2015 NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 11

Pick 1: St Louis +3 PUSH
Pick 2: New England -7 PUSH
Pick 3: San Francisco +12.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick

This week we'll bet 20% of bankroll split evenly across the 3 picks to give us a bet of $500 per game.

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
ST LOUIS @ BALTIMORE -3 4.3 7.3 62.4%
BUFFALO @ NEW ENGLAND -7 -10.4 -3.4 59.0 %
SAN FRANCISCO @ SEATTLE -12.5 -8.0 4.5 58.0%
TAMPA BAY @ PHILADELPHIA -5.5 0.3 5.8 56.7%
TENNESSEE @ JACKSONVILLE -3 -2.2 0.8 56.4%
DALLAS @ MIAMI 0 6.4 6.4 52.7%
KANSAS CITY @ SAN DIEGO 3 5.8 2.8 50.8%
OAKLAND @ DETROIT 2.5 0.3 -2.2 50.0%
GREEN BAY @ MINNESOTA 0 1.4 1.4 50.0%
INDIANAPOLIS @ ATLANTA -6 1.1 7.1 50.0%
CINCINNATI @ ARIZONA -4 -2.3 1.7 50.0%
WASHINGTON @ CAROLINA -7 -10.3 -3.3 50.0%
NY JETS @ HOUSTON 2.5 -1.1 -3.6 49.4%
DENVER @ CHICAGO -1 6.5 7.5 NA

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

5 comments:

johnbart said...

My lines on the picks:

STL (+5.2)
NE (-12.5)
SF (+9.2)

So my numbers like the NE and SF picks.

fiftytwopointfour said...

fiftytwopointfour's top 3 picks this week after going 1-2 last week:

Broncos (+1.5)
Jets (-2.5)
SEAHAWKS (-12.5)

RealLine said...

We start getting into the heart of the season nearing the end of the byes. That means more picks and hopefully a better run than the past few weeks.

DET (+1.5)
CAR (-7.0)
CIN (+5.0)
SF (+13.0)
NE (-7.0)

SF@SEA (Under 40.5)

Some of the lines are going to move the wrong way quickly so we're acting early this week.

Proost!

Jaime Brugueras said...

2-1, nice

Jaime Brugueras said...

I personally bought the points on the STL game a push there.