2015 NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 8
Pick 1: Atlanta -7 
Pick 2: Cincinnati +1.5
Pick 3: Carolina -7
This is frustrating. Baltimore's blocked kick in the last 5 minutes saved us from complete embarrassment. Last week's 1-2 record could've also been better because PIT shouldn't have been a pick given Ben nor Vick were starting. It is time to turn things around. We are right in the middle of the season and there should be valuable data feeding these models.
Lots of picks this week yet none of them are underdogs. We got 2 home favorite picks (ATL, CAR) and a road team (CIN). We continue using 17% of bankroll split evenly across the 3 picks to give us a bet of $500 per game.
How to read the table:
Pick 2: Cincinnati +1.5
Pick 3: Carolina -7
This is frustrating. Baltimore's blocked kick in the last 5 minutes saved us from complete embarrassment. Last week's 1-2 record could've also been better because PIT shouldn't have been a pick given Ben nor Vick were starting. It is time to turn things around. We are right in the middle of the season and there should be valuable data feeding these models.
Lots of picks this week yet none of them are underdogs. We got 2 home favorite picks (ATL, CAR) and a road team (CIN). We continue using 17% of bankroll split evenly across the 3 picks to give us a bet of $500 per game.
| Game | Vegas Line | Estimate | Prediction-Vegas | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TAMPA BAY @ ATLANTA | -7 | -15.6 | -8.6 | 60.0% |
| CINCINNATI @ PITTSBURGH | -1.5 | 5.7 | 7.2 | 58.3% |
| INDIANAPOLIS @ CAROLINA | -7 | -15.8 | -8.8 | 57.3% |
| SAN DIEGO @ BALTIMORE | -3 | -9.1 | -6.1 | 56.1% |
| ARIZONA @ CLEVELAND | 5.5 | 12.1 | 6.6 | 55.0% |
| KANSAS CITY @ DETROIT | 5 | 2.5 | -2.5 | 54.0% |
| SAN FRANCISCO @ ST LOUIS | -8.5 | -13.9 | -5.4 | 54.0% |
| MIAMI @ NEW ENGLAND | -8 | -1.2 | 6.8 | 53.0% |
| NY JETS @ OAKLAND | 2 | 5.8 | 3.8 | 50.3% |
| SEATTLE @ DALLAS | 6 | 7.8 | 1.8 | 50.8% |
| MINNESOTA @ CHICAGO | 1 | 8.3 | 7.3 | 50.0% |
| TENNESSEE @ HOUSTON | -4 | -11.5 | -7.5 | 50.0% |
| DETROIT @ KANSAS CITY | -5 | -7.3 | -2.3 | 50.0% |
| GREEN BAY @ DENVER | 3.5 | -5.5 | -9.0 | 49.6% |
| NY GIANTS @ NEW ORLEANS | -3.5 | -8.2 | -4.7 | 48.8% |
How to read the table:
- Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
- Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
- Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
- Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.
Comments
ATL (-7.8)
CIN (+1.4)
CAR (-9.0)
So I'm surprisingly on the other side of the CIN but I like the CAR pick. It's interesting that my numbers like PIT even with Big Ben having been out. As a Bengals fan I can't approve.
Best of luck all.
RAVENS (-3)
Titans (+4.5)
Cardinals (-4.5)
RAMS (-8)
BAL(-3.5)
MIN(-1.0)
Proost!
I hope you have a day job because you might as well flip a coin the way you have been picking them this season. I hope things turn around for you. Good luck
For Paul and all the other people getting negative on Jaime's posted picks feel free to post all your picks too. Back up your talk with your winning picks. It's easy to talk from the rail when you're not even holding cards.
Of the other people posting in the comments the only one I see picking consistent winners is RealLine. Looking back at his posts here it looks like he's 23-11 for the season or almost 68% which I personally wouldn't believe if it hadn't been public. He's pretty much the only one allowed to give anyone shit about their picks so far :)