2016 NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 17

Pick 1: Miami +9.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Indianapolis -4.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick

We continue to either win big or go home by continuing the 30% of bankroll. This puts us at $1200 a game for the 2 games (plus a a big parlay) we have going on this week. Good luck to all of us including the chicken making picks on Twitter, hilarious.

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
NEW ENGLAND @ MIAMI 9.5 7.0 -2.5 63.6%
JACKSONVILLE @ INDIANAPOLIS -4.5 -5.2 -0.7 60.0%
CAROLINA @ TAMPA BAY -5.5 -9.3 -3.8 56.1%
KANSAS CITY @ SAN DIEGO 6 16.1 10.1 55.5%
CLEVELAND @ PITTSBURGH -6 -3.0 3.0 54.8%
SEATTLE @ SAN FRANCISCO 9.5 3.6 -5.9 53.7%
HOUSTON @ TENNESSEE -3 0.5 3.5 50.4%
BALTIMORE @ CINCINNATI -2 4.2 6.2 51.1%
CHICAGO @ MINNESOTA -5 -3 2 50.0%
ARIZONA @ LOS ANGELES 6 0.1 -5.9 50.0%
OAKLAND@ DENVER -2 -3.5 -1.5 49.4%
GREEN BAY @ DETROIT 3.5 6.5 3.0 49.0%
BUFFALO @ NY JETS 3.5 -7.2 -10.7 48.0%
DALLAS @ PHILADELPHIA -3.5 1.8 5.3 NA
NY GIANTS @ WASHINGTON -7.5 -3.0 4.5 NA
NEW ORLEANS @ ATLANTA -6.5 -16.8 -10.3 NA

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

2016 NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 16

Pick 1: Seattle -8 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Atlanta -2.5 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: Dallas -7 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 4: San Diego -6.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 5: Kansas City -4 correct NFL point spread pick

We continue to either win big or go home by continuing the 30% of bankroll. This puts us at $400 a game for the 5 games we have going on this week.

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
ARIZONA @ SEATTLE -8 -15.6 -7.6 72.4%
ATLANTA @ CAROLINA 2.5 13.9 11.4 62.5%
DETROIT @ DALLAS -7 -9.1 -2.1 58.7%
SAN DIEGO @ CLEVELAND 6.5 11.6 5.1 57.3%
DENVER @ KANSAS CITY -4 -10.8 -6.8 57.0%
CINCINNATI @ HOUSTON -2 -8.3 -6.3 55.1%
INDIANAPOLIS @ OAKLAND -4 -10.1 -6.1 53.5%
NY JETS @ NEW ENGLAND -16.5 -12.9 3.6 52.6%
NY GIANTS @ PHILADELPHIA 2.5 1.5 -1.0 52.0%
MIAMI @ BUFFALO -3.5 -7.6 -4.1 51.4%
SAN FRANCISCO @ LOS ANGELES -3.5 -3.0 0.5 50.4%
WASHINGTON @ CHICAGO 3 -3.0 -6.0 50.0%
TENNESSEE @ JACKSONVILLE 5 11.0 6.0 50.0%
TAMPA BAY @ NEW ORLEANS -3 -17.3 -14.3 50.0%
MINNESOTA @ GREEN BAY -7 -15.9 -8.9 49.4%
BALTIMORE @ PITTSBURGH -4.5 -3.0 1.5 48.3%

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

2016 NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 15

Pick 1: Kansas City -6
Pick 2: Los Angeles +16
Pick 3: Oakland -3

It's time to win big or go home. Last year we went 3-0 on picks for week 15, and this year things can't get any worse (but like a colleague of mine said, when your losing what do you have to lose?). So we are cranking up the bet to 30% of bankroll. If Julio Jones makes it back that will be $750 per game, if not, it's $1,100 per game. Good luck to all of us. Update: removed Atlanta but added Oakland.

