2015 NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 4

Pick 1: Arizona -7 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Carolina -3.5 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: Denver -7 incorrect NFL point spread pick

What an ugly week last one. This week we have more data for the teams this year and I also shifted more weight to 2015s games. bad picks against Arizona and the Packers. These two teams and New England should probably not be faded until the spread adjusts accordingly. This week we go with two 7 point home favorites and a visiting favorites. Chicago as a home dog almost made it, but even though they're playing Oakland I can't bet for my own Bears.

Arizona and Denver should cover at home. This week we continue betting 15% of the bankroll split evenly across the 3 NFL games, giving us a bet of $500 per game. week 4 data-driven NFL point spread picks are below.

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
ST LOUIS @ ARIZONA -7 -10.3 -3.3 62.8%
CAROLINA @ TAMPA BAY 3.5 5.5 2.0 58.9%
MINNESOTA @ DENVER -7 -12.2 -5.2 57.0%
OAKLAND @ CHICAGO 3 0.2 -2.8 56.3%
MIAMI - NY JETS -2 1.7 3.7 54.0%
KANSAS CITY @ CINCINNATI -4 1.9 5.9 54.0%
DETROIT @ SEATTLE -10 -8.9 1.1 52.7%
HOUSTON @ ATLANTA -7 -3 4 51.1%
GREEN BAY @ SAN FRANCISCO 9.5 6.5 -3.0 50.4%
NY GIANTS @ BUFFALO -5.5 -10.7 -5.2 50.0%
CLEVELAND @ SAN DIEGO -7.5 -9.0 -1.5 49.2%

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.


johnbart said…
Still plenty of season left for big winning streaks. Here are my numbers on the picked games:

ARI (-5.5)
CAR (-4.9)
DEN (-5.3)

On the same side on the CAR pick, not as much on the other two.
Anonymous said…
Hi Jaime, I didn't know you were a Bears fan. I'm another one. What a season. At least we have these picks to keep our fall weekends interesting.

My model's top 3 picks went 3-0 for the second week in a row (cool), yet the rest of the games went 4-9 (ew). And my undefeated streak will end this week, as I had the Steelers last night.

Fiftytwopointfour's top 3 picks this week.
- Steelers +2.5 <-- I stand by this pick even though it lost by half a point!
- Raiders -3
- Bengals -4

Good luck!
Jaime said…
I'm a Bears fan but a Cutler hater from the beginning. He acts selfish and like a little immature kid. Until they trade him, I'm not supporting the Bears.

Having said that, I think they'll figure out how to score and their defense should hold Oakland. We'll see, I'm staying away from that game. Good luck.
Jaime said…
Thanks John. What are your lock picks?
johnbart said…
Locks are for touts. Those of us who are realistic know the truth :)

This is the week of the big road dog. My numbers like STL as the "best" pick but if ARI isn't the scariest team to bet against right now I don't know who is.

RealLine said…
I have to side with johnbart this week that road underdogs are popular. Most handicappers end up making a living on underdogs and we're no different. We have the following Sunday sides:

HOU (+6.0)
JAC (+7.5)
CLE (+7.0)
STL (+7.0)

These are the kind of picks that can make you look silly but you still need to make them. JAC@IND line should be interesting in the morning depending on what happens with Luck starting.
Jaime said…
With Foster returning I like HOU. Cleveland should be solid, but I'm not betting against Arizona.
RealLine said…
The good thing about having HOU go down 42-0 after 3 quarters is that I didn't even have to pay attention to the game. :) That was definitely one of those picks that can make you look silly. We will be staying off of HOU until they figure out exactly what is going on there.

No pick on the Monday night game as the Vegas line looks spot on so a 3-1 week for us and looking ahead to week 5.