2014 NFL Betting Picks - Week 17

Pick 1: Detroit +7.5
Pick 2: San Diego -1
Pick 3: Carolina +3
I'm not sure how I'm still above 50%. It's been 3 losing weeks in a row and 4 of the last 5. It wasn't until week 10 perfect picks that I haven't seen profits. The disappointment is unbearing. Need to snap this streak big time.

This week we have 3 premium picks and we are keeping the bankroll at 25%. This gives us a bet of $650 per game for this week.

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
DETROIT @ GREEN BAY	-7.5	-1.2	6.3	61.7%
SAN DIEGO @ KANSAS CITY	1	4.5	3.5	59.6%
CAROLINA @ ATLANTA	-3	7.3	10.3	58.9%
CINCINNATI @ PITTSBURGH	-3.5	6.7	10.2	55.2%
INDIANAPOLIS @ TENNESSEE	7	19.1	12.1	54.5%
NEW ORLEANS @ TAMPA BAY	4	7.2	3.2	53.8%
PHILADELPHIA @ NY GIANTS	-2.5	6.0	8.5	52.9%
DALLAS @ WASHINGTON	4	2.9	-1.1	52.1%
OAKLAND @ DENVER	-14	-18.6	-4.6	51.8%
ST LOUIS @ SEATTLE	-12	-15.5	-3.5	50.8%
ARIZONA @ SAN FRANCISCO	-6.5	-3.5	3.0	50.0%
CHICAGO @ MINNESOTA	-6	-6.2	-0.2	50.0%
BUFFALO @ NEW ENGLAND	-5	-11.7	-6.7	50.0%
CLEVELAND @ BALTIMORE	-13.5	-13.0	0.5	49.7%
NY JETS @ MIAMI	-6	-9.9	-3.9	49.0%
JACKSONVILLE @ HOUSTON	-9.5	-16.8	-7.3	46.1%

How to read the table:

• Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
• Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
• Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
• Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

2014 NFL Betting Picks - Week 16

Pick 1: San Diego +1
Pick 2: Indianapolis +3
Pick 3: Arizona +9
Pick 4: Denver -3
Another miserable week for this picks as the picks went again 1-2. Should have not bet against Denver. I'm adjusting a few parameters this week based on some back testing I did over the week. Excuse me for not posting the picks before Thursday. I'm still confident the system works, so hoping that from now on and especially during the playoffs, we come out winning big to recover and finish the year in good shape.

This week we have 4 premium picks and we are keeping the bankroll at 25%. This gives us a bet of $560 per game for this week. I also like and stats back me up on KC, CHI, NE and CLE.

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
SAN DIEGO @ SAN FRANCISCO	-1	3.9	4.9	66.7%
INDIANAPOLIS @ DALLAS	-3	3.7	6.7	59.1%
SEATTLE @ ARIZONA	9	3.1	-5.9	57.5%
DENVER @ CINCINNATI	3	6.4	3.4	57.1%
ATLANTA @ NEW ORLEANS	-6.5	-9.4	-2.9	56.3%
KANSAS CITY @ PITTSBURGH	-3	11.3	14.3	55.8%
BALTIMORE @ HOUSTON	6	1.9	-4.1	54.4%
MINNESOTA @ MIAMI	-6.5	-6.7	-0.2	50.0%
DETROIT @ CHICAGO	9.5	5.6	-3.9	50.0%
CLEVELAND @ CAROLINA	-4	0.4	4.4	50.0%
PHILADELPHIA @ WASHINGTON	8	8.2	0.2	50.0%
NY GIANTS @ ST LOUIS	-6.5	-4.8	1.7	49.2%
NEW ENGLAND @ NY JETS	10.5	25.3	14.8	48.2%
GREEN BAY @ TAMPA BAY	12	10.0	-2.0	47.5%
BUFFALO @ OAKLAND	6.5	6.9	0.4	47.0%

How to read the table:

• Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
• Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
• Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
• Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

2014 NFL Betting Picks - Week 15

Pick 1: Washington +7
Pick 2: San Diego +4.5
Pick 3: New England -7.5

Last week our picks went 1-2. Got lucky that Minnesota scored a touchdown in overtime and pushed. Chicago was a bad bet, especially now that Marshall is out. Seattle was a good bet and Cincinnati bombed.

