2015 NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 16

Pick 1: San Francisco +10
Pick 2: Carolina -7
Pick 3: Kansas City -10.5
Pick 4: Arizona -4.5
Pick 5: Cincinnati +3.5

Finally! But looks like everyone cashed in last week. Apparently casinos took a bad hit on week 15, making all of us winners. So at least, I got some easy action. On to this week... SF under-valued, Carolina to continue its streak, KC to blow Cleveland away, Arizona at home and Denver to continue struggling.

We will continue betting close to 27% of bankroll split evenly across the 5 picks to give us a bet of $300 per game.

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
SAN FRANCISCO @ DETROIT	-10	-6.4	3.6	59.1%
CAROLINA @ ATLANTA	7	10.2	3.2	59.0%
CLEVELAND @ KANSAS CITY	-10.5	-15.5	-5.0	58.9%
GREEN BAY @ ARIZONA	-4.5	-6.7	-2.2	57.7%
CINCINNATI @ DENVER	-3.5	5.8	9.3	57.1%
NEW ENGLAND @ NY JETS	3	6.2	3.2	53.5%
JACKSONVILLE @ NEW ORLEANS	-3.5	-6.5	-3.0	52.7%
ST LOUIS @ SEATTLE	-13.5	-6.3	7.2	52.2%
DALLAS @ BUFFALO	-6	-6.4	-0.4	50.0%
INDIANAPOLIS @ MIAMI	-2.5	10.0	12.5	50.0%
PITTSBURGH @ BALTIMORE	10	6.0	-4.0	50.0%
CHICAGO @ TAMPA BAY	-3	-0.4	2.6	44.3%
WASHINGTON @ PHILADELPHIA	-3	-1.1	1.9	44.3%
NY GIANTS @ MINNESOTA	-5.5	-8.9	-3.4	40.0%
SAN DIEGO @ OAKLAND	-6	-1.4	4.6	38.5%
HOUSTON @ TENNESSEE	-4.5	10.0	14.5	35.0%

How to read the table:

• Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
• Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
• Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
• Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

2015 NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 15

Pick 1: St. Louis -2
Pick 2: Arizona -3
Pick 3: Green Bay -3

Ok the boat hopefully has hit bottom. You're definitely now better off doing the opposite. I of course need to keep believing and continue posting my picks. We'll continue running the models and making picks until the end of the season. Hopefully we have a good run during the playoffs were we place a higher percent of whatever is left of the bankroll at that point.

We will continue betting 27% of bankroll split evenly across the 3 picks to give us a bet of $400 per game.

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
TAMPA BAY @ ST LOUIS	-2	-4.6	-2.6	63.6%
ARIZONA @ PHILADELPHIA	3	6.0	3.0	58.1%
GREEN BAY @ OAKLAND	3	7.2	4.2	57.0%
DETROIT @ NEW ORLEANS	-3	-3.6	-0.6	56.0%
HOUSTON @ INDIANAPOLIS	3	1.2	-1.8	54.8%
MIAMI @ SAN DIEGO	-1.5	-6.0	-4.5	52.3%
NY JETS @ DALLAS	3	6.6	3.6	50.0%
CAROLINA @ NY GIANTS	5	8.9	3.9	50.0%
KANSAS CITY @ BALTIMORE	7.5	6.9	-0.6	50.0%
TENNESSEE @ NEW ENGLAND	-14	-19.2	-5.2	50.0%
BUFFALO @ WASHINGTON	0	3.8	3.8	50.0%
DENVER @ PITTSBURGH	-6	5.4	11.4	49.1%
ATLANTA @ JACKSONVILLE	-3	1.2	4.2	48.9%
CLEVELAND @ SEATTLE	-14.5	-15.0	-0.5	47.4%
CHICAGO @ MINNESOTA	-5.5	-10.6	-5.1	47.3%
CINCINNATI @ SAN FRANCISCO	4.5	17.3	12.8	NA

How to read the table:

• Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
• Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
• Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
• Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

2015 NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 14

Pick 1: Indianapolis +1
Pick 2: Denver -7
Pick 3: San Francisco +1.5
Pick 4: Cincinnati -3

The ship keeps on sinking and there seems to be no turning back. This week we scale it back to three hopefully solid picks. We are buying the half points on both the Denver and Carolina game if we need to. Will probably wait until right before kickoff to see if we can get it without having to buy the points. I'm actually glad all of you keep putting your picks on the comments, it helps with some last minute personal placements.

