2014 NFL Betting Picks - Week 15

Pick 1: Washington +7 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: San Diego +4.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: New England -7.5 correct NFL point spread pick

Last week our picks went 1-2. Got lucky that Minnesota scored a touchdown in overtime and pushed. Chicago was a bad bet, especially now that Marshall is out. Seattle was a good bet and Cincinnati bombed.

This week we have 3 premium picks and we are going to up the bankroll to 25%. Being at pretty much break-even level and the season approaching its end, I want to end with a bang (or a boom). This gives us a bet of $815 per game for this week. Honorable mentions that the computer-based picked were Dallas although I've already made that mistake during Thanksgiving so it sounds like a good one to shy away. Carolina and Cincinnati but both game have new QBs. Detroit looks tempting as well. That's it for now. Thank you everyone for all the constructive comments, I've been learning a lot from you guys. Thanks and good luck to everyone.

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
WASHINGTON @ NY GIANTS -7 -1.5 5.5 62.3%
DENVER @ SAN DIEGO 4.5 -1.0 -5.5 59.5%
MIAMI @ NEW ENGLAND -7.5 -15.1 -7.6 59.5%
MINNESOTA @ DETROIT -8 -8.6 -0.6 56.3%
NEW ORLEANS @ CHICAGO 3 0.8 -2.2 54.5%
PITTSBURGH @ ATLANTA 2.5 -1.8 -4.3 54.4%
OAKLAND @ KANSAS CITY -10 -15.9 -5.9 54.1%
HOUSTON @ INDIANAPOLIS -7 -9.8 -2.8 54.1%
TAMPA BAY @ CAROLINA -3.5 -5.5 -2.0 52.0%
SAN FRANCISCO @ SEATTLE -10 -10.5 0.5 50.0%
CINCINNATI @ CLEVELAND -1 6.0 7.0 50.0%
JACKSONVILLE @ BALTIMORE -14 -19.0 -5.0 49.7%
GREEN BAY @ BUFFALO 6 -3.7 -9.7 48.5%
ARIZONA @ ST LOUIS -4.5 4.5 9.0 48.2%
NY JETS @ TENNESSEE 2 1.6 -0.4 47.5%

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.


johnbart said...

I've got the following lines on the top 3:

@NYG (-7.4)
@SD (+3.6)
@NE (-8.7)

Not a whole lot of difference over the Vegas line on these games.

I'm interested in everyone's thoughts on a game like WAS@NYG. You have a divisional game between two teams that are out of the playoff hunt, no shot at going 8-8 and have coaches or players who are on the way out.

Given all those factors it seems to me like either one or both teams could just not show up for the game. I'd need to have a huge edge in the math line to consider touching a game like that on either side. How about the rest of you?

TotalBS said...

Pick Value
BUF 3.483514923
CAR 0.094094343
BAL 1.016801704
CLE 4.168948947
ATL 1.701045538
WAS 3.877920757
NE 0.551046533
HOU 2.065609609
KC 2.224976568
SD 4.548873041
TEN 2.069299231
MIN 1.576890509
SF 0.019181917
PHI 1.114982485
CHI 2.607016331
ARZ 4.903460308

RJW said...

Check out my picks for the week at nflocksmith.com

This week the lines are pretty tough

Johnbart Id take the points with the Skins, the Giants just dont deserve such a high spread when they lost to the lowly Jaguars a few weeks back

Jonathon Grant said...

Picks of top 8 players in Hilton contest (5 players tied for 9th, and I preferred using 8 over 13 people... Buffalo, Minnesota, and the Jets were popular amongst the next 5 for those interested)

NYJ-2 7-0
SF+10 6-0
TB+3.5 2-0
BUF+4.5 3-1
MIN+8 3-1

MIA+7.5 1-0
NO-3 1-0
HOU+6.5 2-1
PHI-3 3-2

johnbart said...

No picks this week?

Jaime Brugueras said...

Yes, they're coming tonight. I had the office holiday party yesterday and couldn't get to it. Probably after the TENvsJAX game so that won't be a pick.

Jonathon Grant said...

How'd your picks do last week?