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
TENNESSEE @ KANSAS CITY -6 -16.1 -10.1 62.0%
LOS ANGELES @ SEATTLE -16 -13.9 2.1 58.8%
SAN FRANCISCO @ ATLANTA -13.5 -17.5 -4.0 58.4%
PHILADELPHIA @ BALTIMORE -6 -2.0 4.0 56.7%
OAKLAND @ SAN DIEGO 3 12.8 9.8 55.2%
PITTSBURGH @ CINCINNATI 3.5 2.0 -1.5 54.0%
NEW ENGLAND @ DENVER 3 6.9 3.9 53.1%
NEW ORLEANS @ ARIZONA -2.5 -5.7 -3.2 51.4%
INDIANAPOLIS @ MINNESOTA -4 1.1 5.1 51.1%
GREEN BAY @ CHICAGO 7 5 -2.0 51.1%
CLEVELAND @ BUFFALO -10 -7.3 2.7 50.8%
JACKSONVILLE @ HOUSTON -6 -8.5 -2.5 50.7%
MIAMI @ NY JETS 2.5 1.4 -1.1 50.5%
TAMPA BAY @ DALLAS -7 -8.0 -1.0 50.0%
DETROIT @ NY GIANTS -4 -5.5 -1.5 49.0%
CAROLINA @ WASHINGTON -5 -3.0 2.0 48.3%

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

2016 NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 14

Pick 1: Carolina -1 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Indianapolis -6 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: New York Jets +2.5 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 4*: Denver -1 incorrect NFL point spread pick

Waiting on Sieman's status for Denver's pick, will update later this week. Thank you all for those who keep encouraging me. My patience and trust is at rock bottom.

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
SAN DIEGO @ CAROLINA -1 -6.5 -5.5 65.0%
HOUSTON @ INDIANAPOLIS -6 -9.9 -3.9 57.9%
NY JETS @ SAN FRANCISCO -2.5 5.1 7.6 56.4%
DENVER* @ TENNESSEE 1 7.9 6.9 57.1%
CHICAGO @ DETROIT -9 -3.9 5.1 55.5%
OAKLAND @ KANSAS CITY -3 -8.3 -5.3 54.5%
PITTSBURGH @ BUFFALO 2.5 -1.9 -4.4 54.0%
SEATTLE @ GREEN BAY 3 6.1 3.1 53.1%
DALLAS @ NY GIANTS 3.5 3.2 -0.3 52.0%
ARIZONA @ MIAMI -1.5 -0.8 0.7 51.6%
BALTIMORE @ NEW ENGLAND -7 -12.9 -5.9 50.0%
MINNESOTA @ JACKSONVILLE 3.5 1.5 2.0 50.0%
ATLANTA @ LOS ANGELES 6 11.3 5.3 50.0%
CINCINNATI @ CLEVELAND 6 5 1.0 49.0%
NEW ORLEANS @ TAMPA BAY -2.5 -7 -4.5 48.5%
WASHINGTON @ PHILADELPHIA 1 -3.0 -4.0 46.4%

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

2016 NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 13

Pick 1: Washington +2.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: New Orleans -5.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: Miami +3.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 4: Denver -4 correct NFL point spread pick

Another tough week last week. At this point, I've given up on a good record for the regular season but really hoping to turn it around and have a great ending like last year. If you recall, last year the turnaround happened in week 15 to then go 8-2 during the playoffs. Anyways, this week we're going with 3 road teams and a home favorite.

Staying at 18% of bankroll, each game gets a $350 bet. Lets turn this around now.

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
WASHINGTON @ ARIZONA -2.5 0.6 3.1 60.4%
DETROIT @ NEW ORLEANS -5.5 -10.8 -5.3 59.8%
MIAMI @ BALTIMORE -3.5 -0.4 3.1 58.1%
DENVER @ JACKSONVILLE 4 7.9 3.9 58.1%
CAROLINA @ SEATTLE -6.5 -12.2 -5.7 55.0%
NY GIANTS @ PITTSBURGH -6 -3.0 3.0 54.8%
DALLAS @ MINNESOTA 3.5 4.8 1.3 53.1%
TAMPA BAY @ SAN DIEGO -3.5 -5.5 -2.0 51.4%
HOUSTON @ GREEN BAY -6.5 -12.1 -5.6 51.0%
BUFFALO @ OAKLAND -3 -5.2 -2.2 50.0%
SAN FRANCISCO @ CHICAGO -1.5 1.9 3.4 50.0%
KANSAS CITY @ ATLANTA -3.5 -10.3 -9.8 49.5%
INDIANAPOLIS @ NY JETS 1 -1.8 -2.8 49.4%
LOS ANGELES @ NEW ENGLAND -13.5 -12.7 0.8 48.3%
PHILADELPHIA @ CINCINNATI 1 -4.4 -5.4 NA