We will raise betting to 25% of bankroll split evenly across the 3 picks to give us a bet of $500 per game. But again, the failure of this year's analysis of NFL point spread would lead you to think you may put a bet on the opposite. I won't but I'm just saying.

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
INDIANAPOLIS @ JACKSONVILLE	-1	5.2	6.2	61.4%
OAKLAND @ DENVER	-7.5	-10.0	-2.5	58.2%
SAN FRANCISCO @ CLEVELAND	-1.5	2.8	4.3	57.8%
PITTSBURGH @ CINCINNATI	-3	-11.3	-8.3	57.5%
ATLANTA @ CAROLINA	-9	-13.1	-4.1	55.0%
SAN DIEGO @ KANSAS CITY	-10	-11.6	-1.6	54.0%
DALLAS @ GREEN BAY	-7.5	-8.4	-0.9	53.9%
TENNESSEE @ NY JETS	-7	-9.5	-2.5	53.2%
MINNESOTA @ ARIZONA	-9	-5.7	3.3	52.1%
WASHINGTON @ CHICAGO	-3.5	-3.0	0.5	50.0%
NEW ORLEANS @ TAMPA BAY	-3.5	1.0	4.5	50.0%
NEW ENGLAND @ HOUSTON	3.5	3.0	-0.5	50.0%
NY GIANTS @ MIAMI	1.5	1.5	0.0	50.0%
BUFFALO @ PHILADELPHIA	1	0.6	-0.4	50.0%
SEATTLE @ BALTIMORE	9	7.1	-1.9	48.5%
DETROIT @ ST LOUIS	1	-0.3	-1.3	48.7%

How to read the table:

• Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
• Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
• Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
• Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

2015 NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 13

Pick 1: Carolina-7
Pick 2: Chicago -7
Pick 3: Houston +3
Pick 4: Baltimore +4

How low can you go? I can't believe Arizona and Buffalo didn't cover. As soon as the Giants game started I was skeptical. Everything is easy in retrospect. My confidence is on the floor right now. All of you new visitors, you are better off betting the opposite of what I say. I'm really hoping for a good streak here, even if it's just two winning weeks, that's not too much to ask is it? Ok c'mon, if the Bears and Texans can turn it around so could I :)

We will continue betting 20% of bankroll split evenly across the 4 picks to give us a bet of $400 per game. Buyer beware, these NFL point spread picks aren't getting any better as the season progresses.

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
CAROLINA @ NEW ORLEANS	7	13.5	6.5	59.7%
SAN FRANCISCO @ CHICAGO	-7	-15.0	-8.0	59.0%
HOUSTON @ BUFFALO	-3	3.1	6.1	58.0%
BALTIMORE @ MIAMI	-4	4.8	8.8	57.4%
ARIZONA @ ST LOUIS	6	1.8	-4.2	53.1%
ATLANTA @ TAMPA BAY	-2	1.1	2.9	52.5%
CINCINNATI @ CLEVELAND	10	15.4	5.4	51.7%
DENVER @ SAN DIEGO	4.5	8.3	3.8	51.2%
KANSAS CITY @ OAKLAND	3	1.7	-1.3	50.0%
INDIANAPOLIS @ PITTSBURGH	-6.5	-0.1	6.4	50.0%
GREEN BAY @ DETROIT	3	2.8	-0.2	50.0%
PHILADELPHIA @ NEW ENGLAND	-9.5	-11.8	-2.3	50.0%
JACKSONVILLE @ TENNESSEE	-2.5	-0.8	1.7	50.4%
DALLAS @ WASHINGTON	-4.5	-8.1	-3.6	49.0%
SEATTLE @ MINNESOTA	0	-8.9	-8.9	49.0%
NY JETS @ NY GIANTS	2	2.0	0.0	NA

