2010 NFL Point Spread Picks Week 15

Pick 1: Houston +1.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Kansas City +1.5 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: Detroit +6 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 4: Washington +6 correct NFL point spread pick

4 visiting underdogs this week. Again, the model is favoring visiting teams and coincidentally this week they are all underdogs. We got Houston, who in my opinion shouldn't even be underdogs against Tennessee. Did you see that comeback yesterday? Next we have KC. The Rams disappointed me last week. This is an important game for both teams, but KC is the stronger team. Detroit, now at the top of the ATS standings should give Tampa a scare. Lots of scoring will favor the Lions in this one. Finally, we have the Redskins. I don't like the Redskins and it seems that Dallas is playing relatively well since firing their head coach. But we have to stick to what we got, hopefully they keep it close as they did last week with Tampa.

Other notable picks include: Bears and Browns.

Again, using 25% of bankroll we designate approximately $115 to each game.

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
DENVER @ OAKLAND-6.5-9.5-354.8%
ATLANTA @ SEATTLE622.616.652.8%
BUFFALO @ MIAMI-5.5-7-1.552.0%
NY JETS @ PITTSBURGH-6-2.63.450.0%
NEW ORLEANS @ BALTIMORE-1.5-2.1-0.650.0%
GREEN BAY @ NEW ENGLAND-10.5-14-3.548.7%

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.


I closed up shop for the season, having gone 21-13-1 ATS, or 61.8%.

I don't like making picks after Week 14 because of motivational issues. But I did run my model, and its unofficial picks for the week are Bills +5, Steelers -6, and Eagles +2.

I'm surprised you're not taking the Bears against the Vikings.
Jaime said…
I do like the Bears. But I'm sticking with the 60% 'till the end. But don't they look great? Well except for last week.

Are you making official picks during the playoffs?
No, I'm done for the season. The problem I see is that if teams start to pull starters because of playoff position (either in or out), the data starts to get muddled, so I wouldn't trust it entering the playoffs. I've thought about filtering out data for teams with suspect motivation, but don't have anything in place to do that this year. It looked like every team was still playing hard last week, which is why I don't mind running the model again for unofficial picks this week. I might just keep running unofficial picks all through the playoffs for kicks. We'll see. In any case, I haven't even tried to backtest my system past Week 14 games.

Subjectively, I like the Bears there b/c T.Jackson didn't look good and he might not even play this weekend. Playing outdoors may favor the Bears too. Not sure if that CHI +1.5 line is really available outside of the Las Vegas Hilton though.
Anonymous said…
I stop officially picking at week 13, but that doesn't stop me from running the model and posting picks!

209 Cardinals +2.5
308 Colts -5.5
311 Browns +1
Jaime said…
Why are there motivational issues during the playoffs? With bonuses for the players after a Super Bowl win, I would expect everyone to be playing hard, no?
There are motivational issues leading into the playoffs. Teams that are no longer in the hunt may slack, and same with teams that have secured positions. That can screw up the data leading into playoffs.

Unofficially adding Browns +1.
Jaime said…

I understand that. I'm asking about the playoffs. Do you make picks during the playoffs?
Last minute unofficially adding Chiefs +3
No, I don't make picks in the playoffs (not yet, anyway). Do you not use data from the end of the regular season while making playoff picks?
Anonymous said…
For my part, I make picks during the playoffs, but I use idealized team models and don't expect much of an edge over the market.