This week we have 3 premium picks and we are going to up the bankroll to 25%. Being at pretty much break-even level and the season approaching its end, I want to end with a bang (or a boom). This gives us a bet of $815 per game for this week. Honorable mentions that the computer-based picked were Dallas although I've already made that mistake during Thanksgiving so it sounds like a good one to shy away. Carolina and Cincinnati but both game have new QBs. Detroit looks tempting as well. That's it for now. Thank you everyone for all the constructive comments, I've been learning a lot from you guys. Thanks and good luck to everyone.

P

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
WASHINGTON @ NY GIANTS	-7	-1.5	5.5	62.3%
DENVER @ SAN DIEGO	4.5	-1.0	-5.5	59.5%
MIAMI @ NEW ENGLAND	-7.5	-15.1	-7.6	59.5%
MINNESOTA @ DETROIT	-8	-8.6	-0.6	56.3%
NEW ORLEANS @ CHICAGO	3	0.8	-2.2	54.5%
PITTSBURGH @ ATLANTA	2.5	-1.8	-4.3	54.4%
OAKLAND @ KANSAS CITY	-10	-15.9	-5.9	54.1%
HOUSTON @ INDIANAPOLIS	-7	-9.8	-2.8	54.1%
TAMPA BAY @ CAROLINA	-3.5	-5.5	-2.0	52.0%
SAN FRANCISCO @ SEATTLE	-10	-10.5	0.5	50.0%
CINCINNATI @ CLEVELAND	-1	6.0	7.0	50.0%
JACKSONVILLE @ BALTIMORE	-14	-19.0	-5.0	49.7%
GREEN BAY @ BUFFALO	6	-3.7	-9.7	48.5%
ARIZONA @ ST LOUIS	-4.5	4.5	9.0	48.2%
NY JETS @ TENNESSEE	2	1.6	-0.4	47.5%

How to read the table:

• Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
• Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
• Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
• Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

2014 NFL Betting Picks - Week 14

Pick 1: Cincinnati -3.5
Pick 2: Seattle +1
Pick 3: Chicago +3.5
Pick 4: Minnesota -6 PUSH

Last week our picks went 3-2. The San Diego pick and win was a classic Vegas moment. Down by 9 and everything went perfectly for them to get the win. On the other hand, New England's missed field goal was also classic but didn't go in our favor. I wasn't even sure they would go for the field goal, they did and saw the opportunity, but then the miss changed everything. Dallas was a bad pick in retrospect, but Denver was almost an obvious pick. Now that the RB can pick up when Payton doesn't deliver gives me more confidence in the Broncos. I need the models to better predict the blowouts. This week was the Rams beating the Raiders by 52 points and the Colts cruising at home against the Redskins.

This week we have 4 premium picks starting with the Thursday night game at Soldier Field and the rest. Honorary mentions for picks that didn't make the premium cut were the two big underdogs. Atlanta's playing the red hot Packers at Lambeau on Monday night. That's a hard pick to make. Carolina is one of the worst teams in my opinion and I've lost enough bets on them this year so I'm out of that one too. This week we keep the bankroll to use 20% split evenly across the 4 NFL games, giving us a bet of about $520 per game. Below are the computer-based NFL point spread predictions.

