2016 NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 5

Pick 1: New England -10.5 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Philadelphia -3.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: Minnesota -7 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 4: Denver -5 incorrect NFL point spread pick

NFL Pickles is back (one night late) and so is Tom Brady. We are starting by betting on the dynamic duo. If this team can blow out Houston without these two imagine what they will do to the Browns. Detroit has no passing game and their running game is struggling. Philadelphio is inspired by its rookie QB and will roll past the Lions. The Vikings defense is ranked second and it's going against a mediocre offense. The undefeated Vikings are still underrated and should cover the spread here. We're watching the MNF game spread shortly and will update if favorable.

Starting with 15% of bankroll, we're betting $375 on each game. Good luck!

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
NEW ENGLAND @ CLEVELAND 10.5 14.5 4.0 61.3%
PHILADELPHIA @ DETROIT 3.5 6.3 2.8 59.5%
HOUSTON @ MINNESOTA -7 -10.0 -3.0 58.7%
ATLANTA @ DENVER -5 -9.5 -4.5 57.0%
TENNESSEE @ MIAMI -3.5 2.1 5.6 56.0%
ARIZONA @ SAN FRANCISCO 3.5 7.0 2.5 55.7%
SAN DIEGO @ OAKLAND -3.5 -7.2 -3.7 55.1%
BUFFALO @ LOS ANGELES -2.5 -5.5 -3.0 55.1%
NY GIANTS @ GREEN BAY -7.5 -10.5 -3.0 54.5%
CHICAGO @ INDIANAPOLIS -4.5 -1.9 2.6 51.9%
NY JETS @ PITTSBURGH -7 2.1 9.1 51.6%
CINCINNATI @ DALLAS 1 12.8 11.8 50.0%
WASHINGTON @ BALTIMORE -4 0.4 4.4 48.7%
TAMPA BAY @ CAROLINA -12.6

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

4 comments:

paul lechiara said...

Good to see you back. I'll share my picks on your site based off my math also. Hopefully we are on the same page.
Cheers,
Paul

RealLine said...

Welcome back and best of luck this week.

Proost!

paul lechiara said...

I'm in agreement on your picks except for New England. My data shows a much closer game even with Brady back.
Good luck to all

Jaime Brugueras said...

10 points away it's tough. Who knows how Brady Gronk will play. I'm impressed how they've played without them.