2016 NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 10

Pick 1: San Diego -4 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Denver +2.5 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: Philadelphia +1
Pick 4: Cincinnati +2.5 correct NFL point spread pick

I can't really talk. Still shocked about last week, what a week! Cubs win the World Series, Trump wins the White House and we go 0-4. Something's cursed! That sucked and it exposed my biggest fear, if the model really needs more weeks of data and only starts working later in the season. Idk, so we'll continue monitoring.

Staying at 18% of bankroll, each game gets a $400 bet. Happy gambling!

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
MIAMI @ SAN DIEGO -4 -8.8 -4.8 61.4%
DENVER @ NEW ORLEANS -2.5 -0.5 2.0 60.1%
ATLANTA @ PHILADELPHIA 1 -2.8 -3.8 59.4%
CINCINNATI @ NY GIANTS -2.5 -0.3 2.2 58.1%
KANSAS CITY @ CAROLINA -3 3.4 6.4 55.1%
CLEVELAND @ BALTIMORE -10 -7 3 54.7%
SAN FRANCISCO @ ARIZONA -13.5 -8.6 4.9 52.6%
CHICAGO @ TAMPA BAY 1 -0.5 1.5 50.0%
SEATTLE @ NEW ENGLAND -7.5 -7.7 -0.2 50.0%
GREEN BAY @ TENNESSEE 2.5 -2.1 -4.6 50.0%
HOUSTON @ JACKSONVILLE 1.5 1.4 -0.1 50.0%
MINNESOTA @ WASHINGTON -3 -3.1 -0.1 50.0%
DALLAS @ PITTSBURGH -2.5 -3.0 -0.5 49.7%
LOS ANGELES @ NY JETS -2 -3.8 -1.8 48.4%

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

7 comments:

fiftytwopointfour said...

Hey, you said that your computer broke last week, didn't you? And you run your numbers on your computer, right? So chalk the 0-4 result up to a broken computer. The fiftytwopointfour computer must have caught your computer's virus, going 1-3 last week. Seriously, though, a lot of statistics-based computer models have had a bad last couple of weeks - hopefully the NFL will go back to respecting math in the final half of the season.

:/

This week, fiftytwopointfour will bounce back with these winners:
Jaguars (+1)
Eagles (pick 'em)
Chargers/Dolphins (Under 48 1/2)
Eagles/Falcons (Under 50)

ND Fowler said...

GB/Tennessee (over 50)
Carolina (-3)
Washington (-3) (over 42)
NY jets (-2)
Chicago/Tampa (over 45.5)
San Diego (-4)
Dallas (+2.5)
New England (-7)

My ponies this week. Good luck!

Jaime Brugueras said...

Lol I was thinking of using that excuse, but the reality is that I was able to transfer all data and statistical code successfully to another computer.

Jaime Brugueras said...

The Atlanta pick is a typo. Numbers are right, but highlighting is wrong.

Jaime Brugueras said...

It is only fair that I don't count it as a win this week so it will be removed from consideration. Usually one of you tells me what's going on, what happened?

fiftytwopointfour said...

My two cents re the Eagles/Falcons miscue: your site is here to publicly track the viability and performance of your predictive computer model. Your site is not intended to measure the performance of your highlighting skills. If your model had the Eagles -2.8, take credit for the win. Just be sure to behave ethically and take a loss should the opposite happen in the future.

Removing the game from consideration is fair if others disagree.

Jaime Brugueras said...

I appreciate the comment. Someone tweeted me and I didn't respond because I didn't see it. Made mistake probably because I was building picks at midnight. It doesn't feel right taking the win. Oh and what a nail biter last night!