How to read the table:

• Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
• Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
• Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
• Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

2015 NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 12

Pick 1: Minnesota +1.5
Pick 2: NY Giants -3
Pick 3: Buffalo +6
Pick 4: Arizona -10
Pick 5: Carolina +1

As the struggles continues, this week we get 5 visiting teams with above threshold confidence. There are a few that worries me but if I take them out I put emotion into them. Probably Carolina should be removed given Romo but underdogs? I like that, plus I want a Turkey pick. All the others I could probably talk either way about how they 'look good' but until this turns around I'll just avoid the chat.

This week we'll bet 20% of bankroll split evenly across the 5 picks to give us a bet of $300 per game. Good luck everyone and happy Thanksgiving!

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
MINNESOTA @ ATLANTA	-1.5	5.4	6.9	61.4%
NY GIANTS @ WASHINGTON	3	8.1	5.1	60.6%
BUFFALO @ KANSAS CITY	-6	2.1	8.1	58.3%
ARIZONA @ SAN FRANCISCO	10	18.8	8.8	57.0%
CAROLINA @ DALLAS	1	14.2	13.2	56.2%
PITTSBURGH @ SEATTLE	-3.5	-2.6	0.9	55.4%
MIAMI @ NY JETS	-3.5	-14.0	-10.5	54.4%
CHICAGO @ GREEN BAY	-9	-11.5	-2.5	54.0%
NEW ORLEANS @ HOUSTON	-3	-4.3	-1.3	52.7%
PHILADELPHIA @ DETROIT	-1	0.4	1.4	50.0%
ST LOUIS @ CINCINNATI	-9	-5.0	4.0	50.0%
OAKLAND @ TENNESSEE	2	-1.9	-3.9	50.0%
NEW ENGLAND @ DENVER	3	10.3	7.3	50.0%
SAN DIEGO @ JACKSONVILLE	-4	-2.7	1.3	49.4%
TAMPA BAY @ INDIANAPOLIS	-3	-1.7	1.3	49.4%
BALTIMORE @ CLEVELAND	-3	5.9	8.9	48.7%

How to read the table:

• Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
• Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
• Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
• Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

2015 NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 11

Pick 1: St Louis +3 PUSH
Pick 2: New England -7 PUSH
Pick 3: San Francisco +12.5

This week we'll bet 20% of bankroll split evenly across the 3 picks to give us a bet of $500 per game.

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
ST LOUIS @ BALTIMORE	-3	4.3	7.3	62.4%
BUFFALO @ NEW ENGLAND	-7	-10.4	-3.4	59.0 %
SAN FRANCISCO @ SEATTLE	-12.5	-8.0	4.5	58.0%
TAMPA BAY @ PHILADELPHIA	-5.5	0.3	5.8	56.7%
TENNESSEE @ JACKSONVILLE	-3	-2.2	0.8	56.4%
DALLAS @ MIAMI	0	6.4	6.4	52.7%
KANSAS CITY @ SAN DIEGO	3	5.8	2.8	50.8%
OAKLAND @ DETROIT	2.5	0.3	-2.2	50.0%
GREEN BAY @ MINNESOTA	0	1.4	1.4	50.0%
INDIANAPOLIS @ ATLANTA	-6	1.1	7.1	50.0%
CINCINNATI @ ARIZONA	-4	-2.3	1.7	50.0%
WASHINGTON @ CAROLINA	-7	-10.3	-3.3	50.0%
NY JETS @ HOUSTON	2.5	-1.1	-3.6	49.4%
DENVER @ CHICAGO	-1	6.5	7.5	NA

How to read the table:

• Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
• Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
• Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
• Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

2015 NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 10

Pick 1: Carolina -5.5
Pick 2: Jacksonville +6
Pick 3: NY Jets -1.5
Pick 4: Green Bay -11.5

I don't know what to say anymore, flip a coin I guess. This is the worst year of my career and time is running out to turn this around. This week we have many of the best ATS performing teams as picks.

