2015 NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 16

Pick 1: San Francisco +10 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Carolina -7 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: Kansas City -10.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 4: Arizona -4.5 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 5: Cincinnati +3.5 correct NFL point spread pick

Finally! But looks like everyone cashed in last week. Apparently casinos took a bad hit on week 15, making all of us winners. So at least, I got some easy action. On to this week... SF under-valued, Carolina to continue its streak, KC to blow Cleveland away, Arizona at home and Denver to continue struggling.

We will continue betting close to 27% of bankroll split evenly across the 5 picks to give us a bet of $300 per game.

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
SAN FRANCISCO @ DETROIT -10 -6.4 3.6 59.1%
CAROLINA @ ATLANTA 7 10.2 3.2 59.0%
CLEVELAND @ KANSAS CITY -10.5 -15.5 -5.0 58.9%
GREEN BAY @ ARIZONA -4.5 -6.7 -2.2 57.7%
CINCINNATI @ DENVER -3.5 5.8 9.3 57.1%
NEW ENGLAND @ NY JETS 3 6.2 3.2 53.5%
JACKSONVILLE @ NEW ORLEANS -3.5 -6.5 -3.0 52.7%
ST LOUIS @ SEATTLE -13.5 -6.3 7.2 52.2%
DALLAS @ BUFFALO -6 -6.4 -0.4 50.0%
INDIANAPOLIS @ MIAMI -2.5 10.0 12.5 50.0%
PITTSBURGH @ BALTIMORE 10 6.0 -4.0 50.0%
CHICAGO @ TAMPA BAY -3 -0.4 2.6 44.3%
WASHINGTON @ PHILADELPHIA -3 -1.1 1.9 44.3%
NY GIANTS @ MINNESOTA -5.5 -8.9 -3.4 40.0%
SAN DIEGO @ OAKLAND -6 -1.4 4.6 38.5%
HOUSTON @ TENNESSEE -4.5 10.0 14.5 35.0%

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

11 comments:

NBAComputerMan said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
NBAComputerMan said...

If you guys bet the NBA (4-1) last night follow me on Twitter @NBA_COMPUTERMAN

For the NFL:
Cleveland +12.5
St. Louis +13.5

NBAComputerMan said...

For XMAS we like Chicago +9.5 over OAK CITY.

Jaime Brugueras said...

I appreciate the comment but it's confusing to post NBA picks on a NFL site. Go Bulls!

Jaime Brugueras said...

Does anyone know why the KC vs CLE spread dropped two points? It's now 10.5 in most places from 12.5

RealLine said...

Lot's of action in week 16 for us:

WAS (+3.0)
JAC (+3.0)
CLE (+11.0)
NYG (+6.0)
ATL (+7.0)
ARI (-4.5)
BAL (+10.0)

CAR@ATL (under 47.5)

Jaime we're on CLE because the number is too high. We put the line at +7.5.

Proost!

fiftytwopointfour said...

Here are fiftytwopointfour's picks for the week after going 2-2 last week.

> CHIEFS (-12)
> SEAHAWKS (-13.5)
> Ravens (+10)
> Jaguars (+3.5)

2016: 52% ATS, 56.9% Over/Under

paul lechiara said...

Here are my 1pm picks ATS
CHI +3.5
CAR -6.5
KAN -11
HOU -4
Good luck to all!!!

johnbart said...

I think there's an unwritten rule that if a bunch of money starts coming in on the Browns then it's not from the public. Sharps don't always win but they are usually better than a coin flip.

John Mullrooney said...

See nflpickbyme.com for simulation based NFL results.

Last week was 80% against the spread going 3-2 ATS and 5-0 on the Over/Under.

Alicia Burton said...

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Good luck to all!