2016 NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 13

Pick 1: Washington +2.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: New Orleans -5.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: Miami +3.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 4: Denver -4 correct NFL point spread pick

Another tough week last week. At this point, I've given up on a good record for the regular season but really hoping to turn it around and have a great ending like last year. If you recall, last year the turnaround happened in week 15 to then go 8-2 during the playoffs. Anyways, this week we're going with 3 road teams and a home favorite.

Staying at 18% of bankroll, each game gets a $350 bet. Lets turn this around now.

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
WASHINGTON @ ARIZONA -2.5 0.6 3.1 60.4%
DETROIT @ NEW ORLEANS -5.5 -10.8 -5.3 59.8%
MIAMI @ BALTIMORE -3.5 -0.4 3.1 58.1%
DENVER @ JACKSONVILLE 4 7.9 3.9 58.1%
CAROLINA @ SEATTLE -6.5 -12.2 -5.7 55.0%
NY GIANTS @ PITTSBURGH -6 -3.0 3.0 54.8%
DALLAS @ MINNESOTA 3.5 4.8 1.3 53.1%
TAMPA BAY @ SAN DIEGO -3.5 -5.5 -2.0 51.4%
HOUSTON @ GREEN BAY -6.5 -12.1 -5.6 51.0%
BUFFALO @ OAKLAND -3 -5.2 -2.2 50.0%
SAN FRANCISCO @ CHICAGO -1.5 1.9 3.4 50.0%
KANSAS CITY @ ATLANTA -3.5 -10.3 -9.8 49.5%
INDIANAPOLIS @ NY JETS 1 -1.8 -2.8 49.4%
LOS ANGELES @ NEW ENGLAND -13.5 -12.7 0.8 48.3%
PHILADELPHIA @ CINCINNATI 1 -4.4 -5.4 NA

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

1 comments:

fiftytwopointfour said...

Jaime, I joined you with a lousy 1-3 record for the picks that I posted on here last week, and just 15-14-1 on all the games last week (point spread + over/unders). Good attitude, though. Believe in your model!

This week, fiftytwopointfour has the most confidence in:

Jaguars (+5)
Chargers/Bucs (Under 47.5)
Cowboys/Vikings (Over 43.5)
Steelers/Giants (Under 49)