2016 NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 7

Pick 1: Cincinnati -9.5 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Oakland +1 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: Kansas City -6.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 4: Indianapolis +3 correct NFL point spread pick

Ok that was a better 2nd week of betting and we did get a bit lucky on the Rams pick. This week AJ Green will get 3 TDs and help my first pick (and fantasy football team). The Raiders bring back Murray and the Jaguars' streak will end with a team that finally wants to win. The Chiefs defense will come out and quiet Brees and win by more than a touchdown. Finally, Luck and Hilton are starting to sync and should score more against Tennessee.

Increasing a bit to 17% of bankroll, each game gets a $435 bet. Enjoy your bets!

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
CLEVELAND @ CINCINNATI -9.5 -15.8 -6.3 66.3%
OAKLAND @ JACKSONVILLE -1 1.6 2.6 65.7%
NEW ORLEANS @ KANSAS CITY -6.5 -10.6 -4.1 58.5%
INDIANAPOLIS @ TENNESSEE -3 1.5 4.5 58.1%
CHICAGO @ GREEN BAY -8 -12.6 -4.6 56.5%
HOUSTON @ DENVER -7.5 -6.4 1.1 54.8%
MINNESOTA @ PHILADELPHIA 2.5 4.5 2.0 53.2%
SAN DIEGO @ ATLANTA -6.5 -5.9 0.6 50.0%
TAMPA BAY @ SAN FRANCISCO 2 2.1 0.1 50.0%
NEW ENGLAND @ PITTSBURGH 7 6.1 -0.9 50.0%
BUFFALO @ MIAMI 3 9.3 6.3 49.7%
WASHINGTON @ DETROIT -1 -0.7 0.3 47.3%
SEATTLE @ ARIZONA -1.5 -9.9 -8.4 46.6%
BALTIMORE @ NY JETS -1 -7.6 -6.6 45.0%
NY GIANTS - LA RAMS 3 -5.6 -8.6 NA

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

4 comments:

fiftytwopointfour said...

This is another week where our models don't see eye-to-eye. Fiftytwopointfour has the opposite side of each of your top four picks, Jaime. Hopefully we align soon!

Fiftytwopointfour's top 5 picks went 3-1-1 last week. This week, our most confident picks are:

Ravens (+1)
49ers (+2.5)
Titans (-2.5)
Rams (+2.5)

Good luck, everyone!

Jaime Brugueras said...

At least none of my top 4 games coincide with your top 4 games

ND Fowler said...

Great picks Jaime.

Jaime Brugueras said...

Thanks. Wish I had gotten 6 for KC somewhere else or bought the half point. Hope you did.