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

2016 NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 12

Pick 1: Cleveland +7 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Atlanta -4.5 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: Minnesota +2.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 4: Los Angeles +7 incorrect NFL point spread pick

That's right, Cleveland even with Josh McCown. I would usually stay away from a bet when a key player is out but I do think this benefits Cleveland. There's a pretty high probability that they break their winless record this week so at least here we're hoping they win or lose by less than 7. The others are solid picks except for Los Angeles which I'm not super excited to bet against New Orleans at home.

Staying at 18% of bankroll, each game gets a $400 bet. Get some wins!

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
NY GIANTS @ CLEVELAND 7 -2.0 -9.0 61.7%
ARIZONA @ ATLANTA -4.5 -8.3 -3.8 59.1%
MINNESOTA @ DETROIT -2.5 2.8 5.3 58.4%
LOS ANGELES @ NEW ORLEANS -7 -4.0 3.0 57.8%
SAN FRANCISCO @ MIAMI -7.5 -6.1 1.4 54.8%
JACKSONVILLE @ BUFFALO -7 -5.0 2.0 54.8%
CINCINNATI @ BALTIMORE -4.5 0.1 4.6 53.8%
KANSAS CITY @ DENVER -3.5 -5.8 -2.3 52.4%
NEW ENGLAND @ NY JETS 8 10 2.0 51.1%
GREEN BAY @ PHILADELPHIA -3.5 -4.3 -0.8 50.7%
WASHINGTON @ DALLAS -7 -8.1 -1.1 50.0%
SEATTLE @ TAMPA BAY 5.5 4.6 -0.9 50.0%
CAROLINA @ OAKLAND -4 -5.7 -1.7 50.0%
SAN DIEGO @ HOUSTON -1 2.8 3.8 48.5%
PITTSBURGH @ INDIANAPOLIS 6 -1.6 -7.6 NA
TENNESSEE @ CHICAGO 3.5 -1.3 -4.8 NA

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

2016 NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 11

Pick 1: KC -7 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Dallas -7 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: New Orleans +3.5 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 4: Los Angeles +2.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick

At the top of the list we got two home favorites by 7. Expecting blowouts on both games and will get both games at -7. The NO/CAR is going to be close and NO has a good chance of stealing it from them even though Carolina's D is better than it was when they previously played. Finally the last one is being played in Mexico and so Los Angeles has a much bigger home advantage...lol. Just going with the numbers and avoiding emotions.

Staying at 18% of bankroll, each game gets a $400 bet. Get some wins!

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
TAMPA BAY @ KANSAS CITY -7 -10.3 -3.3 61.9%
BALTIMORE @ DALLAS -7 -11.4 -4.4 60.7%
NEW ORLEANS @ CAROLINA -3.5 0.4 3.9 58.4%
MIAMI @ LOS ANGELES 2.5 -2.3 -4.2 58.0%
ARIZONA @ MINNESOTA 1 -4.2 -5.2 54.3%
PITTSBURGH @ CLEVELAND 9 5.0 -4.0 53.7%
CHICAGO @ NY GIANTS -7.5 -4.8 2.7 50.8%
JACKSONVILLE @ DETROIT -6.5 -4.1 2.4 50.8%
PHILADELPHIA @ SEATTLE -6.5 -8.0 -1.5 50.0%
TENNESSEE @ INDIANAPOLIS -3 -2.9 0.1 50.0%
GREEN BAY @ WASHINGTON -2.5 -3.0 -0.5 50.0%
OAKLAND - HOUSTON 6 3 -3.0 49.1%
NEW ENGLAND @ SAN FRANCISCO 13 14.5 1.5 47.4%
BUFFALO @ CINCINNATI -3 -3.5 -0.5 46.5%

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

2016 NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 10

Pick 1: San Diego -4 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Denver +2.5 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: Philadelphia +1
Pick 4: Cincinnati +2.5 correct NFL point spread pick

I can't really talk. Still shocked about last week, what a week! Cubs win the World Series, Trump wins the White House and we go 0-4. Something's cursed! That sucked and it exposed my biggest fear, if the model really needs more weeks of data and only starts working later in the season. Idk, so we'll continue monitoring.

