2015 NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 3

Pick 1: Kansas City +7 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: San Francisco +6.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: Denver -3.5 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 4: Indianapolis -3.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick

It somewhat makes me uncomfortable to see 4 visiting teams as pick but if that's the way the algorithm works then let be it. I also don't feel comfortable betting against the Packers but Kansas City is also a good bet. Indianapolis has had a rough start and it's probably under valued because of that. Detroit doesn't look good and although Manning had points in the game that looked like his last days, he was able to make a heck of a comeback. Plus the Denver defense (which I just picked up in my fantasy league) can turn the game our way.

It is cool at least that two of the games are night games. This week we continue betting 15% of the bankroll split evenly across the 4 NFL games, giving us a bet of $375 per game. Below is week 3 NFL point spread predictions.

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
KANSAS CITY @ GREEN BAY -7 -0.9 6.1 68.0%
SAN FRANCISCO @ ARIZONA -6.5 -2.2 4.3 66.7%
DENVER @ DETROIT 3.5 8.4 4.9 58.6%
INDIANAPOLIS @ TENNESSEE 3.5 20.0 16.5 57.7%
CINCINNATI @ BALTIMORE -2.5 3.0 5.5 55.6%
CHICAGO @ SEATTLE -15 -17.9 -2.9 54.2%
JACKSONVILLE @ NEW ENGLAND -14 -21.2 -7.2 53.5%
BUFFALO @ MIAMI -3 2.0 5.0 52.7%
TAMPA BAY @ HOUSTON -6.5 -8.3 -1.8 51.8%
NEW ORLEANS @ CAROLINA -6.5 3.3 9.8 51.6%
WASHINGTON @ NY GIANTS -3.5 -0.3 3.2 50.7%
OAKLAND @ CLEVELAND -3.5 -2.7 0.8 50.5%
SAN DIEGO @ MINNESOTA -2.5 -3 -0.5 50.0%
PITTSBURGH @ ST LOUIS 2 4.0 2.0 50.0%
PHILADELPHIA @ NY JETS -3 6.4 9.4 49.2%
ATLANTA @ DALLAS 2 -12.7 -14.7 NA

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

11 comments:

johnbart said...

Here are my model numbers for the 4 picks.

KC (+8.9)
SF (+6.1)
DEN (-0.9)
IND (+3.3)

The IND number is especially different with my model having TEN as almost a 3.5 fave instead of a 3.5 point dog. In this case I think the threat of going 0-3 guarantees that IND shows up strong so it would be a hard bet to make.

fiftytwopointfour said...

Jamie, do you make any injury adjustments for your picks? (e.g. Tony Romo).

Excited that my model's top 3 picks went 3-0 last week, and all picks aginst the point spread went 11-5. (And all over/under picks went 13-3!) That win rate cannot last, but it's fun to bask for a week!

Fiftytwopointfour's top 3 picks this week:
- Titans +3.5
- Panthers -3.0
- Cardinals -6.5

Picks for all games at http://fiftytwopointfour.wordpress.com

RealLine said...

We've got enough data at this point to start betting a decent amount on picks. Hopefully we'll have our first totals plays too. For this week we'll be posting them ahead of the games for fun instead of after kickoff. Tonight we like:

NYG (-3.5)

Proost!

Jaime Brugueras said...

Congrats on last week. Hope you go 1-2 this week :)

RealLine said...

We've got some Sunday picks to make:

Sides:
MIN (-1.0)
CLE (-3.5)
TEN (+3.0)

Totals:
PIT-STL (over 48.0)
DEN-DET (under 44.5)

The TEN pick is very tough to make going against IND given their 0-2 start. It's very likely that line will move to +3.5 before the morning so I would hold out for that.

Proost!

Jaime Brugueras said...

It's the national football league! All the picks are tough, but I do hope Andrew Luck leads his team to victory

Jaime Brugueras said...

Picking SF is probably the worst pick of my career.

RealLine said...

I don't know, picking Over 48 when the total ends up at 18 isn't a great result either. If you're at this long enough you end up with picks that look like pure genius and others that look silly :)

johnbart said...

Just a reminder to everyone that the NYJ-MIA game this upcoming week is in London on a neutral field.

Jaime Brugueras said...

Week 4 picks coming tonight. Probably during TNF. Work is crazy busy this week. Obviously Not betting on the Steelers game.

Joe Sanchez said...

Any chance the data is available before game time tonight? Please don't change the algorithm!