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
PITTSBURGH @ CINCINNATI	-3.5	-10.1	-6.6	61.0%
SEATTLE @ PHILADEPHIA	-1	7.5	8.5	60.1%
DALLAS @ CHICAGO	3.5	0.1	-3.4	58.6%
NY JETS @ MINNESOTA	-6	-7	-1	58.3%
ATLANTA @ GREEN BAY	-12.5	-8.8	3.7	56.3%
CAROLINA @ NEW ORLEANS	-10	-6.8	3.2	55.3%
BUFFALO @ DENVER	-10	-15.4	-5.4	54.1%
TAMPA BAY @ DETROIT	-10	-11.1	-1.1	54.0%
INDIANAPOLIS @ CLEVELAND	4.5	12.2	7.7	53.9%
NEW ENGLAND @ SAN DIEGO	4	6.5	2.5	52.5%
BALTIMORE @ MIAMI	-3	-4.3	-1.3	50.0%
KANSAS CITY @ ARIZONA	-1.5	-0.3	1.2	50.0%
ST LOUIS @ WASHINGTON	3	-2.9	-5.9	49.9%
NY GIANTS @ TENNESSEE	1.5	-0.1	-1.6	49.5%
SAN FRANCISCO @ OAKLAND	9	6.9	-2.1	48.5%
HOUSTON @ JACKSONVILLE	5.5	5.9	0.4	48.2%

How to read the table:

• Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
• Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
• Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
• Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

2014 NFL Betting Picks - Week 13

Pick 1: Denver -2
Pick 2: Seattle +1
Pick 3: San Diego -4.5
Pick 4: Dallas -3
Pick 5: New England +3

I have no regrets regarding the picks last week. They were solid picks, no emotions, pure data and the right ones given the situation. New England of course was the right pick and also a blowout. Denver should have pull that one off and so should KC. I still think weather wasn't the tipping big factor. Like some of the comments in the post last week, I can't expect to win every week although it would be nice. Models can't and won't account for everything, but one tries to determine the key variables that do drive the predictions and in the long run it should work and pay off. We're now going to week 13 which means that there are still 4 weeks in the regular season and then the playoffs. Plenty of time to come out with huge gains!

This week we have 5 premium picks. I have to get them out on Monday as I will be traveling without my data-crunching computer. Usually too many picks for my taste but it is what it is. I have lost betting Denver the last two weeks and KC is a homedog. SF at home by 1. The SD/BAL makes me a little nervous given that I don't know where the line is, but if I can't remove it. Finally, NE is going to Lambeau. There is one free computer-based predictions that doesn't look too bad and that's Carolina. We have two Thanksgiving night game and two day games on Sunday. Some notable mentions in the free picks include Arizona and Cleveland. This week we raise the bankroll to use 20% split evenly across the 5 NFL games, giving us a bet of about $400 per game. Below is our table with free NFL point spread predictions.

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
DENVER @ KANSAS CITY	2	5.2	3.2	62.5%
SEATTLE @ SAN FRANCISCO	-1	1.7	2.7	61.0%
SAN DIEGO @ BALTIMORE	-4.5	0.9	5.4	59.3%
PHILADEPHIA @ DALLAS	-3	-7.0	-4.0	58.3%
NEW ENGLAND @ GREEN BAY	-3	4.7	7.7	58.1%
CAROLINA @ MINNESOTA	-2.5	2.1	4.4	56.5%
NY GIANTS @ JACKSONVILLE	3	0.4	-2.6	55.8%
OAKLAND @ ST LOUIS	-7	-7.7	-0.7	54.8%
NEW ORLEANS @ PITTSBURGH	-3	-4.8	-1.8	52.1%
CLEVELAND @ BUFFALO	-1.5	-7.0	-5.5	50.0%
ARIZONA @ ATLANTA	2.5	12.3	9.8	50.0%
CINCINNATI @ TAMPA BAY	4	12.6	8.6	49.9%
WASHINGTON @ INDIANAPOLIS	-10	-10.1	-0.1	48.4%
CHICAGO @ DETROIT	-7	-4.1	2.9	48.2%
TENNESSEE @ HOUSTON	-6	-9.9	-3.9	47.0%

How to read the table:

• Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
• Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
• Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
• Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

2014 NFL Betting Picks - Week 12

Pick 1: Denver -7.5
Pick 2: Kansas City -7
Pick 3: New England -7

Every week is a learning experience. In retrospect, the New Orleans pick was a bad one given that the difference between prediction and vegas was small and when tinkering with the weights a bit, it would provide much different results. This means that the model was relying to heavily on recent success for the Saints. The Denver pick I think was the right one given the circumstance. I was a bit shocked with not the cover but the straight up win. I smelled blood in the Sunday night and Monday night game and again looking back I should have notified you through Twitter to go at if you had the chance. It wouldn't have changed the results here, but meant to tell you that I felt more comfortable with those picks than the confidence explained. Anyways, after this week we are at 56.8% ATS for the season and 8.1% ROI.

