2015 NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 5

Pick 1: Buffalo -2.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Denver -5 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: Indianapolis +2 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 4: Cincinnati -3 PUSH

Another ugly week. We used to wait until week 5 to put official picks but I changed that last year. Probably a bad idea, but at least now hopeful the algorithm will catch up and start winning again. This week we're betting for 3 visiting team and a home team. Indianapolis will find a way to win that game, Denver's defense should help cover and Buffalo will come out swinging. Lynch is out and Cincinnati is killing it.

This week we raise the pool to 15% of the bankroll split evenly across the 3 NFL games, giving us a bet of $400 per game. Week 5 data-driven NFL point spread picks are below.

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
BUFFALO @ TENNESSEE 2.5 9.7 7.2 62.7%
DENVER @ OAKLAND 5 18.0 13.0 58.7%
INDIANAPOLIS @ HOUSTON -2 3.2 5.2 59.0%
SEATTLE @ CINCINNATI -3 -6.2 -3.2 57.0%
JACKSONVILLE @ TAMPA BAY -3 3.3 6.3 56.0%
ARIZONA @ DETROIT 3 -0.4 -3.4 54.9%
ST LOUIS @ GREEN BAY -9.5 -16.2 -6.7 51.4%
CHICAGO @ KANSAS CITY -9 -7.3 1.7 51.2%
SAN FRANCISCO @ NY GIANTS -7 -5.3 1.7 51.0%
WASHINGTON @ ATLANTA -7.5 -4.8 2.7 50.0%
NEW ENGLAND @ DALLAS 9.5 5.3 -4.2 50.0%
CLEVELAND @ BALTIMORE -6.5 -12.9 -6.4 50.0%
PITTSBURGH @ SAN DIEGO -3.5 -0.8 2.7 49.8%
NEW ORLEANS @ PHILADELPHIA -5 -7.4 -2.4 48.9%

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

9 comments:

TotalBS said...

Based on my computer models, you may be in for another "ugly" week..... :)

****************************
Strongest Plays Of The Week:
****************************
Washington +7.5
New Orleans +4.5
TENNESSEE +2.5

Strong Opinions:
Chicago +9.5
Seattle +3

Best of luck to everyone.

TotalBS said...

Missed this strong opinion play:
Jacksonville +3 over TAMPA BAY

johnbart said...

Here are my lines on the picked games:

BUF (-3.0)
DEN (-3.9)
IND (+5.7)
CIN (-1.6)

so not really in agreement on any of the picks this week outside of BUF being close. Best of luck all.

fiftytwopointfour said...

My model went 1-2 for it's top picks last week, but I stand by the two losing selections knowing what was known at the time of the picks. The model went a strong 9-3 for the remaining games last week.

This week, the top three picks are:
- GIANTS -7
- BENGALS -3
- actually, there are only two picks with decent confidence this week

Good luck!

dbb57304-6ea1-11e5-a243-4fb58a4eec8f said...

fiftytwopointfour: I checked your website and I don't understand why the Giants and Bengals are your two top picks? The difference for the Giants is 2 and the difference for the Bengals is 1, and there are other games with bigger differences. Can you explain? Thanks.

fiftytwopointfour said...

Hi, I can't figure out what might have been looking at on my website. Are you looking at the first table in my Week 5 post? That table shows that my computer model has the Giants beating the 49ers by 11.1 while Vegas has them winning by 7, a 4.1 point difference. My model has the Bengals beating the Seahawks by 6.6 while Vegas has them winning by 3, a 3.6 difference.

Good luck!

RealLine said...

A week after doing well with a bunch of big dogs we have a flip and have a few big chalk picks. These types of bets make me even more nervous than big dogs.

ATL (-7.0)
BAL (-6.5)
DET (+3.0)
NYG (-7.0)

The one dog pick is definitely a dicey one as well as the Lions have yet to show that they remember how to play football.

Proost!

RealLine said...

Well we had a week that everyone has from time to time and got shut out going 0-4. This is why we measure success over the long haul and don't get too excited or too upset about a single week. Onto week 6, the sooner the better! :)

dbb57304-6ea1-11e5-a243-4fb58a4eec8f said...

fiftytwopointfour: For the NYG game last week on your website, I see MOV 9, Vegas Line -7, Diff 2. Maybe we are looking at different sites?