Staying at 18% of bankroll, each game gets a $400 bet. Happy gambling!

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
MIAMI @ SAN DIEGO -4 -8.8 -4.8 61.4%
DENVER @ NEW ORLEANS -2.5 -0.5 2.0 60.1%
ATLANTA @ PHILADELPHIA 1 -2.8 -3.8 59.4%
CINCINNATI @ NY GIANTS -2.5 -0.3 2.2 58.1%
KANSAS CITY @ CAROLINA -3 3.4 6.4 55.1%
CLEVELAND @ BALTIMORE -10 -7 3 54.7%
SAN FRANCISCO @ ARIZONA -13.5 -8.6 4.9 52.6%
CHICAGO @ TAMPA BAY 1 -0.5 1.5 50.0%
SEATTLE @ NEW ENGLAND -7.5 -7.7 -0.2 50.0%
GREEN BAY @ TENNESSEE 2.5 -2.1 -4.6 50.0%
HOUSTON @ JACKSONVILLE 1.5 1.4 -0.1 50.0%
MINNESOTA @ WASHINGTON -3 -3.1 -0.1 50.0%
DALLAS @ PITTSBURGH -2.5 -3.0 -0.5 49.7%
LOS ANGELES @ NY JETS -2 -3.8 -1.8 48.4%

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

2016 NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 9

Pick 1: KC -7 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Pittsburgh -2 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: NY Jets +3.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 4: Denver +1 incorrect NFL point spread pick

My computer finally broke. 8 years of crunching NFL data and two businesses later, my computer has passed away. Took me a while to get up to speed, still working on a few kinks, but at least I was able to transfer all data and models into another computer. Below are week 9 picks.

Staying at 18% of bankroll, each game gets a $460 bet. Go Cubs Go!...I wish you all successful sports investing this week!

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
JACKSONVILLE @ KANSAS CITY -7 -10.2 -3.2 62.7%
PITTSBURGH @ BALTIMORE 2 5.5 3.5 59.0%
NY JETS @ MIAMI -3.5 1.5 5.0 58.4%
DENVER @ OAKLAND -1 3.1 4.1 58.0%
DALLAS @ CLEVELAND 7.5 0.4 -7.1 55.6%
CAROLINA @ LOS ANGELES 3 4.9 1.9 54.3%
INDIANAPOLIS @ GREEN BAY -7.5 -13.8 -6.3 53.0%
BUFFALO @ SEATTLE -7 -7.6 -0.6 50.0%
NEW ORLEANS @ SAN FRANCISCO 4.5 4 -0.5 50.0%
PHILADELPHIA @ NY GIANTS -2.5 -4.1 -1.6 50.0%
TENNESSEE @ SAN DIEGO -5 -3.8 1.2 49.3%
DETROIT @ MINNESOTA -6 -8.8 -2.8 48.0%
ATLANTA @ TAMPA BAY 5 6.3 1.3 NA

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

2016 NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 8

Pick 1: Buffalo +6.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Detroit +2.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: Denver -4.5 correct NFL point spread pick

Another great week under our belts gets me pumped up for this week. I dislike betting against the top team according to ATS, but I also enjoy betting a homedog. Detroit should run and pass all over weakened Houston. Finally, Denver at home!

Increasing a bit more to 18% of bankroll, each game gets a $620 bet. Safe gambling!

