2015 NFL Point Spread Picks - Divisional Playoffs

Pick 1: Carolina -2.5 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Arizona -7 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: Pittsburgh +7.5 correct NFL point spread pick

What an exciting first week of playoffs! The games were exhilarating to watch, except for the Houston/KC one. Of course it helps to go 3-0 to say how exciting the games were.

This week it's totally different. The biggest difference is having all home favorites vs last week only Washington was favorite. My picks also was favoring visiting teams but not this week. Pittsburgh is all beat up and Denver is starting Peyton, that should be a no pick. But 1) the model is picking PIT, 2) Ben and Antonio will probably play,a nd 3) Peyton sucks (and he can't take his drugs anymore). Arizona as a 7 point favorite seems high and most bets are on Green Bay, but beating Washington shouldn't suddenly make the Packers a Super Bowl team. Seattle looked terrible at Minnesota and it may have been the weather, but Carolina's winning consistency makes me more comfortable about this pick. Finally, I can't bet against the Patriots as 5 point favorites on the divisional round of the playoffs so that's my no bet of the week.

We continue betting to 35% of bankroll split evenly across the 3 picks to give us a bet of $765 per game.

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
SEATTLE @ CAROLINA -2.5 -5.2 -2.7 59.6%
PITTSBURGH @ DENVER -7.5 1 8.5 59.1%
GREEN BAY @ ARIZONA -7 -9.3 -2.3 58.1%
KANSAS CITY @ NEW ENGLAND -5 -6.5 -1.5 51.0%

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

6 comments:

NBAComputerMan said...

Going for our 4th straight winner...Carolina -1.5 follow me @NBA_Computerman@gmail.com

Anthony Hardy said...

im taking seattle +2.5, arizona -7, Pittsburgh +7.5, and under 42.5 on NE/KC game. $500 each game.

Goodluck all

RealLine said...

Congrats on the big week last week Jaime.

This week we have two picks:

SEA (+1.5)
PIT (+7.5)

Proost!

John Mullrooney said...

www.nflpicksbyme.com for free ATS and Over/Under picks along with simulated results, playoff predictions, and Fantasy stat projections...

ATS: KC, AZ, Car, Pitt
O/U: KC Over, AZ Over, Car Under, Pitt Under.

NBAComputerMan said...

Jamie...Where are you getting +9 on Pitsburgh?.....

Jaime Brugueras said...

Only for a bit. I'll change this pick to 7.5