2015 NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 9

Pick 1: NY Jets -6 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Minnesota -1.5 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: Atlanta -7 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 4: Philadelphia -3 correct NFL point spread pick

This week all point spread picks are favorites. The model is preferring home and visiting favorites by a more wider margin than expected. Who knows, maybe these models will finally get it right this week...

Yes, you might be better off at doing the opposite of what I say. This being my lowest moment in my humble handicapping carrer, I will not give up. I will continue running my models and if I get lucky, maybe I turn this around and end up a bit above water before season ends.

This week we continue to bet 17% of bankroll split evenly across the 4 picks to give us a bet of $350 per game.

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
JACKSONVILLE @ NY JETS -6 -16.0 -10.0 60.5%
ST LOUIS @ MINNESOTA -1.5 -15.6 -14.1 60.4%
ATLANTA @ SAN FRANCISCO 7 14.1 7.1 58.0%
PHILADELPHIA @ DALLAS 3 13.3 10.3 57.0%
NY GIANTS @ TAMPA BAY 2.5 6.5 4.0 54.1%
DENVER @ INDIANAPOLIS 5 6.0 1.0 52.0%
CLEVELAND @ CINCINNATI -11 -7.8 3.2 50.0%
TENNESSEE @ NEW ORLEANS -9 -8.6 0.4 50.0%
WASHINGTON @ NEW ENGLAND -14 -13.0 1.0 50.0%
CHICAGO @ SAN DIEGO -4 -2.5 1.5 50.0%
GREEN BAY @ CAROLINA 3 -2.3 -5.3 49.7%
MIAMI @ BUFFALO -3 -10.9 -7.9 49.7%
OAKLAND @ PITTSBURGH -4.5 -6.5 -2.0 49.0%

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

7 comments:

Brock Landers said...

Jaime, Im curious about your estimate on the St Louis - Minnesota game. Usually my #'s are within a few points of yours, but that number Minnesota by 15.6 looks really high. St Louis has lost both of their away games to the Potato Skins 24-10 and to the Packers 24-10. So the Rams appear to be one of those teams that play well at home but play poorly on the road. Does your model put an emphasis on home versus away performance? Anyways, I have the Vikings winning a close one, 16-14. Good Luck this week.

johnbart said...

My lines on this week's picks:

NYJ(-9.8)
MIN(-3.5)
ATL(-4.0)
PHI(+0.7)

So I like the NYJ and MIN picks, not so much on the ATL and PHI ones.

TotalBS said...

St. Louis will beat the Vikings, according to my play by play statistics their defense will pressure Bridgewater and he will have a bad game, turning it over.

Vikings are overrated.

fiftytwopointfour said...

fiftytwopointfour broke its recent losing streak going 2-1-1 last week. Here are the highest confidence picks for week 9:

> Jets (-8)
> Rams (+2.5)
> Panthers (+2.5)
... and, why not:
> Under Broncos/Colts (45)

Looking forward to seeing your 67% winning picks, commenter Paul Lechiara.

RealLine said...

Another quiet week for us. This mid season lull is fairly normal with teams on byes. Only two picks this week and they seem more than a bit scary. I personally would be excited about going 1-1 again but I'm not going to fight the math.

WAS(+14.0)
DAL(+3.0)

Jets at -6 from Jaime is a solid pick. If I had that available at any time this week I would have given it some action.

paul lechiara said...

Here are my picks ATS
NYJ -8
MIN -1
NOS -7
NEP -14
SFO +7
Good luck to all

fiftytwopointfour said...

Congrats, Paul!