This week we'll bet 20% of bankroll split evenly across the 4 picks to give us a bet of $250 per game.

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
CAROLINA @ TENNESSEE	5.5	10.2	4.7	63.8%
JACKSONVILLE @ BALTIMORE	-6	-0.9	5.1	60.7%
BUFFALO @ NY JETS	-1.5	-7.8	-6.3	59.8%
DETROIT @ GREEN BAY	-11.5	-17.7	-6.2	57.1%
ARIZONA @ SEATTLE	-3	2.5	6.5	56.4%
NEW ENGLAND @ NY GIANTS	7.5	13.9	6.4	55.9%
MIAMI @ PHILADELPHIA	-6.5	-7.8	-1.3	54.3%
KANSAS CITY @ DENVER	-6.5	-9.4	-2.9	54.3%
HOUSTON @ CINCINNATI	-10.5	-6.2	4.3	54.2%
MINNESOTA @ OAKLAND	-3	1.4	4.4	47.6%
DALLAS @ TAMPA BAY	-1.5	-10.5	-9.0	40.0%
CLEVELAND @ PITTSBURGH	-4.5	-6.8	-2.3	38.9%
CHICAGO @ ST LOUIS	-7.5	-2.6	4.9	36.8%
NEW ORLEANS @ WASHINGTON	1	1.8	0.8	33.3%

How to read the table:

• Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
• Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
• Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
• Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

2015 NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 9

Pick 1: NY Jets -6
Pick 2: Minnesota -1.5
Pick 3: Atlanta -7
Pick 4: Philadelphia -3

This week all point spread picks are favorites. The model is preferring home and visiting favorites by a more wider margin than expected. Who knows, maybe these models will finally get it right this week...

Yes, you might be better off at doing the opposite of what I say. This being my lowest moment in my humble handicapping carrer, I will not give up. I will continue running my models and if I get lucky, maybe I turn this around and end up a bit above water before season ends.

This week we continue to bet 17% of bankroll split evenly across the 4 picks to give us a bet of $350 per game.

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
JACKSONVILLE @ NY JETS	-6	-16.0	-10.0	60.5%
ST LOUIS @ MINNESOTA	-1.5	-15.6	-14.1	60.4%
ATLANTA @ SAN FRANCISCO	7	14.1	7.1	58.0%
PHILADELPHIA @ DALLAS	3	13.3	10.3	57.0%
NY GIANTS @ TAMPA BAY	2.5	6.5	4.0	54.1%
DENVER @ INDIANAPOLIS	5	6.0	1.0	52.0%
CLEVELAND @ CINCINNATI	-11	-7.8	3.2	50.0%
TENNESSEE @ NEW ORLEANS	-9	-8.6	0.4	50.0%
WASHINGTON @ NEW ENGLAND	-14	-13.0	1.0	50.0%
CHICAGO @ SAN DIEGO	-4	-2.5	1.5	50.0%
GREEN BAY @ CAROLINA	3	-2.3	-5.3	49.7%
MIAMI @ BUFFALO	-3	-10.9	-7.9	49.7%
OAKLAND @ PITTSBURGH	-4.5	-6.5	-2.0	49.0%

How to read the table:

• Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
• Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
• Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
• Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

2015 NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 8

Pick 1: Atlanta -7
Pick 2: Cincinnati +1.5
Pick 3: Carolina -7

This is frustrating. Baltimore's blocked kick in the last 5 minutes saved us from complete embarrassment. Last week's 1-2 record could've also been better because PIT shouldn't have been a pick given Ben nor Vick were starting. It is time to turn things around. We are right in the middle of the season and there should be valuable data feeding these models.