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
NEW ENGLAND @ BUFFALO 6.5 4.7 -1.8 63.6%
DETROIT @ HOUSTON -2.5 2.5 5.0 59.7%
SAN DIEGO @ DENVER -4.5 -11.1 -6.6 58.8%
ARIZONA @ CAROLINA -2.5 -1.2 1.3 56.2%
GREEN BAY @ ATLANTA -3 2.2 5.2 56.0%
KANSAS CITY @ INDIANAPOLIS 3 5.8 2.8 55.3%
NY JETS @ CLEVELAND 3 7.8 4.8 53.1%
PHILADELPHIA @ DALLAS -4.5 4.1 8.6 51.6%
SEATTLE @ NEW ORLEANS 3 5 1.5 50.0%
OAKLAND @ TAMPA BAY 1 0.0 -1.0 50.0%
MINNESOTA @ CHICAGO 5.5 10.8 5.3 49.5%
JACKSONVILLE @ TENNESSEE -3 -3.5 -0.5 NA
CINCINNATI - WASHINGTON 3 -0.6 -3.6 NA

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

2016 NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 7

Pick 1: Cincinnati -9.5 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Oakland +1 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: Kansas City -6.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 4: Indianapolis +3 correct NFL point spread pick

Ok that was a better 2nd week of betting and we did get a bit lucky on the Rams pick. This week AJ Green will get 3 TDs and help my first pick (and fantasy football team). The Raiders bring back Murray and the Jaguars' streak will end with a team that finally wants to win. The Chiefs defense will come out and quiet Brees and win by more than a touchdown. Finally, Luck and Hilton are starting to sync and should score more against Tennessee.

Increasing a bit to 17% of bankroll, each game gets a $435 bet. Enjoy your bets!

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
CLEVELAND @ CINCINNATI -9.5 -15.8 -6.3 66.3%
OAKLAND @ JACKSONVILLE -1 1.6 2.6 65.7%
NEW ORLEANS @ KANSAS CITY -6.5 -10.6 -4.1 58.5%
INDIANAPOLIS @ TENNESSEE -3 1.5 4.5 58.1%
CHICAGO @ GREEN BAY -8 -12.6 -4.6 56.5%
HOUSTON @ DENVER -7.5 -6.4 1.1 54.8%
MINNESOTA @ PHILADELPHIA 2.5 4.5 2.0 53.2%
SAN DIEGO @ ATLANTA -6.5 -5.9 0.6 50.0%
TAMPA BAY @ SAN FRANCISCO 2 2.1 0.1 50.0%
NEW ENGLAND @ PITTSBURGH 7 6.1 -0.9 50.0%
BUFFALO @ MIAMI 3 9.3 6.3 49.7%
WASHINGTON @ DETROIT -1 -0.7 0.3 47.3%
SEATTLE @ ARIZONA -1.5 -9.9 -8.4 46.6%
BALTIMORE @ NY JETS -1 -7.6 -6.6 45.0%
NY GIANTS - LA RAMS 3 -5.6 -8.6 NA

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

2016 NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 6

Pick 1: Los Angeles +3.5 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Houston -3 PUSH
Pick 3: Denver -3.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 4: Buffalo -7 correct NFL point spread pick

Tough first pick given the Rams are last in offense and with lots of injuries on the defensive end. Given the spread is now over 3, this might be ok. The Colts beat the Bears last week, big deal. Houston defense will show up and tear them apart. When the Denver offense shows up (& w Trevor they might), there's no stopping them. The Chargers are making huge mistakes and the Broncos should take advantage and blowout this game. Finally, if Buffalo feeds McCoy and open the lanes for him they'll run all over the 49ers. Oh and is Kapernick starting for SF? If so then even better. Wait for 7 in case the spread creeps up or buy the half point if you can't get it at 7.

Again going with 15% of bankroll, each game gets a $375 bet. Happy gambling!

