2014 NFL Betting Picks - Week 6

Pick 1: Indianapolis -3 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Pittsburgh +2.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: San Diego -7 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 4: Denver -9 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 5: Philadelphia -2.5 correct NFL point spread pick

Great week last week, although not perfect. Everyone tuned in to #MNF? Classic Vegas finish; I was surprised it had to go to that and Seattle didn't blow out that game earlier. San Diego shutting out the Jets is the kind of prediction that I want my models to capture. Predicting blow outs should in theory be easier. Outliers, injuries, among other factors make this a statistical hard problem.

This week we try to predict two blowouts, San Diego again and Denver (Jets weakness again). Interestingly, we also have 4 visiting teams vs only one home team. Thursday and Sunday night should be fun. Good luck everyone!

We continue using 15% of bankroll split evenly across games giving us a bet of $320 per game. Here is the full list of NFL betting spread predictions for week 6:

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
INDIANAPOLIS @ HOUSTON 3 8.7 5.7 59.7%
PITTSBURGH @ CLEVELAND -2.5 3.1 5.6 59.0%
SAN DIEGO @ OAKLAND 7 18.9 11.9 58.4%
DENVER @ NY JETS 9 19.2 10.2 57.1%
NY GIANTS @ PHILADELPHIA -2.5 -10.2 -7.7 57.1%
NEW ENGLAND @ BUFFALO 3 -0.4 -3.4 55.8%
BALTIMORE @ TAMPA BAY 3.5 1.9 -1.6 55.3%
SAN FRANCISCO @ ST LOUIS 3.5 6.0 2.5 52.6%
WASHINGTON @ ARIZONA -3 -5.6 -2.6 52.1%
CAROLINA @ CINCINNATI -7 -6.8 0.2 50.0%
CHICAGO @ ATLANTA -3 0.6 3.6 50.0%
JACKSONVILLE @ TENNESSEE -6 -10.0 -4.0 50.0%
GREEN BAY @ MIAMI 3.5 -4.1 -7.6 49.6%
DALLAS @ SEATTLE -8 -11.7 -3.7 49.5%
DETROIT @ MINNESOTA 2 4.1 2.1 48.3%

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.


Adrian Villarreal said...

Jaime you're Detroit vs Minnesota game had the Lions favored to cover the spread but the confidence was only 48.3% How does that work? The Lions ended up covering but would you reverse the pick on all sub 50% picks?

Jaime Brugueras said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Jaime Brugueras said...

No. Because I have team-level data, there are some situations that have low percentages because of injuries and other games that I would usually remove on a weekly basis. My trust is more on the statistical model prediction. When both prediction and confidence percent align, high percentage and strong prediction difference, those are my confident games. I only bet and encourage others to bet on the high confidence games.

Rocky said...

I stumbled on your this year and can understand were you are coming from,but I guess you scared away a lot. However you gotta do what you feel is right. I once worked for a well know handicap service in Vegas back in the 70's and 80's
And I know the work, that goes into trying to beat a bookmaker. Anyway I appreciate what you have done keep at it man and the best of luck.