Pick 2: Pittsburgh +2.5
Pick 3: San Diego -7
Pick 4: Denver -9
Pick 5: Philadelphia -2.5
Great week last week, although not perfect. Everyone tuned in to #MNF? Classic Vegas finish; I was surprised it had to go to that and Seattle didn't blow out that game earlier. San Diego shutting out the Jets is the kind of prediction that I want my models to capture. Predicting blow outs should in theory be easier. Outliers, injuries, among other factors make this a statistical hard problem.
This week we try to predict two blowouts, San Diego again and Denver (Jets weakness again). Interestingly, we also have 4 visiting teams vs only one home team. Thursday and Sunday night should be fun. Good luck everyone!
We continue using 15% of bankroll split evenly across games giving us a bet of $320 per game. Here is the full list of NFL betting spread predictions for week 6:
| Game | Vegas Line | Estimate | Prediction-Vegas | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| INDIANAPOLIS @ HOUSTON | 3 | 8.7 | 5.7 | 59.7% |
| PITTSBURGH @ CLEVELAND | -2.5 | 3.1 | 5.6 | 59.0% |
| SAN DIEGO @ OAKLAND | 7 | 18.9 | 11.9 | 58.4% |
| DENVER @ NY JETS | 9 | 19.2 | 10.2 | 57.1% |
| NY GIANTS @ PHILADELPHIA | -2.5 | -10.2 | -7.7 | 57.1% |
| NEW ENGLAND @ BUFFALO | 3 | -0.4 | -3.4 | 55.8% |
| BALTIMORE @ TAMPA BAY | 3.5 | 1.9 | -1.6 | 55.3% |
| SAN FRANCISCO @ ST LOUIS | 3.5 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 52.6% |
| WASHINGTON @ ARIZONA | -3 | -5.6 | -2.6 | 52.1% |
| CAROLINA @ CINCINNATI | -7 | -6.8 | 0.2 | 50.0% |
| CHICAGO @ ATLANTA | -3 | 0.6 | 3.6 | 50.0% |
| JACKSONVILLE @ TENNESSEE | -6 | -10.0 | -4.0 | 50.0% |
| GREEN BAY @ MIAMI | 3.5 | -4.1 | -7.6 | 49.6% |
| DALLAS @ SEATTLE | -8 | -11.7 | -3.7 | 49.5% |
| DETROIT @ MINNESOTA | 2 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 48.3% |
How to read the table:
- Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
- Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
- Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
- Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.
4 comments:
Jaime you're Detroit vs Minnesota game had the Lions favored to cover the spread but the confidence was only 48.3% How does that work? The Lions ended up covering but would you reverse the pick on all sub 50% picks?
No. Because I have team-level data, there are some situations that have low percentages because of injuries and other games that I would usually remove on a weekly basis. My trust is more on the statistical model prediction. When both prediction and confidence percent align, high percentage and strong prediction difference, those are my confident games. I only bet and encourage others to bet on the high confidence games.
I stumbled on your this year and can understand were you are coming from,but I guess you scared away a lot. However you gotta do what you feel is right. I once worked for a well know handicap service in Vegas back in the 70's and 80's
And I know the work, that goes into trying to beat a bookmaker. Anyway I appreciate what you have done keep at it man and the best of luck.
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