This week we have 3 solid premium picks. There are some free computer-based predictions that don't look too bad either. We have the Thurday night game and two day games on Sunday. Some notable mentions in the free picks include Arizona and Cleveland. This week we again use 18% of bankroll split evenly across our 3 premium games giving us a bet of about $650 per game. Below is our table with free NFL point spread predictions.

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
MIAMI @ DENVER	-7.5	-14.7	-7.2	62.9%
KANSAS CITY @ OAKLAND	7	-15.6	-8.6	58.6%
DETROIT @ NEW ENGLAND	-7	-12.3	-5.3	58.0%
ARIZONA @ SEATTLE	-6	-2.2	3.8	57.4%
CLEVELAND @ ATLANTA	-3.5	-1.4	2.1	55.6%
CINCINNATI @ HOUSTON	-1.5	2.4	3.9	55.3%
JACKSONVILLE @ INDIANAPOLIS	-14	-18.6	-4.6	54.3%
BALTIMORE @ NEW ORLEANS	-3	1.7	4.7	53.8%
TAMPA BAY @ CHICAGO	-6	-7.4	-1.4	52.5%
GREEN BAY @ MINNESOTA	10	8.3	-1.7	50.0%
WASHINGTON @ SAN FRANCISCO	-9	-7.3	1.7	50.0%
ST LOUIS @ SAN DIEGO	-5	-6.6	-1.6	50.0%
DALLAS @ NY GIANTS	3.5	4.5	1.0	49.2%
NY JETS @ BUFFALO	-4.5	-5.1	-0.6	48.7%
TENNESSEE @ PHILADELPHIA	-11	-15.9	-4.9	47.3%

How to read the table:

• Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
• Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
• Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
• Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

2014 NFL Betting Picks - Week 11

Pick 1: New Orleans -7
Pick 2: Denver -10
Pick 3: San Francisco -4.5

Perfect week last week! The picks couldn't have gone any better. We finished 3-0 ATS with two of the picks being huge blowouts. This puts us at 58% ATS for the season and 16% ROI. As happy as I was for the perfect picks, I was disappointed with my Bears and their humiliating loss against the Packers. I will continue to work hard for you and provide more great weeks like this one.

This week we have again 3 picks over the 58% confidence threshold. These three picks are only available to premium members. All other computer-based NFL picks are free to everyone. Some noteables mention in the free picks include Arizona and Minnesota. But although the models are pointing their way, Calvin Johnson and Adrian Peterson are not well accounted for in these games (so probably just better to stick with the premium picks). This week we again use 18% of bankroll split evenly across our 3 premium games giving us a bet of about $675 per game. Below is our table with free NFL point spread predictions.

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
CINCINNATI @ NEW ORLEANS	-7	-9.4	-2.4	61.2%
DENVER @ ST LOUIS	10	15.5	5.5	59.3%
SAN FRANCISCO @ NY GIANTS	4.5	7.8	3.3	58.0%
DETROIT @ ARIZONA	-1.5	-7.5	-6.0	56.3%
MINNESOTA @ CHICAGO	-3.5	-2.4	1.1	54.7%
NEW ENGLAND @ INDIANAPOLIS	-2.5	-0.9	1.6	53.6%
PITTSBURGH @ TENNESSEE	6	0.7	-5.3	52.9%
SEATTLE @ KANSAS CITY	-1	-4.7	-3.7	52.3%
ATLANTA @ CAROLINA	-2	-6.0	-4.0	50.6%
BUFFALO @ MIAMI	-5.5	-3.9	1.6	50.0%
PHILADELPHIA @ GREEN BAY	-6	9.5	15.5	50.0%
TAMPA BAY @ WASHINGTON	-7	-11.5	-4.5	50.0%
HOUSTON @ CLEVELAND	-3.5	0.2	3.7	49.7%
OAKLAND @ SAN DIEGO	-10	-12.4	-2.4	48.2%

