Making NFL Spread Picks in 2010
For those of you who haven't followed me in the past, here is a quick overview of what happens in this NFL point spread picks blog:
- Different from other handicappers, I don't claim I can predict at 57%-58% or that last week I was 4-0 so you can pay me money. I put myself out there for you. If it works we all win, if it doesn't, I have to go back to the drawing board or throw the towel.
- My theory is that you cannot go to a casino and consistently beat the house. With the NFL spread, the "price for the game" is set by people (or a collective group of people) and the price may not be necessarily as efficient as the stock market supposedly is.
- My statistical models to predict point spreads take into account many team-level statistics. I provide you each week with the model's point spread prediction, a confidence level, picks and a betting strategy that are kept track of in the top right table of this page.
- In a few situations, we deep dive into a game and analyze their offensive and defensive momentums as well as point spread stats and trends.