2015 NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 6

Pick 1: Minnesota -3.5 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Atlanta -3 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: New England -8 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 4: Houston -1.5 correct NFL point spread pick

Ok, 2 out of 3 ain't bad, but I'm really dying here for a perfect week to take me to green quickly. We'll get there, patience I tell myself.

I don't like that the model picked four favorites this week, but these teams seem to be under-valued. New England is probably going to go strong, again and continue its streak and the spread won't adjust until they're 10-0 and then they'll end up with above 17 point spreads. Minnesota is a risky bet although I liked that the data picked up without even know that Charles is out (which hopefully helps the Vikings). Atlanta is another team that's putting a lot of points and I don't see the Saints being able to keep up. Houston is probably just a bet against Jacksonville, that's an ugly game you probably don't want to watch.

This week we stay at 17% of the bankroll split evenly across the 4 NFL games, giving us a bet of $400 per game. Week 6 data-driven NFL point spread picks are below.

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
KANSAS CITY @ MINNESOTA -3.5 -9.1 -5.6 60.6%
ATLANTA @ NEW ORLEANS 3 20.9 17.9 60.0%
NEW ENGLAND @ INDIANAPOLIS 8 19.8 11.8 58.2%
HOUSTON @ JACKSONVILLE 1.5 7 5.5 57.0%
BALTIMORE @ SAN FRANCISCO 2.5 7.2 4.7 56.5%
CAROLINA @ SEATTLE -6.5 -4.5 2.0 54.2%
SAN DIEGO @ GREEN BAY -10 -12.4 -2.4 52.7%
NY GIANTS @ PHILADELPHIA -3.5 -5.7 -2.2 51.4%
MIAMI @ TENNESSEE -2.5 -7.0 -4.5 50.0%
ARIZONA @ PITTSBURGH 3.5 12.7 9.2 50.0%
WASHINGTON @ NY JETS -6 -4.2 1.8 50.0%
CINCINNATI @ BUFFALO 3.5 3.9 0.4 50.0%
DENVER @ CLEVELAND 5 4.9 -0.1 49.5%
CHICAGO @ DETROIT -3 -0.3 2.7 49.2%

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

14 comments:

fiftytwopointfour said...

Good week 5, Jaime. I'd take your 2-1 winning record - my 2 best picks went 0-1-1 last week.
:/

Onto week 6! Fiftytwopointfour's Top 3 picks are:
> Patriots (-7.5) <-- this is in the Top 3 only if Andrew Luck has to sit out the game
> Jaguars (pk)
> Titans (-2.5)

And here is our insurance pick in case Andrew Luck starts the Pats/Colts game, knocking the Patriots out of the Top 3:
> Packers (-10)

johnbart said...

Here are my numbers on this week's picks:

MIN (-5.5)
ATL (-3.6)
NE (-8.7)
HOU (PK)

I like the MIN pick and mostly neutral on the rest math wise. The ATL pick has some questions about the health of Julio Jones. The NE@IND game is a bit of a cluster with the deflategate stuff but I would probably lean NE because of that. HOU is still a messed up team IMHO and I wouldn't touch them but that's just me :)

TotalBS said...

I Have written a system that downloads every play of each NFL game into a playbyplay database. I analyze what happened on each play and assign ratings based on the outcomes. Here are the plays for the week.

****************
Week 6 TOP Plays
****************
TEN -2.5
WAS +6
BUF +3.5 (Only with Taylor playing)
ARZ -3
JAX +1.5

paul phyfer said...

What is your record this far this season? Just curious. I love that you are using alternate forms of data.

TotalBS said...

Hi Paul, you can see my thread weekly here... http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/nfl-betting/3147493-picks-using-play-play-analysis-2015-season-long-thread.html

Big Tank said...

I'm not very fond of the numbers this week, but here are my picks:

ATL: -3.5 X
NE: -9
GB: -10
AZ: 3.5

I wasn't very confident about the ATL pick. Sure enough that game was doomed from the beginning. Good luck to us this week 6. Happy betting!

RealLine said...

A very light week for us. Combination of having four teams off on a bye and some key injuries making us stay off a couple of games.

NYJ (-6.5)
CLE (+4.0)

BUF is also looking decent by the numbers but with a backup QB starting we're off of that one. As a fan of the game I personally am excited to watch CAR@SEA and NE@IND. Should be some fun games.

RealLine said...

Some fun football games to watch this week. I have to join the chorus of people questioning the amount of career left in Peyton Manning's arm. Imagine how good the Broncos could be with that D and someone like Russell Wilson. I'm happy that it allowed the Browns to stay in the game and cover but it's not the type of play he should be remembered for.

A quiet 2-0 week for us to bounce back from the ugliness of last week. Best of luck in week 7.

Jaime Brugueras said...

That useless IND touchdown cost me the winning week. Don't understand why teams don't try to get first downs and run the clock out vs running the ball three times to then punt. Finish them!

Raju Korotana said...

I would suspect that they too know the spread and though it may not be intentional it is always in the back of their minds. I am sure the sports books cleaned house on IND covering last night.

johnbart said...

The swing on that late TD was probably massive for the books. So much public money on NE in that game.

This is part of what makes betting on football so fun and frustrating at the same time. A play that means nothing on the field can turn a whole betting week around. This is why it's a bit easier to bet college football since there are reasons to keep playing to score until the bitter end thanks to polls. It's also why I always feel better betting on a dog.

fiftytwopointfour said...

"Don't understand why teams don't try to get first downs and run the clock out vs running the ball three times to then punt. Finish them!"

Agreed ... like the Bears sitting on a 31-27 lead with the ball with 2:42 remaining. Three runs led to a punt led to a loss.

johnbart said...

How many of you actually watch games that you pick live? That seems like the perfect way to go insane.

I stopped doing that a few years back and my sanity and handicapping have been helped a lot. The less emotional you get about this game the more you can take a clear analytical view. It also makes the game way more fun :)

Jaime Brugueras said...

If it's Sunday or Monday night I may watch it. I think it's better than looking at my phone every 10 minutes. Day games are out for me as I usually have non professional sport activities.