How to read the table:

• Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
• Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
• Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
• Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

2014 NFL Betting Picks - Week 10

Pick 1: Denver -12
Pick 2: Philadelphia -6
Pick 3: Arizona -7

That was a great bounce back with a 3-1 ATS. The one loss was way off with Miami destroying the sinking Chargers, but at least in only counts as one loss. Indianapolis also bounced back with strength as they dominated the Giants on the road. Staying on course with the data and not being influenced by emotions and recent games is important to any bettor. This week we also have 3 solid NFL picks. The models are unanimously picking these teams and picks. As always, below is the list of free NFL point spread picks for the non-premium picks and members should be receiving the premium picks shortly.

This week we again use 18% of bankroll split evenly across our 3 premium games giving us a bet of about $600 per game. You can see that so far we've had better success in the front half of the season where bankroll was around 12%-15% and now it's been consistently at 18%. This explains why we have hardly any ROI but the ATS is at 54.8%. See below for a list for free NFL point spread predictions. The 4 premium picks have already been sent to all premium members.

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
DENVER @ OAKLAND	12	20.2	8.2	60.6%
CAROLINA @ PHILADELPHIA	-6	-11.8	-5.8	58.4%
ST LOUIS @ ARIZONA	-7	-12.5	-5.5	58.4%
SAN FRANCISCO @ NEW ORLEANS	-5	1.2	6.2	55.5%
PITTSBURGH @ NY JETS	6	3.7	-2.3	55.3%
CHICAGO @ GREEN BAY	-7.5	-2.3	5.2	55.0%
TENNESSEE @ BALTIMORE	-10	-13.0	-3.0	53.8%
KANSAS CITY @ BUFFALO	2.5	9.9	7.4	52.8%
NY GIANTS @ SEATTLE	-9.5	-15.9	-6.4	50.0%
MIAMI @ DETROIT	-3	1.5	4.5	50.0%
DALLAS - JACKSONVILLE	6.5	4.8	-1.7	49.7%
CLEVELAND @ CINCINNATI	-6.5	-10.9	-4.4	49.5%
ATLANTA @ TAMPA BAY	1.5	-6.5	-8.0	48.3%

How to read the table:

• Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
• Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
• Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
• Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

2014 NFL Betting Picks - Week 9

Pick 1: San Diego +1.5
Pick 2: Indianapolis -3
Pick 3: Philadelphia -2
Pick 4: Kansas City -9.5
Two losing weeks in a row starts to get me a bit nervous. Regardless of the long-term strategy, we need to pick up the pace this week with 4 solid picks. I felt that all three picks last week were the right ones given the circumstances and the data. This week I'm also feeling comfortable with the games that were selected by the probability of covering the spread as well as the final pick. Below you will find the free nfl point spread picks for the non-premium picks and members should be receiving the premium picks shortly.

This week we again use 18% of bankroll split evenly across our 4 premium games giving us a bet of about $420 per game. Below are the computer-based NFL point spread predictions for week 9 of the NFL:

