2015 NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 12

Pick 1: Minnesota +1.5 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: NY Giants -3 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: Buffalo +6 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 4: Arizona -10 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 5: Carolina +1 correct NFL point spread pick

As the struggles continues, this week we get 5 visiting teams with above threshold confidence. There are a few that worries me but if I take them out I put emotion into them. Probably Carolina should be removed given Romo but underdogs? I like that, plus I want a Turkey pick. All the others I could probably talk either way about how they 'look good' but until this turns around I'll just avoid the chat.

This week we'll bet 20% of bankroll split evenly across the 5 picks to give us a bet of $300 per game. Good luck everyone and happy Thanksgiving!

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
MINNESOTA @ ATLANTA -1.5 5.4 6.9 61.4%
NY GIANTS @ WASHINGTON 3 8.1 5.1 60.6%
BUFFALO @ KANSAS CITY -6 2.1 8.1 58.3%
ARIZONA @ SAN FRANCISCO 10 18.8 8.8 57.0%
CAROLINA @ DALLAS 1 14.2 13.2 56.2%
PITTSBURGH @ SEATTLE -3.5 -2.6 0.9 55.4%
MIAMI @ NY JETS -3.5 -14.0 -10.5 54.4%
CHICAGO @ GREEN BAY -9 -11.5 -2.5 54.0%
NEW ORLEANS @ HOUSTON -3 -4.3 -1.3 52.7%
PHILADELPHIA @ DETROIT -1 0.4 1.4 50.0%
ST LOUIS @ CINCINNATI -9 -5.0 4.0 50.0%
OAKLAND @ TENNESSEE 2 -1.9 -3.9 50.0%
NEW ENGLAND @ DENVER 3 10.3 7.3 50.0%
SAN DIEGO @ JACKSONVILLE -4 -2.7 1.3 49.4%
TAMPA BAY @ INDIANAPOLIS -3 -1.7 1.3 49.4%
BALTIMORE @ CLEVELAND -3 5.9 8.9 48.7%

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

6 comments:

johnbart said...

Not a believer in you changing the number you picked STL at last week after the game but it's your site.

Here are my numbers on your picks this week:

MIN (+3.4)
NYG (-2.0)
BUF (+8.7)
ARI (-7.7)
CAR (-6.2)

Carolina is the lone standout.

fiftytwopointfour said...

Happy Thanksgiving, everyone! Here are fiftytwopointfour's top picks for the week after going 2-1 on them last week (and 8-4-1 overall):

> Panthers (+1.5)
> Bengals (-9)
> Cardinals (-10)

We overlap on 2 out of our 3 top picks, Jaime, so GO Panthers and Cardinals!

RealLine said...

Interesting week as far as picks go. Not a whole lot of fun looking picks but we're feeling ok with things after going 3-2-1 to get back on track last week.

TB (+3.0)
NYJ (-3.5)
JAC (-4.5)
KC (-5.5)

Proost!

paul lechiara said...

1pm picks ATS
HOU -3
MIN +2.5
CIN -9
IND -3
SDC +5

dbb57304-6ea1-11e5-a243-4fb58a4eec8f said...

Paul Lechiara: You're the man. You should start your own website.

paul lechiara said...

I'll try and post again this week. Thanks for the positive reply