2016 NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 11

Pick 1: KC -7 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Dallas -7 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: New Orleans +3.5 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 4: Los Angeles +2.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick

At the top of the list we got two home favorites by 7. Expecting blowouts on both games and will get both games at -7. The NO/CAR is going to be close and NO has a good chance of stealing it from them even though Carolina's D is better than it was when they previously played. Finally the last one is being played in Mexico and so Los Angeles has a much bigger home advantage...lol. Just going with the numbers and avoiding emotions.

Staying at 18% of bankroll, each game gets a $400 bet. Get some wins!

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
TAMPA BAY @ KANSAS CITY -7 -10.3 -3.3 61.9%
BALTIMORE @ DALLAS -7 -11.4 -4.4 60.7%
NEW ORLEANS @ CAROLINA -3.5 0.4 3.9 58.4%
MIAMI @ LOS ANGELES 2.5 -2.3 -4.2 58.0%
ARIZONA @ MINNESOTA 1 -4.2 -5.2 54.3%
PITTSBURGH @ CLEVELAND 9 5.0 -4.0 53.7%
CHICAGO @ NY GIANTS -7.5 -4.8 2.7 50.8%
JACKSONVILLE @ DETROIT -6.5 -4.1 2.4 50.8%
PHILADELPHIA @ SEATTLE -6.5 -8.0 -1.5 50.0%
TENNESSEE @ INDIANAPOLIS -3 -2.9 0.1 50.0%
GREEN BAY @ WASHINGTON -2.5 -3.0 -0.5 50.0%
OAKLAND - HOUSTON 6 3 -3.0 49.1%
NEW ENGLAND @ SAN FRANCISCO 13 14.5 1.5 47.4%
BUFFALO @ CINCINNATI -3 -3.5 -0.5 46.5%

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

4 comments:

Brock Landers said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Brock Landers said...

You do know the Houston at Oakland game is being played in Mexico, right? Not the Miami at Los Angeles game...

fiftytwopointfour said...

Last week fiftytwopointfour went 2-2 on its picks posted here, then went 16-8 in all its picks NOT posted here. Oh well. Let's see if I can choose the right ones this week.

49ers (+13)
Eagles (+6.5)
Vikings (-2.5)
Steelers/Browns (Under 46)

I *really* like that under if the forecast for wind continues to top 25mph in Cleveland on Sunday.

Good luck, everyone!

Jaime Brugueras said...

Really nice spread comeback by NO last night to give us a nice start for the week. Thanks for that half point!