2015 NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 9
Pick 1: NY Jets -6 
Pick 2: Minnesota -1.5
Pick 3: Atlanta -7
Pick 4: Philadelphia -3
This week all point spread picks are favorites. The model is preferring home and visiting favorites by a more wider margin than expected. Who knows, maybe these models will finally get it right this week...
Yes, you might be better off at doing the opposite of what I say. This being my lowest moment in my humble handicapping carrer, I will not give up. I will continue running my models and if I get lucky, maybe I turn this around and end up a bit above water before season ends.
This week we continue to bet 17% of bankroll split evenly across the 4 picks to give us a bet of $350 per game.
How to read the table:
Pick 2: Minnesota -1.5
Pick 3: Atlanta -7
Pick 4: Philadelphia -3
This week all point spread picks are favorites. The model is preferring home and visiting favorites by a more wider margin than expected. Who knows, maybe these models will finally get it right this week...
Yes, you might be better off at doing the opposite of what I say. This being my lowest moment in my humble handicapping carrer, I will not give up. I will continue running my models and if I get lucky, maybe I turn this around and end up a bit above water before season ends.
This week we continue to bet 17% of bankroll split evenly across the 4 picks to give us a bet of $350 per game.
| Game | Vegas Line | Estimate | Prediction-Vegas | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JACKSONVILLE @ NY JETS | -6 | -16.0 | -10.0 | 60.5% |
| ST LOUIS @ MINNESOTA | -1.5 | -15.6 | -14.1 | 60.4% |
| ATLANTA @ SAN FRANCISCO | 7 | 14.1 | 7.1 | 58.0% |
| PHILADELPHIA @ DALLAS | 3 | 13.3 | 10.3 | 57.0% |
| NY GIANTS @ TAMPA BAY | 2.5 | 6.5 | 4.0 | 54.1% |
| DENVER @ INDIANAPOLIS | 5 | 6.0 | 1.0 | 52.0% |
| CLEVELAND @ CINCINNATI | -11 | -7.8 | 3.2 | 50.0% |
| TENNESSEE @ NEW ORLEANS | -9 | -8.6 | 0.4 | 50.0% |
| WASHINGTON @ NEW ENGLAND | -14 | -13.0 | 1.0 | 50.0% |
| CHICAGO @ SAN DIEGO | -4 | -2.5 | 1.5 | 50.0% |
| GREEN BAY @ CAROLINA | 3 | -2.3 | -5.3 | 49.7% |
| MIAMI @ BUFFALO | -3 | -10.9 | -7.9 | 49.7% |
| OAKLAND @ PITTSBURGH | -4.5 | -6.5 | -2.0 | 49.0% |
How to read the table:
- Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
- Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
- Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
- Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.
Comments
NYJ(-9.8)
MIN(-3.5)
ATL(-4.0)
PHI(+0.7)
So I like the NYJ and MIN picks, not so much on the ATL and PHI ones.
Vikings are overrated.
> Jets (-8)
> Rams (+2.5)
> Panthers (+2.5)
... and, why not:
> Under Broncos/Colts (45)
Looking forward to seeing your 67% winning picks, commenter Paul Lechiara.
WAS(+14.0)
DAL(+3.0)
Jets at -6 from Jaime is a solid pick. If I had that available at any time this week I would have given it some action.
NYJ -8
MIN -1
NOS -7
NEP -14
SFO +7
Good luck to all