -2.5 -$72 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 4: St. Louis +3 -$72 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 5: Arizona +7 +$72 correct NFL point spread pick

This week we have 5 and possibly 6 picks. This is unusual, I usually get 3 or 4 picks per week. There are two picks with high confidence and four others which have good confidence numbers so we'll take them too. Chicago is the remaining game which we'll be waiting on news about Cutler and see what the spread is like once it becomes public, so for now no bet on the Bears game.

We continue using Kelly's Formula to compute the percentage of the bankroll to use each week. The result was 20%, but to play a bit conservatively during this first week of betting, we'll bring it down to 18% of bankroll(this year NFL Pickles bankroll starts at $2,000). $360/5=$72/game.

ATS Standings have been updated. Vote for the team you think will have the best record against the spread. After your vote, you will be able to see the results.

Here are the NFLpickles free point spread picks for Week 5 of the 2010 NFL season.
















































































































GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
NY GIANTS @ HOUSTON-3-13.5-10.562.8%
JACKSONVILLE @ BUFFALO16561.1%
ST LOUIS @ DETROIT-36958.7%
GREEN BAY @ WASHINGTON2.552.557.1%
NEW ORLEANS @ ARIZONA73-456%
CHICAGO @ CAROLINA2.5-1.9-4.455.0%
MINNESOTA @ NY JETS-4-6.1-2.153.3%
SAN DIEGO @ OAKLAND63-352.8%
KANSAS CITY @ INDIANAPOLIS-8.5-6.91.651.7%
TENNESSEE @ DALLAS-6.5-3.72.850.0%
TAMPA BAY @ CINCINNATI-6.5-33.548.3%
PHILADELPHIA @ SAN FRANCISCO-32.45.647.4%
ATLANTA @ CLEVELAND33.40.446.2%
DENVER @ BALTIMORE-7-10.3-3.345.3%


How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.

4 comments:

dtBy said...

The only game on your list I seriously considered picking was the Rams +3. Now that I see it on your list, I also kinda like the Packers -2.5 but I must admit it was never in contention for one of my picks.

I went a solidly annoying 3-2 last week. Mostly annoying because all 3 of my winners were road favorites and OVER total. I guess I should be happy my model produced them despite my own biases.

Here's what I've got this week:

415 Chiefs +9
433 Titans +6.5
435 Eagles +3.5

Good luck!

George said...

Last week was an ugly 3-5, but now the fun begins. What’s with so many dogs covering this year? DtBy, guess you believe this trend will continue.

Jamie, My system agrees completely with Houston and StL. But no clear separation with Jax or Gbay picks. I’m going opposite of your Ariz. Play. The model also is strong on Chi and Phly, however, both qb’s have a head case so I will avoid these. Eagles are my home team but I see a beat-down coming from the 9er’s this week.

Week 5 plays.
Houston –3
Jets –4
St.Louis +3
NO -7

dtBy said...

George, I'm a big believer that the dogs in the NFL are consistently undervalued by the general public, so whatever value is to be found in the market will usually be on that side.

I think there is also a general tendency on the totals side for the general public to prefer the OVER. After all, people like to watch high scoring games and they like to have their bets locked up before the final whistle.

So that's my theory... it's worked well, in general, for the past 6 or 7 years, but the market is still largely efficient, so you still have to pick your spots.

DDW said...

It's time to make it count. My picks vs yours are:

HOU -3
BUF +1
GB -2.5
STL +3
NO -7

Good luck to you this weekend!