2015 NFL Point Spread Picks - Super Bowl 50

Pick: Denver +6 correct NFL point spread pick

I don't have any intuitively sane way to talk about this pick. Without looking at any predictions or statistical model results, I don't see how Carolina is not going to roll past the Broncos. A simple qualitative analysis would say: both defenses are not that different, the offenses are extremely different, therefore Carolina wins by a lot. Yet the spread is at 6 and it doesn't seem to move much more. But the numbers are the numbers and betting emotional picks have bit me in the ass way many times before. So close your eyes, bet Denver and prey that Peyton Manning does one final push to prove he's a hall of famer. Oh and wait til Sunday, the spread is not going lower, if anything it might creep up to a touchdown.

The bet will be 30% of bankroll which is about $1,500 for the game. Good luck!

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
DENVER - CAROLINA -6 -4.1 1.9 55.0%

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

7 comments:

fiftytwopointfour said...

Good luck!

Prediction: Panthers 24, Broncos 19

(Broncos +6 and the Under 45)

John Mullrooney said...

www.nflpicksbyme.com has Panthers 24 Broncos 18.

Recommendation is Carolina and Under

RealLine said...

Jaime, I'm glad we're on the same side of the Super Bowl. We picked up DEN (+6.0) earlier in the week.

While the line may go above +6 in the last hours before the game when everything goes crazy I don't think it's going to be the case that most casual bettors will be able to get better than that. The money line has been heavily trending towards Denver since last weekend and the spread has been going that way too.

Proost!

RealLine said...

Congrats to all with the fun finish today. Fun 2015 season and I'm sure you'll be back on the winning side of the season next year Jaime.

Our final totals for the year's picks are:

48-26 (64.9%)

Above our average so we're very happy.

Proost!

Jaime Brugueras said...

6-3 playoff ending, not bad. Great Super Bowl 50! Hard to watch Manning play that way. Until next year...

Thank you all for your comments, you really made this a much better place to visit (given the picks weren't that great during the season). Thanks again.

Jaime

fiftytwopointfour said...

Jaime, congrats on the strong finish, and for also offering the only respectful comments section on the Internet! Your model will bounce back next year.

RealLine & others, congrats on the strong season!

As for us, fiftytwopointfour finished the postseason on an up note (winning 5 of the last 6 picks) to bring our season+postseason totals to a 52.5% win rate for picks against the spread and a surprising 56.7% win rate in our first season picking against the totals for every game this year.

Enjoy the offseason, gentlemen, hope it goes fast.

RealLine said...

Hey folks. Just a heads up that we have a series of blog posts giving season win predictions for each team in the 2016 season based on our math model. Every week we go over a division.

You can read things here: https://blog.therealline.com/