2014 NFL Betting Picks - Week 14

Pick 1: Cincinnati -3.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Seattle +1 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: Chicago +3.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 4: Minnesota -6 PUSH

Last week our picks went 3-2. The San Diego pick and win was a classic Vegas moment. Down by 9 and everything went perfectly for them to get the win. On the other hand, New England's missed field goal was also classic but didn't go in our favor. I wasn't even sure they would go for the field goal, they did and saw the opportunity, but then the miss changed everything. Dallas was a bad pick in retrospect, but Denver was almost an obvious pick. Now that the RB can pick up when Payton doesn't deliver gives me more confidence in the Broncos. I need the models to better predict the blowouts. This week was the Rams beating the Raiders by 52 points and the Colts cruising at home against the Redskins.

This week we have 4 premium picks starting with the Thursday night game at Soldier Field and the rest. Honorary mentions for picks that didn't make the premium cut were the two big underdogs. Atlanta's playing the red hot Packers at Lambeau on Monday night. That's a hard pick to make. Carolina is one of the worst teams in my opinion and I've lost enough bets on them this year so I'm out of that one too. This week we keep the bankroll to use 20% split evenly across the 4 NFL games, giving us a bet of about $520 per game. Below are the computer-based NFL point spread predictions.

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
PITTSBURGH @ CINCINNATI -3.5 -10.1 -6.6 61.0%
SEATTLE @ PHILADEPHIA -1 7.5 8.5 60.1%
DALLAS @ CHICAGO 3.5 0.1 -3.4 58.6%
NY JETS @ MINNESOTA -6 -7 -1 58.3%
ATLANTA @ GREEN BAY -12.5 -8.8 3.7 56.3%
CAROLINA @ NEW ORLEANS -10 -6.8 3.2 55.3%
BUFFALO @ DENVER -10 -15.4 -5.4 54.1%
TAMPA BAY @ DETROIT -10 -11.1 -1.1 54.0%
INDIANAPOLIS @ CLEVELAND 4.5 12.2 7.7 53.9%
NEW ENGLAND @ SAN DIEGO 4 6.5 2.5 52.5%
BALTIMORE @ MIAMI -3 -4.3 -1.3 50.0%
KANSAS CITY @ ARIZONA -1.5 -0.3 1.2 50.0%
ST LOUIS @ WASHINGTON 3 -2.9 -5.9 49.9%
NY GIANTS @ TENNESSEE 1.5 -0.1 -1.6 49.5%
SAN FRANCISCO @ OAKLAND 9 6.9 -2.1 48.5%
HOUSTON @ JACKSONVILLE 5.5 5.9 0.4 48.2%

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.


TotalBS said…
Although I would only consider playing games at 3+ more value, we were leaning to the right side very nicely last week:

Last Weeks Power Rating Results:
Value PICK
0.2 PHI - W
0.5 SEA - W
0.8 CHI - L
1.2 OAK - L
1.7 NO - W
4.2 TB - W
2.5 MIN - W
3.2 WAS - L
3.6 HOU - W
1.1 CLE - W
2.2 JAX - W
1.7 SD - W
0.7 ATL - W
.3 NE - L
5.6 KC - L
2.3 NYJ - W

This week personally I am all over Seattle.

Week 14 Power Rating Plays:
Pick Value
CHI 1.23
CLE 4.8
TB 2.38
BAL 0.17
HOU 1.22
CIN 1.03
WAS 4.99
MIN 0.68
NO 0.1
ARZ 2.4
BUF 1.65
OAK 4.16
PHI 2.09
SD 4.5
ATL 3.44

Good luck everyone.
johnbart said…
Nice Week!

I think your assessment of DEN is still a bit rosy. If you look at the stats the YPPA for Manning was 5.1 and their red zone efficiency was horrible settling for 5 field goals. If you take out the randomness of the muffed punt you end up with a totally different looking game. I'm not saying KC ends up winning but the game was closer than the score indicates. GB or NE win by 30+ in that game.

For this week I have the following lines on the top 4:

@CIN (-2.7)
@PHI (-4.1)
@CHI (+3.5)
@MIN (-7.5)

Best of luck all!
Jaime said…
TotalBS, how do you get the top 4 picks from the Hilton contest? Can you provide URL and brief instructions?
TotalBS said…
Go to TheSpread.com, there is a menu item for the Hilton Contest.

They will list all the top 10 (or so) contestants.

You will notice that of the 5 picks, there are certain games where for whatever reason the majority of these top players like the game. And if they like it, you can be pretty certain they know something...
Unknown said…
Won't be available until Saturday afternoon though
TotalBS said…
Correct, usually up by 3:00 EST...
Unknown said…
Popular picks amongst Top 9 in Hilton pool:

CLE+3.5 6-0
STL-2.5 5-0
NE-3.5 3-0
MIA-2.5 4-1
NYG PK 2-0
NYJ+6 2-0
BUF+10 2-0
SEA+1 2-0
ATL+12.5 2-0

NO-9.5 1-0
HOU-5.5 2-1
DET-9.5 2-1
ARI PK 2-1

Interestingly, the Cincy/Pitts game was selected by 6 players, but split 3-3.
Jaime said…
Cool thanks for sharing. I'll put the top 4 as the strategy to continue to keep track. I'm going into Sunday 0-1. Admittedly, I should have stayed away from the Bears game probably all bears game. There's that slight of hope that has now been completely crashed. Emotions are hard to ignore.
Unknown said…
Head north a few hours. There's plenty of hope there :)