2015 NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 6
Pick 1: Minnesota -3.5
Pick 2: Atlanta -3
Pick 3: New England -8
Pick 4: Houston -1.5
Ok, 2 out of 3 ain't bad, but I'm really dying here for a perfect week to take me to green quickly. We'll get there, patience I tell myself.
I don't like that the model picked four favorites this week, but these teams seem to be under-valued. New England is probably going to go strong, again and continue its streak and the spread won't adjust until they're 10-0 and then they'll end up with above 17 point spreads. Minnesota is a risky bet although I liked that the data picked up without even know that Charles is out (which hopefully helps the Vikings). Atlanta is another team that's putting a lot of points and I don't see the Saints being able to keep up. Houston is probably just a bet against Jacksonville, that's an ugly game you probably don't want to watch.
This week we stay at 17% of the bankroll split evenly across the 4 NFL games, giving us a bet of $400 per game. Week 6 data-driven NFL point spread picks are below.
How to read the table:
Pick 2: Atlanta -3
Pick 3: New England -8
Pick 4: Houston -1.5
Ok, 2 out of 3 ain't bad, but I'm really dying here for a perfect week to take me to green quickly. We'll get there, patience I tell myself.
I don't like that the model picked four favorites this week, but these teams seem to be under-valued. New England is probably going to go strong, again and continue its streak and the spread won't adjust until they're 10-0 and then they'll end up with above 17 point spreads. Minnesota is a risky bet although I liked that the data picked up without even know that Charles is out (which hopefully helps the Vikings). Atlanta is another team that's putting a lot of points and I don't see the Saints being able to keep up. Houston is probably just a bet against Jacksonville, that's an ugly game you probably don't want to watch.
This week we stay at 17% of the bankroll split evenly across the 4 NFL games, giving us a bet of $400 per game. Week 6 data-driven NFL point spread picks are below.
Game | Vegas Line | Estimate | Prediction-Vegas | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|---|
KANSAS CITY @ MINNESOTA | -3.5 | -9.1 | -5.6 | 60.6% |
ATLANTA @ NEW ORLEANS | 3 | 20.9 | 17.9 | 60.0% |
NEW ENGLAND @ INDIANAPOLIS | 8 | 19.8 | 11.8 | 58.2% |
HOUSTON @ JACKSONVILLE | 1.5 | 7 | 5.5 | 57.0% |
BALTIMORE @ SAN FRANCISCO | 2.5 | 7.2 | 4.7 | 56.5% |
CAROLINA @ SEATTLE | -6.5 | -4.5 | 2.0 | 54.2% |
SAN DIEGO @ GREEN BAY | -10 | -12.4 | -2.4 | 52.7% |
NY GIANTS @ PHILADELPHIA | -3.5 | -5.7 | -2.2 | 51.4% |
MIAMI @ TENNESSEE | -2.5 | -7.0 | -4.5 | 50.0% |
ARIZONA @ PITTSBURGH | 3.5 | 12.7 | 9.2 | 50.0% |
WASHINGTON @ NY JETS | -6 | -4.2 | 1.8 | 50.0% |
CINCINNATI @ BUFFALO | 3.5 | 3.9 | 0.4 | 50.0% |
DENVER @ CLEVELAND | 5 | 4.9 | -0.1 | 49.5% |
CHICAGO @ DETROIT | -3 | -0.3 | 2.7 | 49.2% |
How to read the table:
- Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
- Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
- Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
- Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.
Comments
:/
Onto week 6! Fiftytwopointfour's Top 3 picks are:
> Patriots (-7.5) <-- this is in the Top 3 only if Andrew Luck has to sit out the game
> Jaguars (pk)
> Titans (-2.5)
And here is our insurance pick in case Andrew Luck starts the Pats/Colts game, knocking the Patriots out of the Top 3:
> Packers (-10)
MIN (-5.5)
ATL (-3.6)
NE (-8.7)
HOU (PK)
I like the MIN pick and mostly neutral on the rest math wise. The ATL pick has some questions about the health of Julio Jones. The NE@IND game is a bit of a cluster with the deflategate stuff but I would probably lean NE because of that. HOU is still a messed up team IMHO and I wouldn't touch them but that's just me :)
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Week 6 TOP Plays
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TEN -2.5
WAS +6
BUF +3.5 (Only with Taylor playing)
ARZ -3
JAX +1.5
ATL: -3.5 X
NE: -9
GB: -10
AZ: 3.5
I wasn't very confident about the ATL pick. Sure enough that game was doomed from the beginning. Good luck to us this week 6. Happy betting!
NYJ (-6.5)
CLE (+4.0)
BUF is also looking decent by the numbers but with a backup QB starting we're off of that one. As a fan of the game I personally am excited to watch CAR@SEA and NE@IND. Should be some fun games.
A quiet 2-0 week for us to bounce back from the ugliness of last week. Best of luck in week 7.
This is part of what makes betting on football so fun and frustrating at the same time. A play that means nothing on the field can turn a whole betting week around. This is why it's a bit easier to bet college football since there are reasons to keep playing to score until the bitter end thanks to polls. It's also why I always feel better betting on a dog.
Agreed ... like the Bears sitting on a 31-27 lead with the ball with 2:42 remaining. Three runs led to a punt led to a loss.
I stopped doing that a few years back and my sanity and handicapping have been helped a lot. The less emotional you get about this game the more you can take a clear analytical view. It also makes the game way more fun :)