2010 NFL Point Spread Picks Week 14

Pick 1: Philadelphia -3 PUSH
Pick 2: Baltimore -3 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: St. Louis +9.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick

Finally a good week! and much needed. This week again the model is favoring visiting teams. Last week we had Atlanta barely covering and the Rams covering on the road. (plus NE's @home embarrassment to the Jets, covered by way more than 3). This week, I have two strong teams on the road playing non-playoff contenders. Philadelphia goes to Dallas and takes care of business. Baltimore's defense gets two TDs and blows past 5-7 Houston. Finally, the Rams are underdogs by 9.5 in New Orleans. This team is at the top of the ATS Standings and I'm not sure why they are not been given a bit more credit. The Rams lose the game, but keep it close.

Other notable picks include: Giants, Bills.

Again, using 25% of bankroll we designate approximately 150 to each game.































































































































GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
PHILADELPHIA @ DALLAS36.63.362.9%
BALTIMORE @ HOUSTON36.73.760.5%
ST LOUIS @ NEW ORLEANS-9.5-5.4460.1%
NY GIANTS @ MINNESOTA1.531.559.2%
CLEVELAND @ BUFFALO-1-3.3-2.358.0%
KANSAS CITY @ SAN DIEGO-7-5.02.056.1%
DENVER @ ARIZONA4-4-853.4%
ATLANTA @ CAROLINA7.514.67.152.4%
CINCINNATI @ PITTSBURGH-9-6.42.652.0%
INDIANAPOLIS @ TENNESSEE38.65.651.1%
NEW ENGLAND @ CHICAGO3-3.2-6.250.0%
MIAMI @ NY JETS-6.5-60.550.0%
TAMPA BAY @ WASHINGTON2.5-2.2-4.749.6%
OAKLAND @ JACKSONVILLE-4.5-6-1.549.1%
GREEN BAY @ DETROIT75.4-1.649.0%
SEATTLE @ SAN FRANCISCO-4.5-11.6-7.147.5%


How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.

4 comments:

George said...

Remarkable what a good week does for your spirits. Several weeks ago we had to wait till Thursday to see your selections. Nice job, I new the cream would rise to the top.

Probable said...

Only 2 picks so far this week: Jets -5 and Steelers -8.5.

dtBy said...

Been distracted all week working on big (non-football, sadly) model development. I produced these picks sometime this week, but somehow never got them posted up here.

119 Bucs -1
110 Pats/Bears OVER 41
111 Browns +1

I had another 0-3 last week.. which correlates with another good week for NFLPickles.. therefore my bad picks cause Jaime's picks to win!

Probable said...

Added Bills -1.