2010 NFL Point Spread Picks Week 10

Pick 1: Chicago +1 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Philadelphia -3 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: Pittsburgh -4.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 4: Tennessee -1 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 5: Baltimore +1 incorrect NFL point spread pick

This week we have 5 picks above the 57% threshold. For the first time, last week I made the exception to choose above 60 and lost two opportunities: TB and OAK. Never again. This week I personally don't like PIT or Baltimore and probably like Chicago 'cause I like the Bears. But this is what the model spita out, and believe it or not, I'm still confident we will come out winning this season.

Using 20% of bankroll for these week's picks, gives us $66/game. St. Louis came out strong underdog pick against SF, but given that both starting QBs are out, I will stay away from this game. Anything other significant injuries I may have missed?

Can you believe that Detroit is 8-1 and St. Louis is 6-2 ATS? Talking about picking a pony. To see current point spread standings click here.

Once again, here are the NFLpickles free point spread estimates for Week 10 of 2010.


















































































































GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
MINNESOTA @ CHICAGO1-6.5-7.563.4%
PHILADELPHIA @ WASHINGTON36.74.760.3%
NEW ENGLAND @ PITTSBURGH-4.5-7-2.558.0%
TENNESSEE @ MIAMI12.31.357.1%
BALTIMORE @ ATLANTA-11.32.357.1%
ST LOUIS @ SAN FRANCISCO-64.510.5NA
CINCINNATI @ INDIANAPOLIS-7-12.4-5.452.2%
DETROIT @ BUFFALO-3-4.5-1.552.2%
SEATTLE @ ARIZONA-37.110.151.1%
KANSAS CITY @ DENVER19.98.950.0%
CAROLINA @ TAMPA BAY-6.5-14.4-7.950.0%
DALLAS @ NY GIANTS-14-15.1-1,149.1%
NY JETS @ CLEVELAND33.90.948.7%
HOUSTON @ JACKSONVILLE-1.5-3-1.548.6%


How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.

16 comments:

Probable said...

Jaime,

Congrats on your Steelers pick Monday.

You and I overlap quite a bit (3 picks) this week. My model likes: Ravens +1, Bears +3, Colts -7, and Eagles -3

I may have another later in the week.

Last week's 1-1 performance brought me to 6-3-1 on the season.

Robert said...

Jaime, I was ready to give up for the season. Good thing I read the comments about the seahawks quarterback not playing and did not follow your seahawks pick. I picked the giants and got 2 out of 2 last week. Hopefully we dont miss any more injuries. Keep up the good work hopefully we'll end up ahead this season.

Zenki & Zulu said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Numbers said...

Hello, I have been following your site since last year. I enjoy reading your weekly picks and everyones comments. I figured I would start posting my picks as well.

Falcons(pick),Titans(-1.5),Bears(+3),Rams(+5),Eagles(-3.5)

Good Luck Everyone!

dtBy said...

A whole mess of picks this week. As for me, only 3, but my first double-unit pick of the year on Da Bears.

222 Chicago +1 [**]
228 Bucs/Panthers UNDER 35.5
223 Lions +3

Remember when you made those "Who'll be best ATS?" polls? I kept picking my Lions.. guess it wasn't just wishful thinking.

Good luck, every week.

dtBy said...

Also, Numbers, where'd you find Bears +3? Did you get a good opener or something?

Benjamin Mumma said...

Hey guys, my model initially spit out the following spread games:
Titans (-1.5)
Bears (+1)
Patriots (+5.5)
I cancelled the Lions (Stafford's status is questionable) and the Cowboys (new coach, and they suck) who were technically picked.

The Chiefs, Rams, and Seahawks are all very close to being picks, and may be depending on spread movements.

Ben

Probable said...

dtBy,

I know your question wasn't directed at me, but I also found Bears +3 last night. I choose lines from three sites: bodog, betdsi, and betus. Bears +3 was on betus at -110 last night.

George said...

Looks like I’ll be the first to break ranks, and go out on a limb. But my sheet disagrees with just about every pick posted. Jaime, my sheet highlights the opposite side of all your selections. Same with Probable, but for a smallish edge to INDY. And to my former shadow dtBy finally, some division. I strongly disagree with CHI and believe BUF gets a win and cover this week..............Last week a decent, 2-0-1, past 3 weeks 8-2-1. My sheet has highlighted way too many sides this week but these are the highest rated.

Falcons –1
Vikings –1
Texans +1
SEA-ARIZ under 41

Probable said...

Added Seahawks +3 to this week's picks.

Mike d. said...

Hey Jaime,

Miami will be starting Chad Pennington at QB this week, which might skew your Tennesee pick. I think short term, Pennington is an upgrade over Henne....long term, I don't know what the Dolphins are doing.

Jaime said...

Not a good start this week

Numbers said...

I got the Bears +3 Tuesday night at Betus. I am new on the online betting world for the most part and that is where I place my bets for now.

I have had some good luck with looking at the opening point and which way the public is betting and either taking it before it sinks or watching it climb...depending on which way I'm betting. I'm sure that is not news to you guys though.

George said...

Oh-My……… what a blunder. I should have known better when my sheet was opposite everyone else. I pasted a column of data in the wrong place. What a bone-head, I don’t deserve to be in the same company. My official plays were 2-2, if had posted correctly I would have been, 2-3. Last weeks correct plays were, Hou=L, Tenn=L, Chi=W, STL=W and the same under a capital L.

Joel said...

I think it is a terrible blunder for you to write off a strategy of only 60%+ picks...if you had followed that, unless I miscounted, you would be 5-2-1 since you started your "for real" picks, and nicely profitable. One week is never a reason to overreact, never! Granted, what I looked at from your data is almost anecdotal itself since that is a small sample of eight games, but if it holds up over time that the 60%+ picks truly exceed the 55%-60% picks, then the 55%-60% bets should be written off completely (even for a small time gambler, in my opinion).

Joel said...

My mistake, 5-3-1 after week 4. Really the picks have tread water all year, with the two wins week 10 (quite ironically contrasted with your fervent declaration going into the week lol) putting it positive

week 1: 2-0
week 2: 0-1
week 3: N/A
week 4: 0-1
week 5: 1-1
week 6: 1-0
week 7: 0-1
week 8: 1-0
week 9: 0-1-1
week 10: 2-0