NFL Point Spread Season Starts This Week

The past four weeks, I have posted my "unofficial" NFL point spread picks. I use the first 4 weeks to get data and study how changes in rosters have affected the teams. Previously, I didn't post picks until week 5, but people have asked for them so I have put them out there. My week 1-4 picks have consistently been terrible (which makes me think to do the opposite :). This year has been no different.

The first 4 weeks have given me a 5-9-1 record for a lousy 36% ATS. I hope you have followed my suggestion and not used these picks. For new readers, I expect you to be dubious of my statistical models. If so, from now on, come by every week and see our progress. Hopefully this year will be as good as the previous 3.

I'm excited to start putting money where my blog is. A little bit of luck will help too. Good luck!


Derek said…
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Derek said…
Jamie, great site, I'm going to be tuning in this season. Keep it up!

I've come up with a couple strategies of my own and started backtesting them on data since 1978 and noticed that results can vary widely across years. One year might have a 70%+ win rate ATS, another might be 25% (excluding pushes). Curious if you've done this sort of thing with your strategies, and, if so, what sort of consistency did you see with the results? Thanks!