2016 NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 6

Pick 1: Los Angeles +3.5 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Houston -3 PUSH
Pick 3: Denver -3.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 4: Buffalo -7 correct NFL point spread pick

Tough first pick given the Rams are last in offense and with lots of injuries on the defensive end. Given the spread is now over 3, this might be ok. The Colts beat the Bears last week, big deal. Houston defense will show up and tear them apart. When the Denver offense shows up (& w Trevor they might), there's no stopping them. The Chargers are making huge mistakes and the Broncos should take advantage and blowout this game. Finally, if Buffalo feeds McCoy and open the lanes for him they'll run all over the 49ers. Oh and is Kapernick starting for SF? If so then even better. Wait for 7 in case the spread creeps up or buy the half point if you can't get it at 7.

Again going with 15% of bankroll, each game gets a $375 bet. Happy gambling!

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
LOS ANGELES @ DETROIT -3.5 -0.9 2.6 61.1%
INDIANAPOLIS @ HOUSTON -3 -7.8 -4.8 60.6%
DENVER @ SAN DIEGO 3.5 6.1 2.6 58.2%
SAN FRANCISCO @ BUFFALO -7 -14.2 -7.2 57.0%
KANSAS CITY @ OAKLAND -1 5.0 6.0 55.9%
JACKSONVILLE @ CHICAGO -2.5 -5.9 -3.4 52.6%
CINCINNATI @ NEW ENGLAND -9.5 -8.1 1.4 50.0%
ATLANTA @ SEATTLE -6.5 -5.5 1.0 50.0%
NY JETS @ ARIZONA -8 -7.9 0.1 50.0%
CLEVELAND @ TENNESSEE -7 -6.7 0.3 50.0%
PHILADELPHIA @ WASHINGTON 3 -0.8 -3.8 49.7%
DALLAS @ GREEN BAY -4 -12.1 -8.1 48.0%
BALTIMORE @ NY GIANTS -3 -5.4 -2.4 39.6%
PITTSBURGH @ MIAMI 8 10.4 2.4 39.1%
CAROLINA @ NEW ORLEANS 3 6.0 3.0

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

3 comments:

fiftytwopointfour said...

Welcome back, Jaime!

With some self-concern, I have to report that fiftytwopointfour only agrees with your Bills pick this week, otherwise we have the opposite teams. :/

After going 3-1 last week in our top picks (https://fiftytwopointfour.wordpress.com/2016/10/11/results-week-5-nfl-picks-against-the-point-spread-2/) we are hopeful for a strong season. Our top picks for week 6 are:

Saints (+3)
Chargers (+3)
Cardinals (-7.5)
Lions (-3)
Titans (-7)

Good luck, everyone!

dbb57304-6ea1-11e5-a243-4fb58a4eec8f said...

Jamie, how is the confidence percentage calculated? Is it based at all on the point spread differential? Thanks!

Jaime Brugueras said...

@52.4 Oh no! I like it when stars and our picks align. I hope you're wrong! We'll start seeing tonight.

Confidence percentage is calculated based on the scenario which is defined by the spread and where the prediction fell in comparison to the spread. Back tracking that years gives us these percentages.