2015 NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 7

Pick 1: Cleveland +6 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Baltimore +9 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: Pittsburgh +3 incorrect NFL point spread pick

Here we are almost half way through and the NFL picks are struggling to go above 50%. Now that the models have enough data, I hope the models get good data in and the picks make a good turnaround. My week 7 picks are actually not that great. Last year they went 1-3 and the year before that 2-2.

I don't like that much that the 3 picks are visiting teams, but I can't put emotions to this. I'm not sure if Big Ben is playing but I think this play is mostly against KC. This week we stay at 17% of the bankroll split evenly across the 3 NFL games, giving us a bet of $500 per game. As we do every week, the statistically-driven NFL point spread picks are show below, for free.

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
CLEVELAND @ ST LOUIS -6 -3.5 2.5 68.0%
BALTIMORE @ ARIZONA -9 -4.8 4.2 68.0%
PITTSBURGH @ KANSAS CITY -3 5.5 8.5 58.3%
DALLAS @ NY GIANTS -4 -4.8 -0.8 56.3%
SEATTLE @ SAN FRANCISCO 6 4.6 -1.4 55.0%
ATLANTA @ TENNESSEE 4.5 15.5 11.0 55.0%
OAKLAND @ SAN DIEGO -4 -6.2 -2.2 54.4%
HOUSTON @ MIAMI -4 -8.5 -4.5 52.6%
TAMPA BAY @ WASHINGTON -3.5 -11.5 -8.0 51.2%
MINNESOTA @ DETROIT 3 3.0 0.0 50.0%
BUFFALO - JACKSONVILLE 5.5 7.8 2.3 50.0%
NY JETS @ NEW ENGLAND -9 -7.7 1.3 50.0%
PHILADELPHIA @ CAROLINA -3 5.9 8.9 50.0%
NEW ORLEANS @ INDIANAPOLIS -5 -4.7 0.3 49.3%

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

11 comments:

fiftytwopointfour said...

After a painful 0-3 week, my top picks are clinging to a .500 season (8-8-1). Good luck to us both.

Here are the top picks based on fiftytwopointfour's computer model:
> Redskins (-3.5)
> Giants (-3.5)
> Cardinals (-8.5)

johnbart said...

Here are my lines on the picks:

CLE (+4.8)
BAL (+3.7)
PIT (-3.8)

So my numbers like all of your picks. As a Bengals fan I am against the rest of the AFC North winning while Cincinnati has a bye but I'll still wish you good luck :)

johnbart said...

BTW where did you find that line in the Steelers game? I'm still seeing the game as off everywhere.

johnbart said...

PIT@KC is finally widely available. Looks like KC -2.5 trending towards -3. Taking into account that Big Ben is mostly likely going to still be cheering from the side lines.

Jaime Brugueras said...

Noted. I see it now at +3 and jumped on it. Now it's down to +2.5 PIT

RealLine said...

We share one pick this week in the Steelers. Going with a backup QB is usually a bit scary but I don't think Vick was helping much anyway.

PIT (+3.0)
TB (+3.0)
MIN (-1.0)
CAR (-3.0)

Proost!

tbar said...

Your site shows detroit as a half star play not the gmen is this correct?

RealLine said...

We went 3-1 on Sunday but we want Jaime to pick up the win tonight so we're on his side with:

BAL(+9.0)

We don't want the Bengals and their fans like johnbart to pick up a game on the whole division while on a bye. :)

Proost!

Jaime Brugueras said...

Congrats RealLine and thank you for supporting me. Yes, I need tonight's win so I don't completely humiliate myself and stay above water somehow. How dissapointing. In retrospect, Cleveland and a backup QB were not a great idea.

TotalBS said...

Baltimore is the luckiest cover I have ever seen, what a joke.

johnbart said...

Wohoo, everyone wins! Except Ravens fans but who cares about them? :)