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
SAN DIEGO @ MIAMI	-1	3.9	4.9	61.0%
INDIANAPOLIS @ NY GIANTS	3	8.4	5.4	60.8%
PHILADELPHIA @ HOUSTON	2.5	5.5	3.0	58.5%
NY JETS @ KANSAS CITY	-10	-23.6	-13.6	57.5%
OAKLAND @ SEATTLE	-15	-20.0	-5.0	54.3%
DENVER @ NEW ENGLAND	3	6.3	3.3	54.1%
WASHINGTON @ MINNESOTA	0	2.9	2.9	50.0%
TAMPA BAY @ CLEVELAND	-6.5	-5.8	0.7	50.0%
BALTIMORE @ PITTSBURGH	0	2.3	2.3	50.0%
ARIZONA @ DALLAS	-3.5	0.1	3.6	49.7%
NEW ORLEANS @ CAROLINA	3	-5.0	-8.0	49.1%
JACKSONVILLE @ CINCINNATI	-11	-18.5	-7.5	48.4%

How to read the table:

• Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
• Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
• Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
• Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

2014 NFL Betting Picks - Week 8

Pick 1: Cincinnati -1
Pick 2: Indianapolis -3.5
Pick 3: Green Bay +1
Everybody calm down. That's what my friend reminded me to do after Sunday night. I was extremely disappointed with last week's results, as you probably were. The important thing to remember is that this is a long term strategy and the goal is to win money in the long run (end of the year). Although at this point we're back were we started, there is still a lot of football to be played and good money to potentially win. I've been here before and have bounced back. This week I removed the night games from being premium to provide the maximum number of free NFL point spread picks .

This week we use 18% of bankroll again split evenly across our 3 premium games giving us a bet of about $600 per game. Below are the computer-based NFL point spread predictions for week 8:

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
BALTIMORE @ CINCINNATI	-1	-6.0	-5.0	65.7%
INDIANAPOLIS @ PITTSBURGH	3.5	9.5	6.0	62.7%
GREEN BAY @ NEW ORLEANS	-1	3.0	4.0	59.6%
SEATTLE @ CAROLINA	5	2.6	-2.4	55.3%
CHICAGO @ NEW ENGLAND	-6.5	-8.0	-1.5	54.3%
DETROIT - ATLANTA	4	5.5	1.5	53.4%
BUFFALO @ NY JETS	-3	-0.5	2.5	52.3%
ST LOUIS @ KANSAS CITY	-7	-12.7	-5.7	51.4%
MIAMI @ JACKSONVILLE	5.5	5.9	0.4	50.0%
SAN DIEGO @ DENVER	-8	-7.7	0.3	50.0%
WASHINGTON @ DALLAS	-10	-10.4	-0.4	50.0%
OAKLAND @ CLEVELAND	-7	-4.5	2.5	50.0%
PHILADELPHIA @ ARIZONA	-2.5	-1.3	1.2	49.3%
MINNESOTA @ TAMPA BAY	-3	-7.4	-4.4	48.6%
HOUSTON @ TENNESSEE	1.5	-0.6	-2.1	48.5%

How to read the table:

• Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
• Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
• Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
• Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

2014 NFL Betting Picks - Week 7

Pick 1: Seattle -7
Pick 2: San Francisco +6.5
Pick 3: Miami +4
Pick 4: Buffalo -5.5

After spending plenty of time doing research and enjoying the games (did you witness the Denver Vegas moment?!), my wife asked that I sell the picks. She understands the value that a VP in Analytics can provide to sports investors so she's encouraging me to do so (or else). I have posted 5 Reasons Why You Want to Buy NFLpickles' Picks on the subscription page. They include my 100% guarantee, my record, experience, transparency, focus on NFL point spreads and affordable prices.

For only $199 you get all the picks until the end of the season + playoffs. These type of picks go for about $500 in other places. These places try to sell you picks in every sport you can imagine by sports fanatics and not experienced data scientists.

Get ALL 2014 NFLpickles' Point Spread Picks 100% Guarantee - If all picks go under 50% ATS, I'll give you your money back
Many of you have followed me since I started in 2007 and know my record: 4 winning seasons in the past 6 years, and one break even. All my stats by year are on the side bar and you can access every pick I've made since 2007, that's transparency. Do notice that I've kept the majority of the picks free, but premium picks are only provided to members.

