2015 NFL Point Spreads - Conference Champioship Playoffs

Pick 1: New England -3 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Arizona +3 incorrect NFL point spread pick

This was probably the most exciting set of playoffs games in a week! Aaron Rodgers stole another perfect week for us. I just couldn't believe that Arizona won by 6 and not by 7 (and force the push). That's what makes this so interesting. I guess we got paid back with the last minute useless field goal by the Steelers. The Carolina/Seattle game got really interesting and nerve wrecking in the second half but ended on the right side.

This NFL Divisional playoff week is so obvious that it makes me nervous. Who in their minds would bet Denver and Peyton "noodle arm" Manning against the reigning champions? I almost don't care what the numbers say, but I'm glad that my models are picking the Patriots. The public is definitely seeing this bias by far as more than 70% of the money is going to the Patriots.

As for the Arizona game, I'm very surprised sixty something percent of the public is picking Carolina. Maybe because they haven't lost at home this year? Or because they were up 31-0 against a weak Seattle team? Seattle shouldn't have even been there if it wasn't for the Vikings kicker. I'm not convinced on Carolina. They've had close games with weak teams. Arizona is solid and I'm glad my statistical models are picking the Cardinals.

We continue betting to 35% of bankroll split evenly across the 2 picks to give us a bet of $1,300 per game. Slide in a parlay if I were you...

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
NEW ENGLAND @ DENVER 3 6.9 3.9 60.2%
ARIZONA @ CAROLINA -3 2.9 5.9 58.3%

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

6 comments:

fiftytwopointfour said...

Congrats on your three-weekend winning streak, Jaime! The fiftytwopointfour model picked the opposite teams as you in the Conference Championships, though we aren't on the same hot streak as you so don't pay it much mind. It also picks the Unders in both games. Me, I'd stay away from betting anything this weekend and just enjoy the football.

Good luck everyone!

NBAComputerMan said...

Going for FIFTH straight NFL winner: CAROLINA -3 over Arizona... Follow me on Twitter at NBA_ComputerMan.

John Mullrooney said...

Keep the winning streak up Jaime.

Www.nflpicksbyme.com

is taking showing Den, Az as well as the under in the NE/Den game and over on Car/Az

Thanks

RealLine said...

It's tough picking a QB with a "noodle arm" but our one pick this week is:

DEN (+3.0)

Proost!

RealLine said...

A bunch of late money came in on the Broncos from the sharps. I doubt it made enough of a dent in the early NE betting wave for that not to have been a huge game for the books.

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