Pick 2: Baltimore +9
Pick 3: Pittsburgh +3
Here we are almost half way through and the NFL picks are struggling to go above 50%. Now that the models have enough data, I hope the models get good data in and the picks make a good turnaround. My week 7 picks are actually not that great. Last year they went 1-3 and the year before that 2-2.
I don't like that much that the 3 picks are visiting teams, but I can't put emotions to this. I'm not sure if Big Ben is playing but I think this play is mostly against KC. This week we stay at 17% of the bankroll split evenly across the 3 NFL games, giving us a bet of $500 per game. As we do every week, the statistically-driven NFL point spread picks are show below, for free.
| Game | Vegas Line | Estimate | Prediction-Vegas | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLEVELAND @ ST LOUIS | -6 | -3.5 | 2.5 | 68.0% |
| BALTIMORE @ ARIZONA | -9 | -4.8 | 4.2 | 68.0% |
| PITTSBURGH @ KANSAS CITY | -3 | 5.5 | 8.5 | 58.3% |
| DALLAS @ NY GIANTS | -4 | -4.8 | -0.8 | 56.3% |
| SEATTLE @ SAN FRANCISCO | 6 | 4.6 | -1.4 | 55.0% |
| ATLANTA @ TENNESSEE | 4.5 | 15.5 | 11.0 | 55.0% |
| OAKLAND @ SAN DIEGO | -4 | -6.2 | -2.2 | 54.4% |
| HOUSTON @ MIAMI | -4 | -8.5 | -4.5 | 52.6% |
| TAMPA BAY @ WASHINGTON | -3.5 | -11.5 | -8.0 | 51.2% |
| MINNESOTA @ DETROIT | 3 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 50.0% |
| BUFFALO - JACKSONVILLE | 5.5 | 7.8 | 2.3 | 50.0% |
| NY JETS @ NEW ENGLAND | -9 | -7.7 | 1.3 | 50.0% |
| PHILADELPHIA @ CAROLINA | -3 | 5.9 | 8.9 | 50.0% |
| NEW ORLEANS @ INDIANAPOLIS | -5 | -4.7 | 0.3 | 49.3% |
How to read the table:
- Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
- Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
- Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
- Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.
11 comments:
After a painful 0-3 week, my top picks are clinging to a .500 season (8-8-1). Good luck to us both.
Here are the top picks based on fiftytwopointfour's computer model:
> Redskins (-3.5)
> Giants (-3.5)
> Cardinals (-8.5)
Here are my lines on the picks:
CLE (+4.8)
BAL (+3.7)
PIT (-3.8)
So my numbers like all of your picks. As a Bengals fan I am against the rest of the AFC North winning while Cincinnati has a bye but I'll still wish you good luck :)
BTW where did you find that line in the Steelers game? I'm still seeing the game as off everywhere.
PIT@KC is finally widely available. Looks like KC -2.5 trending towards -3. Taking into account that Big Ben is mostly likely going to still be cheering from the side lines.
Noted. I see it now at +3 and jumped on it. Now it's down to +2.5 PIT
We share one pick this week in the Steelers. Going with a backup QB is usually a bit scary but I don't think Vick was helping much anyway.
PIT (+3.0)
TB (+3.0)
MIN (-1.0)
CAR (-3.0)
Proost!
Your site shows detroit as a half star play not the gmen is this correct?
We went 3-1 on Sunday but we want Jaime to pick up the win tonight so we're on his side with:
BAL(+9.0)
We don't want the Bengals and their fans like johnbart to pick up a game on the whole division while on a bye. :)
Proost!
Congrats RealLine and thank you for supporting me. Yes, I need tonight's win so I don't completely humiliate myself and stay above water somehow. How dissapointing. In retrospect, Cleveland and a backup QB were not a great idea.
Baltimore is the luckiest cover I have ever seen, what a joke.
Wohoo, everyone wins! Except Ravens fans but who cares about them? :)
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