2015 NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 14

Pick 1: Indianapolis +1 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Denver -7 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: San Francisco +1.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 4: Cincinnati -3 incorrect NFL point spread pick

The ship keeps on sinking and there seems to be no turning back. This week we scale it back to three hopefully solid picks. We are buying the half points on both the Denver and Carolina game if we need to. Will probably wait until right before kickoff to see if we can get it without having to buy the points. I'm actually glad all of you keep putting your picks on the comments, it helps with some last minute personal placements.

We will raise betting to 25% of bankroll split evenly across the 3 picks to give us a bet of $500 per game. But again, the failure of this year's analysis of NFL point spread would lead you to think you may put a bet on the opposite. I won't but I'm just saying.

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
INDIANAPOLIS @ JACKSONVILLE -1 5.2 6.2 61.4%
OAKLAND @ DENVER -7.5 -10.0 -2.5 58.2%
SAN FRANCISCO @ CLEVELAND -1.5 2.8 4.3 57.8%
PITTSBURGH @ CINCINNATI -3 -11.3 -8.3 57.5%
ATLANTA @ CAROLINA -9 -13.1 -4.1 55.0%
SAN DIEGO @ KANSAS CITY -10 -11.6 -1.6 54.0%
DALLAS @ GREEN BAY -7.5 -8.4 -0.9 53.9%
TENNESSEE @ NY JETS -7 -9.5 -2.5 53.2%
MINNESOTA @ ARIZONA -9 -5.7 3.3 52.1%
WASHINGTON @ CHICAGO -3.5 -3.0 0.5 50.0%
NEW ORLEANS @ TAMPA BAY -3.5 1.0 4.5 50.0%
NEW ENGLAND @ HOUSTON 3.5 3.0 -0.5 50.0%
NY GIANTS @ MIAMI 1.5 1.5 0.0 50.0%
BUFFALO @ PHILADELPHIA 1 0.6 -0.4 50.0%
SEATTLE @ BALTIMORE 9 7.1 -1.9 48.5%
DETROIT @ ST LOUIS 1 -0.3 -1.3 48.7%

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

4 comments:

John Mullrooney said...

Arizona 28 Minnesota 11
Carolina 29 Atlanta 21
Chicago 21 Washington 18
Cincinnati 28 Pittsburgh 23
Cleveland 20 San Francisco 18
Jacksonville 28 Indianapolis 22
Kansas City 39 San Diego 19
NY Jets 28 Tennessee 17
Philadelphia 24 Buffalo 24
St. Louis 22 Detroit 21
Tampa Bay 28 New Orleans 29
Baltimore 16 Seattle 22
Denver 26 Oakland 22
Green Bay 24 Dallas 11
Houston 21 New England 26
Miami 21 NY Giants 29

Here are my scores.

Recommended picks are: KC, AZ, NYG, GB, Jack

fiftytwopointfour said...

Here are fiftytwopointfour's picks for the week after going a tough 0-3 last week. In recent weeks my model has been picking large favorites and this does not seem to be the season for large favorites to cover. Either way, in the model we trust.

> CHIEFS (-10)
> PANTHERS (-7.5)
> BUCS (-3.5)

Good luck, everyone!

RealLine said...

A quiet week for us again. Just two picks:


TB (-4.5)
GB (-6.5)

Proost!

paul lechiara said...

Here are my 1pm picks ATS
CIN -2.5
SFO +2
KAN -11
IND +2.5
NYJ -7
Good luck to all!!!