We raise the bankroll this week to use 18% of bankroll split evenly across 4 games giving us a bet of $490 per game. Here is the full list of NFL betting spread predictions for week 7:

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
SEATTLE @ ST LOUIS	7	11.1	4.1	61.5%
SAN FRANCISCO @ DENVER	-6.5	-2.7	3.8	58.2%
MIAMI @ CHICAGO	-4	-1.5	2.5	58.1%
MINNESOTA @ BUFFALO	-5.5	-9.8	-4.3	58.0%
ARIZONA @ OAKLAND	4	8.8	4.8	56.7%
KANSAS CITY @ SAN DIEGO	-4	-3.0	1.0	55.5%
CLEVELAND @ JACKSONVILLE	6	8	2/0	55.3%
NY JETS @ NEW ENGLAND *	-10	-14.3	-4.3	54.3%
TENNESSEE @ WASHINGTON	-6	-7.2	-1.2	53.3%
HOUSTON @ PITTSBURGH *	-3.5	-3.7	-0.2	50.0%
NEW ORLEANS @ DETROIT	-3	-3.3	-0.3	50.0%
CAROLINA @ GREEN BAY	-7	-5.0	2.0	50.0%
CINCINNATI @ INDIANAPOLIS	-3.5	-1.5	2.0	48.3%
NY GIANTS @ DALLAS	-6.5	-10.2	-3.7	47.8%
ATLANTA @ BALTIMORE	-7	-11.0	-4.0	47.8%

How to read the table:

• Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
• Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
• Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
• Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

2014 NFL Betting Picks - Week 6

Pick 1: Indianapolis -3
Pick 2: Pittsburgh +2.5
Pick 3: San Diego -7
Pick 4: Denver -9
Pick 5: Philadelphia -2.5

Great week last week, although not perfect. Everyone tuned in to #MNF? Classic Vegas finish; I was surprised it had to go to that and Seattle didn't blow out that game earlier. San Diego shutting out the Jets is the kind of prediction that I want my models to capture. Predicting blow outs should in theory be easier. Outliers, injuries, among other factors make this a statistical hard problem.

This week we try to predict two blowouts, San Diego again and Denver (Jets weakness again). Interestingly, we also have 4 visiting teams vs only one home team. Thursday and Sunday night should be fun. Good luck everyone!

We continue using 15% of bankroll split evenly across games giving us a bet of $320 per game. Here is the full list of NFL betting spread predictions for week 6:

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
INDIANAPOLIS @ HOUSTON	3	8.7	5.7	59.7%
PITTSBURGH @ CLEVELAND	-2.5	3.1	5.6	59.0%
SAN DIEGO @ OAKLAND	7	18.9	11.9	58.4%
DENVER @ NY JETS	9	19.2	10.2	57.1%
NY GIANTS @ PHILADELPHIA	-2.5	-10.2	-7.7	57.1%
NEW ENGLAND @ BUFFALO	3	-0.4	-3.4	55.8%
BALTIMORE @ TAMPA BAY	3.5	1.9	-1.6	55.3%
SAN FRANCISCO @ ST LOUIS	3.5	6.0	2.5	52.6%
WASHINGTON @ ARIZONA	-3	-5.6	-2.6	52.1%
CAROLINA @ CINCINNATI	-7	-6.8	0.2	50.0%
CHICAGO @ ATLANTA	-3	0.6	3.6	50.0%
JACKSONVILLE @ TENNESSEE	-6	-10.0	-4.0	50.0%
GREEN BAY @ MIAMI	3.5	-4.1	-7.6	49.6%
DALLAS @ SEATTLE	-8	-11.7	-3.7	49.5%
DETROIT @ MINNESOTA	2	4.1	2.1	48.3%

How to read the table:

• Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
• Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
• Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
• Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

2014 NFL Betting Picks - Week 5

Pick 1: Seattle -7
Pick 2: Cincinnati -1.5
Pick 3: San Diego -7
Pick 4: Tennessee +1.5

What the hell is wrong with Carolina? One of the best defenses of the league last year. The team has definitely changed from last year so after two weeks in a row of losing that bet, I'll keep away from them until more data is in. Buffalo was close and don't think I should have changed that bet. I should have evaluated the Dallas #MNF and Indianapolis confidence percentage. Like my friend told me during a kids birthday parties as I checked results over my phone, it's about the long run. My response is that I get that, but it's much better to say how many winning seasons one gets.