Lots of picks this week yet none of them are underdogs. We got 2 home favorite picks (ATL, CAR) and a road team (CIN). We continue using 17% of bankroll split evenly across the 3 picks to give us a bet of $500 per game.

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
TAMPA BAY @ ATLANTA	-7	-15.6	-8.6	60.0%
CINCINNATI @ PITTSBURGH	-1.5	5.7	7.2	58.3%
INDIANAPOLIS @ CAROLINA	-7	-15.8	-8.8	57.3%
SAN DIEGO @ BALTIMORE	-3	-9.1	-6.1	56.1%
ARIZONA @ CLEVELAND	5.5	12.1	6.6	55.0%
KANSAS CITY @ DETROIT	5	2.5	-2.5	54.0%
SAN FRANCISCO @ ST LOUIS	-8.5	-13.9	-5.4	54.0%
MIAMI @ NEW ENGLAND	-8	-1.2	6.8	53.0%
NY JETS @ OAKLAND	2	5.8	3.8	50.3%
SEATTLE @ DALLAS	6	7.8	1.8	50.8%
MINNESOTA @ CHICAGO	1	8.3	7.3	50.0%
TENNESSEE @ HOUSTON	-4	-11.5	-7.5	50.0%
DETROIT @ KANSAS CITY	-5	-7.3	-2.3	50.0%
GREEN BAY @ DENVER	3.5	-5.5	-9.0	49.6%
NY GIANTS @ NEW ORLEANS	-3.5	-8.2	-4.7	48.8%

How to read the table:

• Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
• Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
• Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
• Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

2015 NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 7

Pick 1: Cleveland +6
Pick 2: Baltimore +9
Pick 3: Pittsburgh +3

Here we are almost half way through and the NFL picks are struggling to go above 50%. Now that the models have enough data, I hope the models get good data in and the picks make a good turnaround. My week 7 picks are actually not that great. Last year they went 1-3 and the year before that 2-2.

I don't like that much that the 3 picks are visiting teams, but I can't put emotions to this. I'm not sure if Big Ben is playing but I think this play is mostly against KC. This week we stay at 17% of the bankroll split evenly across the 3 NFL games, giving us a bet of $500 per game. As we do every week, the statistically-driven NFL point spread picks are show below, for free.

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
CLEVELAND @ ST LOUIS	-6	-3.5	2.5	68.0%
BALTIMORE @ ARIZONA	-9	-4.8	4.2	68.0%
PITTSBURGH @ KANSAS CITY	-3	5.5	8.5	58.3%
DALLAS @ NY GIANTS	-4	-4.8	-0.8	56.3%
SEATTLE @ SAN FRANCISCO	6	4.6	-1.4	55.0%
ATLANTA @ TENNESSEE	4.5	15.5	11.0	55.0%
OAKLAND @ SAN DIEGO	-4	-6.2	-2.2	54.4%
HOUSTON @ MIAMI	-4	-8.5	-4.5	52.6%
TAMPA BAY @ WASHINGTON	-3.5	-11.5	-8.0	51.2%
MINNESOTA @ DETROIT	3	3.0	0.0	50.0%
BUFFALO - JACKSONVILLE	5.5	7.8	2.3	50.0%
NY JETS @ NEW ENGLAND	-9	-7.7	1.3	50.0%
PHILADELPHIA @ CAROLINA	-3	5.9	8.9	50.0%
NEW ORLEANS @ INDIANAPOLIS	-5	-4.7	0.3	49.3%

How to read the table:

• Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
• Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
• Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
• Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

2015 NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 6

Pick 1: Minnesota -3.5
Pick 2: Atlanta -3
Pick 3: New England -8
Pick 4: Houston -1.5

Ok, 2 out of 3 ain't bad, but I'm really dying here for a perfect week to take me to green quickly. We'll get there, patience I tell myself.

