2016 NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 9

Pick 1: KC -7 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Pittsburgh -2 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: NY Jets +3.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 4: Denver +1 incorrect NFL point spread pick

My computer finally broke. 8 years of crunching NFL data and two businesses later, my computer has passed away. Took me a while to get up to speed, still working on a few kinks, but at least I was able to transfer all data and models into another computer. Below are week 9 picks.

Staying at 18% of bankroll, each game gets a $460 bet. Go Cubs Go!...I wish you all successful sports investing this week!

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
JACKSONVILLE @ KANSAS CITY -7 -10.2 -3.2 62.7%
PITTSBURGH @ BALTIMORE 2 5.5 3.5 59.0%
NY JETS @ MIAMI -3.5 1.5 5.0 58.4%
DENVER @ OAKLAND -1 3.1 4.1 58.0%
DALLAS @ CLEVELAND 7.5 0.4 -7.1 55.6%
CAROLINA @ LOS ANGELES 3 4.9 1.9 54.3%
INDIANAPOLIS @ GREEN BAY -7.5 -13.8 -6.3 53.0%
BUFFALO @ SEATTLE -7 -7.6 -0.6 50.0%
NEW ORLEANS @ SAN FRANCISCO 4.5 4 -0.5 50.0%
PHILADELPHIA @ NY GIANTS -2.5 -4.1 -1.6 50.0%
TENNESSEE @ SAN DIEGO -5 -3.8 1.2 49.3%
DETROIT @ MINNESOTA -6 -8.8 -2.8 48.0%
ATLANTA @ TAMPA BAY 5 6.3 1.3 NA

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

1 comments:

fiftytwopointfour said...

Sorry about your computer problems, Jaime. I neglected to post fiftytwopointfour's picks last week, but had I, would have probably picked games that went 1-2-1.

This week, we have:
Dolphins (-3.5)
Eagles (+2.5)
Packers/Colts (Under 54)
Vikings/Lions (Over 41)

Good luck!

P.S. GO CUBS GO, indeed! What a great regular season, topped only by an exciting playoff run, topped only by a scintillating World Series, topped only by a nail-biting and historic Game 7!!