This week we try to capitalize on the Redskins QB weakness, ride on New England's issues, keep betting our favorite pony and best ATS record Chargers, and two bad teams guessing the home team is slightly better. Cool thing is that we have SNF and MNF games.

Since we are now in week 5, we up to 15% of bankroll split evenly across games giving us a bet of $360 per game. Here is the full list of NFL betting spread predictions:

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
SEATTLE @ WASHINGTON	7	13.0	6	61.5%
CINCINNATI @ NEW ENGLAND	1.5	4.2	2.7	60.0%
NY JETS @ SAN DIEGO	-7	-19.1	-12.1	59.0%
CLEVELAND @ TENNESSEE	1.5	-4.2	-6.7	58.6%
ATLANTA @ NY GIANTS	-4	-4.9	-0.9	56.3%
ST LOUIS @ PHILADELPHIA	-7	-8.0	-1.0	54.6%
BALTIMORE @ INDIANAPOLIS	-3.5	-5.2	-1.7	54.4%
TAMPA BAY @ NEW ORLEANS	-10	-7.0	3.0	52.7%
HOUSTON @ DALLAS	-6	-12.1	-6.1	51.4%
CHICAGO @ CAROLINA	-2.5	-4.9	-2.4	50.0%
BUFFALO @ DETROIT	-7	-6.5	0.5	50.0%
ARIZONA @ DENVER	-7.5	-7.3	0.2	50.0%
MINNESOTA @ GREEN BAY	-9	-7.4	1.6	50.0%
PITTSBURGH @ JACKSONVILLE	7	4.4	-2.6	49.7%
KANSAS CITY @ SAN FRANCISCO	-6.5	-2.2	4.3	48.4%

How to read the table:

• Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
• Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
• Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
• Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

2014 NFL Betting Picks - Week 4

Pick 1: Buffalo +3
Pick 2: Carolina +3.5
Pick 3: San Diego -13.5

We were close of pulling a 3-1 but the Eagles cost us great at the end. Carolina was dissapointing, but since this blog is based on data-driven or some call it computerized picks, they are showing again this week and I'm sticking by them. Sorry for the late post, I had a little trouble updating the data yesterday. Some of you have caught on, but to know what's going on with picks you can check out my Twitter account.

This will be the last week with 12% of bankroll split evenly across games giving us a bet of $415 per game. Here is the full list of NFL betting spread predictions:

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
BUFFALO @ HOUSTON	-3	0.9	3.9	62.1%
CAROLINA @ BALTIMORE	-3.5	5.1	8.6	58.3%
JACKSONVILLE @ SAN DIEGO	-13.5	-21.8	-8.3	57.0%
TENNESSEE @ INDIANAPOLIS	-7.5	-9.8	-2.3	56.4%
PHILADELPHIA @ SAN FRANCISCO	-5	-11.1	-6.1	56.0%
NY GIANTS @ WASHINGTON	-3.5	-1.7	1.8	53.6%
ATLANTA @ MINNESOTA	3	-0.1	-3.1	52.7%
TAMPA BAY @ PITTSBURGH	-7.5	-2.5	5.0	50.0%
NEW ORLEANS @ DALLAS	3	0.4	-2.6	50.0%
MIAMI @ OAKLAND	4	1.2	-2.8	50.0%
OAKLAND @ MIAMI	-4	-7.5	-3.5	50.0%
DETROIT @ NY JETS	2	-0.6	-2.6	49.5%
GREEN BAY @ CHICAGO	1.5	-2.2	-3.7	49.5%
NEW ENGLAND @ KANSAS CITY	3.5	-6.7	-10.2	48.3%

How to read the table:

• Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
• Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
• Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
• Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.