Pick 2: Jacksonville +6
Pick 3: NY Jets -1.5
Pick 4: Green Bay -11.5
I don't know what to say anymore, flip a coin I guess. This is the worst year of my career and time is running out to turn this around. This week we have many of the best ATS performing teams as picks.
This week we'll bet 20% of bankroll split evenly across the 4 picks to give us a bet of $250 per game.
| Game | Vegas Line | Estimate | Prediction-Vegas | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAROLINA @ TENNESSEE | 5.5 | 10.2 | 4.7 | 63.8% |
| JACKSONVILLE @ BALTIMORE | -6 | -0.9 | 5.1 | 60.7% |
| BUFFALO @ NY JETS | -1.5 | -7.8 | -6.3 | 59.8% |
| DETROIT @ GREEN BAY | -11.5 | -17.7 | -6.2 | 57.1% |
| ARIZONA @ SEATTLE | -3 | 2.5 | 6.5 | 56.4% |
| NEW ENGLAND @ NY GIANTS | 7.5 | 13.9 | 6.4 | 55.9% |
| MIAMI @ PHILADELPHIA | -6.5 | -7.8 | -1.3 | 54.3% |
| KANSAS CITY @ DENVER | -6.5 | -9.4 | -2.9 | 54.3% |
| HOUSTON @ CINCINNATI | -10.5 | -6.2 | 4.3 | 54.2% |
| MINNESOTA @ OAKLAND | -3 | 1.4 | 4.4 | 47.6% |
| DALLAS @ TAMPA BAY | -1.5 | -10.5 | -9.0 | 40.0% |
| CLEVELAND @ PITTSBURGH | -4.5 | -6.8 | -2.3 | 38.9% |
| CHICAGO @ ST LOUIS | -7.5 | -2.6 | 4.9 | 36.8% |
| NEW ORLEANS @ WASHINGTON | 1 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 33.3% |
How to read the table:
- Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
- Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
- Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
- Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.
7 comments:
Here is the problem in the NFL for any stat based systems... INJURIES!!!
How are you supposed to evaluate teams performance when every week the teams are at different strengths.
Case in point:
Buffalo without Tyrod Taylor and Sammy Watkins for a few weeks, they tank. Now they are healthy. Your stats like the Jets, but now the Bills are at a higher strength.
Same thing with Tennessee... Played great with Mariota, he goes out, the team tanks, and now he is back again... And of course you like Carolina.
It isn't your model thats the issue, it is the injuries that are skewing your data.
Stick with it Jaime.
The game is about a bunch of men moving a weird shaped ball down the field to score. There's no model or approach that is going to get you wins all of the time. It's all about having a model and approach that gives you an edge and sticking to it long term. Even with a strong edge success on any given game or week isn't guaranteed but it is in the long term. Don't fret the highs or lows.
My lines on the picks:
CAR(-5.6)
JAC(+7.4)
NYJ(-5.5)
GB(-9.5)
Most are close enough to the Vegas line to be neutral. The only one I strongly agree with is the NYJ pick so maybe that's a good sign for the rest of the picks given the results last night. :)
Tennessee (Best Bet)
Jacksonville
Arizona
Best of luck to all.
At what spreads?
Another quiet week for use after going 0-2 last week:
NO(PK)
SEA(-3.0)
CAR@TEN(Under 44)
Best of luck all.
I posted my picks to my blog on Wednesday night, but I forgot to post the highest confidence picks here. Better late than never?
> Raiders (-3) ... LOSS
> Redskins (+1) ... WIN
> Bengals (-10.5) ... ?
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