2010 NFL Point Spread Picks Week 6

Pick 1: St. Louis +8.5 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Green Bay -3.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: Baltimore +3 PUSH

NFL Week 5 Point Spread Review
High scoring games and a slew of yardage ended up in many surprising upsets. New Orleans a 7 point favorite got beat in Arizona. Other two heavy underdogs Oakland and Tennessee came up with big wins. The Giants were the underdog team who won by the biggest differential. Unbelievably so, the Lions put up their best offensive performances in years and brought down the Rams (a pick this week).

My picks went 2-3 for a 4% loss on investment. The good news is that all picks together went 64%, so we are definitely still in the game. We just need to jump right back this week with huge wins. Setting this week's bankroll budget at 19%, for the 3 games ahead of us, we'll invest 1915*.19/3 = $121 per game.

NFL Week 6 Point Spread Predictions
Home underdogs are everyone's favorites, especially when the margin is high. I'm not a believer in generalizing a betting strategy simply like that, but this week I like St.Louis jumping back from their loss and maybe coming up with a victory. Green Bay can score some points at home and if its defense holds (hopefully Clay Mathews plays), they can keep Miami near its season average of 16pts/game. Baltimore is a difficult pick since New England is scoring TDs like crazy. But I have to stick with my guns and forget about what I think is right.

Other noticeable picks are: Detroit, Tennessee, and Cleveland. Once again, here are the NFLpickles free point spread estimates for Week 6 of 2010.

















































































































GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
SAN DIEGO @ ST LOUIS8.5-5.2-13.761.5%
MIAMI @ GREEN BAY-3.5-10.3-6.859.5%
BALTIMORE @ NEW ENGLAND-32.95.958.9%
CLEVELAND @ PITTSBURGH-13.5-8.94.656.0%
DETROIT @ NY GIANTS-10-6.43.655.0%
TENNESSEE @ JACKSONVILLE39.86.853.5%
DALLAS @ MINNESOTA-1.50.62.152.1%
NEW ORLEANS @ TAMPA BAY4.57.53.051.9%
SEATTLE @ CHICAGO-7-8.8-1.851.1%
INDIANAPOLIS @ WASHINGTON33.10.150.0%
ATLANTA @ PHILADELPHIA-33.26.250.0%
NY JETS @ DENVER34.11.150.0%
KANSAS CITY @ HOUSTON-4.5711.549.5%
OAKLAND @ SAN FRANCISCO-6.510.016.546.3%


How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.

6 comments:

dtBy said...

Not much to say on your picks. I didn't even consider any of them! I feel like I am missing out on so much living on the other side of the world. Not nearly enough highlights and news to help me make informed decisions.

Ah, well. 2-1 last week... I have a nebulous sense of dread about this week's picks, but I made them anyway.

216 Buccs +4.5
219 Lions +10
211 Chiefs +4.5
226 Steelers/Browns UNDER 37.5

Good luck! I know you've got another winning season in you!

Probable said...

Hi Jaime,

I've started a site dedicated to making statistically based picks at Probable Picks. I followed your site all last season and am excited to join the conversation. My first picks are up for this week here.

My model is pointing to the Jets -3, Rams +8.5, Colts -3 and Chiefs +4.5.

My model also points toward the Ravens, but doesn't reach the confidence threshold to make it an official pick.

Jaime said...

Nice Probable. I like it. Does this mean you are now my official competitor? jk If so, we should definitely exchange links on our blog roll.

Probable said...

Consider yourself linked.

I actually think our picks (your actual picks, and my backtest picks) tend complement each other. We don't have a lot of overlapping picks, which makes me think that we are approaching the problem from different angles. It also suggests that there are more misplaced lines than I would have guessed.

George said...

No congruent picks this week Jamie. Actually I have a slight lean towards New England. Take that as a good sign for your picks given my recent record a feeble 1-3. With some influence from dtBy I back tested my data keying on dogs and love the results.
My picks for the week.
KC +4.5
TB +4.5
AYL +3
Oak +6.5

DDW said...

Hey Jaime,

Let's hope we have a little more luck on our side this week. Here's my picks vs yours:

SD -8.5
GB -3.5
NE -3

My picks last week were horrible, anything can happen on any given sunday.