2014 NFL Betting Picks - Week 6

Pick 1: Indianapolis -3 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Pittsburgh +2.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: San Diego -7 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 4: Denver -9 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 5: Philadelphia -2.5 correct NFL point spread pick

Great week last week, although not perfect. Everyone tuned in to #MNF? Classic Vegas finish; I was surprised it had to go to that and Seattle didn't blow out that game earlier. San Diego shutting out the Jets is the kind of prediction that I want my models to capture. Predicting blow outs should in theory be easier. Outliers, injuries, among other factors make this a statistical hard problem.

This week we try to predict two blowouts, San Diego again and Denver (Jets weakness again). Interestingly, we also have 4 visiting teams vs only one home team. Thursday and Sunday night should be fun. Good luck everyone!

We continue using 15% of bankroll split evenly across games giving us a bet of $320 per game. Here is the full list of NFL betting spread predictions for week 6:

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
INDIANAPOLIS @ HOUSTON 3 8.7 5.7 59.7%
PITTSBURGH @ CLEVELAND -2.5 3.1 5.6 59.0%
SAN DIEGO @ OAKLAND 7 18.9 11.9 58.4%
DENVER @ NY JETS 9 19.2 10.2 57.1%
NY GIANTS @ PHILADELPHIA -2.5 -10.2 -7.7 57.1%
NEW ENGLAND @ BUFFALO 3 -0.4 -3.4 55.8%
BALTIMORE @ TAMPA BAY 3.5 1.9 -1.6 55.3%
SAN FRANCISCO @ ST LOUIS 3.5 6.0 2.5 52.6%
WASHINGTON @ ARIZONA -3 -5.6 -2.6 52.1%
CAROLINA @ CINCINNATI -7 -6.8 0.2 50.0%
CHICAGO @ ATLANTA -3 0.6 3.6 50.0%
JACKSONVILLE @ TENNESSEE -6 -10.0 -4.0 50.0%
GREEN BAY @ MIAMI 3.5 -4.1 -7.6 49.6%
DALLAS @ SEATTLE -8 -11.7 -3.7 49.5%
DETROIT @ MINNESOTA 2 4.1 2.1 48.3%

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

4 comments:

Adrian Villarreal said...

Jaime you're Detroit vs Minnesota game had the Lions favored to cover the spread but the confidence was only 48.3% How does that work? The Lions ended up covering but would you reverse the pick on all sub 50% picks?

Jaime Brugueras said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Jaime Brugueras said...

No. Because I have team-level data, there are some situations that have low percentages because of injuries and other games that I would usually remove on a weekly basis. My trust is more on the statistical model prediction. When both prediction and confidence percent align, high percentage and strong prediction difference, those are my confident games. I only bet and encourage others to bet on the high confidence games.

Rocky said...

I stumbled on your this year and can understand were you are coming from,but I guess you scared away a lot. However you gotta do what you feel is right. I once worked for a well know handicap service in Vegas back in the 70's and 80's
And I know the work, that goes into trying to beat a bookmaker. Anyway I appreciate what you have done keep at it man and the best of luck.