2010 NFL Point Spread Picks Week 4

Last week of unofficial picks. That means, starting next week we begin our official NFL pick betting strategy. Our goal is to continue to improve last year's 93% ROI. Every week, a number of games are selected and based on the current bankroll (now at $2K), we use Kelly's formula to determine what percentage of the bankroll to use each week. That money will then be distributed evenly to each game of the week. Stick with me, don't add/substract games, use my system and together we will beat the NFL point spread.

Please help! I want to know if you can help me determine which team will have the best record against the spread at the end of the regular season. Each week, you can put your vote HERE. It only takes a second, and if together we can determine early a conclusive winner, picking that team (or set of teams) might give us another great strategy. After your vote, you will see a link to view the results overall and by week. Thanks in advance.

As for point spread picks for week four, here are these week's system results:

Unofficial Pick 1: Seattle -1 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Unofficial Pick 2: Chicago +4 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Unofficial Pick 3: Houston -3 correct NFL point spread pick
Unofficial Pick 4: Cincinnati -3 incorrect NFL point spread pick

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
SEATTLE @ ST LOUIS14.13.960.0%
CHICAGO @ NY GIANTS-47.411.458.1%
HOUSTON @ OAKLAND39.96.956.0%
BALTIMORE @ PITTSBURGH-1.5-3.0-1.551.4%
DENVER @ TENNESSEE-6.5-2.14.650.0%
DETROIT @ GREEN BAY-14.5-20.6-6.148.6%
CAROLINA @ NEW ORLEANS-13.5-21.6-8.147.8%
NY JETS @ BUFFALO5.52.5-3.547.0%

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.


Unknown said…
I out foxed myself again. As reported here last week using a 60/40 data split my model picks were 1-3 with best bet home dog KC a winner.
If I had used 100% 2010 data my picks were 7-4, three of those winners qualifying as best bets.
Anyone else come across similar results from last week?

I’m still afraid to bet these, but using 2010 data only the model is giving me 8 plays. I know that’s a lot, but if I don’t post them here no one else will ever know. Using Jamie’s vegas line, as a warm-up for next week.

Best Bet…… Chi+4
DDW said…
Hey Jaime,

The first 3 weeks have been an eye opener for this 2010 season. My picks vs yours for this week are as follows:

SEA -1
CHI +4
OAK +3
CIN -3

The oakland pick seems odd to me and that's not the way my gut would bet, but that's what the numbers are pointing to. Houston's horrible pass defense is what keeps this game in Oakland close
Anonymous said…
An unusual set of picks for me. I (and, thus my model) never make 5 picks a week; I don't like road favorites and I think the total value is nearly always on the UNDER.

So how did I end up with these:

223 Bears +3.5
213 Jets -4.5
210 Falcons -6.5
225 Patriots -1 [Mon]
216 Colts/Jags OVER 46

The lines are from sometime Tuesday your time, I think.

Good luck on the week!
HappyBreathNet said…
I'm with you on three out of four, but I only consider the Houston game bettable. The game we differ on is the Cleveland game, I actually have Cleveland +3 (since my model has Cin winning by 1.8).

The games I'd bet this week are Philadelphia and San Diego to cover. This is the first week where I agree, by and large, with my system's picks. Hopefully that bodes well.

- Happy
Jaime said…
Almost all of us agree on the Chicago pick. If it goes well, we might want to look at where most of our picks agree and have a collective experts picks. What do you say?
DDW said…

I think it's a good idea. This bear's team has been impressive so far. I actually believe Chicago will win, but then again NYG are home and they are a very hot and cold team. The best of luck this weekend.

DDW said…
Another wild week in the NFL. I just noticed something with your picks that are at or below 50% confidence. Look at week 3 and week 4 and you will be as surprised as I was.
Jaime said…
I have always done terrible in the first 4 weeks. That's why I don't bet one cent on them.

DDW if that pattern continues throughout the season, I will have to dive into finding out why.