I don't like that the model picked four favorites this week, but these teams seem to be under-valued. New England is probably going to go strong, again and continue its streak and the spread won't adjust until they're 10-0 and then they'll end up with above 17 point spreads. Minnesota is a risky bet although I liked that the data picked up without even know that Charles is out (which hopefully helps the Vikings). Atlanta is another team that's putting a lot of points and I don't see the Saints being able to keep up. Houston is probably just a bet against Jacksonville, that's an ugly game you probably don't want to watch.

This week we stay at 17% of the bankroll split evenly across the 4 NFL games, giving us a bet of $400 per game. Week 6 data-driven NFL point spread picks are below.

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
KANSAS CITY @ MINNESOTA	-3.5	-9.1	-5.6	60.6%
ATLANTA @ NEW ORLEANS	3	20.9	17.9	60.0%
NEW ENGLAND @ INDIANAPOLIS	8	19.8	11.8	58.2%
HOUSTON @ JACKSONVILLE	1.5	7	5.5	57.0%
BALTIMORE @ SAN FRANCISCO	2.5	7.2	4.7	56.5%
CAROLINA @ SEATTLE	-6.5	-4.5	2.0	54.2%
SAN DIEGO @ GREEN BAY	-10	-12.4	-2.4	52.7%
NY GIANTS @ PHILADELPHIA	-3.5	-5.7	-2.2	51.4%
MIAMI @ TENNESSEE	-2.5	-7.0	-4.5	50.0%
ARIZONA @ PITTSBURGH	3.5	12.7	9.2	50.0%
WASHINGTON @ NY JETS	-6	-4.2	1.8	50.0%
CINCINNATI @ BUFFALO	3.5	3.9	0.4	50.0%
DENVER @ CLEVELAND	5	4.9	-0.1	49.5%
CHICAGO @ DETROIT	-3	-0.3	2.7	49.2%

How to read the table:

• Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
• Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
• Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
• Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

2015 NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 5

Pick 1: Buffalo -2.5
Pick 2: Denver -5
Pick 3: Indianapolis +2
Pick 4: Cincinnati -3 PUSH

Another ugly week. We used to wait until week 5 to put official picks but I changed that last year. Probably a bad idea, but at least now hopeful the algorithm will catch up and start winning again. This week we're betting for 3 visiting team and a home team. Indianapolis will find a way to win that game, Denver's defense should help cover and Buffalo will come out swinging. Lynch is out and Cincinnati is killing it.

This week we raise the pool to 15% of the bankroll split evenly across the 3 NFL games, giving us a bet of $400 per game. Week 5 data-driven NFL point spread picks are below.

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
BUFFALO @ TENNESSEE	2.5	9.7	7.2	62.7%
DENVER @ OAKLAND	5	18.0	13.0	58.7%
INDIANAPOLIS @ HOUSTON	-2	3.2	5.2	59.0%
SEATTLE @ CINCINNATI	-3	-6.2	-3.2	57.0%
JACKSONVILLE @ TAMPA BAY	-3	3.3	6.3	56.0%
ARIZONA @ DETROIT	3	-0.4	-3.4	54.9%
ST LOUIS @ GREEN BAY	-9.5	-16.2	-6.7	51.4%
CHICAGO @ KANSAS CITY	-9	-7.3	1.7	51.2%
SAN FRANCISCO @ NY GIANTS	-7	-5.3	1.7	51.0%
WASHINGTON @ ATLANTA	-7.5	-4.8	2.7	50.0%
NEW ENGLAND @ DALLAS	9.5	5.3	-4.2	50.0%
CLEVELAND @ BALTIMORE	-6.5	-12.9	-6.4	50.0%
PITTSBURGH @ SAN DIEGO	-3.5	-0.8	2.7	49.8%
NEW ORLEANS @ PHILADELPHIA	-5	-7.4	-2.4	48.9%

How to read the table:

• Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
• Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
• Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
• Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

2015 NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 4

Pick 1: Arizona -7
Pick 2: Carolina -3.5
Pick 3: Denver -7

What an ugly week last one. This week we have more data for the teams this year and I also shifted more weight to 2015s games. bad picks against Arizona and the Packers. These two teams and New England should probably not be faded until the spread adjusts accordingly. This week we go with two 7 point home favorites and a visiting favorites. Chicago as a home dog almost made it, but even though they're playing Oakland I can't bet for my own Bears.

