2015 NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 8

Pick 1: Atlanta -7 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Cincinnati +1.5 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: Carolina -7 incorrect NFL point spread pick

This is frustrating. Baltimore's blocked kick in the last 5 minutes saved us from complete embarrassment. Last week's 1-2 record could've also been better because PIT shouldn't have been a pick given Ben nor Vick were starting. It is time to turn things around. We are right in the middle of the season and there should be valuable data feeding these models.

Lots of picks this week yet none of them are underdogs. We got 2 home favorite picks (ATL, CAR) and a road team (CIN). We continue using 17% of bankroll split evenly across the 3 picks to give us a bet of $500 per game.

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
TAMPA BAY @ ATLANTA -7 -15.6 -8.6 60.0%
CINCINNATI @ PITTSBURGH -1.5 5.7 7.2 58.3%
INDIANAPOLIS @ CAROLINA -7 -15.8 -8.8 57.3%
SAN DIEGO @ BALTIMORE -3 -9.1 -6.1 56.1%
ARIZONA @ CLEVELAND 5.5 12.1 6.6 55.0%
KANSAS CITY @ DETROIT 5 2.5 -2.5 54.0%
SAN FRANCISCO @ ST LOUIS -8.5 -13.9 -5.4 54.0%
MIAMI @ NEW ENGLAND -8 -1.2 6.8 53.0%
NY JETS @ OAKLAND 2 5.8 3.8 50.3%
SEATTLE @ DALLAS 6 7.8 1.8 50.8%
MINNESOTA @ CHICAGO 1 8.3 7.3 50.0%
TENNESSEE @ HOUSTON -4 -11.5 -7.5 50.0%
DETROIT @ KANSAS CITY -5 -7.3 -2.3 50.0%
GREEN BAY @ DENVER 3.5 -5.5 -9.0 49.6%
NY GIANTS @ NEW ORLEANS -3.5 -8.2 -4.7 48.8%

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

11 comments:

johnbart said...

Here are my lines on the picks:

ATL (-7.8)
CIN (+1.4)
CAR (-9.0)

So I'm surprisingly on the other side of the CIN but I like the CAR pick. It's interesting that my numbers like PIT even with Big Ben having been out. As a Bengals fan I can't approve.

Best of luck all.

fiftytwopointfour said...

I'm on a bad run of sub-.500 weeks after going 1-2 last weekend. There are four games that fiftytwopointfour likes this week. A nice 3-1 or 4-0 week would be nice to get back on track!

RAVENS (-3)
Titans (+4.5)
Cardinals (-4.5)
RAMS (-8)

RealLine said...

Vegas lines look solid this week so not a lot of action from us.

BAL(-3.5)
MIN(-1.0)

Proost!

Jaime Brugueras said...

Hopefully you bought the half point

paul lechiara said...

Jamie,
I hope you have a day job because you might as well flip a coin the way you have been picking them this season. I hope things turn around for you. Good luck

RealLine said...

Half point wins and losses are the bread and butter of all serious handicappers. We'll take a 1-1 week when the lines are as tight as they were. :)

For Paul and all the other people getting negative on Jaime's posted picks feel free to post all your picks too. Back up your talk with your winning picks. It's easy to talk from the rail when you're not even holding cards.

paul lechiara said...

I will start posting. I've been over 67% on my picks against the spread this season. Watch for me the next few weeks. Good luck to all. #winningATS

johnbart said...

Posting all of your picks in public takes big balls so kudos to Jaime and others for doing it.

Of the other people posting in the comments the only one I see picking consistent winners is RealLine. Looking back at his posts here it looks like he's 23-11 for the season or almost 68% which I personally wouldn't believe if it hadn't been public. He's pretty much the only one allowed to give anyone shit about their picks so far :)

Jaime Brugueras said...

I can't disagree there. It's been very frustrating.

Jaime Brugueras said...

Like. You know how many times I've gotten shit for the picks? It doesn't bother me anymore. I still believe my models are on to something, they just haven't been successful this year. Let's hope things get better this year and not worse.

fiftytwopointfour said...

+1