Pick 2: Carolina -7
Pick 3: Kansas City -10.5
Pick 4: Arizona -4.5
Pick 5: Cincinnati +3.5
Finally! But looks like everyone cashed in last week. Apparently casinos took a bad hit on week 15, making all of us winners. So at least, I got some easy action. On to this week... SF under-valued, Carolina to continue its streak, KC to blow Cleveland away, Arizona at home and Denver to continue struggling.
We will continue betting close to 27% of bankroll split evenly across the 5 picks to give us a bet of $300 per game.
| Game | Vegas Line | Estimate | Prediction-Vegas | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SAN FRANCISCO @ DETROIT | -10 | -6.4 | 3.6 | 59.1% |
| CAROLINA @ ATLANTA | 7 | 10.2 | 3.2 | 59.0% |
| CLEVELAND @ KANSAS CITY | -10.5 | -15.5 | -5.0 | 58.9% |
| GREEN BAY @ ARIZONA | -4.5 | -6.7 | -2.2 | 57.7% |
| CINCINNATI @ DENVER | -3.5 | 5.8 | 9.3 | 57.1% |
| NEW ENGLAND @ NY JETS | 3 | 6.2 | 3.2 | 53.5% |
| JACKSONVILLE @ NEW ORLEANS | -3.5 | -6.5 | -3.0 | 52.7% |
| ST LOUIS @ SEATTLE | -13.5 | -6.3 | 7.2 | 52.2% |
| DALLAS @ BUFFALO | -6 | -6.4 | -0.4 | 50.0% |
| INDIANAPOLIS @ MIAMI | -2.5 | 10.0 | 12.5 | 50.0% |
| PITTSBURGH @ BALTIMORE | 10 | 6.0 | -4.0 | 50.0% |
| CHICAGO @ TAMPA BAY | -3 | -0.4 | 2.6 | 44.3% |
| WASHINGTON @ PHILADELPHIA | -3 | -1.1 | 1.9 | 44.3% |
| NY GIANTS @ MINNESOTA | -5.5 | -8.9 | -3.4 | 40.0% |
| SAN DIEGO @ OAKLAND | -6 | -1.4 | 4.6 | 38.5% |
| HOUSTON @ TENNESSEE | -4.5 | 10.0 | 14.5 | 35.0% |
How to read the table:
- Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
- Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
- Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
- Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.
11 comments:
If you guys bet the NBA (4-1) last night follow me on Twitter @NBA_COMPUTERMAN
For the NFL:
Cleveland +12.5
St. Louis +13.5
For XMAS we like Chicago +9.5 over OAK CITY.
I appreciate the comment but it's confusing to post NBA picks on a NFL site. Go Bulls!
Does anyone know why the KC vs CLE spread dropped two points? It's now 10.5 in most places from 12.5
Lot's of action in week 16 for us:
WAS (+3.0)
JAC (+3.0)
CLE (+11.0)
NYG (+6.0)
ATL (+7.0)
ARI (-4.5)
BAL (+10.0)
CAR@ATL (under 47.5)
Jaime we're on CLE because the number is too high. We put the line at +7.5.
Proost!
Here are fiftytwopointfour's picks for the week after going 2-2 last week.
> CHIEFS (-12)
> SEAHAWKS (-13.5)
> Ravens (+10)
> Jaguars (+3.5)
2016: 52% ATS, 56.9% Over/Under
Here are my 1pm picks ATS
CHI +3.5
CAR -6.5
KAN -11
HOU -4
Good luck to all!!!
I think there's an unwritten rule that if a bunch of money starts coming in on the Browns then it's not from the public. Sharps don't always win but they are usually better than a coin flip.
See nflpickbyme.com for simulation based NFL results.
Last week was 80% against the spread going 3-2 ATS and 5-0 on the Over/Under.
10 of 10 someday I'll be thirteenth here https://casinority.com/12-greatest-gamblers-who-beat-the-casino/
These guys are really good
Good luck to all!
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