Arizona and Denver should cover at home. This week we continue betting 15% of the bankroll split evenly across the 3 NFL games, giving us a bet of $500 per game. week 4 data-driven NFL point spread picks are below.

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
ST LOUIS @ ARIZONA	-7	-10.3	-3.3	62.8%
CAROLINA @ TAMPA BAY	3.5	5.5	2.0	58.9%
MINNESOTA @ DENVER	-7	-12.2	-5.2	57.0%
OAKLAND @ CHICAGO	3	0.2	-2.8	56.3%
MIAMI - NY JETS	-2	1.7	3.7	54.0%
KANSAS CITY @ CINCINNATI	-4	1.9	5.9	54.0%
DETROIT @ SEATTLE	-10	-8.9	1.1	52.7%
PHILADELPHIA @ WASHINGTON	3.5	6,5	3.0	51.9%
HOUSTON @ ATLANTA	-7	-3	4	51.1%
GREEN BAY @ SAN FRANCISCO	9.5	6.5	-3.0	50.4%
JACKSONVILLE @ INDIANAPOLIS	-9	-12.5	-3.5	50.5%
NY GIANTS @ BUFFALO	-5.5	-10.7	-5.2	50.0%
CLEVELAND @ SAN DIEGO	-7.5	-9.0	-1.5	49.2%
DALLAS @ NEW ORLEANS	-4	4.5	8.5	NA
BALTIMORE @ PITTSBURGH	3	6.0	3.0	NA

How to read the table:

• Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
• Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
• Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
• Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

2015 NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 3

Pick 1: Kansas City +7
Pick 2: San Francisco +6.5
Pick 3: Denver -3.5
Pick 4: Indianapolis -3.5

It somewhat makes me uncomfortable to see 4 visiting teams as pick but if that's the way the algorithm works then let be it. I also don't feel comfortable betting against the Packers but Kansas City is also a good bet. Indianapolis has had a rough start and it's probably under valued because of that. Detroit doesn't look good and although Manning had points in the game that looked like his last days, he was able to make a heck of a comeback. Plus the Denver defense (which I just picked up in my fantasy league) can turn the game our way.

It is cool at least that two of the games are night games. This week we continue betting 15% of the bankroll split evenly across the 4 NFL games, giving us a bet of $375 per game. Below is week 3 NFL point spread predictions.

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
KANSAS CITY @ GREEN BAY	-7	-0.9	6.1	68.0%
SAN FRANCISCO @ ARIZONA	-6.5	-2.2	4.3	66.7%
DENVER @ DETROIT	3.5	8.4	4.9	58.6%
INDIANAPOLIS @ TENNESSEE	3.5	20.0	16.5	57.7%
CINCINNATI @ BALTIMORE	-2.5	3.0	5.5	55.6%
CHICAGO @ SEATTLE	-15	-17.9	-2.9	54.2%
JACKSONVILLE @ NEW ENGLAND	-14	-21.2	-7.2	53.5%
BUFFALO @ MIAMI	-3	2.0	5.0	52.7%
TAMPA BAY @ HOUSTON	-6.5	-8.3	-1.8	51.8%
NEW ORLEANS @ CAROLINA	-6.5	3.3	9.8	51.6%
WASHINGTON @ NY GIANTS	-3.5	-0.3	3.2	50.7%
OAKLAND @ CLEVELAND	-3.5	-2.7	0.8	50.5%
SAN DIEGO @ MINNESOTA	-2.5	-3	-0.5	50.0%
PITTSBURGH @ ST LOUIS	2	4.0	2.0	50.0%
PHILADELPHIA @ NY JETS	-3	6.4	9.4	49.2%
ATLANTA @ DALLAS	2	-12.7	-14.7	NA

How to read the table:

• Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
• Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
• Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
• Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.