2015 NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 15

Pick 1: St. Louis -2 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Arizona -3 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: Green Bay -3 correct NFL point spread pick

Ok the boat hopefully has hit bottom. You're definitely now better off doing the opposite. I of course need to keep believing and continue posting my picks. We'll continue running the models and making picks until the end of the season. Hopefully we have a good run during the playoffs were we place a higher percent of whatever is left of the bankroll at that point.

We will continue betting 27% of bankroll split evenly across the 3 picks to give us a bet of $400 per game.

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
TAMPA BAY @ ST LOUIS -2 -4.6 -2.6 63.6%
ARIZONA @ PHILADELPHIA 3 6.0 3.0 58.1%
GREEN BAY @ OAKLAND 3 7.2 4.2 57.0%
DETROIT @ NEW ORLEANS -3 -3.6 -0.6 56.0%
HOUSTON @ INDIANAPOLIS 3 1.2 -1.8 54.8%
MIAMI @ SAN DIEGO -1.5 -6.0 -4.5 52.3%
NY JETS @ DALLAS 3 6.6 3.6 50.0%
CAROLINA @ NY GIANTS 5 8.9 3.9 50.0%
KANSAS CITY @ BALTIMORE 7.5 6.9 -0.6 50.0%
TENNESSEE @ NEW ENGLAND -14 -19.2 -5.2 50.0%
BUFFALO @ WASHINGTON 0 3.8 3.8 50.0%
DENVER @ PITTSBURGH -6 5.4 11.4 49.1%
ATLANTA @ JACKSONVILLE -3 1.2 4.2 48.9%
CLEVELAND @ SEATTLE -14.5 -15.0 -0.5 47.4%
CHICAGO @ MINNESOTA -5.5 -10.6 -5.1 47.3%
CINCINNATI @ SAN FRANCISCO 4.5 17.3 12.8 NA

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

9 comments:

John Mullrooney said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
John Mullrooney said...

Here are my picks and scores based on statistical simulation modelling and neural-net processing.

Week 15 Picks:

ATS:
1. New Orleans -3
2. Seattle -14.5
3. Tampa Bay +2.5
4. NY Jets
5. Arizona -3.5
6. Minnesota -5.5

Over/Under:
1. Sea/Cle Over 43
2. NO/Det Over 50.5
3. GB/Oak Under 47
4. Dal/NYJ Under 42
5. Indy/Houston Under 45

St. Louis 18 Tampa Bay 23
Dallas 13 NY Jets 23
Minnesota 20 Chicago 19
Jacksonville 27 Atlanta 20
Indianapolis 20 Houston 19
Philadelphia 20 Arizona 28
NY Giants 23 Carolina 26
New England 31 Tennessee 15
Washington 23 Buffalo 23
Baltimore 16 Kansas City 22
Seattle 39 Cleveland 15
Oakland 20 Green Bay 20
Pittsburgh 23 Denver 17
San Diego 22 Miami 20
San Francisco 13 Cincinnati 25
New Orleans 38 Detroit 22

2016 record is 59% ATS and 56% Over/Under

fiftytwopointfour said...

Here are fiftytwopointfour's picks for the week after going 1-2 last week. Keep on keeping the faith, Jaime - if Paul Lechiara can regress to the mean, so can we.

> RAIDERS (+3)
> SEAHAWKS (-14.5)
> Bengals (-4.5)
> Cardinals/EAGLES (Under 50.5)

2016: 51.6% ATS, 57.8% Over/Under

RealLine said...

Pro football on Saturdays always feels weird to me unless it's the playoffs :) This week's picks:

ARI (-3.5)
WAS (+2.0)
DEN (+7.0)
DET (+3.0)

CLE@SEA (over 43.0)

Proost!

NBAComputerMan said...

If you guys bet NBA, check out @NBA_ComputerMan on Twitter... 6-0 last night.

paul lechiara said...

1pm picks ATS
Min -4
KC -7
NEP -14
Carol -5
Good luck all!!!

dbb57304-6ea1-11e5-a243-4fb58a4eec8f said...

Paul Lechiara continues to be the star here.

RealLine said...

Congrats to everyone on a big winning week. If only every week was like this! :)

fiftytwopointfour said...

Congrats, Jaime, for the perfect week! And congrats to everyone else, too!