2015 NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 13

Pick 1: Carolina-7 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Chicago -7 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: Houston +3 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 4: Baltimore +4 correct NFL point spread pick

How low can you go? I can't believe Arizona and Buffalo didn't cover. As soon as the Giants game started I was skeptical. Everything is easy in retrospect. My confidence is on the floor right now. All of you new visitors, you are better off betting the opposite of what I say. I'm really hoping for a good streak here, even if it's just two winning weeks, that's not too much to ask is it? Ok c'mon, if the Bears and Texans can turn it around so could I :)

We will continue betting 20% of bankroll split evenly across the 4 picks to give us a bet of $400 per game. Buyer beware, these NFL point spread picks aren't getting any better as the season progresses.

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
CAROLINA @ NEW ORLEANS 7 13.5 6.5 59.7%
SAN FRANCISCO @ CHICAGO -7 -15.0 -8.0 59.0%
HOUSTON @ BUFFALO -3 3.1 6.1 58.0%
BALTIMORE @ MIAMI -4 4.8 8.8 57.4%
ARIZONA @ ST LOUIS 6 1.8 -4.2 53.1%
ATLANTA @ TAMPA BAY -2 1.1 2.9 52.5%
CINCINNATI @ CLEVELAND 10 15.4 5.4 51.7%
DENVER @ SAN DIEGO 4.5 8.3 3.8 51.2%
KANSAS CITY @ OAKLAND 3 1.7 -1.3 50.0%
INDIANAPOLIS @ PITTSBURGH -6.5 -0.1 6.4 50.0%
GREEN BAY @ DETROIT 3 2.8 -0.2 50.0%
PHILADELPHIA @ NEW ENGLAND -9.5 -11.8 -2.3 50.0%
JACKSONVILLE @ TENNESSEE -2.5 -0.8 1.7 50.4%
DALLAS @ WASHINGTON -4.5 -8.1 -3.6 49.0%
SEATTLE @ MINNESOTA 0 -8.9 -8.9 49.0%
NY JETS @ NY GIANTS 2 2.0 0.0 NA

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

9 comments:

Don Verlench said...

I am doing pretty good in my confidence pool by taking the absolute value of your 'estimate' and then sorting from highest to lowest. In the last 3 weeks I have finished 2nd twice and would of came in third last week had I not realized that Carolina was not favorite.

fiftytwopointfour said...

Keep the faith, Jaime. That's football.

Here are fiftytwopointfour's top picks for the week, after going 2-1 last week:
> BEARS (-7)
> Panthers (-7)
> PATRIOTS/Eagles (UNDER 49)

Paul Lechiara: great week 12! Do you use statistical analysis or your gut to make your picks?

paul lechiara said...

I use stats from various websites and try to keep any emotions out when picking. I eliminate games that are too close to call and try to keep my picks to 5 or less. This has been one of the hardest seasons for nfl but I've managed to trust my system. I am a numbers guy and enjoy beating the spread. Good luck to all and looks for my picks on Sunday morning.

RealLine said...

After a blah 2-2 week last week we're back with a few dog picks this week:

HOU (+3.5)
BAL (+3.5)
CLE (+9.5)

Proost!

Jaime Brugueras said...

I'm glad someone is getting value from all this effort. Thanks Don!

Jaime Brugueras said...

Glad we coincide in two of the picks. Cleveland is a stay away for me.

paul lechiara said...

Here's my 1pm picks ATS...
CIN -8
BAL +4
ARI -4.5
Good Luck to all

paul lechiara said...

4pm picks ats
CAR -7
KC -3
NEP -9
good luck to all

dbb57304-6ea1-11e5-a243-4fb58a4eec8f said...

Great job again Paul Lechiara. Carolina was a good pick despite the loss there. Sometimes the breaks just don't go your away in a given game. 4-2 is still a very good week!