2010 NFL Point Spread Picks Week 8

Pick 1: Miami 0 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: St Louis -3 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: KC -7.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 4: Tennessee +3.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 5: Pittsburgh 0 incorrect NFL point spread pick

As we continue our slump this year, I keep reminding myself that this is a long-term strategy and not a get rich quick scheme. Yes, last year was nice because we started something like 9-2, but we fell. This year, the hopes are now that the great weeks are about to come.

This week, all home teams are favorites or its a straight pick (i.e. spread is zero). So, no home underdogs picks. I do like what I see in this week's picks. One thing that stood out to me was that the KC, TEN, and PIT games, the predicted spread is off by more than 10 points than the Vegas spread. Why do you think this is? Is NO overrated? KC being 5-1 ATS, are they still underrated against a weak Buffalo team? Detroit is favorite this week! I wonder when was the last time that happened. Being 5-1 ATS helps. Couple of games I would stay away is Dallas and Minnesota.

I continue my best effort to provide the best NFL spread picks data can answer and an optimal betting strategy to go along with it. Unfortunately, our bankroll has decreased 11% since we started so bumping the week's bankroll use to 20% leave us with approximately $360 for the week, $72 a game.

Once again, here are the NFLpickles free point spread estimates for Week 8 of 2010.











































































































GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
MIAMI @ CINCINNATI06.16.161.4%
CAROLINA @ ST LOUIS-3-18.9-15.959.0%
BUFFALO @ KANSAS CITY-7.5-21.4-13.958.3%
TENNESSEE @ SAN DIEGO-3.511.214.757.0%
PITTSBURGH @ NEW ORLEANS015.715.756.9%
HOUSTON @ INDIANAPOLIS-5.5-3.42.155.6%
MINNESOTA @ NEW ENGLAND-6-5.30.755.0%
JACKSONVILLE @ DALLAS-6.5-11.7-5.253.3%
TAMPA BAY @ ARIZONA-3-5.5-2.552.9%
GREEN BAY @ NY JETS-6-8.2-2.250.1%
SEATTLE @ OAKLAND-2.5-3.8-1.3 45.0%
WASHINGTON @ DETROIT-2.5-3.5-145.0%
SAN FRANCISCO - DENVER0-10.4-10.4off-London


How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.

12 comments:

George said...

Jaime, were pretty much on the same page this week. Good luck to you! The only play my sheet does not bring to light is Miami. Last week a long deserved 4-0 here. My sheet was 9-5 ATS overall. The highlighted plays, favorites 4-1, and dogs 3-0.
My picks for the week.
PITT +1
TBY +3
TEN +3.5
RAMS –3
Other highlighted plays.
KC -7.5
PATS –5.5

dtBy said...

I waited for you to post, George, so now I get to look like I am shadowing your picks, instead of the other way around. 2 out of 3!

Looks like full agreement so far on the Titans.

221 Titans +3.5
223 Buccs +3
218 Bengals -2

I'm not super-excited about the Bengals pick, but it just barely squeaked into qualification and with nothing else close, I'm going ahead and taking it.

Best of luck on everything (except Miami) this week, Jaime!

Jaime said...

So far, we all agree on PIT and TEN. Are these then the picks of the week? If one day we all put our heads together, then maybe. I should look into that and create a separate strategy because probably a couple of experts together is better than one.

We don't agree on the MIAMI pick. And KC could be good. Nothing on STL?

George said...

Truth be told, I do have CIN at 3.45 less the –1 line, or 2.45 pt. Side. However, just not strong enough to make my play list. But I did add a new factor “Defensive Passer Rating” to my sheet since your copy.

George said...

ps. Jaime, I too have the Rams.

dtBy said...

On the mentioned games where I didn't post a pick:

216 Rams -3
219 Bills +7.5

So, one each agree/disagree. But I don't feel strongly about these. In fact, the next best selection I had after the Bengals was:

212 Lions -2.5

But, as much as I love my Lions, I think the model might be overvaluing their home performance vs the Rams. Admittedly not so much that it drove them into "pick" territory or that I can spot the flaw... just a hunch.

Probable said...

My model only has one pick so far for the week (Dolphins +2), but I may add more as we get closer to Sunday...

George said...

dtBy said...
I would take the UNDER on the total again in a do-over situation!
18.23 PITTSB 23
23.76 MIAMI 22

Really, my projected score in that game was 23-18. Although crude, my method was 5-2 on totals last three weeks. I simply take the teams (total yards / 9.7) –10. Looking for differences of 9+. None even close this week, but as an example I have Den 24.73 to SF 20.36.

How do you guys project totals..?

dtBy said...

My total pick was actually on 49ers/Panthers... I don't know if this changes your opinion of the pick, but there ya go.

In any case, I use some of the same information I use to handicap the games to drive my total model. It it's heart it's a look at the Poisson distribution of expected per-side scoring totals.. with some vaguely secret sauce to tighten it up and give me reasonable probabilities.

Except that it's not working very well this year!

George said...

Yes dt, sorry I was confused.

Probable said...

With the Favre situation straightened out, my model has another pick for this week: Patriots -5.5

dtBy said...

Looks like the only one who made money was Probable.

That's a little disappointing, especially considering that I called 3 of 3 on my "non-plays!"