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
LOS ANGELES @ DETROIT -3.5 -0.9 2.6 61.1%
INDIANAPOLIS @ HOUSTON -3 -7.8 -4.8 60.6%
DENVER @ SAN DIEGO 3.5 6.1 2.6 58.2%
SAN FRANCISCO @ BUFFALO -7 -14.2 -7.2 57.0%
KANSAS CITY @ OAKLAND -1 5.0 6.0 55.9%
JACKSONVILLE @ CHICAGO -2.5 -5.9 -3.4 52.6%
CINCINNATI @ NEW ENGLAND -9.5 -8.1 1.4 50.0%
ATLANTA @ SEATTLE -6.5 -5.5 1.0 50.0%
NY JETS @ ARIZONA -8 -7.9 0.1 50.0%
CLEVELAND @ TENNESSEE -7 -6.7 0.3 50.0%
PHILADELPHIA @ WASHINGTON 3 -0.8 -3.8 49.7%
DALLAS @ GREEN BAY -4 -12.1 -8.1 48.0%
BALTIMORE @ NY GIANTS -3 -5.4 -2.4 39.6%
PITTSBURGH @ MIAMI 8 10.4 2.4 39.1%
CAROLINA @ NEW ORLEANS 3 6.0 3.0

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

2016 NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 5

Pick 1: New England -10.5 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Philadelphia -3.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: Minnesota -7 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 4: Denver -5 incorrect NFL point spread pick

NFL Pickles is back (one night late) and so is Tom Brady. We are starting by betting on the dynamic duo. If this team can blow out Houston without these two imagine what they will do to the Browns. Detroit has no passing game and their running game is struggling. Philadelphio is inspired by its rookie QB and will roll past the Lions. The Vikings defense is ranked second and it's going against a mediocre offense. The undefeated Vikings are still underrated and should cover the spread here. We're watching the MNF game spread shortly and will update if favorable.

Starting with 15% of bankroll, we're betting $375 on each game. Good luck!

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
NEW ENGLAND @ CLEVELAND 10.5 14.5 4.0 61.3%
PHILADELPHIA @ DETROIT 3.5 6.3 2.8 59.5%
HOUSTON @ MINNESOTA -7 -10.0 -3.0 58.7%
ATLANTA @ DENVER -5 -9.5 -4.5 57.0%
TENNESSEE @ MIAMI -3.5 2.1 5.6 56.0%
ARIZONA @ SAN FRANCISCO 3.5 7.0 2.5 55.7%
SAN DIEGO @ OAKLAND -3.5 -7.2 -3.7 55.1%
BUFFALO @ LOS ANGELES -2.5 -5.5 -3.0 55.1%
NY GIANTS @ GREEN BAY -7.5 -10.5 -3.0 54.5%
CHICAGO @ INDIANAPOLIS -4.5 -1.9 2.6 51.9%
NY JETS @ PITTSBURGH -7 2.1 9.1 51.6%
CINCINNATI @ DALLAS 1 12.8 11.8 50.0%
WASHINGTON @ BALTIMORE -4 0.4 4.4 48.7%
TAMPA BAY @ CAROLINA -12.6

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

Last Year Recap and This Year's Improvements

What can I do for you? It's the question many business ask their clients for customer retention. Most companies don't know the answer but for this blog the answer is easy. Accurate NFL spread predictions! Yet last year was one of the most horrendous years in my 8 year career doing this. It all started as a research project and now is a part-time job, a hobby, an obsession.

The Bad
Lets analyze last year's results and discuss what we'll be doing to improve accuracy and deliver great free picks to all of you. We ended with a miserable 46% ATS, week 14 went 0-4 and there were only two weeks with perfect 3-0 picks. Although we never bet the bottom 3 teams in terms of ATS Standings, we did losing bets on San Francisco, Atlanta, and Tampa Bay. Imagine if we would've bet on Minnesota and Cincinnati every week?!

The Good
From week 15 to the Super Bowl we went 14 of 21 for 67% ATS! That's a huge improvement and I did one major thing we've never done before that we'll continue doing this year. I started including an NFLpickles expert average into our models. That is, we took the top 15 handicappers from a site, scraped their average spread, included in our models to adjust our predictions. What this does is reassure a prediction of our that's accurate (something distant from the spread) and remove games that may seem good but after the prediction adjustments they do seem too close to the spread. Other things we'll do to improve:
  • Change the algorithms to treat outliers differently
  • Pick a pony (team) early on and bet on them more often
  • Integrate experts average spread into scoring models
I always want to give you more stats on historical information. Things like average passing yards difference for spread winners or  defensive stats. Stats that you can use to benchmark specific games. I need to spend time developing this and provide an easy interface. I'm trying to do something different than what you see on most sites which usually analyze a team's last 10 games.

The Ugly
This year, as we used to do, will not post official picks until week 5. I will run the data and give you results but I suggest waiting to week 5. Good luck! 

2015 NFL Point Spread Picks - Super Bowl 50

Pick: Denver +6 correct NFL point spread pick

I don't have any intuitively sane way to talk about this pick. Without looking at any predictions or statistical model results, I don't see how Carolina is not going to roll past the Broncos. A simple qualitative analysis would say: both defenses are not that different, the offenses are extremely different, therefore Carolina wins by a lot. Yet the spread is at 6 and it doesn't seem to move much more. But the numbers are the numbers and betting emotional picks have bit me in the ass way many times before. So close your eyes, bet Denver and prey that Peyton Manning does one final push to prove he's a hall of famer. Oh and wait til Sunday, the spread is not going lower, if anything it might creep up to a touchdown.

The bet will be 30% of bankroll which is about $1,500 for the game. Good luck!

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
DENVER - CAROLINA -6 -4.1 1.9 55.0%

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

2015 NFL Point Spreads - Conference Champioship Playoffs

Pick 1: New England -3 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Arizona +3 incorrect NFL point spread pick

This was probably the most exciting set of playoffs games in a week! Aaron Rodgers stole another perfect week for us. I just couldn't believe that Arizona won by 6 and not by 7 (and force the push). That's what makes this so interesting. I guess we got paid back with the last minute useless field goal by the Steelers. The Carolina/Seattle game got really interesting and nerve wrecking in the second half but ended on the right side.

This NFL Divisional playoff week is so obvious that it makes me nervous. Who in their minds would bet Denver and Peyton "noodle arm" Manning against the reigning champions? I almost don't care what the numbers say, but I'm glad that my models are picking the Patriots. The public is definitely seeing this bias by far as more than 70% of the money is going to the Patriots.

As for the Arizona game, I'm very surprised sixty something percent of the public is picking Carolina. Maybe because they haven't lost at home this year? Or because they were up 31-0 against a weak Seattle team? Seattle shouldn't have even been there if it wasn't for the Vikings kicker. I'm not convinced on Carolina. They've had close games with weak teams. Arizona is solid and I'm glad my statistical models are picking the Cardinals.

We continue betting to 35% of bankroll split evenly across the 2 picks to give us a bet of $1,300 per game. Slide in a parlay if I were you...

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
NEW ENGLAND @ DENVER 3 6.9 3.9 60.2%
ARIZONA @ CAROLINA -3 2.9 5.9 58.3%

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

2015 NFL Point Spread Picks - Divisional Playoffs

Pick 1: Carolina -2.5 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Arizona -7 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: Pittsburgh +7.5 correct NFL point spread pick

What an exciting first week of playoffs! The games were exhilarating to watch, except for the Houston/KC one. Of course it helps to go 3-0 to say how exciting the games were.

This week it's totally different. The biggest difference is having all home favorites vs last week only Washington was favorite. My picks also was favoring visiting teams but not this week. Pittsburgh is all beat up and Denver is starting Peyton, that should be a no pick. But 1) the model is picking PIT, 2) Ben and Antonio will probably play,a nd 3) Peyton sucks (and he can't take his drugs anymore). Arizona as a 7 point favorite seems high and most bets are on Green Bay, but beating Washington shouldn't suddenly make the Packers a Super Bowl team. Seattle looked terrible at Minnesota and it may have been the weather, but Carolina's winning consistency makes me more comfortable about this pick. Finally, I can't bet against the Patriots as 5 point favorites on the divisional round of the playoffs so that's my no bet of the week.

We continue betting to 35% of bankroll split evenly across the 3 picks to give us a bet of $765 per game.

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
SEATTLE @ CAROLINA -2.5 -5.2 -2.7 59.6%
PITTSBURGH @ DENVER -7.5 1 8.5 59.1%
GREEN BAY @ ARIZONA -7 -9.3 -2.3 58.1%
KANSAS CITY @ NEW ENGLAND -5 -6.5 -1.5 51.0%

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.